Housing Market Charts March 2014

Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS sales for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

TorontoMLS SalesMonthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison

2011 2012 2013 2014

Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS new listings for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

TorontoMLS New ListingsMonthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison

2011 2012 2013 2014

Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month. When the SNLR moves higher, annual average price growth generally increases often at a rate well above inflation. When the SNLR moves lower, annual average price growth generally declines and can become negative.

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.001.10

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

TorontoMLS Sales-to-New Listings RatioMonthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison

2011 2012 2013 2014

Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS average home price for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

TorontoMLS Average Resale Home PriceMonthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison

2011 2012 2013 2014

Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS sales since January 1995. The blue line shows actual sales. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend.

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

TorontoMLS SalesMonthly Time Series with Trend Line

Actual MLS Sales

Trend (12-Month Moving Average)

Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS new listings since January 1995. The blue line shows actual new listings. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend.

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,000

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

TorontoMLS New ListingsMonthly Time Series with Trend Line

Actual MLS New Listings

Trend (12-Month Moving Average)

Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS average price since January 1995. The blue line shows the actual average price. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual average price must occur to change the direction of the trend.

175,000

225,000

275,000

325,000

375,000

425,000

475,000

525,000

575,000

625,000

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

TorontoMLS Average PriceMonthly Time Series with Trend Line

Actual MLS Average Price

Trend (12-Month Moving Average)

Explanation: This chart plots the monthly sales-to-new listings ratio (blue line) with year-over-year average annual per cent price change (brown line). When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves higher, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends higher. When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves lower, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends lower.

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Average P

rice An

nu

al Per C

ent C

han

ge(B

row

n Lin

e)Sa

les-

to-N

ew L

isti

ngs

Rat

io(B

lue

Lin

e)

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

TorontoMLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Compared to Average Annual Per Cent Change in Home Price

Sales-to-New Listings Ratio

Average Price Annual Per Cent Change

Explanation: This chart plots the share of average household income that goes toward mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities for the average priced home in the GTA subject to the following assumptions: 1. Average annual or year-to-date home price as reported by TREB 2. 20 per cent down payment 3. Average 5-year fixed mortgage rate (Statistics Canada); 25-year amortization 4. Average property tax rate reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending 5. Average utilities cost reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending and components of the Consumer Price Index 6. Average household income reported by the Census of Canada. Years in between Censuses estimated using interpolation (years up to 2005) or annual growth in average weekly earnings reported by

Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey (2006 onward).

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada

TREB Affordability Indicator Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest, Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home