Theories of Voting

Several “Models”

• Socialization / Party Identification

• Rational Choice

• Economic voting

Several models

• Not mutually exclusive

• Some explain some thing / voters better than others

Political Socialization

• Vote choice in candidate races (pre) determined by Party Identification

• Where does PID come from?– early childhood socialization– social groups– stable, even strengthens over time

Political Socialization

Time --->

Childhood

Education

Occupation

Forces that structure PID

Campaign

eventsEthnicity vote choice

Political Socialization ‘08

Dem

(39%)

89% 10% 1%

Repub.

(32%)

9% 90% 1%

Ind

(29%)

52% 44% 1%

Obama McCain Other

Political Socialization ‘04

Dem

(37%)

89% 11% 0%

Repub.

(37%)

6% 93% 0%

Ind

(26%)

49% 48% 1%

Kerry Bush Nader

Political Socialization ‘00

Dem

(39%)

86% 11% 2%

Repub.

(35%)

11% 91% 1%

Ind

(27%)

45% 47% 7%

Gore Bush Nader

Political Socialization

• Balance of partisans in electorate changes very slowly, since individual’s PID very stable

• For partisans: – PID -> issues positions as much as issues

-> PID

Political Socialization

• Partisans most attentive, most interested

• Campaign events, information, ads, etc. don’t move their votes

• They know who to vote for prior to knowing candidates

Political Socialization

• Problems with theory– In US, 1/3 of voters are independent

• Many of these behave as partisans

– Mobilization• With everyone, much of the election depends

on out moblilzing the other side– 2008: fewer GOP voters came out

Political Socialization

• Problems with theory– Not much room for persuastion, converting

voters from one side to other

– No deliberation

Rational Choice

• Voters have preferences for issues / parties

• Voters evaluate choices in terms of candidate/party closest to voter’s preference

Rational Choice

• Voters select option closest in “issue space”

Candidate 1 Candidate 2

Left Right

Voter chooses candidate 2

Rational Choice

• Parties in a “market”– Adopt positions to appeal to the median

voter– If party strays to far from median (center),

they get hammered at the polls

Rational Choice

• Parties in a “market”– What is distribution of voter preferences?

• Normal (bell-shaped)?

• Bi-modal?

Rational choice

If most voters in center

Dem GOP

Left Right

Rational Choice

Left Right

Dem Gop

If few voters in center

Rational Choice

• For “pure” choice model to work– Voters start each election “fresh”

• Parties also?

– Re-evaluate issue positions– This assumes

• voters know candidate positions, voters know their own positions, voters think election causes policy to change

Rational Choice

• Rational ignorance– In reality, voters have history with parties

• they know, roughly, where each party is in issue space

– Not worth effort to become fully informed– Party labels act as short cuts

Rational Choice

• Problems with theory:– assumes far too much of voter

– ignores fact that surveys show voters ill-informed about issues & candidate positions

Rational choice

• Problems with theory– If so many voters in center, why are parties

polarized• Could be that parties “respond” to major donors, not

mass electorate– is this rational?

• Could be that nominations are controlled by ideological extremists

• Could be that parties are only polarized in congress– Districting

Rational Choice

• Does it work to explain how people decide on ballot measures?

Economic voting

• A “soft” form of issue voting / rational choice

• Some voters punish incumbents when times are bad– reward when times are good

Economic Voting

• Prospective– Voters plan ahead, pick candidate best for

them

Retrospective

Voters look backward

Economic Voting

• Self-interested– Vote based on their personal financial

situation

• Retrospective– Vote based on perceptions of the macro-

economy

Economic voting

• Parties may also purse economic policies that appeal to certain types of voters– Dems give priority to jobs, at expense of

inflation– GOP give priority to fighting inflation, at

expense of jobs

Economic voting

• Assumes that Dem voters less hostille to inflation, more worried about jobs

• This is a Philips Curve logic– Assumes a tradeoff between

unemployment and inflation

Economic Voting

• What links between class, party, and voting?– What difference in parties economic

policies• Tax cuts for who?

• See Bartels, Unequal Democracy