Thinking about “Thinking” Edward B. Rockower, Ph.D.

Research Professor, MOVES Institute The Naval Postgraduate School

Webinar Presented 3/21/15 Global Connectivity Research Institute

(http://www.global-connectivity-research.org)

www.Rockower.net Blog.Rockower.com LinkedIn.com/in/edwardbrockower/

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Caveat Thinkers: These are purely my own personal opinions.

"One head cannot hold all wisdom” - Maasai, East Africa

Organizing Principle(s) • Want to discuss “Deep Strategic Thinking” • Implies some immediate questions

– What is “Strategic”? – What is “Thinking”? (does it include intuition?)

• What are the other “types”? • How do we know they’re NOT “strategic”?

– Who’s doing the thinking? – What are they thinking about

How to approach these questions?

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"The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift." -- Albert Einstein

Yes, General Clausewitz but how?

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“War plans cover every aspect of a war, and weave them all into a single operation that must have a single, ultimate objective in which all particular aims are reconciled.”

Major General Carl von Clausewitz On War, viii, 1832, tr. Howard and Paret

“Begin with the end in mind” -- Stephen Covey

What we’ll discuss: • Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) • System Definition • What is a “Strategic Thinking Process” along with Methods

and Tools • Consistent with how we really think

Von Clausewitz … stressed the "moral" (in modern terms, psychological) and political aspects of war. His thinking is often described as Hegelian because of his references to dialectical thinking (cf Taoist Tai Chi ) He stressed the dialectical interaction of diverse factors, noting how unexpected developments unfolding under the "fog of war" (i.e., in the face of incomplete, dubious, and often completely erroneous information and high levels of fear, doubt, and excitement) call for rapid decisions by alert commanders*. … he argued that war could not be quantified or reduced to map work, geometry, and graphs. Clausewitz had many aphorisms, of which the most famous is "War is the continuation of politics by other means.

4 * cf. “Thin-slicing“: the ability to find patterns in events from "thin slices," or narrow windows, of experience

Strategic Thinking per Wikipedia • “There is no generally accepted definition for strategic thinking, no

common agreement as to its role or importance, and no standardized list of key competencies of strategic thinkers”

• “major attributes of strategic thinking in practice”

– Systems perspective – Intent focused i.e. more determined and less distractible (strong “will”) – Thinking in time means being able to hold past, present and future in

mind at the same time – Hypothesis driven, ensuring that both creative and critical thinking are

incorporated into strategy making. – Intelligent opportunism, which means being responsive to good

opportunities. (agile) • I would add, as also mentioned in that article*:

“comfortable with dialectical, Hegelian, synthesist, thinking” 5

* “The strategist must have a great capacity for both analysis and synthesis” --General Andre Beaufre “strategic thinking is more about synthesis … than analysis” -- Henry Mintzberg

Types of Challenges • Solving physics problems

– Teaching Univ. MD Physics course in Okinawa • Creative Thinking

– Preparation, incubation, illumination, verification – benzene & sewing machine (while dreaming) – Hadamard’s Book, “The Psychology of Invention in the Mathematical Field”

• Trade Studies (trade-off or decision analysis) – “Trade Studies: Process , Methods , Tools”

• “Strategic” Issues need “Strategic Thinking” – Above, plus possible added features:

• “Will”, Cutting the Gordian Knot, “Vision”, personality, Intuition, much more holistic, executive ability to see the essential features and ignore the unimportant, synthesist, ++ ?

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"No plan survives contact with the enemy." -- Helmut von Moltke (legendary Prussian strategist)

“but planning is essential” -- Eisenhower

Teaching Physics in Okinawa • Physics Problem Solving, 1st year College Physics • Teach most valuable thing: “how I think” when solving Physics problems • I Never solved the problems before class so they could see my process • Students asked about difficult problems • I verbalized my thoughts and process as I wrestled with the problems

(sometimes sweating) in front of the class • Process always worked (whew!)

– Transform verbal problem statement to symbols, equations and diagrams – Do NOT try to solve it in my head, nor care if it confuses me – Apply “methods” of physics, math, calculus, algebra – Only “tool” was the chalk and blackboard – the problem “solved itself”

• Much harder problems in graduate school: I said “what if I were Einstein, how would I approach this” (it always worked to get me unstuck)

– Cf. current research on “priming” subjects to get different results of experiments

• Above is NOT Strategic Thinking (Why?) 7

Pragmatic Approach • From a Practitioner ( I did Trade Studies on F-16 Program)

• Look at some examples, pick them apart • Next, a training course I developed & taught

-- Lockheed Martin/Space Systems Company, Advanced Technology Center

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“Trade Studies” (aka decision or tradeoff analysis) Process, Methods, Tools

• Led to my being selected as “Technical Lead” LM Corporate “Systems Engineering Analysis Fundamentals” (SEAF) Course

First, Define a Process

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1. Plan Trade Study 2. Problem Statement 3. System Definition 4. Modeling 5. Data 6. Measures of Effectiveness 7. Analysis of Alternatives 8. Optimization 9. Sensitivity Studies 10. Present Results

Study the science of art and the art of science. Learn how to see and remember that everything is connected to everything else.

-- Leonardo da Vinci

How well does our “System” Perform?

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Costweight($)

d($)Less is better

Performanceweight(P)

d(P)More is better

Riskweight(R)

d(R)Less is better

Scheduleweight(T)

d(T)Less is better

Measure of EffectivenessWeighted Arithmetic Mean ("compensation")

Weighted Geometric Mean ("mission critical factors")a surrogate for a "real" model combining factors

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* “Notes on Measures of Effectiveness” -- E. Rockower 1985

Hierarchy of MOEs & of “Trades”

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Aggr

egat

ion

Cos

ts

Unc

erta

intie

s

Low

er F

idel

ity m

odel

s/da

ta

More uncertain Larger & more Diverse

More “Strategic”?

More quantifiable & engineered

Teams for Trade Studies • Lower level trades need diverse engineering,

computer, statistics skills • Higher level Trades need more leadership,

wisdom, vision • More strategic thinking required?

– Anticipate meta-problems – Guide wider ranging thinking – Avoid technique-oriented thinking, promote

“problem-oriented” perspective

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Highly Multidisciplinary

Left Brain, Conscious (methods & tools)

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Types of Thinking • Left brain vice Right brain • Microscopic analysis into black boxes vice Meta

or Macro synthesis of System Architecture • Conscious vice Unconscious • Logical vice Intuitive • Monkey Mind vice “Mindful” • Organized, compulsive, focused, controlled vice day-dreaming, relaxed, Archimedes’ bath (Eureka!), “fuzzy” • “Dialectic”, Yin/Yang, Synthesis vice “A or NOT A”

– All wisdom is the integration of opposites. Lao Tzu was right!

14 “The mind is a wonderful servant, but a terrible master” — Goethe

Unconscious Mind Dominates From the book “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Nobel Prize winning (in Economics!) Psychologist Daniel Kahneman : “The picture that emerges from recent research, the intuitive System 1 (unconscious) is more influential than your experience tells you, and it is the secret author of many of the choices and judgments you make. Most of this book is about the workings of System 1 (unconscious mind) and the mutual influences between it and System 2 (conscious mind).”

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"When making a decision of minor importance, I have always found it advantageous to consider all the pros and cons. In vital matters however ... the decision should come from the unconscious, from somewhere within ourselves." — Sigmund Freud

Aids to Thinking • Systems Thinking • Edward de Bono’s 6 hats • I Ching • “Master Mind”, Discussions • Journaling, Doodling, … • Optimal Chunking • Transforming to other “space”, variables, perspectives • Learning to “see” w/o interference of unconscious

assumptions (draw face upside down) • Large “vocabulary” of words, images, models, tools

– Math, physics, agent-based simulations, complex adaptive systems, Chaos Theory, OO, top-down-structured, …

• Trusting your Unconscious (but not too much!)

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“Many of the tools of thinking are simply attention-directing tools.” — de Bono “Teach Your Child to Think”

Mind Map, Art of Thinking

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Pitfalls to Thinking

• Trying to prove how smart you are • Hiding your ignorance • Acceding to authority’s PoV • Premature closure • Staying in your “comfort zone”

– “drunk looking for keys under street light” • Insisting on holding entire problem in your head • Being “technique oriented”, not “problem oriented” • Lack of • Lack of Systems Thinking

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Notional Thinking System (who’s in charge here?)

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Conscious(partial control)

Sow

Reap

Sowing = preparation, incubationReaping = illumination (eureka), verification

“MonkeyMind”

Physical BodyMotor

Sensors touch>sight>soundcontrol

Unconscious

emotions

Sensor & HumINT

NetworksComputerAnalyses

Data

Checks and Balances* • The “Will” can cut the Gordian Knot (Alexander the Great) • The Conscious Mind can evaluate logically and “time travel” to the

past and future – Can intentionally exercise each “type” of thinking

(dialectical/synthesis, critical, creative, systems/holistic, …) – But is easily overwhelmed and confused by huge amounts of

information and uncertainty • The Unconscious Mind is possibly 1,000 to 10,000 times as fast as

the conscious mind – But can intrude thoughts based on false assumptions from emotions

and old memories – Sometimes sees patterns that aren’t there

Requires a lot of ability and experience to balance them How to do it How to teach it?

20 * I added “Will” to Nobelist Kahneman’s “useful fiction”

“Strategic Thinking, Process, Methods, Tools”? Crux of the problem: when to use each?

• “Will” has little regard for facts or theories – “wants what it wants”, “what part of ‘no’ don’t you

understand?” Can ignore details (can be a good thing!)

• Conscious Mind makes mistakes due to being overwhelmed, slow, unrecognized assumptions & preferences

• Unconscious Mind makes mistakes from lack of correct patterns or mis-applying wrong patterns, being illogical, using inappropriate heuristics

21 “Know Thyself” -- Thales of Miletus (engraved on the façade of the Oracle at Delphi)

References • 1. “The Art of Thinking” a) by Ernest Dimnet b) by Harrison & Bramson c) by Vincent Ruggiero • 2. “Naval Operations Analysis” 3rd Edition (includes my materials on Measures of Effectiveness) • 3. “Notes on Measures of Effectiveness” by E. Rockower, 1985.

http://www.rockower.net/articles/MOEs_Rockower.pdf • 4. “The Art of Doing Science and Engineering: Learning to Learn” by Richard W. Hamming, Gordon

and Breach 1997 • 5. “Six Thinking Hats” 2nd Edition by Edward de Bono, Back Bay Books, 1999 • 6. “Teach your child How to Think” by Edward de Bono, Penguin Books 1994 • 7. “Systems Thinking. Applied. A Primer” by Robert Edson, 2008; Asysti.org

http://www.anser.org/asyst http://www.anser.org/docs/systems_thinking_applied.pdf • 8. “The memorable Thoughts of Socrates” by Xenophon • 9. “Solitude: A Return to the Self” by Anthony Storr, Ballantine Books; 3rd edition (May 6, 1989) • 10. “It’s not that I’m so smart, it’s just that I stay with problems longer”. – Albert Einstein • 11. The Geography of Thought: How Asians and Westerners Think Differently…and Why by

Richard Nisbett • 12. Intelligence and How to Get It: Why Schools and Cultures Count by Richard Nisbett • “A Humanistic Art of Thinking, Better” http://blog.rockower.com/humanistic-art-thinking-

better/ • “Thinking, Fast and Slow” Daniel Kahneman Farrar, Straus and Giroux. 2011 • “Blink, the power of thinking without thinking” by Malcolm Gladwell Back Bay Books 2005

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