This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Carl Claunch

Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2013

CONSUMERIZATION

The Nexus of Disruptive Forces

"Big"Context

Extreme Behavior

Pervasive Access

Global Class Delivery

Key Issues• What will have the biggest potential for significant impact

over the next three years?• Which technologies or trends will drive significant change or

disruption?• Are there changes or tipping points occurring now or over the

next one to two years that make the technology newly strategic or applicable to a wider market?

1. Analytics and BI2. Mobile technologies3. Cloud computing4. Collaboration

Gartner Global CIO Survey 2012 (2,336 CIOs)

CIO Technology Priorities 2012

How Do Technology Trends Impact the Human, Organization and IT Experiences?

Human Experience

OrganizationExperience IT

Dep

t. E

xper

ienc

e

Trend Impact Assessment

1. Mobile Devices Battles2. Mobile Applications & HTML53. Personal Cloud4. Internet of Things5. Hybrid IT & Cloud Computing6. Strategic Big Data7. Actionable Analytics8. Mainstream In-Memory Computing9. Integrated Ecosystems10. Enterprise App Stores

Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2013

Mobile Device Battles:Prepare for Heterogeneity

• Mobile experience eclipses the desktop experience.

• Consumerization drives tablets into organizations. - BYOD and BYOA increases- MDM is not the only option

for securing mobile devices

• Mobile strategy is a process that must be maintained and refreshed

• Cloud and mobile are mutually reinforcing trends

• No platform, form factor or technology dominates.- Windows' share shrinks.

A Huge Growth in Smart Devices …

… Leads to a Major Installed Base Shift

PC OS

Mobile OS

billion

2012 2016

Feature Phones

Smart Phones

Mobile PC’s

Tablets

Feature Phones

Smart Phones

Mobile PC’s

Tablets

Unit Share 50%

2014

PC OS

Mobile OS

Mobile Device Battles:Microsoft Big Bet With Windows 8

• Can Microsoft usurp Google as the hardware OEM favorite?• Will a enterprise-friendly Windows 8 be enough to succeed?• Can Microsoft establish a robust app and content ecosystem and an

elegant interface attractive to individual consumers?• Will the crossover notebook/tablet be compelling?

1981

1993

DOS Era

2001

DOS

Windows on DOS

Windows 9X

Windows NT Era

2012

Windows RT Era

Win8Win9

WinNT

Windows 2000

XPVistaWin7Win8

Smartphone and Tablet Forecast

2012 2013 2014 2015 20160%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Android

Smartphone Tablet

MicrosoftiOS

• New expectations for usability, appearance and behavior

• The experience flows to where you are and what you are doing in context

• Multichannel integration and interactions becomes a requirement

• Development challenges abound

- New design skills- Cloud/Client

architecture- Complex apps- Native apps vs. HTML5

Mobile Applications and HTML5:Driving the Future User Experience

More InputsMore Places

More Actions

Mobile Applications and HTML5:Choosing Mobile Architectures

Native Special Hybrid HTML5 Message No Client

User Experience

Rich FunctionAD Cost

DeviceAPIs?Out of

Signal?FlexibleSecurityPlatform

RangeAgility

High/good Low/weak

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

Personal Cloud:Moving Beyond Personal Computing• A collection of services

and a representation of your digital life

- Embraces multiple devices• The cloud is where users

center their digital lives. They are in control.

- Cloud storage for apps, content and preferences

- Cloud sync across devices- Mobile with seamless shift

between computing and communicating

• Contextually aware and operationally obviousapps

Personal

Prof

essi

onal

Community

Family

SchoolSchedule

Tax Info.NewsSports

Standings E-Gov.

ShoppingSchool

E-MailRSSMemories

Music

Hobbies

FinancialInfo.

Banking

Banking

Broad-band

Cell

Wi-Fi

TV CalendarMemories

MedicalFinancialHome

Security

IM E-MailPersonalRecords

Corp.Archives

Training

Pro

duct

ion

Dat

aMeetingRecords

Work at

Home

CorpApps

Benefits

Conferencing

VOIP

LAN

Wi-FiCell

FacebookTwitter

SMS

ContentServices

CommsDevices

Your Digital Life

2013-15: Mobile centric consumer and tactical organizational app store2014-16: Mainstream organizational app store - packaged and portal options2014/2018: Bring mobile and cloud together

‘Enterprise’ App Stores:The Future Portal and Delivery Model• Organizational App Stores are strategic for

governing cloud and mobile use in a consumer-driven world

• Consumer-Centric Requirements- App discovery/search and user choice- Install/update, trials, social network

• IT-Centric Requirement- License management and distribution- Verification testing, reporting- Approve, publish and control install/uninstall

• Challenges- App stores intersect multiple IT markets- Consumer store quality, support and licensing- Difficulty embracing "apptrepreneurs," user choice

and IT role as market manager

Potential New Entrants

IBM

Action Plan

The Internet of Things:It Is Already Here

Cameras and microphones widely deployedCameras and microphones widely deployed

New routes to client service via intelligent objects

New routes to client service via intelligent objects

Content and services via connected products

Content and services via connected products

Everything has a URLEverything has a URL

Remote sensing of objects and environment

Remote sensing of objects and environment

Augmented realityAugmented reality

Situational decision support

Situational decision support

Building & Infrastructure Management

Building & Infrastructure Management

Over 50% of Internet connections are things2011: 15+ billion permanent, 50+ billion intermittent2020: 30+ billion permanent, >200 billion intermittent

Audio

GPRS Wi-Fi NFC

Higher-resolution display

LTE

Flash

The Internet of Things:Impact and Implications

• CIOs will first feel the impact of IoT as OT and IT convergence

- By 2015, in more than 70% of orgs, a single executive will oversee all Internet-connected entities

- Focus on orchestration, not ownership• New processes, information insights and

service models become possible- Digital supply chain- Sensing and controlling- Usage-based insurance or taxes- City information services — "smart" city

• Consider IoT implications- Event streams and objects as "users"- Drives need for big data strategies- Extreme heterogeneity — device

capability, OS/API, legacy platforms

Start now…Start simple. Ask what if?

The Internet of ThingsBecomes the Internet of Everything

# of people here# people visitedWait timeReservation service

LocationDiagnosticsMovies watched

Time to green# of cars: no stop# of cars: stopped

Social networkLocationCalendar/JournalCredit history

ScheduleExpected disruptions

Places

Information

Things

People

Who will be responsible for delivery of cloud services?

Cloud Computing:Hybrid, Managed and Brokered

Secure, Manage and Govern Hybrid Cloud and Hybrid IT

Adopt cloud techniques and/or build private cloud environments

Strategic Models for Cloud Service Consumption

Adopt New Application Design and Architecture for Cloud

Make Externally Facing Services Cloud Services

2012-2014

2010 +

2013-2015

Cloud Strategy Elements

Mainstream Focus

Challenges

Ben

efit

Low and Manageable

High orUnmanageable

Hig

h an

d C

lear

Low

or

Unc

erta

in

Avoid

EmbracePublic

Experiment

ConsiderPrivate

Cloud Decision Framework

Resource Management

Service Management

Resources

Access Management

Service Optimization

Private Cloud Elements

IT as a Service BrokerEnterprise

ITCloud Services Broker

Private Svcs.

Public & Comm. Svcs.

Legacy Svcs.

Public & Comm. Svcs.(Cloud Mgmt. Platform)

Strategic Big Data:Moving Beyond Isolated Projects

Perishability Fidelity

Validation Linking

Classification Contracts

Technology Pervasive Use

Velocity Volume

Variety Complexity

"Big data" is high-volume, velocity and variety information assets that demand cost-effective, innovative forms of information processing

for enhanced insight and decision making.

• Consider nontraditional data types and external data sources- GPS and sensors, weather service

or geologic survey data, traffic and roadwork feeds, social graphs

• Hadoop and NoSQL gain momentum

• Big data as a transformational architecture vs. isolated project

• homogeneous RDBMS model replaced with heterogeneous fabric

• Centralized model replaced with distributed "logical" model

Strategic Big Data:Big Data Meets Social

• Social Graph• Intent Graph• Consumption

Graph• Interest Graph• Mobile Graph

Consideration

Selection

Consumption

Awareness

Fulfillment

Support

Loyalty andPromotion

Social and Mobile ("Like")

Relevant Graph

Interest and Mobile

Intent and Mobile ("Want")

Payment and Mobile

Social

Social and Mobile

Social

The Consumer Funnel Five Richest Big Data Graphs on the Web

Strategic Big Data:The Future Model of the Data Warehouse

• Single EDW is a concept of the past — never achieved

• New DBMS and file systems emerging to handle specialized data types and very large detail data

• XML and content not moving into DBMS for text analytics

• Managing petabytes of data in a single DBMS is difficult and not productive

• Data needed for CEP and analytic applications requiring zero latency will be persisted in in-memory DBMSs

MDM

CEP

In-MemoryDBMS

Complex Data Types

Column-StoreDBMS

CloudDBMS

Data inHDFS

Content& XML

We will abandon the old models based on the desire to implement for high-value

analytic applications.

The Logical Data Warehouse

Actionable Analytics:Driven by Mobile, Social and Big Data Forces

• Cloud, packaged analytics and big data accelerates in 2013-14

• Real-time operational intelligence supports intelligent operations by the organization

• Usage emphasizes decision management and optimization

• Man-machine partnership emerges to enable new value

• Systems shift from computing and aggregation to reasoning, learning and acting

• Search and analytics become more intertwined

• Convergence of analytic trends drives new value

FROMFROM TOTO

Offline In-line embedded

Shifting Analytic FocusShifting Analytic Focus

Explanatory Predictive

Simple Structured

Complex Structure

Individualistic Collaborative

Historical Real Time

Static Rules and

Reports

Dynamic Rules Feeds and Messages

Specialist Consumer

In-Memory Computing: Reaching the Mainstream

In-Memory Data Mgmt.

In-MemoryDBMS

In-MemoryData Grid

High-Performance Messaging

Infrastructure

In-Memory App Platforms

Complex Event

ProcessingIn-Memory Analytics

In-Memory Application

Server

In-Memory-Enabled Applications

Memory-"Intensive" Computing Platform(DRAM, Flash, SSD, Multicore, Infiniband, Clusters, Grid, Cloud)

• Changes expectations, design and architecture

• Key opportunities- Boost performance and

response time- Enable real-time self-

service BI data exploration

- Enable elastic scale- Combine transactional

and analytical- Support big data

• Overcrowded and fragmented market slowly converging

• Focus on DBMS, data grid, analytics and CEP

End-to-End Ecosystems- Vendor-led model extending from

the client through app. providers- Promises secure and appliance

like mode for client devices

Integrated Ecosystems: Simplification, Optimization and SecurityAppliances

- Integrated hardware, software & services to address a workload

- Ease deployment & configuration and optimize performance

- No one appliance does it all

App/Cloud/Mobile Marketplaces

ServiceProvider

Service Provider

Service Provider

Serv

ice

Con

sum

er

Faci

litat

e/M

anag

e

Physical Virtual Hybrid

Server-Centric Appliances

End-to-End Managed Ecosystems

App StoreClient Content/App Provider

Marketplaces and Brokerages- Facilitate purchase, consumption,

and/or use of services or apps- May provide a foundation for app.

development and runtime

The Bottom Line• Mobile-centric trends and technologies increasingly define the

client environment and the core end-user application experience.

• Social networking and a contextual experience will permeate application design and interfaces across all target users.

• Information strategies must deal with data volume, velocity, variety and complexity exploiting new models to access, analyze, visualize and communicate patterns and insights.

• Cloud is becoming a mainstream computing style and delivery option with hybrid cloud, cloud brokerage and new delivery, management and security options accelerating adoption.

• A Nexus Strategy is more than separate mobile, social, information and cloud strategies.

Recommended Gartner Research iPad and Beyond: The Media Tablet in Business

David A. Willis (G00229639)

Hype Cycle for Mobile Device Technologies, 2012Tuong Huy Nguyen and Carolina Milanesi (G00234209)

The Internet of Things Is ComingJohn Mahoney and Hung LeHong (G00219075)

The Impact of App Stores on Your Application StrategyDennis Gaughan and Ian Finley (G00213351)

Understanding the Logical Data Warehouse: The Emerging PracticeMark A. Beyer and Roxane Edjalli (G00234996)

The Importance of 'Big Data': A DefinitionMark A. Beyer and Douglas Laney (G00235055)

Who's Who in Collaborative Decision MakingRita L. Sallam (G00214928)

Hadoop and MapReduce: Big Data AnalyticsMarcus Collins (G00208798)

How Flash Memory in Servers Delivers Higher Value as a Uniquely Addressable Memory TypeCarl Claunch (G00218040)

Hype Cycle for Server Technologies, 2012George J. Weiss and Mike Chuba (G00230822)

Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing, 2012David Mitchell Smith (G00230930)

For more information, stop by Experience Gartner Research Zone or e-mail us at solutioncentral@gartner.com.

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Carl Claunch

Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2013