International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal

Transboundary Observation Programme on Water and Hazards to the Third Pole

Environment

Hua Ouyang

Tibetan Plateau as Asian water tower

.Xiangde Xu et al.: World Water Tower, an atmospheric perspective. Geophysical Research Letters ,2008.

The ‘Third Pole’

The Big Melt: Glaciers in the high heart of Asia

feed its greatest rivers, lifelines for two billion people. Now the ice and snow are diminishing.

April 2010

Water: a key resource

River Area sq km

Mean discharge

(m3/s)

% of glacier melt in river

flow

Population x1000

Population density

Water per person m3/year

Indus 1,081,718 5533 44.8 178,483 165 830

Ganges 1,016,124 18691 9.1 407,466 401 ~2500

Brahmaputra 651,335 19824 12.3 118,543 182 ~2500

Irrawaddy 413,710 13565 unknown 33,097 80 18,614

Salween 271,914 1494 8.8 5,982 22 23,796

Mekong 805,604 11048 6.6 57,198 71 8934

Yangtze 1,722,193 34000 18.5 368,549 214 2265

Yellow 944,970 1365 1.3 147,415 156 361

Tarim 1,152,448 40.2 8,067 7 754

Total 1,324,800

Possibly up to 70% in the dry season

Disasters in South Asia (1975-2005)

3.5%7.2%

14.4%

7.5%

0.1%

35.0%

0.3%

6.6%

0.6% 0.6%

24.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%Dr

ough

t

Earth

quak

e

Epide

mic

Extre

meTe

mper

atur

e

Fami

ne

Flood

Inse

ctInf

esta

tion

Slide

s

Wav

e /

Surg

e

Wild

Fire

s

Wind

Sto

rm

Source: OFDA/Cred Database

South Asian countries are most vulnerable to floods

Social-economic stress

• Population growth• Food security• Human health

Climate change will depress agricultural yields most in HKH region in 2050

Sources: Müller and others 2009; World Bank 2008c. The figure shows the projected percentage change in yields of 11 major crops (wheat, rice, maize, millet, field pea, sugar beet, sweet potato, soybean, groundnut, sunflower, and rapeseed) from 2046 to 2055, compared with 1996–2005. The yield-change values are the mean of three emission scenarios across five global climate models, assuming no CO2 fertilization (a possible boost to plant growth and water-use efficiency from higher ambient CO2 concentrations). The numbers indicate the share of GDP derived from agriculture in each region. (The share for Sub-Saharan Africa is 23 percent if South Africa is excluded.) Large negative yield impacts are projected in many areas that are highly dependent on agriculture.

Gaps and Challenges

• Data availability and data sharing is constrained

• Few observation stations in high altitude

• Operation and Quality of the existing stations

• … …

Himalayas: A blank spot in IPCC AR4

Reducing scientific uncertainty

We need to reduce scientific uncertainty!

Under-representation of meteorological stations in the high Himalayas

Elevation (m)

Area ( 10,000 km2)

No. met stations

Density (No./10,000

km2)

Below 300 17.36 419 24.13

300-1000 175.49 146 0.83

1000-2000 175.12 266 1.52

2000-3000 84.95 53 0.62

3000-4000 72.17 74 1.03

4000-5000 141.73 58 0.41

>5000 72.00 16 0.22

Transboundary Observation Plan

Priorities: Transboundary Cooperation

• River basin approaches (transboundary): – East : Yaluzangbu-Brahmputure– Middle: Koshi river basin--Ganges– West: Indus river basin

• Site monitoring and integrated analysis– Existing sites– News sites: high elevation

Wetlands: Upstream-downstream LinkageAfter Falkenmark, 1999

Relevant Projects

Indus water availability, GTZ, from 2009-2011HYCOS, 2010-2012SRE-Himala, USAID/NASA, from 2010-2013Cryosphere, 2011-2015Kosi water resource and poverty reduction,

CAS, from 2009-20011, ESPA/DFID

Scientific vision

Capacity building for improved monitoring of ice and water resources in the region:• Establish systems for monitoring the status and

changes over time of snow, ice and water resources in the region

• Build capacity of relevant key institutions on monitoring of snow, ice and water resources using remote sensing and field based techniques

• Develop water availability scenarios for river basins• Promote data and information sharing

Thank youThank you