the science behind terrestrial carbon sequestration

The Science Behind Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration?

John KadyszewskiWinrock InternationalHouston, TexasNovember 3, 2005

“The Business of Carbon Sequestration and Forestation”, Greater Houston Partnership

2©Winrock International 2005

How do Ecosystems Sequester Carbon?

Photosynthesis (P)fixes CO2

Respiration (R)releases CO2

P P

R

R

Photosynthesis exceeds respiration, resulting in storage of carbon


Where is Carbon Sequestered?Live biomass• Trees• Understory• Roots

Dead biomass• Standing• Down

• Coarse• Fine

Wood productsSoil

“Carbon Pools”


At What Rate Does Carbon Accumulate?

Photosynthesis (P)fixes CO2

Respiration (R)releases CO2

P P

R

R

1-5 t C/ha.yr

0.1-0.5 t C/ha.yr


What is a Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Project?

Project-based carbon benefits are the difference between the selected “carbon pools” in the with-project and without-project cases


Terrestrial Sequestration Options

Afforestation

Change inTillage

GrasslandRestoration

Agricultural Land

Afforestation

ChangeManagement

GrasslandRestoration

Grazing Land

Extend Rotation

Change Species

ChangeManagement

Conservation

Forest Land

Risks

Co-Benefits

Accessory Data

State


AfforestationConvert agricultural or grazing land back to forest• Return to native

forest• Convert to forest land

for timber production

Mixed ConifersSource: Tim Pearson, Winrock International


Afforestation

Convert to forest land with fast-growing species

Source: Jon Johnson, Washington State University

Hybrid Poplar 28 years old 110 feet tall 32 in. dbh


Growth Rates for Trees

Douglas Fir 4 dry t/acre/yr ~50 year rotation

Hybrid Poplar 10 dry t/acre/yr 6-8 year rotation

Source: Jon Johnson Associate Professor Washington State University

9 years diameter growth


Conserve ForestsStop forest conversion to non-forestLongleaf pine (120 year old forest)• 174 tC/ha

Redwood (150 year old forest)• 478 tC/ha

Source: Tim Pearson, Winrock International


Winrock Carbon Measurement #1Classify land area into strata with similar characteristicsCollect ground data to determine variability within each strata Insert ground data into Spatial Information Package Set number of permanent plots needed to achieve target level of precision


Winrock Carbon Measurement #2Prepare Standard Operating ProceduresRecommend frequency of monitoringDevise Quality Assurance/ Quality Control PlanDetermine need for compliance monitoringPrepare plan for archiving data


Accuracy and PrecisionStatistical samplingReport results with error barsTrade-off between cost and precision• Expected variability affects number of plots • Fixed and variable costs• Different project classes have different

measurement costs


Establish Permanent Plots

Each plot is permanently marked and georeferenced.


Measure Aboveground BiomassMeasure diameter at breast height for all trees within the boundaries of the permanent plot – carbon estimated from regression equations


Measuring Understory and Fine Litter

Use clip plots (60 cm diameter frame) to sample herbaceous vegetation and litter within the permanent plotCollect total fresh weight and dry a sub-sample to calculate dry biomass


Measuring Dead WoodFor standing dead trees estimate biomass using regression equations or volume from detailed measurementsUse line intersect method for lying dead wood

Sample dead wood for density estimate


Sampling Soils for Organic Carbon

Photo by Matt Delaney

Collect one sample for bulk density

Photo by Matt Delaney

Photo by André Ferreti

Collect 4 samples, mix well and sieve through 2 mm meshscreen

Expose mineral soil surfaceDig 30 cm x 30 cm pit or take soil core

Air dry (not in direct sun) and send to lab for C analysis


Cinergy Entergy

Reducing Measurement Costs

Aerial Measurements


Aerial Measurements Using High Resolution 3D Imagery


Aerial Sample Plots


Labor Needed for Aerial vs Field Plots

Step M3DADI approach Conventional field approach

Prepare the plane and collect imagery

24 --

Processing the imagery or field data†

65 0.13

Collect and record plot measurements-time per plot

0.71 3.4

Enter data into spreadsheets-time per plot

0.25 0.75

Estimated total time to sample 202 plots* 283 865


Project Issues

BaselinesLeakage Reversibility (Permanence)• Duration• Risk of LossAdditionalityMeasurement and Monitoring


Can these activities make a difference?Global estimates of the potential amount of land available and potential amount of C that could be sequestered and conserved by forest management practices on this land between 1995 to 2050. Latitudinal Practice Area C sequestered belt (Mha) & conserved (billion tons) Boreal Forestation 95 2.4 Temperate Forestation 113 11.8 Agroforestry 7 0.7 14 Tropics Forestation 67 16.4 Agroforestry 63 6.3 Regeneration 217 11.5-28.7 Slow deforestation 138 10.8-20.8 46-73 Total 700 60-87

*The amount of C conserved and sequestered here is equivalent to 12-15% of the business-as-usual fossil fuel emissions over the same time period

From Brown et al. 1996, Second Assessment Report of IPCC; Kauppi and Sedjo 2000, Third Assessment Report, IPCC


Multiple Additional Environmental Benefits

WatershedIntegrity

WaterQuality

ReducedNon-Point

Water

Reduced Costfor Insurance

Reduced FloodDamage

ReducedNon-Point

Flood Control

EndangeredSpecies

Parks andReserves

Wetlands

Streams

ExpandedHabitat

Biodiversity

Non-timberforest products

Tourism

ForestProducts

WaterSupply

New IncomeSources

Co-Benefits

DOE Regional Partnership

Preliminary results from “Carbon Supply from Sequestration Activities on Agriculture and Forest Lands for SECARB Partnership”, Winrock International, September 2005.


Potential Terrestrial Carbon Supply from Afforestation in SECARB Region

00$2.40 per metric ton CO2

0.045$2.40 per metric ton CO2

27.33485$20 per metric ton CO2


Grazing land afforestation28.03881$20 per metric ton CO2


Crop land afforestation

Million acresMillion t CO2Activity after 40 years


Potential C Supply (t Carbon) by County for Afforestation after 40 yr

< 1,000,0001,000,001 - 2,000,0002,000,001 - 3,000,0003,000,001 - 4,000,0004,000,001 - 5,000,0005,000,001 - 6,000,0006,000,001 - 7,000,0007,000,001 - 8,000,0008,000,001 - 9,000,000> 9,000,001

t Carbon

Croplands Grazing lands


Potential C supply ($/t C) for afforestation after 40 yr

< $30.00$30.01 - $50.00$50.01 - $70.00$70.01 - $90.00$90.01 - $110.00$110.01 - $130.00$130.01 - $150.00$150.01 - $170.00$170.01 - $190.00> $190.01

Croplands Grazing lands

Divide $/t C by 3.67 to get $/t CO2


Options for Cofiring BiomassBlend biomass with coal on the conveyor belt and feed through the pulverizer– estimated cost $100-200/kw• Limited to < 3% heat from biomass except

with cyclone boilers that could blend up to 10%

Retrofit to add biomass-only injection point – estimated cost $200-300/kw


Potential Terrestrial Sequestration

20 yrs – 5.7 M tons40 yrs – 17.0 M tons



Change in Carbon Stocks

113,000 acres

565,000 MT80 MW

70,600 acres

353,000 MT50 MW

42,000 acres

212,000 MT30 MW

Land Required

Biomass Fuel Required

Power Output

-- Assuming Heat Rate of 11,000 BTU/kWh and Capacity Factor 80%-- Assuming conversion to forest with 20 or 40 year rotations


Land Requirements~ 5 million acres available within 50 miles

20 yrs – $20.9 Million40 yrs – $62.3Million

~2.3%113,000 acres

20 yrs – $12.8 Million40 yrs – $38.5 Million

~1.4%70,600 acres

20 yrs – $7.7 Million40 yrs – $23.1 Million

< 1 %42,000 acres

Carbon Sequestration Value at $2/MT CO2

PercentageLand Required


Carbon Price: Dollars per Hectare -- 40 Years


Environmental BenefitsCarbon benefits• Displace coal -- annual benefit• Stimulate changes in land use that result

in higher average carbon stocks

Can reduce NOx emissionsBiomass usually has no sulfur or mercuryLow ash and less particulates


SummaryTerrestrial carbon sequestration projects can be measured accurately at low costNew aerial methods will reduce costs furtherAfforestation is the largest option available in the SE region of the USCo-firing biomass fuels with coal could produce significant emission reductions


Questions or Comments:

John KadyszewskiWinrock International

(703) 525-9430,ext [email protected]

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