the silent revolution continues

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Journal of Science Education and Technology PP079-296763 March 20, 2001 9:44 Style file version Oct. 23, 2000

Journal of Science Education and Technology, Vol. 10, No. 2, 2001

The Silent Revolution Continues1

John Perlin2

The reliability and versatility of photovoltaics whereby solar cells convert sunlight directly intoelectricity have impressed many in the power and telecommunications industries. Twenty yearsago, institutions such as the World Bank knew little about photovoltaics. Now the Bank andmany other world power brokers view solar cells as having an important and growing part inproviding electrical services in the rural areas of the developing world. In telecommunications,these same agencies believe that only photovoltaics offers a real practical possibility of reliablerural telecommunication for general use. Opportunities in the developed world abound aswell. The growing concern over global warming promises to transform photovoltaics into amajor energy producer, allowing everyone the benefits of electricity without doing harm toour home, planet earth.

KEY WORDS: Photovoltaics; solar electricity; solar energy; solar cells.

Twenty-six years of terrestrial experience havetruly created a place for photovoltaics in the worldenergy field. Two decades ago PV [photovoltaics]for uses on earth was completely new for everythingand everybody, Bernard McNelis, solar pioneer, ob-served. Back then most people had no idea that therewas such a thing. Now, at least it is known by peo-ple who do science and engineering. 3 Indeed, indus-try no longer considers photovoltaics an alternativesource of energy for its remote power needs. It is nowregarded as the most effective solution. 4

Back in the 1970s, western institutions, such asthe World Bank, did not even consider photovoltaicsfor their current or future energy programs. As for-mer World Bank employee Steve Allison affirms,The Banks attitude toward photovoltaics [then]was nonexistent. 5 Throughout the 1980s, nothingchanged. It was virtually impossible, [even] at your

1Chapter 15 of From Space to Earth: The Story of Solar Electricity byJohn Perlin. Reprinted with permission. Available for $32 postpaidfrom aatec publications; e-mail: [email protected]

23639 San Remo Drive, Unit #18, Santa Barbara, California 93105;e-mail: [email protected]

3Interview with Bernard McNelis.4Shell Solar. Connecting You to the Sun [Brochure].5Interview with Steve Allison.

own cost, to go to the World Bank and put on a one- ortwo-hour lecture merely to inform them about pho-tovoltaics, Terry Hart, now a consultant for WorldBank solar projects in India, confirmed.6 The iner-tia at the Bank and like institutions toward embrac-ing photovoltaics was less a reflection on a lack ofscientific or technological merits of solar cells, theinternationally respected scientific journal Nature be-lieved, than on the enormous built-in momentumthat modern industrialized society has which resistsmajor changes. 7 Bureaucracies shy away from any-thing but the tried and conventional. In Allisons opin-ion, every World Bank functionary worries that he orshe might suggest something that will turn out wrong,and God knows what might happen to your careerafter that! 8

The first members of the energy establishmentwho publicized successful earth applications were theoil companies and the Electric Power Research Insti-tute (EPRI), the research arm of Americas investor-owned utilities. Early in 1978, Shell issued a reportto the public on solar energy, announcing that the

6Interview with Terry Hart.7Solar energy is a key to development. Nature 281 (20 September1979): 167.

8Interview with Steve Allison.

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1059-0145/01/0600-0137$19.50/0 C 2001 Plenum Publishing Corporation



138 Perlin

sun may provide electric power via photovoltaicdevices in certain remote applications : : :whereinaccessibility otherwise makes equipment operationand maintenance involving other energy sources ex-tremely costly. 9 EPRI clearly saw the worth of terres-trial photovoltaics during the 1970s and early 1980s,too. Power has a very high value in : : : remote appli-cations, and solar cells generate it more cheaply thanany other means, the Institute wrote in 1981.10

Remote industrial applicationssuch as power-ing navigation aids, corrosion protection devices, rail-road signaling apparatuses, water pumping, and homepower systemsmight have seemed trivial to thosewho think in terms of central power generation, but, asone expert observed, Benefits do accrue : : : in termsof field testing, user education, and confidence. 11

The success of photovoltaics in powering remote mi-crowave repeaters erased any doubts engineers mighthave had about its reliability. Telecommunicationsprofessionals would attend international conferencesand spread the word that photovoltaic systems per-form better than any other stand-alone power gener-ator. Eventually such praise reached institutions suchas the World Bank and the World Energy Council, anorganization that represents major utilities through-out the globe, leading people like Dr. Hisham Khatib,a member of the Councils Committee for DevelopingCountries, to recognize that solar cells for use at in-dividual houses : : : are a very important developmentthat warrants particular attention [as] they are idealfor low-power rural applications. 12

Both Steve Allison and Terry Hart have notedthe World Banks recognition of the importance ofphotovoltaics for the developing world. On a returnvisit to the Bank, after a 25-year absence, Allisoncould not believe the number of people involvedin photovoltaics. Theres a whole department withspecialists working away on the deployment of so-lar cells,Allison noted.13 Hart observed, The Bankportfolio has been rapidly growing in terms of interestand commitment to photovoltaics.14 A recent state-ment made by the Bank declared, Few people nowdoubt that PVs have an important and growing part

9Solar energy. Shell Reports (February 1978).10Photovoltaics: A question of efficiency. EPRI Journal 6 (Decem-

ber 1981): 46.11Bhattacharya, T. (1982). Solar photovoltaics: An Indian perspec-

tive, solar cells. Solar Cells 6: 258.12Khatib, H. (September 1993). Electrification for developing

countries. EPRI Journal 18: 29.13Interview with Steve Allison.14Interview with Terry Hart.

to play in providing electrical services in rural areasof the developing world, and many are also becomingaware that PVs have potential applications in subur-ban and peri-urban areas of many developing coun-tries. 15

The continuing revolution in telecommunica-tions will also bring an increased role for photo-voltaics. The development of solar cells has alwaysgone hand-in-hand with advances in telecommunica-tions. Laying the transatlantic telegraph cable broughtabout the discovery of seleniums light sensitivity and,ultimately, its ability to convert sunlight directly intoelectricity. Transistor research gave birth to the siliconsolar cell, still the workhorse of photovoltaic appli-cations in space and on earth. Subsequent advancesin the telecommunications field would literally havenever got off the ground without solar power. Eversince the launching of Telstar in 1962, the transmittersof all telecommunications satellites have run on pho-tovoltaics. Solar cells give satellites the power to beamtelephone calls, Internet messages, and TV shows torelay stations back on earth for worldwide dissemina-tion.

The union of photovoltaics with the communica-tions industry has continued terrestrially as well when,in the 1980s, solar cells became the power source ofchoice for remote microwave repeaters. The spreadof cellular networks continues this close relationship.Jim Trotter relates how his firm, Solar Electric Spe-cialties, got involved in the field: When we were firstdoing photovoltaics in the early 1980s, cellular phoneswere a rare and exotic breed, the cell sites were fewerand more concentrated. They were usually located onmountaintops that had been used for decades by otherbroadcasting groups where there was utility poweravailable. But as the cell sites sprawled into virginterritory and there was no power available, the costto extend power lines to these sites tends to exceedthe cost of solar cells in lots of locations, making uscost-competitive in many cases for a technology thatwasnt there when we started out. 16

Most westerners take telephone access forgranted. In Africa, however, 75% of the telephonesare in the cities, while more than 75% of the popu-lation resides in rural areas.17 Many Africans, Asians,and Latin Americansin fact, over half of the worlds

15Foley, G. (1996). Photovoltaic Applications in Rural Areas of theDeveloping World, The World Bank, Washington, DC, p. xiii.

16Interview with Jim Trotter.17United Nations. (1989). Energy Issues and Options for Develop-

ing Countries, Taylor and Francis, New York, p. 201.



The Silent Revolution Continues 139

populationmust travel over two hours just to makea phone call.

As with electrical service, the expense ofstringing telephone wires keeps most of the devel-oping world isolated. Satellites, cellular service, or acombination of the two offer the only hope. In theDominican countryside, for instance, cellular is theonly phone service you can get, according to localsolar installer Richard Hansen. Were now seeingphone companies putting in pay phone booths withsolar cells : : :fixed cellular, not like the portable onesin the States. Solar-powered cellular phones in ruralgrocery stores or restaurants also make a good busi-ness by creating a little cellular phone calling center,Hansen adds.18 The Grameen Bank in Bangladesh hassimilar plans for developing a photovoltaic-poweredcellular network. Through its subsidiary, GrameenTelecom, it will finance 50,000 solar-powered cellularphones for 1 million subscribers. The owners of thephones, impoverished villagers, will first pay off theequipment and then earn money by charging othersto make calls.19

A group of influential investors, including BillGates and major telecommunications companies,have formed a commercial venture called Teledesic,which plans to bring the Internet to every village in theworld. Aided by photovoltaic-run low-orbiting satel-lites communicating with photovoltaic-powered land-based satellite receiver dishes, artisans, for example,could communicate on their photovoltaic-poweredlaptops directly to customers anywhere in the world.Customers could examine and select items displayedon websites, and they could place orders and makepayments electronically. Such improved communica-tions would rid the artisans of their dependency onurban middlemen.20

The global Internet would also allow villagers,if properly trained, to work at relatively high-payingjobs without leaving home. With such training andequipment, Young people will be able to performdata entry and : : : transcription services for any com-pany in the world [without leaving their villages], abetter alternative than migration to urban slums insearch of employment, states Muhammed Yunus,founder and managing director of the GrameenBank.21 As a United Nations study concluded, Theuse of solar photovoltaics : : : can revolutionize [com-

18Interview with Richard Hansen.19Alleviating poverty through technology. Science 282 (16 October

1998): 410.20Interview with Bill Yerkes.21Ibid.

munications in the developing world] by, for the firsttime, offering a real practical possibility of reliablerural telecommunications for general use. 22

Opportunities for photovoltaics in the developedworld continue to grow, too. The U.S. National ParkService, for example, has finally decided that the elec-tricity produced by its many generators not only costsmore than power generated by photovoltaics, but thenoise of the generators, the pollutants they spew, andthe risk of oil spills in transporting the diesel fuel overwaterways run counter to the agencys mission as theguardian of Americas pristine landscapes.23 The De-fense Department has also identified over 3,000 MWof power now produced by diesel generators thatphotovoltaics could more economically generate. Thisalone is 30 times the capacity of todays solar cell in-dustry.24

Private industry has also begun to replace itsgenerators with photovoltaics. For years, the portablewarning signs used on roadways to alert motorists oflane closures and other temporary hazards have runon gasoline generators. But the maintenance was sobad, a battery engineer attests, that they started touse solar. 25 In fact, the entire industry is changing tophotovoltaics as fast as the necessary equipment canbe brought on-line. Revolutionary lighting elements,light-emitting diodes, have helped spur the replace-ment of generators with solar power. The diodes re-quire so little power that a small panel can not onlypower the lights during sunny periods but also chargeaccompanying batteries to keep the lights running atnight and during bad weather.

In the United States and western Europe, hun-dreds of thousands of remotely situated homes arenot connected to power lines. Just as in the develop-ing world, linking these homes to centrally generatedelectricity costs too much. For example, Public Ser-vice of Colorado, one of the states largest utilities,requires customers to pay tens of thousands of dollarsto string wires a quarter to half a mile (400800 m)

22United Nations, Energy Issues and Options, 202.23The Italian government also has decided to light archaeologi-

cal parks with photovoltaics. Its choice stems from the fact thatthis constitutes a typical case where photovoltaics is cost effec-tive because of the distance of the [parks] from the power grid.Moreover : : : the installation of distribution lines or conventionaldiesel generators is inadvisable, due to their unacceptable envi-ronmental impact. Barra, L. et al. (1991). Photovoltaic systemsfor archaeological areas. In Tenth E. C. Photovoltaic Solar EnergyConference, Lisbon, Portugal, 812 April 1991, Kluwer AcademicPublishers, Dordrecht, p. 805.

24Interview with William Gould, Edison International.25Interview with Ed Mahoney.



140 Perlin

from the closest line. Once these people pay to bewired, they can get the electricity quite cheaply, pho-tovoltaics research engineer John Thornton observes.But first they have to pay for the power line. Thatsthe killer!! The other choice, a photovoltaic systemthat will supply all the electrical needs for a typicalsuburban home, costs between $20,000 and $25,000.If they live a quarter mile or more from a utility pole,Thornton concludes, people are finding that solarcells are the lowest cost option. 26

The electrical requirements of the thousands ofvacation cabins in the developed world closely resem-ble those of rural homes in poorer countries. Vaca-tioners tote in either kerosene, diesel, or gasoline torun a few lights and perhaps a TV or radio. Theseare the people who can most beneficially use photo-voltaics, Jim Trotter believes. Thats because a smallsolar system costing a few hundred dollars, which theycan easily afford, can satisfy all their needs. 27 Asearly as 1981, ARCO Solar found a good market inSpain, supplying photovoltaic power to the mountainretreats of those escaping the hot, muggy Mediter-ranean summer. Because the private utility could notelectrify them without losing money, these mountainhomes had no power. During the 1980s, Spaniardsbought more photovoltaic systems than anyone else inEurope. Some years later, powering vacation homesin Finland put that nations utility into the photo-voltaics business. The utility decided it made moresense to install solar modules on each of the 40,000holiday cottages in the Finnish countryside than tobring in power lines that would desecrate the bucolicvistas. For similar reasons, 14,000 Swiss Alpine chaletsget their electricity from the sun.

Rolland Skinner, general manager of the North-west Rural Public Power District, a Nebraska ruralelectric cooperative, knows that Mali and the rest ofthe developing world are not the only places that usewater pumps. His utility serves the picturesque butthinly populated Sand Hills region. Much of the elec-tricity that runs through Skinners lines powers wa-ter pumps, and because the cooperatives clients havelow energy needs, the organization has found itself in adilemma. In the next decade, the rural utility will haveto replace its aging 60-year-old poles. Skinner figuresthat for the longest connections, the old ones, whichrun about a mile and a half [approximately 2.5 km] todrive a water pump, it will cost about $15,000 to putin new poles and wire and $5,000 to $6,000 to tear

26Interview with John Thornton.27Interview with Jim Trotter.

the old ones out. : : :Or I could put in a photovoltaicsystem for $5,000 total! The economics for poweringwells with solar cells become even more compelling,according to Skinner, with the continuing disappear-ance of family-owned farms. A lot of homesteads arefalling down and the only demand for electricity leftout there is a well for the livestock. 28

Managers of other rural utilities have similarconcerns. They, too, own miles of dilapidated linethat principally power stock wellsabout 125,000 ofthem. Another 125,000 water pumps in the westernUnited States run on diesel or wind, and all ofthem, in Skinners words, are getting older by theyear. 29 Environmental concerns will only increasethe number of pumps in the future. Missouri, for ex-ample, wants to move cattle away from its streamsand rivers, according to Ken Stokes, who runs aphotovoltaic-equipmentbuying service that caters torural Americans. Livestock are in there and doingtheir thing [defecating] in the water and theyre alsomessing up the embankments and eroding them. Thestate therefore wants to fence off all waterways andhave cattlemen water their animals by pumps. 30 Thenumber of water pumps will also increase as ranch-ers embrace the concept of rotational grazing, whichcalls for fencing a pasture into portions and grazinganimals more intensely for shorter periods of timein each portion. Under these conditions, grass growsfaster and healthier, but ranchers have to add pumpsbecause the cattle must have water in each field. Theycould choose a diesel- or propane-fired generator torun their pumps, but then, Youve got to fuel themup, turn them off, and check the oil at least once a day.[And] if youre not there to shut them off once theypump the well dry, they can burn themselves out, ac-cording to rancher Donald Mclvor. This left him thechoice of either photovoltaics or wind power. Pho-tovoltaics won hands down in Mclvors opinion, Itstrouble free and a lot cheaper. 31

Increased ecological awareness is a big rea-son behind the popularity of equipping recreationalvehicles (RVs) with solar modules. A good manycampgrounds have come to prohibit RV owners fromrunning generators because the exhaust gases polluteand the noise keeps other campers from sleeping orcommuning with nature. RVs already have invertersto change the generators DC electricity to AC and

28Interview with Rolland Skinner.29Ibid.30Interview with Ken Stokes.31Lamarre, L. (November/December 1995). Renewables in a com-

petitive world. EPRI Journal 20: 17.




batteries for storage, so all the industry has to do issubstitute the power source with a new one: photo-voltaics.

The movement for cleaner air has led many ur-ban and suburban dwellers to want green power fortheir homes. Market research in Australia has shownthat tens of thousands of people are willing to paya premium to power their homes with nonpollutingsources of energy. The trend toward deregulation inthe electric industry will make it easier for more peo-ple to make the choice. Having a photovoltaic sys-tem on your roof is about as green as you can get,remarks Peter Lawley, who united Martin GreensUniversity of South Wales photovoltaics group withPacific Power a New South Wales utility, thus creatingPacific Solar. The beauty of it is when people havethe modules on their rooftops and can see their me-ter running backward, Lawley adds. Thats real. 32

In the opinion of an American utility, which is in-vesting in rooftop systems designed by AstroPower,Theres going to be a lot of different ways peoplewill get electricity in the future and only one will bethrough traditional wires and poles. As photovoltaicsbecomes more cost-effective and more reliable, moreand more people will be choosing [it] as an alternativeto the traditional supply line. 33

To make rooftop systems as simple as possi-ble, solar technologists have come up with the AC-module, which contains a tiny mechanism that con-verts the direct current produced by the cells into themore commonly used alternating current before theelectricity exists the panel. The AC-module eliminatesboth the special wiring necessary to couple the pan-els as well as the costly inverter previously requiredto change DC into AC. The homeowner simply plugsthe electrical cord from the AC-module into a conven-tional electrical socket. Popular Science calls the AC-module a significant step forward for photovoltaictechnology and included it in the magazines 1998list of The Years Greatest Achievements in Scienceand Technology. 34 DC systems have also becomeeasy to install. They are now available in prepack-aged stand-alone power units that purchasers simplyplug in where electricity is needed.

Global warming ranks as the principal concernmotivating the push toward greener energy sources.

32Interview with Peter Lawley.33Interview with Jim Tworpe, President, GPU Solar.34The best of whats new100 of the years greatest achieve-

ments in science and technology. Popular Science 253 (December1998): 77.

Indeed, in 1989, the Annual Review of Energy calledthe possibility of global climate change arising fromfossil fuel combustion : : : [the] one environmental is-sue [that] shadows all of our thoughts about energytoday. 35 Most people in the know see regulationson the output of CO2 as a when rather than an if,reports Mark Trexler, whose consulting firm special-izes in global warming issues. In fact, the 1998 KyotoProtocol on Climate Change, which has yet to be rat-ified, commits the developed world to institute signif-icant reductions on greenhouse gas emissions. Capson CO2 emissions could have a huge effect on renew-ables, according to Trexler. Once companies needto start offsetting their emissions, there could be bil-lions of dollars flowing yearly from these companiesto CO2-offset projects.36 And photovoltaic installa-tions, as offset projects, would definitely receive someof the funding. For example, abiding by carbon diox-ide restrictions, a utility could continue to burn fossilfuels if it financed a solar cell installation that wouldeliminate the emission of a corresponding amount ofCO2 elsewhere.37

To stop greenhouse gas emissions where theystartat the smokestacksplant owners would haveto remove CO2 the same way utilities currently scrubsulfur dioxide. These added costs would eliminate theprice disadvantage photovoltaic-generated electricityfaces when competing in the utility market. The WorldEnergy Council predicts that by adopting such a pro-gram, [T]he impact on the attractiveness and pen-etration of renewable energy technologies such asphotovoltaics would be very large. 38

Photovoltaics could also play a significant rolein helping to eliminate greenhouse emissions by carsand trucks, if and when electric vehicles start to

35Preface. Annual Review of Energy 14 (1989): v. The latest scien-tific evidence suggests that global warming that is due at least inpart to human activity has affected the earth for over a century.Wigley, T. et al. (27 November 1998). Anthropogenic influenceon the autocorrelation structure of hemispheric-mean tempera-tures. Science 282: 16761679. Study after study published overthe last decade have further convinced the majority of scientists,as the prestigious National Academy of Sciences warned Presi-dent George Bush, that global warming may well be the mostpressing international issues of the next century. Kahn, J. (1990).Global warming and energy efficiency. Sunworld 14: 4445.

36Interview with Mark Trexler.37For example, lighting homes with kerosene emits from three

to six tons of CO2 over twenty years. If a utility sponsoredthe widespread use of solar energy as the replacement fuel forkerosene, it would eliminate this CO2 contribution and thereforequalify as a CO2-offset project.

38World Energy Council. (1994). New Renewable Energy Re-sources, World Energy Council, London, p. 131.



142 Perlin

proliferate. Modules integrated into the roofs of cov-ered parking lots would provide conveniently locatedrecharging stations, as well as protection from theelements. 39

39It must be noted that every other nonproducer of greenhousegases presents major obstacles to its widespread future use. It istrue that nuclear power does not produce greenhouse gases, butlong before Three Mile Island and Chernobyl became synonymsfor toxic disaster, scientists concerned about climate change ruledout nuclear because of the serious environmental effects of itsbyproducts. Study of Critical Environmental Problems (SCEP).(1970). Climatic effects of mans activities. Mans Impact on theGlobal Environment, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, p. 12. The ac-cidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl intensified an al-ready skeptical public attitude toward nuclear power and signif-icantly reduced the potential of conventional nuclear power tocontribute to the worlds electricity in the coming decades. Pref-ace. Annual Review of Energy 15 (1990): v. The Chernobyl dis-aster ranks as the deadliest single human-caused catastrophe inthe history of civilization, excluding, of course, acts of war. At theminimum, 6,000 deaths can be directly attributed to Chernobyl.D. Marples (May/June 1996). The decade of despair. The Bul-letin of the Atomic Scientists, p. 25. More than a decade afterthe accident, the death toll from Chernobyl continues to mountwith the explosive increase in childhood thyroid cancer in : : : thecountries most contaminated by the 1985 Chernobyl nuclear acci-dent. Balter, M. (15 December 1995). Chernobyl thyroid cancertoll. Science 270: 1758. Most frightening for Europeans is thatincreased rates of thyroid cancer have been found as far as 500km (310 miles) from Chernobyl and in Europe everyone liveswithin five hundred kilometers of a nuclear power station. Bal-ter, Chernobyl Thyroid Cancer Toll. The peaks of the Alps stillcontain dangerous levels of radiation spewed by the disaster. Ra-diation still present in Alps. Santa Barbara News Press (3 May1998): A16. Nuclear power plants also make excellent targetsfor terrorists, as well as enemies at war. Increasing the numberof nuclear plants makes the possibility of such disasters moreimminent.

Wind energy and hydropower do not add greenhouse gasesto the atmosphere either. Windpower presently generates elec-tricity more cheaply than photovoltaicswhere reliable windsblow. Large parts of the world, however, lack that resource. Inaddition, the proliferation of large windfarms would visually pol-lute open terrain and seascapes. Burgess, P., and Pymn, P. (1985).Solar Pumping in the Future; A Socioeconomic Assessment CSPEconomic Publishers, Pentyrch, p. 23. Hydropower can only workwhere rivers and streams flow powerfully enough to move tur-bines. However, large-scale hydro projects can create significantsocial and environmental discord, including population displace-ment, riparian habitat destruction, and general havoc for all liv-ing downstream. Weather events are also a consideration. In SriLanka, for example, where hydro accounts for 93% of the islandselectricity, the very dry weather of 1992 brought 4 months ofpower rationing. Gunaratne, L. (1994). Solar Photovoltaics in SriLanka: A Short History. Progress in Photovoltaics 2: 308. Changesin the worlds hydrologic cycle, predicted by global-warming mod-els, severely threaten the reliability of this power source in thefuture.

Power plants using mirrorspower towers and troughreflectorsthat concentrate solar energy onto a boiler do not

This winters El Nino [199798] is a taste ofwhat we might expect if the earth warms as we nowproject, James Baker of the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration announced.40 His warn-ing suggests that the future will bring more calami-tous weather: deluges, droughts, hurricanes, torna-does, and ice storms, resulting in wildfires, floods, andother related misfortunes. The expected increase inthe number of natural disasters brought on by theharsher future climate, as well as the growing numberof people settling in catastrophe-prone regions whereearthquakes, hurricanes, and volcanoes are a threat,make early-warning systems essential. Photovoltaic-powered monitoring devices in relatively remote lo-cations can pick up signals of impending disaster andalert the population. Solar-run equipment alreadykeeps tabs on the water flow in the canyons aboveTucson, ready to warn people downstream of the flashfloods that sometimes occur during their monsoonseason. Railroads, such as the Burlington NorthernSanta Fe, use photovoltaics to power rock and mud-slide detection fences, which electronically informtrains of potentially dangerous conditions and so pre-vent life-threatening and costly derailments.41

The ultimate early-warning device may be solar-powered weather surveillance airplanes, scheduledfor takeoff sometime in the next decade. The hun-dreds of photovoltaic panels that cover the planes250-foot wingspread are connected to fuel cells un-derneath. Throughout the day, photovoltaics will gen-erate the electricity to run the aircraft and to extracthydrogen and oxygen from the water discharged bythe fuel cells the night before. When the sun sets,

emit CO2, but they only work in cloudless weather. This rulesthem out for much of the world. They would work well in theMojave desert or the deserts of Peru, but in central and northernEurope, Forget it! exclaimed solar expert Markus Real. Inter-view with Markus Real. Even in Spain and Sicily, poor winterweather can stymie power towers and trough reflectors abilityto work. Wolfgang Palz, the project leader for the first powertower built in Sicily, learned this the hard way. Both the plant inSicily and the one in southern Spain, optimal sites for Europe,had lots of trouble with clouds. The weather gets really toughfrom December to April. Everywhere bad. This is the main rea-son solar thermal does not work in Europe. We just dont havethe climate. Interview with Dr. Wolfgang Plaz. It should be keptin mind that large reflector plants situated in certain locationswould cause irreparable harm to fragile ecosystems.

40Baker, D. J. (7 April 1998). Special El Nino weather summaryissued. In United States Department of Commerce News, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA-98-019.

41Personal correspondence, James G. Le Vere, Manager, SpecialProjects, Burling-ton Northern Santa Fe.




the extracted hydrogen and oxygen will power thefuel cells, generating the energy that keeps the air-craft aloft at night. Water discharged in this processwill allow the diurnal cycle to begin anew the nextmorning. In this way, the airplane can remain abovethe turbulence for months, watching for and trackinghurricanes and other potentially dangerous weatherdisturbances.42

Once a natural disaster strikes, power lines top-ple. But those who own photovoltaics with storagewill still have electricity. For example, after the greatice storm that hit the American northeast in early1998, the lives of people who powered their homesby solar cells connected to batteries were not drasti-cally altered. Hurricanes Georges and Mitch wreakedterrible havoc throughout the Caribbean and CentralAmerica, but they left the thousands of photovoltaicinstallations there virtually unscathed. Of the morethan 9,000 installations in the Dominican Republic,fewer than 20 were lost. Similar low losses of photo-voltaic systems were reported in Honduras as well.Amazingly, even in areas that took a direct hit, suchas the coastal village of Bayahibe, few solar mod-ules were lost because their owners simply removed[them] from the roof before the hurricane arrivedand remounted them when the storm left.43

Catastrophes that break down the vast and com-plex infrastructure that makes modern life possibleleave those without an alternative such as photo-voltaics to fall back on as isolated and without ser-vices as the poorest, most remote villagers in develop-ing lands. Only stand-alone equipment run on locallyavailable power sources can bring a semblance of nor-mality to such situations. Disasters create the idealenvironment for photovoltaics: No power from theoutside is forthcoming and only small amounts of en-

42Interview with Jennifer Lee Bair-Riedhart of NASA. Solar-powered weather surveillance airplanes may also prove superiorto satellites for transmitting information. Their lower altitude andcapability to hover directly over communication centers on earthwould allow for the transmission of more information faster andmore cheaply than any satellite could deliver. Such aircraft wouldeliminate the need for an expensive rocket and fuel, as well aseliminating the use of ozone-destroying chemicals contained inrocket propellants. Additionally, if a problem occurred with theequipment, the aircraft could return to earth for repairs, as well asfor upgrades. The aircraft would therefore not only be reusable,but it could always be equipped with the latest gear, unlike thecurrent situation in which we are locked into antiquated technol-ogy aboard satellites which cannot return to earth.

43Hurricanes Georges and Mitch: PV systems fared well in theDominican Republic and Honduras. Enersol News (Winter 1999).

ergy are necessary to run basic emergency equipment.Emergency personnel can quickly carry inby foot,if necessaryultralight panels, which fold and fit intoa backpack, and set them up in minutes to reestab-lish the communication links imperative to search andrescue work. Photovoltaics can also power portablemessage signs and temporary warning lights to helpmotorists negotiate dangerous roads, telling them ofclosures and conditions ahead and taking the place ofdowned traffic signals and fallen street signs.

As the aftermaths of Hurricanes Andrew andMitch demonstrated, utility power can remain downfor some time. Maintaining simple health and sani-tation standards then becomes a primary concern. Insuch situations, photovoltaics can stem the onslaughtof disease. For example, in Honduras, photovoltaic-powered ultraviolet rays penetrate contaminatedwater, killing all biotic pathogens. Modules have alsoproven their indispensability by powering clinics andaid centers. At St. Annes Mission, which served thevictims of Hurricane Andrew, it took but one day toput up a photovoltaic system that ran fans, lights, andvaccine refrigerators.44 The missions rector remarkedto those seeking aid and shelter, You see? This isGods light. 45

Just as El Nino has forewarned us of global warm-ings possible impact, the oil crisis of the 1970s pro-vided the Western world with an idea of what lifewill be like when cheap oil runs out. Petroleum ana-lysts Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere predict thatpetroleum prices will rise once again within the nextdecade, but this time they will continue to climb.Campbell and Laherrere have come to this conclu-sion because the supply of conventional oil will beunable to keep up with demand as worldwide pro-duction starts to decline by 2010.46

44Young, W. (1995). Preface. In Photovoltaic Applications for Dis-aster Relief (FSEC-CR 849-95) Florida Solar Energy Center,Cocoa, FL.

45Melody. I. (November 1992). Sunlight after the storm. SolarToday: 12.

46Campbell, C., and Laherrere, J. (March 1998). The end of cheapoil. Scientific American 278: 7879. Campbell and Laherrere basetheir predictions on the work of the late M. King Hubbard, whodemonstrated that for any significant deposit of a finite resource,its unchecked removal follows the pattern of a bell curve, peak-ing when about half of the material is gone. Using the curve totell the future of American oil production, Hubbard informedhis employers at Shell Oil in 1956 that the amount of petroleumextracted in the United States would peak in 1970. Sure enough,1970 came and American oil production began its decline. Otherlarge oil fields have also followed King Hubbards predictions.



144 Perlin

Shell Oil, like Campbell and Laherrere, has donesome scenario-planning based on the supply of anddemand for oil, and it has come to the same con-clusion, differing only in timing. Shell believes thatfossil energy sources may peak around 2020, whilethe global energy demand may triple by then. TheEurope-based oil company concluded, Renewableenergy sources need to cover a substantial part ofthe deficit that fossil fuels cannot supply. And withinrenewables, photovoltaics must play a major role. 47

To prepare for the new era, Shell Oil institutedits Shell Renewables division in 1997, which soon ex-pects to produce 45 MW of solar cells annually, equalto about 40% of the worlds 1997 production. Whena major oil company effectively projects the end ofthe fossil fuel age, Scientific American told its read-ers, and aggressively enters the photovoltaics mar-ket, it is a sure harbinger : : : [of] the future. 48 Withthe anticipated mandatory global curbs on fossil fuelemissions, as well as the end of low-priced oil, pho-tovoltaics will surely take center stage for the simplereason that there is no other nonpolluting energy op-tion that works as effectively almost everywhere, fromhigh above the Arctic Circle to Argentina, in SouthAfrica as well as Scandinavia, for Russians and forAustralians. Furthermore, a photovoltaic system doesnot have to intrude on uninhabited terrain or spawnmiles of transmission lines, cluttering formerly openvistas as other generators of electricity must, since itsplacement can be confined to areas already in use byhumans, such as rooftops.

In a deregulated electric market, photovoltaicshas a much better chance to flourish than large solarmirror installations or wind machines. Steve Taylor,who worked on one of Americas large solar power

Although petroleum could be mined from shale deposits, sludge,and tar sands, not only would this cost much more, its extractionand use would pile new environmental problems onto the old.Exploiting shale and tar sands calls for strip mining. While extract-ing the oil pollutants get added to the air, including greenhousegases. Oil sludge contains heavy metals and sulfurs that wouldpoison the atmosphere. Campbell and Laherrere, The End ofCheap Oil. Switching to synthetic fuels would also hasten cli-mate change as their manufacture and use release many of thegases implicated in global warming. Macdonald, G. (1988). Im-pact of energy strategies on climate change. In Preparing for Cli-mate Change; A Cooperative Approach (North American Confer-ence on Preparing for Climate Change, Washington, D.C., 2729October 1987), Government Institutes, Rockville, MD, p. 217.

47Interview with Dr. Reinholdt Gregor, Shell International,Hamburg, Germany.

48Beardsley, T. (September 1994). Turning green, Science and busi-ness. Scientific American 271: 97.

plants, explains: With deregulation, youre going toget all sorts of power producers and suppliers hav-ing limited capital and a limited area in which to buildpower plants. When they want to add capacity to theirgrid, theyre not going to have the money or the area,literally hundreds and hundreds of acres, that an effec-tive [solar] power tower [or wind farm] requires, butthey could find enough rooftops where photovoltaicscould go up.49

Ever since the first solar cells traveled into space,photovoltaics has succeeded because the technologyhas always vied with the continually rising expenseof delivering electricity to nonwired consumers. Thebeauty of photovoltaics is that it requires no centralplant or delivery lines, and it can be tailored toany power need from milliwatt to megawatt. Photo-voltaics, for example, allows an anthropologist to runa laptop computer in the Orinoco wilderness with thesame ease and cost effectiveness as that with which thetransit authority in Las Vegas can run security lightingfor its bus shelters.

Photovoltaics is on the threshold of becominga major energy source. Don Osborn of the Sacra-mento Municipal Utility Department notes, Photo-voltaics has finally reached the point where, withina reasonable time framein a decade or lesswecan clearly expect solar cells to provide electricity ona widespread scale. 50 What the technology has ac-complished so far presents but an inkling of things tocome. The industry has barely tapped the vast mar-kets for its products, like the 2.5 billion people whostill live without electricity. Once those selling photo-voltaics make serious inroads into this potential cus-tomer base, Well look back in time and say [that] a10-megawatt plant, the average size of todays pho-tovoltaics, manufacturing facility, was an interestingpilot line, predicts Chris Scherring, an internationalphotovoltaics consultant.51

In 1956, publicists at Bell Laboratories madea bold prediction: The ability of transistors to op-erate on very low power : : : gives solar [cells] greatpotential and it seems inevitable that the two Bellinventions will be closely linked in many impor-tant future developments that will profoundly influ-ence the art of living. 52 Already the tandem use

49Interview with Steve Taylor, Edison Technology Solutions.50Interview with Don Osborn.51Interview with Chris Scherring.52Bell Systems press release, September 1956. AT&T Archives, Box

#1960301, Warren, NJ.




of transistors and solar cells in satellites, navigationaids, microwave repeaters, and televisions, radios, andcassette players in the developing worldand a myr-iad of other applicationshas turned the Bell pre-diction to fact. It takes no wild leap of imaginationto expect the transistor/solar cell revolution to con-

tinue until it encompasses every office and home in theworld.

Thanks to solar cells powering devices from spaceto earth, people everywhere will enjoy the benefits ofelectricity without doing harm to their home, planetearth.

the silent revolution continues

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