the rise of ecommerce & elearning: opportunities & challenges

Eilif Trondsen, Ph.D.Program Director

28 October1999

The Rise of eCommerce & eLearning:

Opportunities & Challenges

The Rise of eCommerce & eLearning:

Opportunities & Challenges

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LoDLearning on Demand

© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.

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Agenda Agenda

The large Context

Selected eC & eL Developments*

What’s Ahead?

New Business Opportunities

Emerging Challenges

* eC=eCommerce, eL= eLearning;


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The Large Context

Historical Perspective on eC

The Large Context

Historical Perspective on eC“eCommerce is to the Information Revolution what the

Railroad was to the Industrial Revolution—a totally new,

totally unexpected development. And like the railroad

170 years ago, eCommerce is creating a new and distinct

boom, rapidly changing the economy, society, and politics.”

Peter Drucker, “Beyond the

Information Revolution,” The

Atlantic Monthly, October 1999


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The Large Context

Historical Perspective on eC

The Large Context

Historical Perspective on eC“In the new mental geography created by the railroad, humanity

mastered distance. In the mental geography of eCommerce,

distance has been eliminated. There is only one economy and

only one market. One consequence of this is that every business

must become globally competitive, even if it manufactures or

sells only within a local or regional market.”





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The Large Context

Drucker on eCommerce

The Large Context

Drucker on eCommerce“eCommerce is profoundly changing economies, markets, and

industry structures; products and their flow; consumer

segmentation, consumer values, and consumer behavior; jobs

and labor markets. But the impact may be even greater on

societies and politics and, above all, on the way we see the

world and ourselves in it.”





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The Large Context

Drucker on learningThe Large Context

Drucker on learning“Productivity in knowledge work and service work demands

that we build continuous learning into the organization.

Knowledge demands continuous learning because it is

constantly changing. To obtain the improvement in productivity

which the post-capitalist society now needs, the organization

has to become both a learning and teaching organization.”

Peter Drucker, Post-Capitalist Society (1993)


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The Large Context

Towards eLearning: Drivers

The Large Context

Towards eLearning: Drivers

New learning infrastructures: intranet & Internet

“Time to knowledge”

Distributed workforce

Cost and competitive pressures

Need to integrate learning into work processes

Arrival of “Nintendo Generation” into workforce


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Selected eC & eL Developments

“Internuts Mania”Selected eC & eL Developments

“Internuts Mania”New rules for new economy

Virtuous circle of “.com”market evaluations

Building the new Internet infrastructure

Shift from products to services—HP introducing E-Speak: “universal language for eServices”

Proliferation of alliances

Internet bringing flood of innovations (in both products and business models) and start-ups


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New times..new alliances..


New times..new alliances..

“The alliance between the two giants [Ford and Microsoft; to receive auto orders online] in their respective industries underscores how eCommerce is challenging traditional ways of doing business, and pushing the high-technology and manufacturing industries closer together.”

Wall Street Journal

September 20, 1999


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Mayfield Fund investment


Mayfield Fund investment

Wirelesscompanies

Satellitecompanies

Telecommunictionscompanies eCommerce

Infrastructurecompanies

••

•

•

High-speed data & TV wide area networks

Fiber-optic companies

•

eCommercservices Enterprise

applications& Tools

Web and Digital TV

applications

Digital media chips Communications chips

Internet Infrastructuresoftware

Internet Infrastructurecompanies

•


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Top eCommerce sites


Top eCommerce sites

Company Product Revenue*

Amazon.com Books, CDs, videos 307

E*Trade Stock trading 215

Onsale Computer equipment, auctions 149

Ameritrade Stock trading 139

Peapod Groceries 69

CDnow Music 33

Cyberian Outpost Computer gear 30

N2K** Music 25

Beyond.com Software 24

* Million dollars; June 1987-June 1998

** Merged with CDnow Source: Internet World


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Nothing but ‘NetSelected eC & eL Developments

Nothing but ‘NetInternet investments are commanding a growing share of venture capitalists’

total outlays

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

1998 1999

$1

$2

$3

$4

30

40

50

60%

Internet investments (billions); left scale

Percent of all venture capital outlays (right scale)


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eL: Replay of eC experience?


eL: Replay of eC experience?

Growing media attention and “hype”

Virtual universities versus corporate learning

Rising innovation and investments

eLearning gaining top management attention

Learning portals emerging: on intranets and Internet


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Cisco: Leadership on both fronts


Cisco: Leadership on both fronts

eCommerce:

Handles 78% of its orders over Net and never touches half of them

70% of 20,000 resumes montly via Net

eLearning:

eLearning Executive Council

Building internal learning architecture


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What’s Ahead

Growth of online services

What’s Ahead

Growth of online services

Travel Arrangements

Retail Stock Brokerage

Automobile Commissions

Concert and Sports Tickets

1998

2002

10 20 30 40 50

Source: SRI ConsultingPercent online


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What’s Ahead

Growth of online products

What’s Ahead

Growth of online products

Consumer Software

Personal Computers

Books

Music

Videos

Specialty gifts

Flowers

Toys

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

1998

2002

Percent online

2020

80

60

50

75

70

50

10

50

Source: SRI Consulting


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What’s Ahead

Distribution Space with Hybrid Strategies

What’s Ahead

Distribution Space with Hybrid Strategies

On land

Both OnlineAnd on land

Onlineonly

Marketplace creatorcontrols distribution

Product creatorcontrols distribution

The Brick- and Mortar-StoreStrength: Shopping Experience

The Expert Strength:Expertise

The Online RetailerStrength: Convenience

The Online ProducerStrength: Loyalty

Macy’s Radio Shack

Macys.comRadio ShackOnline

HollywoodVideo

Garden EscapeMagazine

Reel.com Garden.com

The Gap

Gap Online

GatewayCountry Stores

In-StoreBraches

GatewaySecurity First

Schwab.com

Charles Schwab


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What’s Ahead?

Top management will (finally) get it...

What’s Ahead?

Top management will (finally) get it...

Despite enormous publicity and rapid growth in both BTB and BTC eCmany in top management have not yet understood what is coming…….

“Out of 119 board directors and CEOs of global corporations surveyed, not one believed that the effects of e-business was an important problem facing their company.”

PriceWaterhouseCooper

It is surprising how overall technology goals are not in line with how these companies [SMEs surveyed] use the Internet. The Web site is more of a toy than a business tool.”

The Yankee Group

BTB: Business to Business; BTC: Business to Consumer


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What’s Ahead?

…and laggards will catch up

What’s Ahead?

…and laggards will catch up

“The recent e-Business & Technology Survey conduced by the CutterConsortium indicates that 65% of business lack an overall e-Commercestrategy, and almost a fourth of companies do not have a basic businessimplementation plan for e-commerce.”

InternetWeek, September 6, 1999

The study, “e-Business in a Connected World,” shows that many UK directors fail to understand the impact of technology, believing that business on the Internet is “someone else’s job.”

The Financial Times, September 29, 1999


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What’s Ahead

Technology remaining key driver

What’s Ahead

Technology remaining key driver

Greater bandwidth will stimulate growth of both eC and eL

3-D graphics found to boost online spending

Enrich content for eLearning

Cheaper and better computers and portable devices—for both eCommerce and eLearning

Wireless communication will drive major change on both eCommerce and eLearning fronts


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What’s Ahead

More effective eLearning What’s Ahead

More effective eLearning

Greater supply, variety, and higher quality content

More dynamic learning modules

Improved interactivity while learning

Greater use of learning communities

Beyond courses to smaller learning “chunks”


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What’s Ahead

Increased integration of eC and eLWhat’s Ahead

Increased integration of eC and eL

EmploymentServicesManufacturing

eCommerceCommerceWeb-BasedCollaborationKnowledgeManagement

eCommerceeServiceseLearningLearningCommunities

$


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eC: Shift to Software & Services


eC: Shift to Software & Services

Outsourcing/hosting services

Customer relationship management—Web-based

Unified messaging—voice, fax, and e-mail

Growing range of eC software

Logistics and fulfillment for eC


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New needs emerging from web


New needs emerging from web

Capture, management, and protection of Web-based data

Analytical tools for creating value from Web-generated data

Design of product/service that simplify—reduce complexity and/or uncertainty

Creation of highly personalized Web experiences


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eL: Profiting from eLearning


eL: Profiting from eLearning

Create learning modules and content for specific market segments

Intermediate/aggregate learning content

Organize and mediate communities of interest

Design innovative learning software—and demonstrating improved work performance

Meet growing life-long-learning needs


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New services:Corporate portals, collaboration tools

(XML, visto.com, hotoffice.com, SAP)


eL: Growth at interfacesNew Business Opportunities

eL: Growth at interfaces

New services:Universities, learning portals

(ehow.com, learn2.com)

Topic of recent 4 hourSeminar at SRI


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Creating value via eLearning


Creating value via eLearning

Intrafirm

Supply Chain

Value

Chain

Value-Added Resellers and Other Channels

• Integration• Product managers• Profit centers• Component-based

Customers


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eLearning dashboardNew Business Opportunities

eLearning dashboardWeb SitesLearning DashboardCoursesDiscussionGroupsSeminarsand LecturesPersonalizedNews

IT andeCommerceIndustry andCompetitiveIntelligenceOtherOtherOtherAt WorkAt School/UniversityLaptop with WirelessInternet Connection

At HomeOn the Road

DatabasewithInformationfor CompleteLearnerProfile


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Emerging Challenges

How to keep up with pace of change?

Emerging Challenges

How to keep up with pace of change?

High Uncertainty about future

Compressed time frames to

make decisions

Increasing difficulty catching-up

as pace increases

Increasing penalty from mistakes

as competitive intensity

increases

Planning is limitedReacting is insufficientTraditional strategies of “build and defend” position” are inadequate

Source: Kathleen Eishenhardt; Stanford University


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Emerging Challenges

Creating dynamic filtering mechanisms

Emerging Challenges

Creating dynamic filtering mechanisms

Too many opportunities?—staying focused…

…while watching external trends—and threats

Too many distractions and information overload

Merging of work & leisure

Finding right balance between the new and old


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Contact InformationContact Information

Eilif Trondsen, Ph.D.

Program Director

Tel: 650-859-2665

Fax: 650-859-4544

E-mail: [email protected]

Business Intelligence Center: http://future.sri.com

LoD: http://future.sri.com/LoD-PS.shtml

the rise of ecommerce & elearning: opportunities & challenges

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