timing of usap ship-based resupply at mcmurdo. mcmurdo
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Timing Of USAP Ship-Based Resupply at McMurdo
McMurdo
ODEN Route
McMurdo
VladimirIgnatyukRoute
ODEN Route
Tanker Route
McMurdo
VladimirIgnatyukRoute
ODEN Route
Tanker Route
Cargo Ship Route
McMurdo
VladimirIgnatyukRoute
ODEN Route
Tanker Route
Cargo Ship Route
Southern Ocean
McMurdo
VladimirIgnatyukRoute
Damaged Containers
Destroyed Winches
Icing
Southern Ocean: Vigorous Storms
ODEN Route
Tanker Route
Cargo Ship Route
Southern Ocean
Ross Sea
McMurdo
VladimirIgnatyukRoute
% Pack Ice Cover on 5 February
2003 2006
20072004
2005 2008
2009
10 of 11 years open
Ross Sea: Select time for passage when open water corridor exists
2010
2011
2012
2013
ODEN Route
Tanker Route
Cargo Ship Route
Southern Ocean
McMurdo Sound
Ross Sea
McMurdo
VladimirIgnatyukRoute
McMurdo Sound: Fast Ice Blockade
Optimization for Ship Time
Southern OceanSelect time for passage when storms are less likelyUse state of the art weather information to time crossingEnsure ship suitability for withstanding storms
Ross SeaSelect time for passage when open water corridor existsUse state of the art ice information to route ships through iceProvide icebreaker escort
McMurdo SoundSelect time for passage when ice edge at maximum southern extentSelect time for passage when ice is at its weakestProvide icebreaker escort
% Pack Ice Cover
18 Jan 2009
Ross Sea: Use state of the art ice information to route ships through ice
Ross Sea: Provide icebreaker escort
McMurdo Sound: Select time for passage when ice edge at maximum southern extent
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
10/2
3
10/3
0
11/6
11/1
3
11/2
0
11/2
7
12/4
12/1
1
12/1
8
12/2
5
1/1
1/8
1/15
1/22
1/29 2/5
2/12
2/19
2/26 3/5
3/12
3/19
3/26 4/2
Date
Ice
Ed
ge
Dis
tan
ce f
rom
Hu
t P
oin
t (n
m;
No
rth
is p
osi
tive
)
1956 - 20012002 - 20042005 - 20062006 - 20072007 - 20082008 - 2009
15 January
14-nm ice extent
McMurdo Sound: Select time for passage when ice edge at maximum southern extent
McMurdo Sound Sea Ice Thicknessat Location of Sea Ice Runway
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
22-Jun 12-Jul 01-Aug 21-Aug 10-Sep 30-Sep 20-Oct 09-Nov 29-Nov 19-Dec 08-Jan
Th
ickn
ess
(in
ches
)
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
87
88
8990
9192
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
03
04
02
Multi-year Progressions1993-19951998-2004
0506
07
McMurdo Sound Sea Ice Temperaturesat Location of Sea Ice Runway
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
22-Jun 12-Jul 01-Aug 21-Aug 10-Sep 30-Sep 20-Oct 09-Nov 29-Nov 19-Dec 08-Jan
Tem
per
atu
re (
deg
rees
F)
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
9596
97
98
99
00
01
03
04
02
Multi-year Progressions1993-19951998-2004
05
06
07
First Year Sea Ice
McMurdo Sound: Select time for passage when ice is at its weakest
Determination of Optimal Window for McMurdo Vessel Resupply Operations
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10/15 10/29 11/12 11/26 12/10 12/24 1/7 1/21 2/4 2/18 3/4 3/18 4/1 4/15
Date
Av
erag
e D
ista
nc
e N
ort
h f
rom
Win
ter
Qu
arte
rs B
ay
(nm
)
Trendline for Ave. Sea Ice Extent North of McMurdo
Probability of Ice-Free Corridor through Ross Sea
90
30
40
50
60
70
80
10
20
0
Pro
bab
ility
of
Op
en S
hip
pin
g C
orr
ido
r th
rou
gh
Ro
ss
Sea
(%
)
Current McMurdo Resupply Window (26 Jan-12 Feb)
Ice at Weakest Ice Growth
Summary of earliest arrival considerations:
• No earlier than ~5 December for arrival of icebreaker (based on strength of McMurdo Sound ice)
• No earlier than ~15 January for arrival of icebreaker (based on extent of McMurdo Sound ice)
• No earlier than ~25 January for first supply ship (based on Ross Sea pack ice)
27 January for First Ship Arrival
Summary of latest departure:
• No later than late April (based on northern growth of McMurdo Sound fast ice edge)
• No later than middle March (based on shipping channel re-freezing)
• No later than than ~14 February (based on probability of open water in Ross Sea)
14 February for Last Ship Departure
Timing of USAP Ship-Based Resupply at McMurdo