THE NEXT FORTY YEARS: the challenge of climate change

Robert ZougmoréRegional Program Leader

CCAFS West Africa

Outline

• Challenges due to climate change

• The CGIAR research program: CCAFS

• Climate Smart Agriculture: the solution

Challenge 1:

Food security

Greater demand for food due

to population & income growth

In order to meet global demands,

we will need

60-70% food

by 2050.

The yield gap and its’ limitations

Potential yield

(Experimentation)

Actual yield

Yield gap

Biophysical limitations- Soil fertility- Water- Germplasm-etc

Which inputs are lacking?

Socio economic and policy limitations- Knowledge

- Credit Availability- Input/output Market access- Policy, e.t.c

Why inputs are not used?

“Unchecked climate change will result in a

20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario.

-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS

Challenge 2: Adaptation to CC

Signs of Hope:Signs of Hope:Signs of Hope:Signs of Hope:

Rehabilitation, Prevention Rehabilitation, Prevention Rehabilitation, Prevention Rehabilitation, Prevention

For 650,000 years, CO2 has never

been above this line, …..until now

now

400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0

Years before today

CO

2 p

art

s p

er

mill

ion

440

400

360

320

280

240

200

160

NASA

The concentration of

GHGs is rising

Long-term implications

for the climate and for

crop suitability

IPCC PROJECTIONS FOR AFRICA

• CO2 enrichment

• Temperature increase of 1.5 to 4 ⁰C in this century

• Fewer colder days and nights

• Frequent hot days and nights

• Arid areas will become drier and humid areas wetter

• Increase in droughts and floods

• Sea level rise

• High levels of desertification and soil salinization in

some countries

Crop suitability will fall in many areas

Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS

50 crops, to 2050-95 to -31

-30 to -11

-10 to -1

0

1 to 29

30 to 47

48 to 98

% change

To 2090, taking 18

climate models

Four degree world

Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS

>20% loss

5-20% loss

No change

5-20% gain

>20% gain

Length of growing

period (%)

Length of growing season is

likely to decline..

• Greater frequency of extreme events• More severe extreme events

% p

rice incre

ase 2

010-2

050

Climate change will add greatly to price increases…

Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS

Maize Rice Wheat

Challenge 3: Reducing the agricultural footprint

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

IMPACTS

CROPS

SEA LEVEL RISE

PEST & DISEASES

LIVESTOCK

BIODIVERSITYNATURAL

RESOURCES

FISHERIES

CCAFS: working in partnershipRegional organizations

(e.g. CORAF, FARA, ASARECA)

Continental initiatives (e.g.

CAADP)

Meteorological, development,

capacity organizations

(e.g. AGRHYMET, WMO,START)

National research & extension

State sectoral institutions

NGOs, Private sector, FOs

Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices

The CGIAR Research Centers

Lead center - CIAT

1.Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food

systems.

2.Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of

climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.

CCAFS objectives

Place-based field work

Indo-GangeticPlains:

There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise; the intensity and probability of extreme events will likely increase.

Regional Leader:

Pramod Aggarwal

East Africa:Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress.

Regional Program Leader

:

James Kinyangi

West Africa:Extreme rainfall variability impedes precipitation predictions, but the Sahel will likely experience shorter growing periods.

Regional Program Leader:

Robert Zougmoré

A “new” climate

smart agriculture

is needed

To make climate-smart agriculture a reality:

1.Tools to make

investment choices

2.Incentives to improve

uptake

3.Research to reduce

GHG emissions and

increase productivity

under climate change

TPE

analysisFuture

systems

Knowledg

e &

intuition

Ideotype

concept

Gene/allel

ediscovery

Intelligent phenotyping designs

Marker

developmt

.

Modeling

Marker validation,Integration

,G x E x M

Molecular

breeding

Intelligent choice of

populations

Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment

CHANGE

Con-ventionalbreedingApplication

Methodology

Search

Function, regulation,phénotype

Strategic choices

DiversityPanels

BiparentalPopsCCAFS (CRP7)

activity 1.2:Breeding strategies

& ideotypes for 2030 horizon

Farmers efforts need to be supported by

policies, incentives and knowledge

VISION• Agriculture becomes the

centre-piece of UNFCCC COP

• Empower farmers and institutions through regional knowledge networks (“From satellite to cell phone”)

1. Climate change has arrived

2. We need planned, accelerated and transformative adaptation

3. There are some emerging opportunities

5. A major push is needed on climate risk management

4. A “new” climate-smart agriculture is needed

6.Farmers efforts need to be supported by policies, incentives and knowledge

Thank you