In a world of globalization and rapid In a world of globalization and rapid social change does religion provide social change does religion provide

the common values and ethical the common values and ethical foundations that diverse societies foundations that diverse societies need to thrive in the 21st century? need to thrive in the 21st century?  Or, do deeply held religious beliefs  Or, do deeply held religious beliefs

promote intolerance, exacerbate promote intolerance, exacerbate ethnic divisions, and impede social ethnic divisions, and impede social

progress in developing and developed progress in developing and developed nations alike? To encourage a far-nations alike? To encourage a far-

ranging discussion on one of human ranging discussion on one of human kind’s most vexing questions, the 6th kind’s most vexing questions, the 6th

semi-annual Munk Debate will semi-annual Munk Debate will tackle the resolution: tackle the resolution: be it resolved, be it resolved,

religion is a force for good in religion is a force for good in the worldthe world..

The MUNK Debates, The MUNK Debates, FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 26, FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2010 2010

Toronto, Canada Toronto, Canada http://www.munkdebates.com/debates/Religion http://www.munkdebates.com/debates/Religion

Last Friday, Canada formally Last Friday, Canada formally signed signed

the United Nations Declaration the United Nations Declaration on on

the Rights of Indigenous Peoplesthe Rights of Indigenous Peoples--non-binding declarationnon-binding declaration commits member states commits member states

to protect the rights and resources to protect the rights and resources

of Indigenous peoples within the stateof Indigenous peoples within the state

-The declaration, hammered out over -The declaration, hammered out over 20 years of talks 20 years of talks between diplomats and representatives of aboriginal between diplomats and representatives of aboriginal groups from around the worldgroups from around the world, says Indigenous , says Indigenous peoples have a number of rights – to their lands, peoples have a number of rights – to their lands, culture, and languages, among other things – culture, and languages, among other things – and that governments should work to protect and that governments should work to protect these rights. these rights.

Why were you attracted to a Why were you attracted to a course on politics when you course on politics when you

chose your courses? chose your courses?

How has this course shaped How has this course shaped how and what you think how and what you think

about politics?about politics?

Final Portfolio EntryFinal Portfolio Entry

……ReflectionsReflections……

SecuritySecurity Understand the Understand the nature of security and nature of security and

insecurityinsecurity in international relations in international relations Understand Understand enduring and emerging enduring and emerging

security dilemmas security dilemmas such as international such as international terrorism and humanitarian interventionterrorism and humanitarian intervention

Discuss methods to Discuss methods to deal with conflictdeal with conflict:: mediation, diplomacy, and conflict resolutionmediation, diplomacy, and conflict resolution

Explain the particular challenge Canada Explain the particular challenge Canada faces in its involvement in the war in faces in its involvement in the war in AfghanistanAfghanistan..

Consider Consider new geopolitical tensionsnew geopolitical tensions..

IntroductionIntroduction

Is the world naturally at peace, or at Is the world naturally at peace, or at war?war?

We can’t ascertain whether humans are We can’t ascertain whether humans are naturally peaceful or warlike, but we can naturally peaceful or warlike, but we can conclude that conclude that conflictconflict comes with politics comes with politics

In fact, In fact, securitysecurity is a fundamental is a fundamental concern for statesconcern for states

Security and InsecuritySecurity and Insecurity

SecuritySecurity: freedom from danger or injury: freedom from danger or injury Never fully assured for any stateNever fully assured for any state

InsecurityInsecurity: threat of danger or injury: threat of danger or injury Commonplace in international politicsCommonplace in international politics

Security issues Security issues different todaydifferent today Once based primarily on Once based primarily on geopoliticsgeopolitics: :

relationship of political relationships to the relationship of political relationships to the geographical location of a stategeographical location of a state

Security TodaySecurity Today Geopolitics still important, but other newer issues Geopolitics still important, but other newer issues

like like human security, and environmental human security, and environmental security (ES), and food securitysecurity (ES), and food security also get attention also get attention Attention on the security of the person, rather than the Attention on the security of the person, rather than the

state (See Box 12.1)state (See Box 12.1) ""Sustainable development is a compelling moral and humanitarian issue, but it is Sustainable development is a compelling moral and humanitarian issue, but it is

also a security imperative. also a security imperative. Poverty, environmental degradation and despair Poverty, environmental degradation and despair are destroyers of people, of societies, of nations. This unholy trinity can are destroyers of people, of societies, of nations. This unholy trinity can destabilise countries, even entire regionsdestabilise countries, even entire regions..“ “ Colin Powell, 1999Colin Powell, 1999

Threats can come from variety of sources, and Threats can come from variety of sources, and security needs to account for thesesecurity needs to account for these Military threats, but also political, economic, Military threats, but also political, economic,

cultural, social, human, environmentalcultural, social, human, environmental

ES began as an interdisciplinary ES began as an interdisciplinary study in the 1970s when researchers study in the 1970s when researchers examined what happened in the examined what happened in the Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa. Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa.

Early ES research efforts tried to Early ES research efforts tried to understand the interactions among g understand the interactions among g the climate, geography, people, and the climate, geography, people, and the implications of these changes on the implications of these changes on human security in the human security in the regionregion; ; noticing the fall of multiple noticing the fall of multiple governments during the droughts in governments during the droughts in this region during the 1970s-’80s.this region during the 1970s-’80s.Source: Source: James Ramsay & John M. Lanicci, James Ramsay & John M. Lanicci, 4th Annual 4th Annual

Homeland Defense & Security Education Summit, February Homeland Defense & Security Education Summit, February 2010, Washington, DC2010, Washington, DC

NATONATO Based on a broad definition of security that Based on a broad definition of security that

recognizes the importance of political, economic, recognizes the importance of political, economic, social and environmental factors, NATO is social and environmental factors, NATO is addressing security challenges emanating from addressing security challenges emanating from the environmentthe environment. . includes extreme weather conditions, depletion of includes extreme weather conditions, depletion of

natural resources, pollution and so on – factors that natural resources, pollution and so on – factors that can ultimately lead to disasters, regional tensions and can ultimately lead to disasters, regional tensions and violence. violence.

in April 2010, a NATO Science workshop in Moscow in April 2010, a NATO Science workshop in Moscow addressed environmental security and “eco-terrorism”addressed environmental security and “eco-terrorism”

a workshop in Cairo looked at food security and safety a workshop in Cairo looked at food security and safety against terrorist threats and natural disasters.against terrorist threats and natural disasters.

NATO: NATO: “climate change is “climate change is emerging as a threat to peace emerging as a threat to peace

and security”and security”

Achim Steiner, the UN Under-Achim Steiner, the UN Under-Secretary General and United Nations Secretary General and United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) Environmental Programme (UNEP) Executive Director, on the impact of Executive Director, on the impact of climate change on global security. climate change on global security.

““Countries must realise how climate Countries must realise how climate change will effect their human and change will effect their human and national security, and identify ways to national security, and identify ways to increase their coping capacity.”increase their coping capacity.”

NATO cont’dNATO cont’d 5 main and interlinked dimensions:5 main and interlinked dimensions:

1.1. resource scarcity (food, water, energy security)resource scarcity (food, water, energy security)

2.2. coastal vulnerability (1/3 pop lives in coastal coastal vulnerability (1/3 pop lives in coastal zones)zones)

3.3. Intensification of Intensification of extreme weather eventsextreme weather events Over the past 20 years, natural hazards have taken lives Over the past 20 years, natural hazards have taken lives

of more than 2 million people, have affected more than of more than 2 million people, have affected more than 200 million people annually, and have produced economic 200 million people annually, and have produced economic losses of over 1.2 trillion US dollars. losses of over 1.2 trillion US dollars.

economic impact of Katrina (24 hours): $125 billioneconomic impact of Katrina (24 hours): $125 billion

4.4. MigrationMigration By 2050,By 2050, between 50 million and 350 million between 50 million and 350 million

5.5. Transboundary & shared water resource Transboundary & shared water resource competitioncompetition (ie. Arctic) (ie. Arctic)

«Climate change «Climate change is a threat that is a threat that

can bring us can bring us together if we together if we

are wise enough are wise enough to stop it from to stop it from

driving us apart»driving us apart»Achim Steiner, the UN Under-Secretary Achim Steiner, the UN Under-Secretary General & UNEP Executive Director General & UNEP Executive Director

quoting Margaret Beckettquoting Margaret Beckett

““The economy is a wholly-owned subsidiary of The economy is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the environment. All economic activity is the environment. All economic activity is dependent on the environment and its dependent on the environment and its underlying resource base.underlying resource base.

When the environment is finally forced to file When the environment is finally forced to file for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 because its for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 because its resource base has been polluted, degraded, resource base has been polluted, degraded, dissipated irretrievably compromised, then the dissipated irretrievably compromised, then the economy will bankrupt with it.”economy will bankrupt with it.”

Tim Wirth, Former U.S. Under Secretary of State for Global AffairsTim Wirth, Former U.S. Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs

Tying ES to national and homeland security Tying ES to national and homeland security strategy: Risk mitigation from natural strategy: Risk mitigation from natural environment hazards involves similar actions to environment hazards involves similar actions to risk mitigation from terrorist attacks.risk mitigation from terrorist attacks.

The next round of climate negotiations in Mexico The next round of climate negotiations in Mexico this December could pursue several actions to this December could pursue several actions to implement such a strategy. It could continue implement such a strategy. It could continue current efforts to promote the broad-based current efforts to promote the broad-based

scientific assessments that establish the scientific assessments that establish the seriousness and damages from climate change; seriousness and damages from climate change; establish international reporting standards for establish international reporting standards for monitoring and reporting of greenhouse gas monitoring and reporting of greenhouse gas

emissions; set greenhouse gas emissions emissions; set greenhouse gas emissions standards for industries and products, based on standards for industries and products, based on demonstrated best practice. Developed countries demonstrated best practice. Developed countries should also continue to assist the poorest nations should also continue to assist the poorest nations in adapting to the impacts of climate change. …in adapting to the impacts of climate change. …

Not surprisingly, this approach has failed to Not surprisingly, this approach has failed to catalyze change on anywhere near the needed catalyze change on anywhere near the needed

scale. scale. Perhaps it is time for a new strategy, one Perhaps it is time for a new strategy, one that sets no specific international plan for the that sets no specific international plan for the energy revolution, but instead relies on some energy revolution, but instead relies on some

nations to race ahead and, once a majority have nations to race ahead and, once a majority have discovered a promising path, gives them the discovered a promising path, gives them the tools to strongly encourage the rest to follow. tools to strongly encourage the rest to follow.

http://www.rand.org/commentary/2010/07/01/HP.htmlhttp://www.rand.org/commentary/2010/07/01/HP.html

UN mandated graduate school of peace UN mandated graduate school of peace studiesstudies

Environmental factors have been Environmental factors have been increasingly implicated in analyses of increasingly implicated in analyses of development, peace and conflict situations. development, peace and conflict situations.

analyze the impacts of environmental analyze the impacts of environmental stress and climate change on human stress and climate change on human livelihoods, health and fulfilment of basic livelihoods, health and fulfilment of basic needs, and on the sustainability and needs, and on the sustainability and resilience of fragile ecosystems.resilience of fragile ecosystems.

International Anarchy International Anarchy ‘‘Condition where Condition where there is no ‘world there is no ‘world

governmentgovernment’; the ’; the sovereign nation-state sovereign nation-state is the highest authority in the is the highest authority in the international systeminternational system’’ Different conceptions of security (see Box Different conceptions of security (see Box

12.2)12.2) Contributes to Contributes to continued state of continued state of

insecurityinsecurity, since states are left to defend , since states are left to defend themselves and provide their own securitythemselves and provide their own security

Leads to Leads to security dilemmasecurity dilemma:: ‘‘Conception in world politics that states Conception in world politics that states

are both protected by the existence of are both protected by the existence of states, and threatened by them’states, and threatened by them’

War in International War in International RelationsRelations

Not all Not all conflictconflict is war is war ‘‘State of State of actualactual or perceived incompatible or perceived incompatible

interestsinterests’’ But all But all warwar is based on is based on conflictconflict

‘‘Use of armed forces in conflict with enemy’Use of armed forces in conflict with enemy’

International security is International security is concerned with all types of concerned with all types of conflictconflict But war is the most extreme and violentBut war is the most extreme and violent

WarWar

Every country must deal with war, Every country must deal with war, even if it is to defend against iteven if it is to defend against it

‘‘War is the continuation of politics War is the continuation of politics by other means’by other means’ Carl von Clausewitz (1780–1831)Carl von Clausewitz (1780–1831)

War and PowerWar and Power

States use power differently:States use power differently:1.1. To coerce othersTo coerce others

2.2. As threat against non-complianceAs threat against non-compliance

3.3. Use of economic strength with Use of economic strength with embargoes and sanctionsembargoes and sanctions

4.4. Outright use of military force Outright use of military force against othersagainst others

Just WarsJust Wars((See Box 12.3)See Box 12.3)

Laws of Armed Conflict govern Laws of Armed Conflict govern declaration, waging, and aftermath declaration, waging, and aftermath of warof war

When is war just, however?When is war just, however?1.1. Right conditionsRight conditions2.2. Not war of aggressionNot war of aggression3.3. Comparative justice: address suffering Comparative justice: address suffering

felt by one sidefelt by one side4.4. Legitimate authorities Legitimate authorities 5.5. Not futileNot futile6.6. Fought with proportionate meansFought with proportionate means

Are We More ‘War-Like’?Are We More ‘War-Like’?

War has always been used as tacticWar has always been used as tactic Difficult to assess whether we’re Difficult to assess whether we’re

more likely to use it todaymore likely to use it today However, However, studies show frequency studies show frequency

of war is as high as ever, and of war is as high as ever, and instance of war has increasedinstance of war has increased

More importantly, More importantly, war is likelier in war is likelier in the developing world the developing world

TerrorismTerrorism

‘‘Strategy of violence designed to Strategy of violence designed to bring about political change by bring about political change by instilling fear in the public at large’instilling fear in the public at large’

9/11 attacks change global security 9/11 attacks change global security issuesissues

Legacy of 9/11 (Afghan and Iraq Legacy of 9/11 (Afghan and Iraq wars, global terror networks) still wars, global terror networks) still with us with us

Humanitarian Humanitarian InterventionismInterventionism

Countries ‘intervene’ in affairs of others Countries ‘intervene’ in affairs of others all the timeall the time

Humanitarian intervention Humanitarian intervention is differentis different ‘‘Interference in the affairs of a sovereign Interference in the affairs of a sovereign

state with the intention of reducing the state with the intention of reducing the suffering felt by people in that country’suffering felt by people in that country’

May be justified as means to help others, May be justified as means to help others, but always will be contentious and but always will be contentious and contestedcontested Exactly when do we ‘know’ it’s time to Exactly when do we ‘know’ it’s time to

intervene?intervene?

Humanitarian Humanitarian InterventionIntervention

John Stuart Mill: right and responsibility of John Stuart Mill: right and responsibility of civilized states to intervene in the interests civilized states to intervene in the interests of international moralityof international morality

Genocide during the Holocaust of World War Genocide during the Holocaust of World War II led to renewed attention to intervention II led to renewed attention to intervention Yet we still fail to act (see Box 12.6 on Rwanda)Yet we still fail to act (see Box 12.6 on Rwanda)

Responsibility to ProtectResponsibility to Protect (R2P) a recent (R2P) a recent (2001) attempt to clarify need to act against (2001) attempt to clarify need to act against atrocitiesatrocities

Resolving ConflictResolving Conflict

Many forms of resolving conflict todayMany forms of resolving conflict today NegotiationNegotiation: : bargainingbargaining process process

among parties to seek commonly among parties to seek commonly agreed upon resolution of disputeagreed upon resolution of dispute

MediationMediation: voluntary process using : voluntary process using impartialimpartial party to bring about party to bring about resolution of disputeresolution of dispute

ArbitrationArbitration: : authoritativeauthoritative resolution to resolution to dispute made by impartial person dispute made by impartial person agreed upon by all partiesagreed upon by all parties

““The stark and The stark and inescapable fact is that inescapable fact is that today we cannot defend today we cannot defend our society by war since our society by war since

total war is total total war is total destruction, and if war is destruction, and if war is used as an instrument of used as an instrument of policy, eventually we will policy, eventually we will

have total war.”have total war.”Lester B. PearsonLester B. Pearson

Want more info? Check out: http://www.unac.org/peacekeeping/en/un-Want more info? Check out: http://www.unac.org/peacekeeping/en/un-peacekeeping/ peacekeeping/

Peacekeeping, Conflict Peacekeeping, Conflict Management, and ResolutionManagement, and Resolution

Sometimes these means are not possibleSometimes these means are not possible PeacekeepingPeacekeeping presents another option presents another option

‘‘Military and civilian personnel in a conflict area Military and civilian personnel in a conflict area used to used to stop or contain hostilities or supervise stop or contain hostilities or supervise the carrying out of a peace agreementthe carrying out of a peace agreement’’

A ‘Canadian invention’ with Lester Pearson’s A ‘Canadian invention’ with Lester Pearson’s 1956 ‘emergency force’ proposal to the UN1956 ‘emergency force’ proposal to the UN

Peacekeeping has become a major UN activity Peacekeeping has become a major UN activity nownow

PeacekeepingPeacekeeping Increasingly Increasingly expensiveexpensive, and growing , and growing

number of missionsnumber of missions Many states, e.g., Canada, contribute few Many states, e.g., Canada, contribute few

soldiers when they are tasked with other soldiers when they are tasked with other missions (like Afghanistan, for Canada)missions (like Afghanistan, for Canada)

Is the UN the right organization? Is the UN the right organization? Should it be regional? Can different armies be Should it be regional? Can different armies be

‘interoperable’ in missions?‘interoperable’ in missions? Peacekeeping undoubtedly one of the Peacekeeping undoubtedly one of the

most effective conflict management most effective conflict management means availablemeans available

Canada in AfghanistanCanada in Afghanistan

Good example of many topics raised in Good example of many topics raised in this lecture:this lecture: 9/11 and terrorism led to Afghan War9/11 and terrorism led to Afghan War Canada’s multifaceted role in Afghanistan Canada’s multifaceted role in Afghanistan

includes peacekeeping (though it is not includes peacekeeping (though it is not strictly a peacekeeping mission)strictly a peacekeeping mission)

Mission reflects the nature of insecurity felt Mission reflects the nature of insecurity felt in modern international politicsin modern international politics

NYTIMES: A Year at WarNYTIMES: A Year at War http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/world/battalion.html?hp#/NYT/26 http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/world/battalion.html?hp#/NYT/26

UN SC Resolution 1325?UN SC Resolution 1325?A watershed political framework that makes women –and a gender perspective relevant to all aspects of peace processes- from peace agreements through peace support operations and planning for refugee, IDP’s and other war affected to post-conflict reconstruction processes and the restoration of the social fabric of a broken society.

Resolution 1325 makes the pursuit of gender equality relevant to every single action of the UN SC ranging from Mine Clearance to Elections to Demobilisation, Disarmament, Reintegration & Security Sector Reform.

On October 31, 2000, the United Nations Security Council On October 31, 2000, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1325 on women, peace and unanimously adopted Resolution 1325 on women, peace and

security: security: It is binding upon all UN Member States and the It is binding upon all UN Member States and the adoption of the Resolution marked an important international adoption of the Resolution marked an important international political recognition that women and gender are relevant to political recognition that women and gender are relevant to

international peace and security.international peace and security.

Historic and

Unprecedented

1325 did not come out of nowhere

It was preceded by numerous international documents, treaties and statements

Tenth anniversary of SCR 1325 in October 2010, there remain major gaps in implementation and accountability for that implementation.

People don’t know it exists …First time the Security Council addressed the disproportionate and unique impact of armed conflict on women; recognized the under-valued and under-utilized contributions women make to conflict prevention, peacekeeping, conflict resolution and peace-building. It also stressed the importance of women’s equal and full participation as active agents in peace and security. Key Provisions of SCR 1325:• Increased participation and representation of women at all levels of decision-making.• Attention to specific protection needs of women and girls in conflict.• Gender perspective in post-conflict processes.• Gender perspective in UN programming, reporting and in SC missions.• Gender perspective & training in UN peace support operations.Didn’t meet 30% quota target for women in UN system set out for 2005

Rape and other forms of sexual violence and gender-based violence systematic, and widespread in today’s armed conflicts:

DRC: Rape as a systematic tool of warfare

Iraq: Rise in reported cases of kidnapping, rape, trafficking

“There is a persistent shortfall in the financing of solutions for women’s needs in post-conflict recovery plans, along with very high levels of sexual violence in some conflicts. Women are still marginalized in peace processes, with research indicating that in 24 peace processes over the past two decades, women formed less than 8 percent of negotiating teams. The consequence is that women’s concerns aren’t reflected in peace agreements, which in turn compromises inclusive and equitable recovery and sustained peace.”Source: http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/documents/1325anniv_media_advisory.pdf

More info: www.peacewomen.org/themes_theme.php?id=15&subtheme=true While Gender training is compulsory for peacekeepers, its integration relies on the political will of each mission head.

Needs and voices of the dependants of ex-combatants frequently ignored and marginalized, respectively

Refugee women and girls continue to experience sexual and gender based violence in refugee camps and settlements, forced to trade sex for humanitarian supplies

Continued poor record of SC consultation with women’s organizations while on mission

November 18, 2010November 18, 2010War and 1325: War and 1325:

Principles or Diversity Principles or Diversity

Checkbox ?Checkbox ? A week after Hillary Clinton A week after Hillary Clinton

announced that the U.S. would be announced that the U.S. would be developing a national action plan for developing a national action plan for the implementation of UN SCR 1325 the implementation of UN SCR 1325

and and providing $44 million in funding, providing $44 million in funding,

more than a thousand women more than a thousand women attended the “Women and War" attended the “Women and War" conference in Washington DC. conference in Washington DC. Kathleen Kuehnast of the U.S. Kathleen Kuehnast of the U.S.

Institute for Peace said the goal of the Institute for Peace said the goal of the conference was to bring the dialogue conference was to bring the dialogue

on women, peace and security to on women, peace and security to Washington, and to build a Washington, and to build a

“community of practice” made up of “community of practice” made up of veteran peace activists, grassroots veteran peace activists, grassroots peacebuilders, defense contractors, peacebuilders, defense contractors,

academics, and senior officials at the academics, and senior officials at the Pentagon. Pentagon.

Go to: Go to: http://www.peacewomen.org/themes_theme.php?http://www.peacewomen.org/themes_theme.php?

id=15&subtheme=true id=15&subtheme=true

FYI:FYI: Security Council Open Debate on Women and Security Council Open Debate on Women and

Peace and Security was held on Peace and Security was held on 26 26 October 2010, Security Council ChamberOctober 2010, Security Council Chamber

Women peace advocates presented the report, Women peace advocates presented the report, Women Women Count for Peace: The 2010 Open Days on Women, Count for Peace: The 2010 Open Days on Women, Peace and Security and the 1325 petition Peace and Security and the 1325 petition to UN to UN Secretary-General Ban Kimoon in OctoberSecretary-General Ban Kimoon in October

http://www.saynotoviolence.org/make-women-count-for-peacehttp://www.saynotoviolence.org/make-women-count-for-peace Executive Summary of the Global Open Day Report is available at:Executive Summary of the Global Open Day Report is available at:

http://www.unifem.org/campaigns/1325plus10/global-open-day/ http://www.unifem.org/campaigns/1325plus10/global-open-day/

Canada in AfghanistanCanada in Afghanistan

Canada is in Afghanistan in part as Canada is in Afghanistan in part as aid to its military ally (US) and also aid to its military ally (US) and also out of alliance responsibilities (NATO)out of alliance responsibilities (NATO)

Mission is marked by military, Mission is marked by military, political/diplomatic, and development political/diplomatic, and development rolesroles Three government departments: National Three government departments: National

Defence, Foreign Affairs, and CIDADefence, Foreign Affairs, and CIDA Shows truly multifaceted nature of Shows truly multifaceted nature of

contemporary security issuescontemporary security issues

Arctic Security Challenges and Issues Arctic Security Challenges and Issues Rob HuebertRhuebert@ucalgary.caRob HuebertRhuebert@ucalgary.ca

CIC Senior Fellow: CDFAI FellowCIC Senior Fellow: CDFAI Fellow

THE CLIMATE CHANGE-SECURITY THE CLIMATE CHANGE-SECURITY NEXUS: IMPLICATIONS FOR NEXUS: IMPLICATIONS FOR CANADIAN DEFENCE POLICY AND CANADIAN DEFENCE POLICY AND OPERATIONS 2010-2030OPERATIONS 2010-2030

Ottawa, January 28, 2010Ottawa, January 28, 2010http://www.ligi.ubc.ca/sites/liu/files/Publications/Huebert.pdf http://www.ligi.ubc.ca/sites/liu/files/Publications/Huebert.pdf

Main ThemesMain Themes Canada is facing a Transforming Arctic Canada is facing a Transforming Arctic

Security EnvironmentSecurity Environment The Arctic is in a state of massive The Arctic is in a state of massive

transformation transformation Climate ChangeClimate Change Resource Development –(was up to a high $140+ Resource Development –(was up to a high $140+

barrel of oil-now $80barrel)barrel of oil-now $80barrel) Geopolitical Transformation/GlobalizationGeopolitical Transformation/Globalization

Arctic as a Arctic as a Geopolitical Transit PointGeopolitical Transit Point Arctic as a New Source of ResourcesArctic as a New Source of Resources

Has a New Arctic Arms Race Arrived?Has a New Arctic Arms Race Arrived? What does this mean for Canada?What does this mean for Canada?

Confounding Nature of Arctic SecurityConfounding Nature of Arctic Security

Non-linear Progression of FactorsNon-linear Progression of Factors We do not understand interaction of changeWe do not understand interaction of change Events can occur very Events can occur very quicklyquickly eg. economic eg. economic

crisiscrisis Tendency to believe if things are going well Tendency to believe if things are going well

now they will continue to go well...............now they will continue to go well............... Complexity of NorthComplexity of North

Will remain a very expensive and difficult region Will remain a very expensive and difficult region to operate into operate in

Increasing Interest + Undetermined Increasing Interest + Undetermined Maritime Borders + Involvement of Powerful Maritime Borders + Involvement of Powerful States = Uncertain International Security States = Uncertain International Security EnvironmentEnvironment

The Economics: The Hope of Resources Oil and Gas: Resources of the NorthSource: AMAP

New Geopolitics of the New Geopolitics of the NorthNorth

RussiaRussia Renewed AssertivenessRenewed Assertiveness PetrodollarsPetrodollars

United StatesUnited States Multi-lateral Multi-lateral

reluctance/emerging reluctance/emerging concern to actconcern to act

International Role as International Role as remaining Superpower remaining Superpower

NorwayNorway Refocus on NorthRefocus on North Growing Interest Growing Interest

(Concern?) with Russia(Concern?) with Russia

DenmarkDenmark Issues with Greenland Issues with Greenland

–social; energy–social; energy New Naval capabilitiesNew Naval capabilities

IcelandIceland Economic melt-downEconomic melt-down

Finland/SwedenFinland/Sweden NATO –Loyal ArrowNATO –Loyal Arrow

CanadaCanada Renewed AssertivenessRenewed Assertiveness Re-examining its Arctic Re-examining its Arctic

capabilitiescapabilities

Delta IVs at the Arctic Delta IVs at the Arctic 20092009

Source: Defence Intelligence AgencySource: Defence Intelligence Agency

US Arctic Exercises US Arctic Exercises Northern EdgeNorthern Edge

““The United States has broad and The United States has broad and fundamental national security interests in fundamental national security interests in the Arctic region and is prepared to the Arctic region and is prepared to operate either independently or in operate either independently or in conjunction with other states to safe-conjunction with other states to safe-guard these interests” guard these interests”

National Security Presidential Directive 66/ National Security Presidential Directive 66/ Homeland Security Presidential Directive Homeland Security Presidential Directive 25 -Arctic Region Policy (January 9 2009)25 -Arctic Region Policy (January 9 2009)

Canadian Navy in Coastal Canadian Navy in Coastal WatersWaters

Resumed in 2002 –Resumed in 2002 –Operation Narwhal Operation Narwhal

Hudson Sentinel -2005 Hudson Sentinel -2005 Hudson BayHudson Bay

Operation Nanook Operation Nanook Eastern ArcticEastern Arctic 700 troops and OGD700 troops and OGD

Operation Nunakput Operation Nunakput Western Arctic Western Arctic

••Operation Nunalivut –Operation Nunalivut –Ranger ParolRanger Parol

Where are we headed?Where are we headed? Circumpolar states have called for cooperationCircumpolar states have called for cooperation Circumpolar states are building up their combat Circumpolar states are building up their combat

capable force for the Arcticcapable force for the Arctic New Equipment –Ice and Combat CapableNew Equipment –Ice and Combat Capable New Policies –Unilateral “concern” New Policies –Unilateral “concern”

Geopolitics Concerns reduced immediately after Geopolitics Concerns reduced immediately after end of Cold Warend of Cold War NewNew concerns are arising as Arctic is concerns are arising as Arctic is

perceived/becoming more accessible perceived/becoming more accessible Issues will be Maritime/AerospaceIssues will be Maritime/Aerospace New actors to the regionNew actors to the region

Security in Security in Canada’s North Canada’s North Looking Beyond Looking Beyond

Arctic SovereigntyArctic SovereigntyThis report examines three dimensions This report examines three dimensions

of security in the North—Arctic security, of security in the North—Arctic security, Northern security, and community Northern security, and community

security—in order to provide a more security—in order to provide a more comprehensive picture of the security comprehensive picture of the security

challenges in Canada’s North. challenges in Canada’s North.

Report by Bjorn Rutten Report by Bjorn Rutten The Conference Board of Canada, 44 pages, The Conference Board of Canada, 44 pages,

November 2010November 2010http://www.conferenceboard.ca/documents.aspx?did=3887 http://www.conferenceboard.ca/documents.aspx?did=3887

Be it Resolved Be it Resolved Climate ChangeClimate Change is Mankind's is Mankind's Defining Crisis, and Demands a Commensurate Defining Crisis, and Demands a Commensurate Response…. Or should the debates have been Response…. Or should the debates have been over what to do, not whether to do???over what to do, not whether to do???2009 Munk Debates2009 Munk Debates http://www.munkdebates.com/The-Debates/Climate-Change http://www.munkdebates.com/The-Debates/Climate-Change

Questions :Questions : As oil becomes more expensive and countries seek new As oil becomes more expensive and countries seek new

alternatives for fuel, what will that mean for the oil-alternatives for fuel, what will that mean for the oil-rich countries of the world today? rich countries of the world today?

Here in Canada, what might that mean for Alberta and Here in Canada, what might that mean for Alberta and Newfoundland?Newfoundland?

Working closely with relevant U.S. Working closely with relevant U.S. departments and agencies, DoD has departments and agencies, DoD has undertaken environmental security undertaken environmental security cooperative initiatives with foreign cooperative initiatives with foreign

militaries that represent a nonthreatening militaries that represent a nonthreatening way of building trust, sharing best practices way of building trust, sharing best practices

on installations management on installations management and operations, and developing response and operations, and developing response

capacity.capacity.~Quadrennial Homeland Security Review ~Quadrennial Homeland Security Review

Report, Report, Feb. 2010Feb. 2010

““It’s not hard to make the connection It’s not hard to make the connection between climate change and instability, orbetween climate change and instability, or

climate change and terrorism.” climate change and terrorism.” General (Retired) General (Retired) Anthony C. Zinni, U.S. Marine Anthony C. Zinni, U.S. Marine

CorpsCorps

4th Annual Homeland Defense & Security Education 4th Annual Homeland Defense & Security Education SummitSummit

Washington, DC, February 2010, Ramsay & LanicciWashington, DC, February 2010, Ramsay & Lanicci

Climate and Food Security Climate and Food Security 1.1. Seasonal Climate ForecastsSeasonal Climate Forecasts2.2. Natural cycles of droughtNatural cycles of drought3.3. Global WarmingGlobal Warming4.4. Impact of Agriculture on ClimateImpact of Agriculture on Climate

Polly EricksenEnvironmental Change InstituteUniversity of Oxford

Food security…Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

(World Food Summit 1996)

... is underpinned by Food Systems.

Global Environmental Change

Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities

Land cover & soils

Atmospheric composition

Climate variability & means

Water availability & quality

For example changes in:

Nitrogen availability & cycling

Biodiversity

Sea currents & salinity

Sea level

Examples of human activities leading Examples of human activities leading to GEC:to GEC:

Deforestation

Fossil fuel consumption

Urbanisation

Land reclamation

Agricultural intensification

Freshwater extraction

Fisheries overexploitation

Waste production

Global Environmental Change

Impacts of Climate Change on Impacts of Climate Change on AgricultureAgriculture

Increased growing season at high latitudesIncreased growing season at high latitudes Increased minimum temperature (crop growth Increased minimum temperature (crop growth

and pest/pathogen effects)and pest/pathogen effects) Continental drying in midlatitudes (?)Continental drying in midlatitudes (?) Changes in timing of stream flow in mid and Changes in timing of stream flow in mid and

high latitudes (water availability, etc)high latitudes (water availability, etc) Changes in heat wave frequency and intensity; Changes in heat wave frequency and intensity;

change in frost days. change in frost days. Changing patterns of drought.Changing patterns of drought. COCO22 effects on soil BGC, plant pathology; ocean effects on soil BGC, plant pathology; ocean

acidification, etc. acidification, etc.

Negative impacts where Negative impacts where food insecurity highfood insecurity high

Source: FAO State of Food Insecurity 2006

Land use for agricultureLand use for agriculture

•Harvested land in world increased by 24% Between 1961 - 2003 to 1.2 billion ha.

•Agricultural conversion to croplands and managed pastures has affected some 3.3 billion ha—roughly 26 percent of the land area. •Agriculture has displaced one-third of temperate and tropical forests and one-quarter of natural grasslands.

World Resources Institute calculations, 2000; Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007

Look at Slide 16 Look at Slide 16 & 17 & 17

http://www.chds.us/http://www.chds.us/resources/uapi/summit10/resources/uapi/summit10/Track1/Ramsay-Lanicci-Track1/Ramsay-Lanicci-Environmental-Security-Environmental-Security-Nexus-02-031510-01.pdf Nexus-02-031510-01.pdf

Today’s Toronto StarToday’s Toronto Star Global Change Biology, journalGlobal Change Biology, journal ““As a crude comparison, a typical As a crude comparison, a typical

dairy cow will produce as much in dairy cow will produce as much in (carbon dioxide) equivalents per (carbon dioxide) equivalents per month as a mid-size car does month as a mid-size car does travelling 800 kilometres per travelling 800 kilometres per month. Changes (of) two to 12 per month. Changes (of) two to 12 per cent of the energy intake can be cent of the energy intake can be the difference between that cow the difference between that cow being a compact car and an SUV being a compact car and an SUV or truck,” Jennifer Ellis added.or truck,” Jennifer Ellis added.

The Food and Agriculture The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Organization of the United Nations estimates cattle are Nations estimates cattle are responsible for 18 per cent of the responsible for 18 per cent of the world's greenhouse gas world's greenhouse gas emissions.emissions.

http://www.thestar.com/news/sciencetech/environment/http://www.thestar.com/news/sciencetech/environment/article/894342--a-new-beef-with-role-of-cows-in-global-article/894342--a-new-beef-with-role-of-cows-in-global-warming warming

Weber & Matthews, Environ. Sci. Technol., 2008

Total GHG emissions for food supply chainassociated with household food consumption in the US

Access is critical to Access is critical to food securityfood security

7

12

Multiple ExposureMultiple Exposure: Food insecurity arises : Food insecurity arises from overlapping and interacting stressorsfrom overlapping and interacting stressors

Misselhorn 2005 Global Environmental Change

Adapted from Ingram & Brklacich, 2002; Ericksen, 2008

Capacity to cope

with, and adapt to,

GEC

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)

Change in type, frequency & magnitude

of environmental threats

FOOD SYSTEMRESILIENCE /

VULNERABILITY

SOCIETAL CHANGE

Change in institutions, resource accessibility,

economic conditions, etc.

Exposureto GEC

Vulnerability of the Food System to GEC

More holistic view

The politics of what you The politics of what you eat...??eat...??

Organizers of the 2009 Behavior, Energy and Climate Organizers of the 2009 Behavior, Energy and Climate Change Conference tried an experiment: They made a Change Conference tried an experiment: They made a vegetarian lunch the default option, and gave meat eaters vegetarian lunch the default option, and gave meat eaters the choice of opting out.the choice of opting out. Some 80% went for the veggies, not because there Some 80% went for the veggies, not because there

were lots of vegetarians in the crowd of about 700 were lots of vegetarians in the crowd of about 700 people but because the choice was framed differently. people but because the choice was framed differently. We know that because, at a prior BECC conference, We know that because, at a prior BECC conference, when meat was the default option, attendees chose the when meat was the default option, attendees chose the meat by an 83% to 17% margin.meat by an 83% to 17% margin.

““Omnivores contribute seven times the greenhouse gas Omnivores contribute seven times the greenhouse gas emissions, when compared to vegans,” says Karen emissions, when compared to vegans,” says Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez, the conference chair, who works for Ehrhardt-Martinez, the conference chair, who works for the the American Council for an Energy Efficient American Council for an Energy Efficient EconomyEconomy..

Adaptation of or mitigation in Adaptation of or mitigation in food systems...food systems...

Adaptation: Adaptation: adjustments to current or expected adjustments to current or expected climate change effectsclimate change effects

Mitigation: Mitigation: actions to reduce the concentrations of actions to reduce the concentrations of GHG gasesGHG gases

Fair trade or food miles?Fair trade or food miles? Cheap meat for all or luxury meat for a few?Cheap meat for all or luxury meat for a few? Localized food systems in every country or increased Localized food systems in every country or increased

trade?trade? Sustainable agriculture or industrial production?Sustainable agriculture or industrial production? Corn for ethanol or corn for animals and sweeteners?Corn for ethanol or corn for animals and sweeteners?

Which features would be Which features would be important in your food important in your food

system?system?

Food security for all?

GM Crop technologies?

Vegetable gardens at every house?

Biofuels?

Aquaculture?

WTO renegotiated?

Supermarkets in every town?

Revitalized agricultural extension?

Payments for agrobiodiversity?

Dr. Graham Harvey: Dr. Graham Harvey: 9th 9th grader: grader: “If world goes to hell, I’ll “If world goes to hell, I’ll live on the moon!” live on the moon!”

Mobility has permitted Mobility has permitted the illusion of escape the illusion of escape when what is most needed when what is most needed is roots - a sense of is roots - a sense of place... place...