the oecd-fao agricultural outlook 2011-2020 by stefania vannuccini fishery statistician...
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The OECD-FAO The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Agricultural Outlook
2011-20202011-2020
by Stefania VannucciniFishery Statistician (Commodities)
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics and Information Service
3rd AD-HOC FISH PRICE INDEX WORKSHOP3rd AD-HOC FISH PRICE INDEX WORKSHOP
Outlook modelsOutlook models
• Key role of outlook models • Importance to have a good
understanding on perspectives of developments in the food and agriculture sector
• Need to develop a model to analyze the outlook of the fisheries and aquaculture sector
Importance of fisheriesImportance of fisheriessectorsector
• In terms of food security• The significant growth of
aquaculture production• The expansion of the coverage of
food products and of the oil and feed markets
• The links and interactions with the agriculture sector
Interaction Interaction fisheries-agriculturefisheries-agriculture
• Integrating farming• Ecosystems, markets, products,
prices, innovation, technology• Competition on water and land
resources• Feed• Fish meal, fish oil• Raw material from agriculture and
livestock
Aglink-CO.SI.MO.Aglink-CO.SI.MO.
• OECD FAO Aglink-CO.SI.MO. modelling system
• Partial equilibrium model for international agriculture and food markets
• Medium term projections• Perform alternative scenarios• OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
publication
AGLINK ModelAGLINK Model• OECD• Dynamic, partial equilibrium supply-
demand model • Yearly basis since early 1990s• Medium-term projections• Agricultural key commodities• Assumptions• Coverage• Close collaboration with member
countries• Influence of agricultural policy
CO.SI.MO. ModelCO.SI.MO. Model
• FAO World Food Model• FAO COmmodity SImulation
MOdel• Yearly basis since 2004• Updating Cycle• Coverage• Commodities• Macro economic assumptions• Parameters
OECD-FAO OECD-FAO Agricultural OutlookAgricultural Outlook
• Country views are the starting point
• AGLINK CO.SI.MO is used to get a consistent and coherent picture
• Model outcomes adjusted through expert opinions
• Final reviews in OECD commodity working groups
• The datasets are available at: www.agri-outlook.org
Fish modelFish model
• Construction of a satellite model on fish and fishery products
• After a few years of use as a stand alone component, possible merging to the AGLINK-COSIMO model
• Benefit also for the model as will expand the coverage of food consumption and in particular of protein as well as of the oil and feed markets
Fish modelFish model• Two supply functions (capture and
aquaculture)• Capture: either exogenous, endogenous
but only affected by el Niño and endogenous but responding to price (13%)
• Aquaculture, 99% endogenous and responding to price of output and feed
• Fish meal and oil are composed by two components: from whole fish and from fish residue
Fish modelFish model
• Demand is split to three end uses, food, fishmeal/fish oil and other uses (kept exogenous)
• Demand for fish meal and oil responds to the need of aquaculture, the own price and the price of the respecive oilseed products
• Imports and exports of fish are either exogenous or a function of domestic and world prices adjusted for tariffs and transport costs
Fish model: assumptions
• El nino will affect South American capture in 2010, 2015 and 2020.
• Fishing quota under-fill will be minimal.
• Aquaculture productivity gains will be smaller than in the previous decade.
• New feeding technics will not prevent increase in the ratio of fish to oilseed meal price.
• Japan fish and seafood production affected by tsunami in 2011 and gradually returning after.
OECD-FAOAgricultural outlook 2011-
2020
Agricultural outlook 2011-2020
• Agricultural commodity prices in real terms higher compared to 2001-2010.
• Production costs are rising and productivity growth is slowing (1.7% compared to 2.6%)
• Energy related costs and feed cost will continue to increase
• Resource pressures on water and land are increasing
• Need of further investments into productivity enhancements
• Per capita food consumption will expand most rapidly in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America, with highest increases for vegetable oils, sugar, meat and dairy products
• Trade is expected to grow by 2% per year, slower than the previous decade
Outlook: GDP GROWTH
Growth of per capita consumption 2011-20 vs
2008-2010
TOTAL FISHERY PRODUCTION
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020
Capture
Aquaculture
million tonnes
Projections for capture fisheries
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020
The share of fish reduced in fish meal will stabilize around 22%
Capture
El nino
million tonnes
Capture fisheriesCapture fisheries
* Indicates excluding USA, China and EU27 respectively
Projections for aquaculture production
1 000 tonnes
Growth rate of fish production by decades
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Aquaculture Capture
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2010
2011-2020
Least-squares growth rate (%)
Source: FAO
Aquaculture production
Total= 54.6 mt Total=72.4 mt
* Indicates excluding USA, China and EU27 respectively
Fish meal production
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
From whole fish
From fish residue
million tonnes
Chile and Peru, fish meal
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Peru
Chile
Others
million tonnes
World utilization and consumption projections
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
Fish for humanconsumption
Non-food uses offish
Per capita fishsupply
kg/capitaUtilization in million tonnes
Source: FAO
Increasing role of aquaculture in human
consumption
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020
Fish for human consumption (%)
From capture
From aquaculture
Source: FAO
Surpass in 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Total capture
Capture for food
Aquaculture
million tonnes
World per capita fish consumption
10
12
14
16
18
20
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
kg per capita
General growth of fish consumption
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
Europe Africa Asia Oceania World
kg/capita
2008-2010
2018-2020
Source: FAO
Trend in world trade of fish and fishery products
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Imports excluding intra EU
Trend
million tonnes live weight
2020: trade of fish food by countries in quantity
China20%
EU279%
Thailand9%
Viet Nam8%Norway
7%
USA6%
Rest of world41%
EU2723%
USA15%
China9%Japan
9%Thailand
6%
Russian Fed5%
Rest of world33%
Exports Imports
Source: FAO
Share of 7 major exporters to increase
Total= 43.4 mtTotal= 34.8 mt
Share of major importing countries to remain rather
stable (about 68%)
Total= 34.1 mt
Total= 43.46 mt
Fish price projected to increase as prices of other
commodities
Traded products
Growing prices
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2009-2011=100
Aquaculture
Fish, trade
Capture
Source: FAO
Outlook: fish vs meat prices
Source: FAO-OECD
Growing prices
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2009-2011=100
Fish oil
Fish meal
Source: FAO
ConclusionConclusion• Projections indicate a continuous rise in
demand for fish and fishery products, with growing trade and consumption
• Need to long-term resource conservation and effective management of resources as well as of aquaculture
• Differentiation of consumption, opening of new markets
• Risk of increase of costs of production due to stable production of fishmeal/fish oil
• Too high prices in the market will risk the effect of substitution with other emerging commodities
Outlook for fish: Outlook for fish: supplysupply
• Major increases will depend on aquaculture. • Factors to influence future growth of
aquaculture: – costs/availability of feed for selected species;
access and availability of areas/water– environmental impacts– availability of technology and finance– effects on biodiversity– climate changes– governance– food safety and traceability issues
• Capture: importance of implement more cautious and effective fisheries management
Outlook for fish: Outlook for fish: demanddemand• Population/rural/urban
• Income• Retail concentration in developed and
developing which will affect demand• Product development, technological
innovation• Continuous increase of trade• Increased imports from developing
countries• Outsourcing of processing will continue• Slow growth in per capita consumption
Improvements of the model
• obtaining better transport cost data• obtaining more representative tariffs
for the aggregated components • obtaining or estimating FH food
demand elasticities• obtaining or estimating FHA supply
elasticities • identifying a better way to estimate
value of capture fisheries
Next steps• Present the fish model to the OECD
Committee of Fisheries• Ameliorate the fish model. Possible
inclusion of the Fish Price Index in the Fish model
• Establish a better collaboration with OECD Fisheries
• Prepare a new run of the fish model and insert a new fish chapter in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021
• Final goal: inclusion of the Fish Model in the Aglink-CO.SI.MO. overall model
Links FH model and AGLINK-CO.SI.MO
• Three major links exist:– introduction of the FH consumer
price in the food demand functions of AGLINK/COSIMO
– the feed demand system– the interaction between the FM and
FL markets with their oilseed counterparts
Other integrationsOther integrations
• The Fishery and Aquaculture Department of FAO is also investigating for the possible integration of a fisheries and aquaculture component in some of the already existing models as well as to look for other potential models of FAO and other institutions/organizations
Fish toFish to
• Fish to 2030 report, updating of Fish to 2020 (Delgado, et al. 2003)
• IMPACT model of the IFPRI• Database prepared• Modeling in development phase
FAO Global Perspective FAO Global Perspective Studies for food and Studies for food and
agricultureagriculture
• Review• Long-term projections (30-40
years)of consumption and production of agricultural products and food, and of trends in world food security
• Recommandations by consultant to include fishery component in the studies
UK FORESIGHTUK FORESIGHT
• Project run by the UK Government for Science
• The project looks out to 2050 and take a global view of the food system, considering issues of demand, production and supply as well as broader environmental issues
