thinking outside the triangle
TRANSCRIPT
Thinking outside the triangle: using foresight in
project environments to deliver a resilient tomorrow
Marisa Silva
IPMA Expert Seminar
Zurich, Feb 2016
HOW CERTAIN ARE YOU ABOUT THE FUTURE ?
I think there is a world market for about five computers.Thomas J. Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
No matter what happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be caught napping.Frank Knox, Secretary of the Navy, 4 December 1941, just before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor
A severe depression like that of 1920-1921 is outside the range of probability.The Harvard Economic Society, 16 November 1929
Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, physicist and president of the British Royal Society, c. 1895
WHY BOTHER WITH THE FUTURE ?
From Gatti, L. (2014), A New Paradigm of Strategy – The Design of Long Term Futures
WHY BOTHER WITH THE FUTURE ?
From Singh, S. (2014), New Mega Trends: Design Opportunities & Implications
WHY BOTHER WITH THE FUTURE ?
Companies fail to create the
future not because they fail to
predict it but because they
fail to imagine it.
Gary Hammel
Management guru
Taylor (1991)
HOW FAR AHEAD ARE YOU LOOKING ?
INPUTS
ANALYSIS
INTERPRETATION
PROSPECTION
OUTPUTS
STRATEGY
FO
RESIG
HT
Events happening
What seems to be happening?
What is really happening?
What might happen?
What might we need to do?
What will we do?
How will we do it?
Voros (2003)
A GENERIC FORESIGHT MODEL
PROJECTS
PROGRAMS
PORTFOLIOS
PROJECT PORTFOLIO FORESIGHT
An individual and organizational ability to integrate future-
thinking in P3M processes and systematically make sense of
the future in relation to portfolios, programs, and projects.
Shenhar and Dvir (2001)
The extent to which the current
project helps prepare the
organization for future challenges
Risk Management and
Early Warning Indicators
PROJECT (PROIECTUM - “PROJECTION”)
Rooted on future-perfect-
thinking (Schutz, 1967)
Expanded to PM by Pitsis et. al.
(2003)
Forward-looking projections of
the non-yet existent end point
can help identifying the
required means to get there
Start with the end in mind
(backcasting)
Nikander et. al., 2001; Williams
et. al., 2010; Haji-Kazemi et. al.,
2013
Warning signs that possible
events are imminent
Discontinuities do not emerge
without warning (Wack, 1985)
Trend analysis and horizon
scanning
Future Preparedness Future-Perfect Strategy
PROGRAM: A POSTCARD FROM THE FUTURE
http://www.london-futures.com
Visioning
A “postcard from the future” (Managing Successful
Programmes, 2011: 54)
Communication and change tool
Compelling images of the preferred future (Bezold
et al., 2009)
Images can influence present behavior (Puglisi,
2002)
Does the selected portfolio of projects and programs withstand all these scenarios of the future?
Which set of projects and programs deliver the most suitable balance of risk, benefits and costs if a
certain scenario unfolds?
What would we change in our portfolio if we knew this scenario was going to occur?
DRIVING
FORCES
CRITICAL
UNCERTAINTIES
PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIOSPATHS AND
IMPLICATIONS
PORTFOLIO: THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW
Scenario Planning“Focus management energies and resources on those projects that will best
position the organization to pursue whichever scenario materializes” (Dye, 2002)
Woodward (2015)
Project Program Portfolio
Planning horizon Short-term Short to medium term Medium to long-term
Result Outputs Outcomes and benefits Value
Certainty of the
outcomeRelatively certain Uncertain Highly uncertain
View of the future focus Probable future Preferable future Plausible futures
Current streams of
research related to
Foresight
Future preparedness
Future-perfect strategy
Risk management and
early warning indicators
VisioningFuture preparedness
Scenario Planning
Applicability of
ForesightLimited applicability Applicable Significant applicability
Examples of Foresight
tools
Early warnings
Visioning
Visioning
Backcasting
Scenario Planning
Trend analysis
Horizon scanning
PROJECT PORTFOLIO FORESIGHT: SUMMARY
NOTICING INTERPRETING PREPARING CONTAINING RECOVERINGCRISIS
FORESIGHT
Adapted from Kutsch and Turner (2015)
PROJECT PORTFOLIO FORESIGHT: AN ENABLER TO
FUTURE-RESILIENCE
Projects
Programs
PortfoliosFU
TU
RES
THE FUTURE IS A TWO-WAY STREET
TAKE AWAY POINTS
We need to think more about the future
Foresight is not about being right, is about being ready
Projects impact and are impacted by the future
PMs need to think outside the triangle
Anticipatory resilience in projects can be gained through the use of Foresight
The future is thus a two-way route, where resilience and sustainability walk hand in hand
OUR PROJECTS ARE OUR FUTURE.
LET’S MAKE IT A GOOD ONE.