The New Product Development Process

Marketing 4250January 25, 2007

Stage I: Opportunity Identification and Selection

Opportunity Identification Motivators of the NPD Process

Formal Corporate Structures Underutilized Resources New Resources Internal Mandates External Mandates

Challenging Inertia Do an assumption analysis

List key uncertainties Opportunities appear

Embrace the uncertainties with Scenario Planning 1980’s example

Example: Global Uncertainties (mid-80’s)

Key Uncertainties Trade conflict between USA and Japan Arms negotiations between USA and USSR Spread of AIDS Impact of Europe 1992 Deterioration of ozone layer and hole Continuation of Apartheid

Combining 2 Key Uncertainties

USA / Japan

USA/USSR

ArmsRace

Detente

Accommodation Trade Conflict

ImperialTwilight

IndustrialRenaissance

ProtractedTransition

X

A Scenario Planning Exercise

Objective To sketch out strategically different

futures that your organization may have to operate in

Inside these different futures, focus on the concrete detail in order to identify new product opportunities

A Scenario Planning Exercise Instructions

Get in your assigned groups Focus on the industry that you’ve been

assigned and act as an organization within that industry

Go through the scenario planning stages (listed on the next page), develop one of the scenarios and attempt to identify new product opportunities

A Scenario Planning Exercise Scenario Planning Stages

I) List the main stakeholders & their interests/positions II) List the main long-term trends and assess the impact

of each trend on this organization (+, 0, -, ?) III) List the past events that have surprised people in this

industry. IV) Identify other key uncertainties V) Pick the 2 most important and dichotomize them (vote) VI) Fill in the matrix, pick one cell to examine in depth

Opportunity Identification Scenario Development

Have the group members take on the roles of the different possible players in the scenario & discuss details of the situation (how specifically would your party be impacted)

What new opportunities or needs emerge in this new “world”?