Celinda Lake

Lake Research Partners

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com

202.776.9066

The Populist MajorityAmericans Want An End To Business As Usual

May 22, 2014

THE SHRINKING MIDDLE CLASS

Three-quarters of voters say their own economic situation has gotten worse or stagnated over the past four years.

22%

36%

40%

1%

1%

Gotten better

Gotten worse

Stayed the same

Combo/Other

Unsure/Refused

Do you think that your personal economic situation has gotten better, worse, or stayed the same over the past four years?

The Tarrance Group/Lake Research Partners March 2014 Battleground PollMarch 16-20, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

3

Fewer Americans now classify themselves as middle-class, and more are using the lower class description.

Survey of 1,504 adults conducted Jan. 15-19, 2014.

4

Voters are extremely skeptical about their ability to attain the American Dream and overwhelmingly do not agree that the next generation will be better off than they are.

65

20

70

65

2

4

1

4

34

76

29

31

In America, anyone can get ahead if they workhard enough.

I think the next generation will be better offeconomically than I am now.

Our economy makes it too tough for the middleclass to make ends meet.

I am optimistic about where I will be financiallyfive years from now.

Agree Unsure Disagree

The Tarrance Group/Lake Research Partners March 2014 Battleground PollMarch 16-20, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Please listen carefully as I read each statement and tell me if you would agree or disagree with that particular statement.

5

THE URGENCY OF INEQUALITY

The wealthy are largely seen as doing very well in the current economy, while women, the middle class, and particularly those living in poverty are not doing well.

68

19

10

8

4

5

13

34

27

25

18

8

Thewealthy*

Men

You andyour family

Women

The middleclass

Those livingin poverty*

Very Well Fairly well

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal Survey. Conducted by Hart Research Associates & Public Opinion Strategies. January 22-25, 2014

I’m going to mention a number of groups of people and for each one, please tell me how well the economy works for that type of person – very well, fairly well, just somewhat well, not that well, or

not well at all.

*Asked of half the sample

39

7

Americans resoundingly believe income inequality is a significant problem in today’s society.

49%

30%

8%

9%

4%

Big problem

Somewhat of a problem

Not much of a problem

Not a problem at all

Unsure/Refused

How big of a problem would you say that income inequality is? Would you say it is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, not much of a problem, or not a problem at all?

The Tarrance Group/Lake Research Partners March 2014 Battleground PollMarch 16-20, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

8

There is striking consensus around the desire – the need – for government to intervene on grounds of economic fairness.

54

64

72

59

1

2

3

3

45

34

25

38

People who work hard for a living and play by the rulesnever seem to get ahead.

The economic rules in this country unfairly favor the rich.

Middle class people have it the toughest in our economicsystem. There are assistance programs for the poor andtax breaks for the rich, but no real help for middle class

people.

The government should be doing something to reduce thegap between the rich and everyone else.

Agree Unsure Disagree

The Tarrance Group/Lake Research Partners March 2014 Battleground PollMarch 16-20, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Please listen carefully as I read each statement and tell me if you would agree or disagree with that particular statement.

9

A FOCUS ON JOB CREATION

Creating jobs and reducing the deficit are voters’ top priorities for the Obama administration and Congress.

273839

45494951

5456575960

6674

91

Addressing the issue of climate change

Enacting pension and entitlement reform

Passing new immigration legislation

Reducing income inequality

Reforming the nation's intelligence system

Using federal aid $ to encourage colleges to offer…

Increasing the minumum wage

Fix and keep the new health care law

Reforming Social Security and Medicare

Withdrawing almost all combat troops from Afghanistan

Closing corporate tax loopholes

Addressing Iran's nuclear program

Ensuring all children have access to pre-school education

Reducing the federal budget deficit

Creating Jobs

Should this be an absolute priority for the Obama administration and THIS year’s Congress, is it something that can be delayed until next year, or something that should not be pursued?

% Saying Absolute

Top PriorityFor This Year

NBC/Wall Street Journal. January 2014

11

12

62

59

68

54

58

37

40

31

45

41

24

22

26

24

23

20

21

15

29

21

Total

Non-college men

Non-college women

College educated men

College educated women

Majorities of Americans with and without college degrees want the government to focus on job creation, even if it has short-term deficit impacts.

Darker colors indicate intensity (Strongly disagree/ Strongly agree)

Disagree Agree

LRP survey of 1,515 adults, including oversamples of African American women, Latinas, Asian/Pacific Islander women, and men and women ages 18 to 29, conducted on behalf of the Ms. Foundation for Women. March 15-24, 2011.

Now, here is a statement about the economy. Please mark whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: The government should focus on creating jobs even if it means increasing the deficit in the short-term.

13

4513

109

64

33

52

Education

Health care

Affordable housing

Crime and public safety

Public transportation

Public water systems

Sidewalks and street lighting

Other

None of these

Don't know

A strong plurality (45%) of Americans consider education the area most worthy of government investment to create jobs.

LRP survey of 1014 adults nationwide, on behalf of Corporate Accountability International. January 27-30, 2012.

Most Likely to Prioritize Education:• Independent, Lean Democrat—63%• Homemakers—60% • African-American women—59% • African-Americans <50—59% • African-Americans—57% • Hispanics—57% • Mothers—55%

Now I am going to read you a list of services in which government invests to create jobs and rebuild the economy. Please tell me which ONE of these you think is the MOST important for

government to invest in to create jobs and rebuild the economy.

Turnout targets are responsive to a range of messages that focus on concrete efforts to help working people and expand opportunity by raising wages, improving schools, and creating jobs.

Hart Research Associates, “Ten Things Democrats Need to Know about the Economy to Win in 2014.”

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TAX FAIRNESS

The Republicans have a strong message on cutting taxes and removing regulations, which will continue to be their counterargument to populist economic policies.

43%

45%

4%

3%

5%

Closing the gap

Cutting taxes/removing regulations

Combo/Other

None

Unsure/Refused

What do you think would be the best way to make sure that everyone can move up economically? Would you say it is reducing the gap between the wealthiest Americans

and the rest of the country or cutting taxes and removing unnecessary regulations?

The Tarrance Group/Lake Research Partners March 2014 Battleground PollJanuary 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

16

But two-thirds of voters believe that the richest 2% should be paying more in taxes.

I'm going to read you descriptions of different groups of people and institutions, and for each one, I would like you to tell me whether you feel this group should be paying more in taxes than it does today, should be paying less in taxes than it does today, or is paying about the right amount today.

Americans for Tax Fairness survey among 1,009 voters. Conducted October 25-30, 2013 by Hart Research Associates.

April 2012 January 2013 October 2013

*darker shade indicates intensity

17

Voters agree that tax loopholes are the result of a system rigged in favor of the special interests.

REPUBLICANS: “America has the highest income tax rates on businesses in the world. We needtax reform that broadens the base by eliminating loopholes, which will allow us to reducecorporate tax rates. This kind of pro-growth tax reform will make the system simpler, more fair,grow our economy, and raise more revenue."

Agree strongly

50%

Agree strongly

21%

62%

30%

+32 Democrats

DEMOCRATS: “The tax system is rigged in favor of special interests against the middle class. Largecompanies like General Electric and Verizon pay no federal income taxes some years, while Appleavoids billions in taxes by stashing profits in offshore tax havens. It's about time big corporationsstarted living by the same rules as the rest of us.”

Americans for Tax Fairness survey of 1,009 voters. Conducted October 25-30, 2013 by Hart Research Associates.

Concerning corporate tax reform, with which statement do you agree more?

18

Voters approve of policies that would eliminate tax loopholes for millionaires and large corporations and move us closer to tax fairness.

PolicyStrongly Approve

Approve

Close tax loopholes to ensure that American corporations pay as much on foreign profits as they do on profits made in the United States. 59 79Eliminate tax loopholes for corporate meals and entertainment.

54 69Eliminate the loophole that allows Wall Street hedge fund managers to pay a lower tax rate than middle-class taxpayers. 53 68Pass the Buffett Rule, which sets a minimum income tax rate of thirty percent for millionaires to ensure they do not pay a lower tax rate than the middle class. 51 71Close loopholes that allow corporations and wealthy individuals to avoid paying U.S. taxes by shifting income to offshore tax havens. 50 62

Now I'd like to get your reaction to some tax and spending policies that may be considered by Congress for reducing the federal budget deficit. For each one, please tell me whether you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of this proposal.

Americans for Tax Fairness survey among 1,009 voters. Conducted October 25-30, 2013 by Hart Research Associates.

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In fact, swing voters are more likely to support public investments aimed at creating jobs if those investments are funded by closing tax loopholes for big corporations and the rich.

Hart Research Associates, “Ten Things Democrats Need to Know about the Economy to Win in 2014.”

Which candidate would you be more likely to support? (Swing Voters)

50 50

Republican candidate Democratic candidate

39 62

Favors cutting gov’t spending to bring down deficit and reduce debt

Favors investment in schools, research, and transportation that create jobs

Favors cutting gov’t spending to bring down deficit and reduce debt

Favors investment in schools, research, and transportation that create jobs, funded by closing tax loopholes for big corporations and the rich

20

Voters are especially supportive of closing tax loopholes for companies that ship jobs overseas.

MessageVery

ConvincingVery/Fairly Convincing

We should end tax breaks for companies that ship jobs and profits offshore, and level the playing field for small businesses that create jobs in America.

55 67We should close tax loopholes for large corporations that ship jobs offshore, and instead use that money to invest in jobs in America by improving our roads and bridges and rebuilding manufacturing.

54 68

Instead of cutting education funding for our children, we should ask millionaires to pay at least as high a tax rate as their secretaries.

50 64It's better to end huge tax subsidies to oil and gas companies making record profits than to make seniors pay more for Medicare. 48 58

I'm going to read some statements made by people who support the Democrats' budget priorities. For each statement, please tell me whether you think it is a very convincing, fairly convincing, just somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to support the Democrats' budget priorities.

Americans for Tax Fairness survey among 1,009 voters. Conducted October 25-30, 2013 by Hart Research Associates.

21

REGULATING BIG BUSINESS

Nearly all voters believe it is important to regulate financial services and products. This is a core value.

93

6 1

73

Important Not important Don't know

+87

How important is it to regulate financial services and products to make sure they are fair for consumers? Is it very important, somewhat important, a little important, or not at all important?

Lake Research Partners survey of 1,004 likely 2014 voters conducted on behalf of the Ford Foundation, the Center for Responsible Lending, and Americans for Financial Reform. The national survey was conducted from July 8 – 11, 2013 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

23

More than 8 in 10 voters support tougher rules and enforcement for Wall Street financial companies, while just 9% believe they don’t need further regulation.

83

92 6

Tougher Rules &Enforcement

Don't Need FurtherRegulation

Neither Don't Know

Tougher Rules for Financial Companies

Should Wall Street financial companies be held accountable with tougher rules and enforcement for the practices that caused the financial crisis, or have their practices changed enough that they don’t need further

regulation?

Lake Research Partners survey of 1,004 likely 2014 voters conducted on behalf of the Ford Foundation, the Center for Responsible Lending, and Americans for Financial Reform. The national survey was conducted from July 8 – 11, 2013 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

24

While trade is seen more as an opportunity for growth than a threat to the economy, voters worry that unregulated globalization puts the American economy at a disadvantage.

54

38

4 3

Opportunityfor growth

Threat toeconomy

Both Unsure

What do you think foreign trade means for America? Do you see foreign trade more as an opportunity for economic growth through increased U.S. exports or

a threat to the economy from foreign imports?

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll of 500 registered voters nationwide conducted by Hart Research Associates (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R). April 23-27, 2014.

43 48

5 4

Good Bad Equal Unsure

Do you think the fact that the American economy has become increasingly global is good because it

has opened up new markets for American products and resulted in more jobs, or bad because it has

subjected American companies and employees to unfair competition and cheap labor?

Gallup Poll. Feb. 6-9, 2014. N=1,023 adults nationwide 25

TAKING BACK OUR DEMOCRACY

Voters are fed up with members of Congress and the “Big Money Campaign Donors” that help them win elections to rig the system in their favor.

Net

23

12

67

72

436

51

Members of Congress

Big Money Campaign Donors

Unfavorable Favorable

-43

-60

Now I’d like to ask you about some groups. For each, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression.

Public Campaign Action Fund survey of 804 likely 2014 voters nationwide. Conducted December 14-17, 2013 by Lake Research Partners. The margin of error is +/- 3.3%

27

There is a growing sense of urgency behind changing the way campaigns are funded.

72%

June 2010 December 2013

83%

Major Changes NeededDemocrats: 55% (‘10) 64% (‘13)

Independents: 56% (‘10) 66% (’13)Republicans: 45% (‘10) 54% (‘13)

Changes to the Way We Finance CampaignsWhen it comes to the way we finance election campaigns, do you think we need to make major changes, minor changes, or should we not make any changes to the way election campaigns are financed, or aren’t you sure?

Public Campaign Action Fund survey of 804 likely 2014 voters nationwide. Conducted December 14-17, 2013 by Lake Research Partners. The margin of error is +/- 3.3%

28

Celinda Lakeclake@lakeresearch.com

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066