The Labor Market Situation in March

Office of Economic PolicyApril 7, 2014

Dr. Jennifer HuntDeputy Assistant Secretary, Microeconomic

Analysis

22Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy2

Payroll survey: met (fairly) high expectations

1-month change, in thousands• March 2014

192• February 2014

188• January 2014

16612-month change, in thousands

• March 2013 to 2014:

2,265• Average:

189

33Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy3

Previous months revised +37,000The longer trend still shows steady growth

44Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy4

Seems slow patch was indeed weather

Private sector employment has surpassed pre-recession peak

Sector we were still monitoring was retail trade– Still a bit sluggish for third month: – +21,000 compared to average of 26,000 last 12 months

55Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy5

Employment growth by super-sector this month

66Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy6

Employment growth by super-sector over the year

77Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy7

Unemployment rate was flat…

March 2014 6.7%

February 20146.7%

January 2014 6.6%

March 2013: 7.5%

88Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy8

…employment rate ticked up again – trend?

March 2014: 58.9%

February 2014:58.8%

January 2014: 58.8%

March 2013: 58.5%

99Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy9

LFP ticked up (trend?) – though flat over the year

March 2014: 63.2%

February 2014:63.0%

January 2014: 63.0%

March 2013: 63.3%

1010Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy10

Not in Labor Force-331,000

Employed+476,000

Unemployed+27,000

Not in Labor Force84,375,000

Employed139,287,000

Unemployed5,867,000

More entrants got jobs than became unemployed

1,91

6,00

0 4,038,000

2,27

5,00

0 4,101,000

2,315,000

2,692,000

net other 9,000 net other 110,000

net other 54,000

1111Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy11

Long-term unemployment rate ticked down, but remains highest since 1983

March 2014: 2.4%

February 2014:2.5%

January 2014: 2.3%

March 2013: 3.0%

1212Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy12

Part-time employment remains elevated,but more full-time than part-time jobs being created

past 12 months• full-time employment

+ 2,102,000 • part-time employment

+191,000 since ACA was passed (March 2010) • full-time employment

+ 6,813,000• part-time employment

+126,000

1313Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy13

Weather had reduced hours, but returned to record high (since July 1945)

1414Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy14

Average hourly earnings up 2.1% over-the-year

1515Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy15

Summary of month

Hours have recovered from weather

Back to the pre-shutdown pattern of steady employment growth – Keeps up with population growth– Possibly seeing movement in employment rate, participation

Wages– Pretty steady 2% annually in nominal terms– Falling inflation just under 2% is helping purchasing power– But real wages remain low

Thank you!

1717Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy17

Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough

1818Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy18

Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS