Time-ShiftingKate RoemerDec. 6, 2004

Introduction• Time-shifted viewing

– When a broadcast signal is recorded to be viewed at a later time

– Changes the broadcast model from synchronous to asynchronous communication

– Marks a significant power shift from broadcasters to viewers

– Interferes with traditional spot advertising

• Supervening social necessity– Viewers want to watch television on their

own time table

• Time-shifting technologies– VCR, the past– DVR, the present– VoD, a picture of the future

VCR - diffusion• One of the fasted adoption rates in the history of

consumer electronics– What drove diffusion?

• Competition drove prices to near cost• Growth of home video industry

• High points in VCR development history– 1950s: Television stations and networks used video

tape technology– 1963: The Neiman Marcus catalog offered the

Ampex VTR (video tape recorder) for a mere $30,000

– 1975: Sony introduces Betamax, the first 1/2” tape with one hour recording capability, for $2,300 with a TV

– 1977: first VHS offering, with 2 hour recording capacity

– 1988: Sony begins manufacturing VHS VCRs • Beta vs. VHS

• Why did VHS win?– Strong manufacturing partners– Longer recording capacity– Large number of devices and lower cost

VCR – law of suppression

• The brakes– Prohibitive costs early on– Legal action

•The “Betamax” case– 1976: Universal Studios and Disney

sued Sony for contributory copyright infringement

– The case bounced through appeals courts with judges ruling both ways

– 1984: The Supreme court decided in favor of Sony, saying home recording is “fair use” and time-shifting expands public access thus benefiting society

VCR – avoiding advertising• Zipping: Fast forwarding

through commercials– Inhibits advertising impact– Doesn’t completely eliminate

impact• Viewers might pay closer attention to

zipped ads to avoid zipping into programming

• Advertisements are archived along with programming when recorded

• Entertainment industry ignored ad avoidance issues with VCR– Poor usability for time-shifting

• Blinking 12:00

– Huge success of home video market

The DVR – time-shifting goes digital

• A super powered VCR– DVR surpasses VCR in usability

• Simple interface– Interactive program guides– Collaborative filtering

• No tapes for storage• Digital storage opens new options for

manipulation

• Devices and services– ReplayTV – TiVo– Cable and satellite are entering the

game with their own DVRs

DVR - diffusion• DVR diffusion mimics the VCR

– Competition is driving awareness and reducing costs•Some cable providers will include

a free DVR with digital service

– Wide range of available devices•Stand alone• Integrated with cable or satellite

receiver• Integrated with DVD burner

– Legal action from the entertainment industry

DVR - suppression• The brakes

– Frequently considered a redundant technology

– Hollywood re-raises legal questions brought up in the Betamax case

• 2001: A group studios sue SonicBlue for copyright infringement

– SonicBlue’s ReplayTV allowed peer-to-peer program sharing and automatic commercial block elimination

• A group of ReplayTV users counter sued• Both cases were dropped when SonicBlue

declared bankruptcy and DNNA dropped the controversial features when it started distributing ReplayTV units

– Possible legislation to prevent zipping

• Intelectual Property Protection Act currently before Congress

DVR – threat to advertising income• Primary purpose of the DVR is

time-shifting– More ad avoidance options

• Zipping• 30 second skip• Commercial block elimination

– Ease of use and more options increases ad avoidance behavior

• DVRs can benefit advertisers– Offer space for long form

advertisements– Sell aggregate data on viewer habits– TiVo will soon be tagging

commercials to run billboards during zipping

The next time-shift

• Video on demand (VoD)– Streaming and non-streaming– High cost

•VoD fees are in addition to already high cable bills

– Limited content available

Time-shifting in the future

• What will determine the future success of time-shifting?– Financial viability

•Advertising revenue•Subscription income

– Demand•Possible alternative to cable ala cart

– Usability

Questions?