the precautionary principle in risk assessment and management: a socio-cognitive perspective tomasz...

The Precautionary The Precautionary PrinciplePrinciple

in Risk Assessment and Management: in Risk Assessment and Management: a Socio-Cognitive Perspectivea Socio-Cognitive Perspective

Tomasz Adam Zimny,

Adam Maria Gadomski

9 November 2007ENEA, Research Center CASACCIA

http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it/SC-CRESCO

Presentation outline

1. Idea and history of the Precautionary Principle (PP)

2. The Precautionary Principle in relation to the vulnerabilities of engineering Risk Assessment and Management

3. Application aspects: PP in socio-cognitive decision-making modeling

4. PP and Large Complex Critical Infrastructures Networks management.

Precautionary Principle in Risk Assessment and Management: a Socio-Cognitive Perspective (a preliminary study)

The idea and history The idea and history of the Precautionary of the Precautionary PrinciplePrinciple

The precautionary approachThe precautionary approach

The precautionary approach has been

applied since the beginning of

humanityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caveman

• Idea and history

• PP approach

• Application aspects in DM

• PP & LCCI

The precautionary The precautionary approachapproach

Lack of precaution often resulted in unacceptable, disastrous consequences


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

The precautionary The precautionary approachapproach

The lack of precautionary approach may lead to disastrous consequences. The precautionary approach may also concern events that seem not very probable or hardly possible at all.


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

The The PPrecautionary recautionary PPrinciplerinciple

A concept developed strongly since the 1980s

Advises to take measures aimed at avoidance of unwanted events in case of insufficient data and knowledge as to their severity or occurrence

Is introduced in many legal documentsInfluences risk management policies• Idea and

history

• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

The PP The PP brief historybrief history

1970 – mentioned in a draft of Clean Air Act in Germany

1984 – The North Sea Treaties1992 – UN Rio Declaration2002 – EU Communication on

Precautionary Principle[5]• Idea and history

• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

The Precautionary PrincipleThe Precautionary Principle: : examplesexamples

Versions of the Precautionary Principle1.UN World Charter for Nature: “[When] potential adverse effects [of activities] are not fully understood, the activities should not proceed.” [1]

2.London Declaration (Second International Conference on the Protection of the North Sea 1987): “Accepting that, in order to protect the North Sea from possibly damaging effects of the most dangerous substances, a precautionary approach is necessary which may require action to control inputs of such substances even before a causal link has been established by absolutely clear scientific evidence.” [1]

3.EU communication on the PP, 2000 "The precautionary principle applies where scientific evidence is insufficient, inconclusive or uncertain and preliminary scientific evaluation indicates that there are reasonable grounds for concern that the potentially dangerous effects on the environment, human, animal or plant health may be inconsistent with the high level of protection chosen by the EU”[1]

Usually these principles apply in specific domains of current main problems and frequently by examples


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

The Precautionary PrincipleThe Precautionary Principle

The choice of PP version influences the risk management decisions and their outcomes.

It influences such important factors of management, as: activation of d-m process duration of d-m process, efficacy of decisions, cost of risk management.


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

The The Precautionary Principle – Precautionary Principle – working definitionworking definition and and explanationexplanation

When human activities may lead to morally unacceptable harm that is scientifically plausible but uncertain, actions shall be taken to avoid or diminish that harm[1]


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

The precautionary principle is a moral and political principle which states that if an action or policy might cause severe or irreversible harm to the public, in the absence of a scientific consensus. that

harm would not ensue, …The precautionary principle involves complex systems where the

consequences of actions may be unpredictable.

(Wikipedia, 5 Nov.2007)

Examples of Examples of Precautionary approachPrecautionary approach or or the consequences of its neglectingthe consequences of its neglecting

1854 London Cholera Epidemic[1] ◦A decision to remove a water-pump handle in a situation of insufficient knowledge between water and the spread of the illness helped to limit the spread of the epidemic.

Recombinant DNA debate in the 1970s[2]

◦A decision to suspend research with rDNA. It was made out of precaution, we don’t know, what would have happened if it was not made.

The case of asbestos[1] ◦Negligence of symptoms of damaging effects of exposure to asbestos lead to multiple diseases.


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Area of Area of the the PP approachPP approach

Expected and assessable positive and negative results

Area for precautionary approach: a not sufficiently defined set of plausible events

Object/result of decision

PP is focused on the events which could be a threat.


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

PP and PP and vulnerabilities of vulnerabilities of engineering Risk engineering Risk Assessment andAssessment and ManagementManagement

The concept of riskThe concept of riskRisk is one of complex indicators of human – environment interactions. There are several understandings of the term „risk”.They relate to: an unwanted event which may or may not occur the cause of an unwanted event which may or may not occur the probability of an unwanted event which may or may not occur the statistical expectation value of an unwanted event which may or may not occur.[3]

possibile consequences of a decision. damage, Risk = Damage x Probability (VITA Consortium, 2005)

Numerous technical meanings are specific for the discipline, • Idea and history

• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

From the most general systemic perspective: risk is proportional to the assessed losses and probability that they may appear.

Regardless from the definition of risk, it is always connected with a decision – making process.

NO DECISION NO RISK

Decision ( Risk, Hope, <other attributes>)

Risk (Probability (E), Losses (EO))

Hope (Probability, Benefits)

where: E – an event-threat, O – an object of losses.

The concept of risk – Top-down The concept of risk – Top-down viewview


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Legal Legal approachesapproaches to to riskrisk

Law regulates decision making and also attempts to determine critical risk in multiple domains of activities and when risk is not determined but a threat is plausible.

Not only when

if Risk > RiskCrit then Decision ( Risk, Hope, . ) is

performed.Intervention domains:environmenthealtheconomytransportationInfrastructures


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

RiskCrit - maximal risk value

accepted yet by social actors in their routine activity.

Legal Legal approachesapproaches to to riskriskThe approaches to risk often lack harmonization or uniformity related to:different understanding of the termdifferent perceptiondifferent assessment strategiesdifferent management strategies

Regulations dealing with the issues of risk tend to be separated.


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Legal Legal approachesapproaches to to riskrisk

An observation: The areas of human activity are interdependent.

Risk management regulations should take this under consideration.


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Threat criteria

Risk criteria

Legal approachesand norms def.

Engineering risks assessment and management

EngineeringEngineering riskriskss assessment assessment and managementand management (ENEA-HID model, 2007)(ENEA-HID model, 2007)

Interest Domain

Probability Possible Losses

New search

Intervention

NONOYESYES

Proper risk management

Tolerable?

Threat

Risk Estimation

Threat criteria

Socio-cognitive & legislative factors

Risk criteria


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Basic Requirements for engineering risk assessment and management: sufficient data/information for the calculation of

probability of possible and undesirable event(s) clear criteria for seriousness of threat classification sufficient data/information for the assessment of

possible losses.Weakness: Impossibility of assessing and managing risks in a situation of unknown and unexpected but theoretically possible events.

EngineeringEngineering t technological echnological riskriskss assessment and assessment and managementmanagement


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

PP and PP and vvulnerabilities of ulnerabilities of eengineering ngineering r risk isk aassessment and ssessment and mmanagementanagement

Engineering Risk Assessment and Management

Possible Threats

Tech. assessed responses Socially requested

responses


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

PP and PP and vvulnerabilities of ulnerabilities of eengineering ngineering rrisk isk aassessment and ssessment and mmanagementanagementSummarizing:

PP should provide directives and initial criteria for technical decision-making in areas of uncertainty.

However it has several weaknesses: PP elongates the d-m process increases costs of risk management difficulties with deciding on adequate measures often effects of its application are hard to predict.


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Precautionary Precautionary Principle in socio-Principle in socio-cognitive decision-cognitive decision-making modelingmaking modeling((application aspects)application aspects)

Aim of theAim of the current work current workOur goal is to conceptualize the PP in the context of a general risk management paradigm.

It requires a computational modeling of socio-cognitive decisional processes including legislative aspects of the management and policy making..

In particular, an attempt to answer questions How the precautionary principle works as a part of the dynamic normative system.

For the reason of the complexity of the problem (numerous organizational and socio-legislative factors and socio-economical constrains the top-down object-based goal-oriented research methodology (TOGA meta-theory, A.M. Gadomski, 1990-93) is applied.

PP will be analysed in the context of preferences, knowledge and information of decision-makers with different roles. It should lead to the development of computational models for the simulation of multi-actor decision-making in the frame of intelligent socio-cognitive networks.

The work is a contribution to the ENEA’s long-term large RTD program: “Progetto Governo e Sicurezza Reti Tecnologiche e Energetiche”, and, in particular, to its more specific projects, as national CRESCO and EU IRRIIS.


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Ongoing activityOngoing activityThe model under investigation is aimed at

determining, What is PP ? How threat and risk management policies and

decision-making depend on:

1. The version of the Precautionary Principle applied

2. The Information, Preferences and Knowledge, the agent possesses

3. The level on which the decisions are made:◦ individual◦ organizational◦ social◦ political

4. The costs of application of PP (economical perspective)


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Human-dependent factors are often Human-dependent factors are often difficult to measure, but they play a difficult to measure, but they play a hugue role in the risk management hugue role in the risk management processprocess

Interest Domain

Probability Possible Losses

New search

Intervention

NONOYESYES

Proper risk management

Tolerable?

Threat

Risk Estimation

Threat criteria

Socio-cognitive factors & PP

Risk criteria


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

ENEA’s current Intervention domain

Domain of Activity

Domain of observation

Environment

Abstract Intelligent Agent

According to TOGA (Top-down Object-based Goal-oriented Approach ), threats/hazard /danger and risks (from external oserver viewpoint) are possible causes and consequences of the decisions of intelligent agents, carried out within their Environment.

Socio-cognitive approach:Socio-cognitive approach: recognition of risk domain recognition of risk domain according to TOGAaccording to TOGA


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Working hypothesis: TOGA provides top ontology and conceptualization frameworks sufficient for the definition and allocation of PP in managers’ and policy-makers socio-cognitive decision-making modeling.

Cause-consequences propagation

Where an intelligent agent comprises of Abstract Intelligent Agent and its physical carrier in the domain of activity.

The decisions of the agent depend on their Information, Preferences and Knowledge (IPK). They are also interdependent:

Agent’s Agent’s cognitive cognitive feartures feartures crucial in risk recognition and crucial in risk recognition and managementmanagement

I

P K

According to the TOGA meta-theory:

Information (1): data which represent state of agent’s domain of activity

Preferences, (P): ordered relations among states of the domain of activity of the agent which indicate a state with higher utility (preferred)

Knowledge, (K): everything that transforms (quantitatively/qualitatively) information into other information or knowledge or a preference.


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Universal Reasoning Paradigm -Universal Reasoning Paradigm - IPK in risk perceptionIPK in risk perception (TOGA

approach)

It means, that on IPK depends also, whether:

The possibility of an event is seen (perceived)

The event is regarded as potentially harmful (threat)

The probability of the event is seen as significant

The risk can be assessedThe assessed risk in some area is critical.

Risk (Probability, Losses, . ) = R (P(IPK), L(IPK), . )


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Risk recognition constrainsRisk recognition constrains according to the TOGA meta-theoryaccording to the TOGA meta-theory

Levels of risk perception (lack of sufficient I or K):

1. Agent doesn’t know about the existence of risk

2. The risk is perceived, but its attributes are insufficient to assess it (PP)

3. Information about risk attributes’ values is sufficient – assessment is possible.


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Risk recognition Risk recognition constrainsconstrains according to TOGA meta-theoryaccording to TOGA meta-theory

Technically assessable risk is perceived onlyon level 3.

Such perception is usually not possible in case of risk caused by socio-cognitive aspects of decision-making (human and organization factors).

PP approach is needed on level 2.• Idea and history

• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

Risk recognition constrainsRisk recognition constrains according to TOGA meta-theoryaccording to TOGA meta-theory

On the IPK depends the response to an event:

preventive (Level 3) precautionary (Level 2) other


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

The The organization organization decision-makingdecision-making context of context of PPPP (Universal Management Paradigm in (Universal Management Paradigm in TOGA)TOGA)

Decision

Precautionary Principle


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

The Precautionary The Precautionary Principle in the case of Principle in the case of Large Complex Critical Large Complex Critical Infrastructures (LCCI) Infrastructures (LCCI) networks management.networks management.

PP in the case of LCCI networks PP in the case of LCCI networks managementmanagement

The safety and service providing by Large Complex Critical Infrastructures Networks depends heavily on human and organization factors, difficult to assess (such as individual and group lack of I or K, as well as improper P).The PP approach is necessary to ensure decision-making and management which are related to the situations, when, large but unpredictable disasters are plausible, e. g. when the expected losses are very big and the probability is not possible to determine especially, when there is a lack of consensus on the managerial level of an organisation.Such situations exist for the reason of the cascading effect of treats and risk causes, when the losses generation process may propagate from one domain (environment, industry, society) to another and between different, interdependent LCCI systems (electricity network, telecommunication network, etc.).


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

See:Threat Taxonomy for Critical Infrastructures and Critical Infrastructure Risk

Aspects at EU-level, 01/07/06 http://www.hcss.nl/en/publication/308/Threat-Taxonomy-for-Critical-Infrastructures-and-C.html

PP in the case of LCCI networks PP in the case of LCCI networks managementmanagement

Management of these this type of uncertain situations requires: continuous, hierarchical, distributed, and locally autonomous decision-making.These numerous and coordinated d-m require legislative norms and criteria on different levels of organization structures, as well as, synchronized between cooperating organizations.

Remark:Because of the time constrains (under time limits), such decisions are inevitable and have to be performed independently on the currently available IPK and their distribution between involved decision-makers. Frequently in the case of unexpected hazard/threat, the time is not sufficient for a “regular technical risk assessment”, and PP becomes the necessity.


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

PP in the case of LCCI PP in the case of LCCI networks managementnetworks management

For these reasons the model in development will be especially focused on Human and Social Factors in LCCI risk management decision-making (planned research period: October 07 – January 08).


• PP approach


• PP & LCCI

“Logical interdependency means that the state of one infrastructure depends on the state of another infrastructure, usually via human decisions and actions. For example, a lower gas price increases the flow of gasoline and traffic congestion. In this case, the logical interdependency between the petroleum and transportation infrastructures is due to human decisions and actions and is not the result of a physical process. “

From: IIE Transactions. Toward modeling and simulation of critical national

infrastructure interdependencies. Publication 01-JAN-07http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-29493291_ITM

Some ReferencesSome References1. M. Kaiser, Lecture BioT ETHED: Risk & the Precautionary Principle, Brno, 3 July

20072. The Recombinant DNA debate,

http://www.ndsu.edu/instruct/mcclean/plsc431/debate/debate3.htm3. S. O. Hansson, Risk, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2007

Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/sum2007/entries/risk/

4. S. M. Rinaldi, J. P. Peerenboom, T. K. Kelly, Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, IEEE Control Systems Magazine, December 2001

5. World Commission on Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology, The Precautionary Principle, UNESCO, 2005

6. A.M. Gadomski, Modeling of Socio-Cognitive Vulnerability of Human Organizations: TOGA Meta-Theory Approach, Proc. of International Workshop on Complex Network and Infrastructure Protection, CNIP 2006 , 28- 29 March 2006, Rome, Italy. http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it/IRRIIS-ORG/Vulnerability-Poster2006.pdf

7. P. Sargeni, A.M. Gadomski, L’ergonomia cognitiva e l’identificazione della vulnerabilità di organizzazioni umane: organizzazioni umane: la prospettiva socio--cognitiva. Seminar ENEA-CAMO, 10 May 2006.

8. A. D'Ausilio, M. Caramia, A.M. Gadomski, A.Londei, M.Olivetti-Belardinelli. CRESCO-SOC-COG: Strategies, Competences and Objectives. ENEA-Sede. CRESCO Coordination Meeting, 5 July 2006 (ppt).

9. International documents related to the Large Critical Infrastructure Protections, EMSE 232, Disaster Newsletter, Nov.2006, Vol.11 - N. 2: http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~emse232, The George Washington University.

10. A.M. Gadomski. Human-Organization Crisis: Identification, Response & Recovery - A top-view, White paper. on the Web since 2004: http://192.107.74.146/gad-crisis.htm

Thank you for your attention.

The Precautionary Principle in Risk Assessment and Management: a Socio-Cognitive Perspective. T.A. Zimny, A.M. Gadomski, 2007

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the precautionary principle in risk assessment and management: a socio-cognitive perspective tomasz...

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