the land fetish a suitable case for dr freud?

33
THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud? Professor Sir Peter Hall UCL LSE Seminar 6 March 2006

Upload: kieu

Post on 23-Jan-2016

40 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?. Professor Sir Peter Hall UCL LSE Seminar 6 March 2006. Planning in Britain: A New Verdict (1). Andrew Gilg: Planning in Britain: Understanding and Evaluating the Post-War System (London: Sage 2005). Where Are We Now? Gilg’s Verdict. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

THE LAND FETISHA Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Professor Sir Peter Hall

UCL

LSE Seminar

6 March 2006

Page 2: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Planning in Britain:A New Verdict (1)

• Andrew Gilg: Planning in Britain: Understanding and Evaluating the Post-War System (London: Sage 2005)

Page 3: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Where Are We Now?Gilg’s Verdict

• Middle-class bias• Not always democratic• Balances economic growth, conservation: a

dilemma• Increasingly market-driven• No obvious alternative

Page 4: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Where Are We Now?Gilg’s Verdict

• Big Achievement: urban containment; preservation of countryside

• Big Failure: development not sustainable: work, homes separate

• Another Failure: transport not integrated; transport system overloaded

• Need: integrated development; New Towns• Compare: Containment of Urban England (1973)!

Page 5: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Where Are We Now?Planning in Uncertainty

• Values and interests• Essentially political• Producers versus consumers• Public action for private good• Political cultures: very deep

Page 6: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Where Are We Now?The Barker Challenge

• Need for massive increase in housing completions

• Will need brownfield + greenfield

• “Political” attack by shires – “unholy alliance” with cities

• The architects’ crusade: “Barcelonise” our cities

Page 7: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

A Continuing Issue? Brownfield, Greenfield and the Sequential Test

Housing Completions: 1999, 2004

Total Brownfield Greenfield

1999 % 100 56 44

000s 140.0 78.4 61.6

2004 % 100 68 32

000s 152.9 104.0 48.9

1999-2004 % change

+9.2 +32.7 -20.6

Page 8: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

A Continuing Issue? Brownfield, Greenfield and the Sequential Test

1999-2004

Region Completions% change

Brownfield % change

Greenfield% change

North -8.3 +37.9 -39.5

North West 0.0 +27.5 -43.1

Yorks Humber +5.9 +52.9 -41.2

East Midlands -6.8 +31.7 -28.4

West Midlands -9.3 +18.3 -42.0

Eastern England +5.4 +8.4 +1.3

London +92.8 +104.5 0.0

South East +10.0 +25.9 -16.1

South West +1.9 +50.0 -28.6

England +9.2 +32.7 -20.6

Page 9: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Housebuilding: Houses v Flats1999, 2004

Dwellings: % of total

1999 2004

Houses Flats Houses Flats

North East 88 12 83 17

North West 85 15 73 27

Yorks Humber 93 7 71 29

East Midlands 93 7 86 14

West Midlands *88 *13 71 29

East of England *91 *10 78 22

London 41 59 20 80

South East 83 17 62 38

South West 90 10 74 26

England 84 16 66 34

Page 10: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

What do people want?

• Home Alone (Hooper et al 1998): only 10% want a flat; 33% won’t consider a flat

• CPRE (Champion et al 1998): people want to live in/near country

• Hedges and Clemens (q. Breheny 1997): city dwellers least satisfied

• Conclusion: we hate cities!

Page 11: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Housing Preferences:MORI for CABE, 2005

• Over half the population want to live in a detached house

• 22% prefer a bungalow• 14% a semi-detached house• 7% a terraced house • Detached house most popular choice, regardless

of social status or ethnicity• Period properties (Edwardian, Victorian,

Georgian) most desirable overall: 37%

Page 12: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Good and Bad Arguments

• Bad: we must save farmland• Good: we should give people choice of access to

public transport, shops, schools• By public transport as well as car• So: concentrate growth around transport

interchanges• And: raise densities there (“pyramids of density”)

Page 13: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Land Lying Idle…

• EU Set-Aside: June 2004, 476,000 hectares, almost 5.0% of England

• Greater SE: 100,270 hectares, 8.6% • Essex 10.7%• Hampshire 9.1%• Oxfordshire 11.4%• Bedfordshire 11.6%• Far in excess of most generous estimates of land

needed for housing!

Page 14: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

New Households, New Homes• 80% one-person• But only about one-third “single never married”• Will demand more space per household:

Separate kitchens/bathrooms/loos, Spare rooms, Work spaces

• Land saving reduces as densities increase:• 30 dw/ha yields 60% of all potential gains, 40

dw/ha 70 per cent• So biggest gains from minimising development

below 20 dw/h, not increasing 40 dw/ha+• So: go for 30-40 dw/ha with variations: higher

close to transport services (Stockholm 1952!)• But won’t achieve same person densities as

before!

Page 15: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Densification: Effects

Land needed to accommodate 400 dwellingsDensity

Area required, ha.Dws./ha.

Net

Gross

(with local facilities)

Land Saved

%

%

Land Saved

%

%

Total

Cumu-

Total

Cumu-

Saving

lative

Saving

lative 10

40.0

46.3 20

20.0

20.0

50.0

50.0

25.3

21.0

45.4

45.4 30

13.3

6.7

16.7

66.7

17.9

7.4

15.9

61.3 40

10.0

3.3

8.3

75.0

14.3

3.6

7.8

69.1 50

8.0

2.0

5.0

80.0

12.1

2.2

4.8

73.9 60

6.6

1.4

3.5

83.5

10.6

1.5

3.2

77.1 

Page 16: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Density Gradient (Rudlin+Falk)

Page 17: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Lessons from Land Use• Public Transport needs

minimum density:• Bus: 25 dw/ha• LRT: 60 dw/ha• Exceed recent densities• Big gain from 30-35 dw/ha• Plus “pyramids” up to 60

dw/ha round rail stations• Urban Task Force• Traditional – Stockholm,

1952!• Or Edwardian suburbs!

Page 18: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

The Challenge

• Building sustainable suburbs• But: can be Garden Cities too!• “New Towns”: seldom just that…• More often: planned town expansions• The need now: build sustainable urban places –

linked along transport corridors• A big challenge for us: equal to 1950s, 1960s• They did it – so we can we!

Page 19: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Where Are We Now?A 3-Pronged National Spatial Strategy

• 3 key needs:• “Grow SEE”: Better connections on

Sustainable Community Growth Corridors• “Shrinking the N-S Gap”: Bring North,

Midland Core Cities/City Regions closer to London

• “Grow City Regions” around Core Cities

Page 20: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Where Are We Now?A New Geography of England…

• Towards an “English Spatial Strategy”?

• 4 SE Growth Areas

• Plus Northern Way

Page 21: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

South East England:Global Mega-City-Region

Page 22: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Urban Clusters (Hall+Ward 1998)

Page 23: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Sustainable Communities Corridors:Growing the SE into the Midlands…

Page 24: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

The Infrastructure Gap:Roger Tym Report

Page 25: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

The North: Managed Decline?• The great Pathfinder row• How much to keep? How

much to demolish?• Are incentives perverse?• YES: SAVE Britain’s

Heritage• NO: ODPM• Family-Friendly Housing in

Cities• How much Greenfield?• Issues: VAT, Infrastructure

(Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool)

Page 26: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Shrinking the N-S Gap:Slowing Traffic, Speeding Trains…

Page 27: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Shrinking the N-S Gap:A New High-Speed Line?

Page 28: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Shrinking the N-S Gap:From Core Cities to City Regions

• Eight city regions: key to faster economic growth in North

• Build on renaissance of Core Cities

• 90% of population, more than 90% of economic activity/assets

• Most of North’s growth here• 50% higher per capita GVA

growth than rest of North

Page 29: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

City Regions:Accessing the Core City…

London Euston to Manchester PiccadillyOutward Journey on Fri 2 Sep 2005

Option 1 2 3

Depart 07:35 08:05 08:35

Arrive 09:48 10:24 10:48

Duration 2:13 2:19 2:13

Changes 0 0 0

Page 30: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

City Regions:…and Periphery (not quite, actually!)

London Euston to Oldham MumpsOutward Journey on Fri 2 Sep 2005

 

Option 1 2 3

Depart 07:35 08:05 08:35

Arrive 10:44 11:35 11:44

Duration 3:09 3:30 3:09

Changes 2 2 2

Page 31: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Making it happen:The 2004 Act

• Radical change – biggest for 35 years• Working through at regional strategic level• Still to work through at local level• Planning Gain Supplement• Can it solve the “infrastructure deficit”?• The major issue in solving the housing crisis!• But also: the NIMBY factor – will get worse?

Page 32: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Planning Gain Supplement v. S106• Planning Gain Supplement (i.e. development land tax)

on windfall gains by developers • Could vary locally: brownfield v. greenfield• Can it meet the “infrastructure gap”?• Or are existing mechanisms as effective?• MK, Bedford…• So retain “Section 106” as an alternative?• Local versus regional investment: ‘local gain’ for ‘local

pain’ (retention of PGS; higher proportion of Council Tax receipts from new housing)

• But problem of regional infrastructure: Bypasses v. new rail connections…

• Need for better integration ODPM/DfT! SE Orbirail, Manchester Metrolink, etc, etc…

Page 33: THE LAND FETISH A Suitable Case for Dr Freud?

Summing Up:Key Challenges

• Deliver the houses • Defend the “balanced portfolio”• Demonstrate its sustainability • Resist vested interests• Fund the infrastructure• Coordinate development, transport• Countryside – for people!