The World This Week November 14 - November 18 2016

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  • The World This Week November 14 November 18, 2016

  • Equity View:

    Currently the focus is on Federal rate hike and Trumps election. The global expectation for the

    next 3-4 weeks is that markets are going to be volatile and that there might be a rate hike by the

    US Fed in the month of December.

    India faced certain issues as demonetization was introduced. The impact was felt in many of the

    favorite industries as demand was affected. The interesting numbers to be watched would be

    the economic indicators which will keep on coming because the actual earnings impact will only

    be seen in the month of January.

    Share prices are a slave of earnings so what we can watch over the next few weeks would be the

    macro indicators and markets are expected to go down further in the short term. Deutsche bank

    has taken its end year focus from 28000 to 25000 on the Sensex.

    Karvy believes that stock markets would be in a good range to buy in the next two to three

    weeks and that would give a great opportunity for long term allocations in equity funds and

    PMS. It is a good time for debt allocation as well because with demonetization a lot of money

    has come into the banking system and Mr. Modi has himself mentioned that rate cuts by banks

    are expected. Many banks have in fact taken their lending rates down on their own and the

    entire transmission challenge that MrRaghuram Rajan had seemed to have been solved at one

    go. Therefore chances are very high that we will have rate cuts which will help the industry and

    equity market in the long run and also debt funds in the short term. However, these rate cuts

    would be discounted very fast.

    A number of industries are recommending duration funds. In the short term perspective

    duration funds are not an issue however, most clients are investors and they might not be able

    to capture this as most of it has been discounted. We are also looking at a FOMC rate which

    might have an impact on the rate of interest in the medium term. Hence anybody looking at a

    long term investment is advised to look at accrual funds or medium duration but not too long a

    duration unless someone is looking to buy G-sec and building actively in G-sec.

    FD rate cuts give people an opportunity for to take risk by buying a MIP or buying a balanced

    fund by adding equity allocation to debt portfolio. Times are good for us and customers to

    change their approach slightly and move away from low interest rate products to high interest

    rate products and to the equity market.

    Large caps have corrected by almost 12% and there has been 18-20% correction in the midcap

    space. It is a better risk to reward ratio in the short to medium term as well.

  • News:

    DOMESTIC MACRO:

    Tax revenue of the Centre, after the mandatory transfer to states, is expected to exceed the Budget target by at least R 50,000 crore, or close to 5%, during the current fiscal, helping the government meet the fiscal deficit target of 3.5% of the gross domestic product rather easily.

    GLOBAL MACRO

    EURO

    Prime Minister Theresa May will unveil her new industrial strategy on Monday, pledging to spend billions of pounds on science, technology and research to spur a new "ambitious" way of doing business in Britain.

    United States

    The U.S. economy is on track to grow at a 3.6 percent annualized pace in the fourth quarter after data showed domestic housing starts hit a nine-year high in October, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed.

    China

    Chinese policymakers have been unfazed by the yuan's recent slide, but are ready to slow its descent for fear of fanning capital flight if the currency falls too quickly through the psychologically important 7-per-dollar level.

  • Indices:

    Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck

    15-11-2016 26,305 11,977 19,520 22,053 11,048 13,923 7,973 15,164 9,282 10,262 11,630 1,944 1,231 5,126

    16-11-2016 26,299 12,044 19,711 21,841 10,831 13,886 7,899 14,960 9,445 10,152 11,546 1,949 1,222 5,217

    17-11-2016 26,228 11,999 19,698 21,860 10,864 13,875 7,925 15,014 9,315 10,203 11,587 1,967 1,223 5,130

    18-11-2016 26,150 12,072 19,859 21,727 10,727 13,864 7,849 15,207 9,264 10,081 11,755 1,991 1,239 5,102

    -0.59% 0.80% 1.74% -1.48% -2.91% -0.43% -1.56% 0.28% -0.19% -1.76% 1.07% 2.45% 0.66% -0.47%

    Commodities and Currency:

    Date USD GBP EURO YEN Crude

    (Rs. per BBL) Gold

    (Rs. Per 10gms)

    14-11-2016

    2910.00

    15-11-2016 67.7173 84.4232 72.7758 62.61 2904.00 29949.00

    16-11-2016 67.7791 84.6154 72.8422 62.12 3102.00 29808.00

    17-11-2016 67.9106 84.3178 72.5625 62.1 3089.00 29666.00

    18-11-2016 68.0937 84.4158 72.2134 61.56 3084.00 29354.00

    -0.56% 0.01% 0.77% 1.68% -5.98% 1.99%

    Debt:

    Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week)

    1-Year 6.21 -23

    2-Year 6.25 -15

    5-Year 6.40 -17

    10-Year 6.43 -29

  • Abhijit Bhave Shantanu Awasthi

    Rishi Ahirkar

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