The Use of Force

•Why do we use force?•What can you do with force?

•Answer: attain political goals

The Functions of Force

1. Defense2. Deterrence3. Compellence (coercive

diplomacy)4. Swaggering

Based in part on:

Sources

• Thomas Schelling. Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960).

• Thomas Schelling. Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966).

• Alexander George, David Hall, William Simons. The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Boston: Little, Brown and Co., 1971).

• Robert Art. To What Ends Military Power? International SecurityVol. 4, No. 4 (Spring, 1980), pp. 3-35.

• Herman Kahn. On Escalation (NY: Penguin, 1965).

1. Defense

Defense at its most complex

Defense at its most basic

2. Deterrence

•Goal: To prevent action•Method: Threat•Aimed at influencing an

opponent’s decision making•Assumption: rationality

Rational ChoiceRational Choice

Cost Benefit Analysis

Threat: increases perception of costs

Options Costs Benefits

A ? ?

B ? ?

C ? ?

Types of Deterrence

Deterrence by Punishment

Deterrence by Denial

Communication

Europe during the Cold War

China and Taiwan

Credibility and Reputation

•Capability•Will

•A bluff?

Extended Deterrence

• Europe• Japan• S. Korea• Israel• Taiwan• Australia• New Zealand

What to Threaten?

Irrationality?

Saddam Hussein Kim Jong-un

• If deterrence fails….

3. Compellence (coercive diplomacy)

•Goal: To change opponent behavior•To stop an opponent from doing something they are doing

•To get an opponent to do something they are not doing

Basic Elements

1. Brute force won’t work2. Assumes rationality3. War is bargaining4. The power to hurt allows you

to enter the bargaining

1. Brute force won’t work

2. Assumes Rationality2. Assumes Rationality

Cost Benefit Analysis

Options Costs Benefits

A ? ?

B ? ?

C ? ?

3. War is Bargaining

4. Entering the Bargaining?

•The power to hurt•Capability• Intentions

Some Lessons1. Shadow of the Future2. It doesn’t always work3. Commitment4. Credibility5. Democracies and Compellence6. Balance of Commitment7. Non-state Actors8. Civilians9. Uncertainty and Risk10.Domestic Politics11.Irrationality?

1. Shadow of the Future

• What coerces?• The promise of future violence

2. It doesn’t always work

Compellence Success

• Cuban Missile Crisis

Compellence Failure• F-105s over Vietnam

3. Commitment

• Berlin Airlift 1948

4. Credibility

A. Continue the pain

Credibility

B. Interdependence of credibility and commitment• Reputation• Was Vietnam about Europe?• “Doctrine of Credibility”

5. Democracies

• Poor at compellence?• Vulnerable?

6. Balance of Commitment

Vietnam War

Balance of Commitment

Ukraine

7. Non-State Actors

• Two ErasA.Cold War

•Insurgencies and Marxist ethno-nationalist terrorists

•Vietcong•Palestinian Liberation Organization

(PLO)

Non-State Actors

B. Post-Cold War:• Network organizations living

off of globalization• Not state sponsored

• AQAM• Boko Haram• ISIL• Al-Shabab

8. Civilians

Dresden, Feb 1945 World Trade Center

9. Uncertainty and Risk

•Competition in risk taking•Brinkmanship•“The Threat That Leaves Something to Chance”•Escalation

• Herman Kahn

10. Domestic Politics and Compellence

The Politics of the Target

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani

Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Dilemmas

• Irratioality• Perceiving message• Can the opponent do what you

ask?

4. Swaggering

• The Great White Fleet 12/07-2/09