Tok Oral Presentation on Global Warming

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Can we transcend the problem of knowing with precision the extent of the dangers of Global Warming by logic alone?


  • 1. # 0091-007 May 2013 International High School, San Francisco TOK ORAL PRESENTATION ANDREW B

2. SUBSTANTIVE REAL-LIFE SITUATION Human Enhanced Greenhouse Effect Complexity Scientific understanding and consensus Political controversies What can be done? 3. DEFINING ONE OR MORE RELEVANT KNOWLEDGE ISSUES: How effectively can Reason as a Way of Knowing (in particular cold, hard logic) tackle a complex scientific issue like global warming? 4. Del rigor en la ciencia, by Jorge Luis Borges 5. INTRODUCTION PERSONAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE TOPIC ESS * BIO HL* GLOBAL CITIZEN* DAD 6. CLIMATE MODELS WITH MULTIPLE VARIABLES Our most sophisticated models are necessarily simplifications; no matter how sophisticated: What is being included what is left out ? What assumptions are made? What is the predictive power? Harder than predicting avalanches but easier than predicting earthquakes 7. THE THREE RULES FOR TOK MAPS The map is not the territory but only a representation No map can represent all aspects of the territory Every map reflects the mapmakers point of view 8. CONTROVER SY CONTENTION 9. SLEEP OF REASON? 10. GREG CRAVENS 2 X 2 DECISION GRID HTTP://WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=ZORV8WWIADQ 11. CONCLUSION THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE ROOTED IN A LOGIC TRUTH TABLE IB BIOLOGY CORE 5.2.4 Outline the precautionary principle. The precautionary principle holds that, if the effects of a human-induced change would be very large, perhaps catastrophic, those responsible for the change must prove that it will not do harm before proceeding. This is the reverse of the normal situation, where those who are concerned about the change would have to prove that it will do harm in order to prevent such changes going ahead If the possible consequences of rapid global warming are devastating enough, preventive measures are justified even if it is far from certain that rapid global warming will result from current human activities 12. REFERENCES Greg Craven The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See (Uploaded 2007) Accessed 1/13/2004 EnviroMedia Research: Only 3 Percent of Americans Dont Believe in Climate Change 2009 Accessed 1/13/2004 Global warming projections ons_png Accessed 1/13/2004 AL Gore Accessed 1/13/2004 13. ?