# 0091-007

May 2013

International High School, San Francisco

TOK ORAL PRESENTATION

ANDREW B

SUBSTANTIVE REAL-LIFE SITUATION

Human Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

• Complexity

• Scientific understanding and consensus

• Political controversies

• What can be done?

DEFINING ONE OR MORE RELEVANT KNOWLEDGE ISSUES:

How effectively can Reason as a Way of Knowing (in particular cold, hard logic) tackle a complex scientific issue like global warming?

“Del rigor en la ciencia”,

by Jorge Luis Borges

INTRODUCTION… PERSONAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE TOPICESS * BIO HL* GLOBAL CITIZEN* DAD

CLIMATE MODELS WITH MULTIPLE VARIABLES

Our most sophisticated models are necessarily simplifications; no matter how sophisticated:

What is being included what is left out ?

What assumptions are made?

What is the predictive power?

Harder than predicting avalanches but easier than predicting earthquakes

THE THREE RULES FOR TOK MAPS• The map is not the territory but only a

representation

• No map can represent all aspects of the territory

• Every map reflects the mapmaker’s point of view

CONTROVERSYCONTENTION

SLEEP OF REASON?

GREG CRAVEN’S 2 X 2 DECISION GRIDHTTP://WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=ZORV8WWIADQ

CONCLUSION THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE ROOTED IN A LOGIC TRUTH TABLE

• IB BIOLOGY CORE 5.2.4 Outline the precautionary principle.

The precautionary principle holds that, if the effects of a human-induced change would be very large, perhaps catastrophic, those responsible for the change must prove that it will not do harm before proceeding. This is the reverse of the normal situation, where those who are concerned about the change would have to prove that it will do harm in order to prevent such changes going ahead… If the possible consequences of rapid global warming are devastating enough, preventive measures are justified even if it is far from certain that rapid global warming will result from current human activities

REFERENCES•

• Greg CravenThe Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See (Uploaded 2007) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ

• Accessed 1/13/2004

• EnviroMedia Research: Only 3 Percent of Americans Don’t Believe in Climate Change 2009

• http://www.enviromedia.com/enviroblog/?p=1023

• Accessed 1/13/2004

• Global warming projections

• http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:Global_Warming_Predictions_png

• Accessed 1/13/2004

• AL Gore

• http://www.algore.com/

• Accessed 1/13/2004

DISCUSSION…?