The Kashmir The Kashmir Conflict: UN Conflict: UN

SolutionsSolutions

By Suchin By Suchin Gururangan, Kiron Gururangan, Kiron Lebeck, and Niel Lebeck, and Niel

LebeckLebeck

OverviewOverview

• Background and historyBackground and history

• Positions of involved partiesPositions of involved parties

• Recent developmentsRecent developments

• United Nations involvementUnited Nations involvement

• Potential solutionsPotential solutions

• Our proposalOur proposal

The Basics of the The Basics of the ConflictConflict

• The Kashmir conflict is a dispute between The Kashmir conflict is a dispute between India and Pakistan over control of the region India and Pakistan over control of the region of Kashmirof Kashmir

• Each country lays claim to Kashmir due to Each country lays claim to Kashmir due to nationalism and the controversial politics of nationalism and the controversial politics of the regionthe region

• Conflicting ideologies and the refusal of either Conflicting ideologies and the refusal of either party to compromise have stymied efforts to party to compromise have stymied efforts to reach a solution reach a solution

GeographyGeography

• Bordered by Afghanistan, Bordered by Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and ChinaPakistan, India, and China

• Contains about 85,000 Contains about 85,000 square miles of landsquare miles of land

• Mountainous, sparsely Mountainous, sparsely populated regionpopulated region

• Varied climate due to Varied climate due to elevationelevation

• Most populated area is Most populated area is the Vale of Kashmir, on the Vale of Kashmir, on the Indian side the Indian side

• Currently, Kashmir is Currently, Kashmir is divided into three divided into three regions: one controlled regions: one controlled by India, one controlled by India, one controlled by Pakistan, and a small by Pakistan, and a small area controlled by Chinaarea controlled by China

DemographicsDemographics

• According to a 2001 census, Kashmir has According to a 2001 census, Kashmir has about 10 million residentsabout 10 million residents• 7.5 million in Indian-controlled territory7.5 million in Indian-controlled territory• 2.5 million in Pakistani-controlled territory2.5 million in Pakistani-controlled territory

• Three-quarters of the population are Muslim, Three-quarters of the population are Muslim, and the remaining one-quarter is and the remaining one-quarter is predominantly Hindupredominantly Hindu

History of History of Occupation and ConflictOccupation and Conflict

• Great Britain controlled India Great Britain controlled India from 1612 until 1947from 1612 until 1947• Under British rule, Kashmir was a Under British rule, Kashmir was a

princely state—it was directly princely state—it was directly ruled by a maharaja that ruled by a maharaja that answered to the Britishanswered to the British

• 1947-India gains independence 1947-India gains independence from Britainfrom Britain• The independence agreement The independence agreement

partitions India into two nations, partitions India into two nations, India and PakistanIndia and Pakistan

• The Maharaja of Kashmir The Maharaja of Kashmir accedes his province to India, accedes his province to India, prompting war between India prompting war between India and Pakistanand Pakistan

• 1948 – UN Security Council 1948 – UN Security Council passes resolution 47, passes resolution 47, mandating a ceasefire along mandating a ceasefire along the Line of Control (LOC) and the Line of Control (LOC) and paving the way for a potential paving the way for a potential plebisciteplebiscite

• 1957-India declares all of 1957-India declares all of Kashmir a state of the Indian Kashmir a state of the Indian UnionUnion

• 1965 – Alleged infiltration 1965 – Alleged infiltration attempts by Pakistan instigate attempts by Pakistan instigate a second Indo-Pakistani war in a second Indo-Pakistani war in KashmirKashmir

• 1989 – Militancy in the region 1989 – Militancy in the region escalatesescalates

• 1999 – Pakistani forces cross 1999 – Pakistani forces cross the LOC, and India responds the LOC, and India responds by declaring warby declaring war

• 2005 – India and Pakistan 2005 – India and Pakistan agree to a new ceasefire agree to a new ceasefire

Divided KashmirDivided Kashmir

Indian KashmirIndian Kashmir

• India controls the India controls the southeast portion of southeast portion of Kashmir, which has the Kashmir, which has the most fertile landmost fertile land

• Indian territory is Indian territory is governed as a state, governed as a state, called Jammu and called Jammu and KashmirKashmir

Pakistani KashmirPakistani Kashmir

• Pakistan controls the Pakistan controls the northwest, with a harsher northwest, with a harsher climate and sparser climate and sparser populationpopulation

• Pakistan’s territory is divided Pakistan’s territory is divided into two regions: Azad into two regions: Azad Kashmir, or free Kashmir, Kashmir, or free Kashmir, which has its own which has its own government, and the government, and the Northern Areas, which are Northern Areas, which are governed directly by Pakistangoverned directly by Pakistan

• Azad Kashmir is about 4,500 Azad Kashmir is about 4,500 square miles, and the square miles, and the Northern Areas are about Northern Areas are about 28,000 square miles28,000 square miles

Divided kashmirDivided kashmir

India’s PositionsIndia’s Positions

• The accession of Kashmir to India is legally The accession of Kashmir to India is legally indisputableindisputable

• Religion is irrelevant in determining control of Religion is irrelevant in determining control of Kashmir—a large Muslim community supported Kashmir—a large Muslim community supported the accession of Kashmir to Indiathe accession of Kashmir to India

• The Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism in The Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism in Kashmir disrupts the democratic process in the Kashmir disrupts the democratic process in the regionregion

• International intervention is out of the International intervention is out of the question, as Kashmir is strictly India’s affairquestion, as Kashmir is strictly India’s affair

Pakistan’s PositionsPakistan’s Positions

• Kashmir rightfully belongs to Pakistan due to Kashmir rightfully belongs to Pakistan due to their religious and economic tiestheir religious and economic ties

• Pakistan does not provide material aid to any Pakistan does not provide material aid to any terrorists or insurgents in Kashmirterrorists or insurgents in Kashmir

• In accordance with the UN Security Council, In accordance with the UN Security Council, Pakistan considers India’s claim to Kashmir Pakistan considers India’s claim to Kashmir invalidinvalid

• The Kashmiri people should be allowed to The Kashmiri people should be allowed to choose between Pakistani and Indian control choose between Pakistani and Indian control through a plebiscitethrough a plebiscite

Kashmir’s PositionsKashmir’s Positions

• Kashmiris overwhelmingly favor Kashmiris overwhelmingly favor independenceindependence

• A poll conducted in the Kashmiri capital of A poll conducted in the Kashmiri capital of Srinagar in 2007 revealed that 87% of Srinagar in 2007 revealed that 87% of Kashmiris desire independence, 7% favor Kashmiris desire independence, 7% favor Indian rule, and 3% prefer Pakistani controlIndian rule, and 3% prefer Pakistani control

• Kashmiris oppose Indian rule due to the Kashmiris oppose Indian rule due to the restrictions placed on them by Indian security restrictions placed on them by Indian security forces and alleged human rights abuses by forces and alleged human rights abuses by the Indian governmentthe Indian government

The Mumbai Attacks The Mumbai Attacks and Kashmir and Kashmir

• On November 26th-29th 2008, On November 26th-29th 2008, Mumbai, India’s greatest commercial Mumbai, India’s greatest commercial capital, came under siege by ten capital, came under siege by ten terrorists.terrorists.

• Ten coordinated attacks, each Ten coordinated attacks, each conducted in populous areas of conducted in populous areas of Mumbai, killed at least 173 people Mumbai, killed at least 173 people and left 308 injured. and left 308 injured.

• Presently, the terrorists are suspected Presently, the terrorists are suspected to have originated from Pakistanto have originated from Pakistan• Terrorist organization: Lashkar-e-Terrorist organization: Lashkar-e-

TaibaTaiba• Currently being denied by Currently being denied by

Pakistani officialsPakistani officials

• Terrorists’ motives seem to be partly Terrorists’ motives seem to be partly related to Kashmirrelated to Kashmir• Lashkar-e-Taiba operates several Lashkar-e-Taiba operates several

training camps in Kashmir, and training camps in Kashmir, and regularly carries out offensives regularly carries out offensives against Indian forces in Jammu against Indian forces in Jammu and Kashmir.and Kashmir.

The Mumbai Attacks The Mumbai Attacks and Kashmir and Kashmir

• These atrocities highlight the need for settlement of the Kashmir conflict to ensure These atrocities highlight the need for settlement of the Kashmir conflict to ensure lasting cooperation between India and Pakistanlasting cooperation between India and Pakistan

• Collaboration between these two nations could help combat extremismCollaboration between these two nations could help combat extremism

• The Mumbai attacks have engendered a rapid increase in tensions among Pakistani The Mumbai attacks have engendered a rapid increase in tensions among Pakistani and Indian officials who are already engulfed in mutual distrustand Indian officials who are already engulfed in mutual distrust• India has accused Pakistan’s Inter-service Intelligence (ISI) of training and giving India has accused Pakistan’s Inter-service Intelligence (ISI) of training and giving

intelligence to Lashkar-e-Taiba as well as other terrorist organizations in Pakistan intelligence to Lashkar-e-Taiba as well as other terrorist organizations in Pakistan • Pakistan insists that it only gives the rebels in Kashmir diplomatic and moral Pakistan insists that it only gives the rebels in Kashmir diplomatic and moral

support, not material aid or training.support, not material aid or training.

The symbol of Lashkar-e-Taiba

The War on Terror and The War on Terror and KashmirKashmir

• Centered in the Middle East, but spread over multiple continentsCentered in the Middle East, but spread over multiple continents

• An international conflict led by the United States, United Kingdom, and NATO forces An international conflict led by the United States, United Kingdom, and NATO forces against Islamic terrorism in response to the September 11against Islamic terrorism in response to the September 11 thth attacks in the United attacks in the United StatesStates

• Objectives includeObjectives include• Securing American bordersSecuring American borders

• Preventing activities of international terrorist networksPreventing activities of international terrorist networks

• Ending state sponsorship of terrorismEnding state sponsorship of terrorism

• Preventing re-emergence of terrorism abroadPreventing re-emergence of terrorism abroad..

• United States presence in Central/South Asia and alliances with Pakistan and India United States presence in Central/South Asia and alliances with Pakistan and India in the War on Terror increase American ability to intervene in the Indo-Pakistani in the War on Terror increase American ability to intervene in the Indo-Pakistani Peace ProcessPeace Process

• Pakistan’s emergence as a United States partner on the War on TerrorPakistan’s emergence as a United States partner on the War on Terror

• Pressure by Washington resulted in the banning of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Pressure by Washington resulted in the banning of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad in KashmirMuhammad in Kashmir

• US donates about 1 billion dollars in military aid to Islamabad each yearUS donates about 1 billion dollars in military aid to Islamabad each year

• Many factors contribute to Pakistani insecurity: Many factors contribute to Pakistani insecurity: • US presence in Afghanistan (Western Border)US presence in Afghanistan (Western Border)

• Indian presence on the Eastern BorderIndian presence on the Eastern Border

• Deep intelligence ties between India, Afghanistan, and the USDeep intelligence ties between India, Afghanistan, and the US

Musharraf and Ali Zardari: Pakistan’s Musharraf and Ali Zardari: Pakistan’s Political LeadershipPolitical Leadership

Pervez Musharaff (2001-2008)Pervez Musharaff (2001-2008)

• Proposed a four point solution to Proposed a four point solution to Kashmir:Kashmir:

- gradual demilitarization- gradual demilitarization

- greater autonomy, but no - greater autonomy, but no independenceindependence

- no changes to the region's - no changes to the region's bordersborders

- joint supervision mechanism or - joint supervision mechanism or UN mandate over regionUN mandate over region

• Banned Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Banned Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad after they were Muhammad after they were accused of orchestrating an attack accused of orchestrating an attack against the Indian Parliamentagainst the Indian Parliament• The ban’s impact was superficial The ban’s impact was superficial

and did little to hinder insurgency and did little to hinder insurgency in Kashmirin Kashmir

Asif Ali Zardari (Incumbent)Asif Ali Zardari (Incumbent)

• Determined to normalize Determined to normalize trade and political relations trade and political relations with Indiawith India

• Offered to “set Kashmir issue Offered to “set Kashmir issue aside” aside”

• Has no support from Has no support from Pakistani military on the issuePakistani military on the issue

• Despite his determination, the Despite his determination, the president has stated that he is president has stated that he is ready to “thwart any ready to “thwart any aggression from the East” if aggression from the East” if need beneed be

United Nations United Nations InvolvementInvolvement

• The United Nations has played only a minor The United Nations has played only a minor role in the Kashmir Conflict so farrole in the Kashmir Conflict so far

• UN involvement has been limited to ceasefire UN involvement has been limited to ceasefire negotiations and an attempted plebiscitenegotiations and an attempted plebiscite

UN-Brokered CeasefiresUN-Brokered Ceasefires

• During the 1948 Indo-Pakistani War, the UN During the 1948 Indo-Pakistani War, the UN Security Council passed Resolutions 39 and Security Council passed Resolutions 39 and 47, establishing the creation of a United 47, establishing the creation of a United Nations Commission on India and Pakistan Nations Commission on India and Pakistan (UNCIP)(UNCIP)

• UNCIP then passed resolutions calling for a UNCIP then passed resolutions calling for a ceasefire across the Line of Controlceasefire across the Line of Control

• The Security Council also brokered a ceasefire The Security Council also brokered a ceasefire in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 and in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 and enforced it with Resolution 211enforced it with Resolution 211

The PlebisciteThe Plebiscite

• After the Indo-Pakistani War of 1948, UNCIP established After the Indo-Pakistani War of 1948, UNCIP established the framework for a plebiscite to decide the future the framework for a plebiscite to decide the future status of Kashmirstatus of Kashmir

• The plebiscite would offer Kashmiris a choice between The plebiscite would offer Kashmiris a choice between Indian and Pakistani ruleIndian and Pakistani rule

• Both Indian and Pakistani governments initially agreed Both Indian and Pakistani governments initially agreed to the plebisciteto the plebiscite

• Since 1948, the plebiscite has been repeatedly delayedSince 1948, the plebiscite has been repeatedly delayed

• The Indian government claims that a requirement of The Indian government claims that a requirement of Pakistani militant withdrawal has not been met, blaming Pakistani militant withdrawal has not been met, blaming Pakistan for the delay Pakistan for the delay

• The Pakistani government maintains its innocence and The Pakistani government maintains its innocence and desire for the plebiscite, putting the blame on Indiadesire for the plebiscite, putting the blame on India

Initial StepsInitial Steps

• The United Nations must take a more proactive The United Nations must take a more proactive role in resolving the Kashmir Conflictrole in resolving the Kashmir Conflict

• The United Nations must first encourage the The United Nations must first encourage the normalization of relations between India and normalization of relations between India and PakistanPakistan• Encourage sharing of intelligence and increased Encourage sharing of intelligence and increased

cooperation in combating extremismcooperation in combating extremism• Provide economic incentives to foster bilateral tradeProvide economic incentives to foster bilateral trade• Create a commission to investigate and prevent Create a commission to investigate and prevent

state-sponsored terrorism in both nationsstate-sponsored terrorism in both nations• Provide peacekeeping troops to secure the borders Provide peacekeeping troops to secure the borders

of India, Pakistan, and Kashmir and to prevent the of India, Pakistan, and Kashmir and to prevent the movement of militantsmovement of militants

UN PlebisciteUN Plebiscite

• Pros:Pros:• The plebiscite was The plebiscite was

recommended by the recommended by the UNCIP as a method of UNCIP as a method of resolving the conflictresolving the conflict

• The plebiscite is The plebiscite is officially endorsed by officially endorsed by the Pakistani the Pakistani governmentgovernment

• Cons:Cons:• The currently proposed The currently proposed

plebiscite would only plebiscite would only allow the residents of allow the residents of Kashmir to choose Kashmir to choose between Indian or between Indian or Pakistan control, when Pakistan control, when many desire the option many desire the option of independenceof independence

• The plebiscite has been The plebiscite has been repeatedly stalled due to repeatedly stalled due to disagreements between disagreements between India and Pakistan over India and Pakistan over the requirements of the requirements of Resolution 47Resolution 47

Plebiscite Result: Plebiscite Result: Pakistani ControlPakistani Control

• ProsPros• Integrates Kashmir into Integrates Kashmir into

a Muslim state, a Muslim state, providing for greater providing for greater religious harmonyreligious harmony

• ConsCons• Pakistan has an Pakistan has an

unstable governmentunstable government

• Non-Muslims may Non-Muslims may become second-class become second-class citizens and subject to citizens and subject to persecutionpersecution

• Engenders Indian Engenders Indian outrage and nationalismoutrage and nationalism

• Kashmiri citizens Kashmiri citizens strongly prefer strongly prefer independence independence

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari

Plebiscite Result: Indian Plebiscite Result: Indian ControlControl

• ProsPros• Places Kashmir in the Places Kashmir in the

control of a stable control of a stable governmentgovernment

• ConsCons• Legitimizes the human Legitimizes the human

rights abuses rights abuses committed by the committed by the Indian governmentIndian government

• Enrages Pakistani Enrages Pakistani citizens and military, citizens and military, likely sparking conflictlikely sparking conflict

• Kashmiri citizens Kashmiri citizens strongly prefer strongly prefer independence independence

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

Maintaining a Divided Maintaining a Divided KashmirKashmir

• ProsPros• Requires the smallest Requires the smallest

investment of time and investment of time and resourcesresources

• ConsCons• Provides a source for Provides a source for

continued tension continued tension between the two between the two nationsnations

• Fuels nationalist Fuels nationalist sentiments among both sentiments among both Indian and Pakistani Indian and Pakistani citizenscitizens

• Goes against the will of Goes against the will of the Kashmiri peoplethe Kashmiri people

Kashmiri IndependenceKashmiri Independence• ProsPros

• Satisfies the will of the Satisfies the will of the Kashmiri peopleKashmiri people

• Prevents the issue from Prevents the issue from being a point of being a point of contention between contention between India and PakistanIndia and Pakistan

• Precludes further Precludes further human rights abuses human rights abuses from the Indian militaryfrom the Indian military

• Diminishes the Diminishes the motivation of extremists motivation of extremists and insurgentsand insurgents

• ConsCons• Opposed by the Indian Opposed by the Indian

and Pakistani and Pakistani governmentsgovernments

• Fledgling nation may Fledgling nation may not have a stable not have a stable economy or economy or governmentgovernment

• The Hindu population The Hindu population would be a minority, would be a minority, and tensions between and tensions between Muslims and Hindus Muslims and Hindus could developcould develop

Our PositionOur Position

• We believe that Kashmir must become an We believe that Kashmir must become an independent stateindependent state

• The United Nations must take a proactive role The United Nations must take a proactive role in securing Kashmiri sovereigntyin securing Kashmiri sovereignty

A Proposal for a A Proposal for a SolutionSolution

1.1. Establish a Kashmiri Sovereignty Commission (KSC)Establish a Kashmiri Sovereignty Commission (KSC)1.1. The commission would first determine the viability of Kashmiri The commission would first determine the viability of Kashmiri

independence in terms of economic and political stabilityindependence in terms of economic and political stability2.2. The commission would then hold a referendum in Kashmir confirming the The commission would then hold a referendum in Kashmir confirming the

people’s desire for independence people’s desire for independence

2. Considering the results of the referendum, introduce a resolution urging 2. Considering the results of the referendum, introduce a resolution urging the global community to support Kashmiri sovereigntythe global community to support Kashmiri sovereignty

3. Use support from the global community to persuade India and Pakistan to 3. Use support from the global community to persuade India and Pakistan to recognize Kashmir as an independent nationrecognize Kashmir as an independent nation

4. Draft a resolution in the Security Council recognizing Kashmir as a 4. Draft a resolution in the Security Council recognizing Kashmir as a sovereign state and calling for demilitarization of the regionsovereign state and calling for demilitarization of the region

5. Establish a UN transitional government in Kashmir to develop 5. Establish a UN transitional government in Kashmir to develop infrastructure and securityinfrastructure and security

6.Hold elections for an independent, parliamentary government6.Hold elections for an independent, parliamentary government

A Proposal for A A Proposal for A SolutionSolution

• This proposal is contingent on the This proposal is contingent on the participation of member nations in creating participation of member nations in creating the necessary resolutions and commissionsthe necessary resolutions and commissions

• If India and Pakistan fail to recognize Kashmir If India and Pakistan fail to recognize Kashmir as independent, more forceful action could be as independent, more forceful action could be taken; Kosovo provides a precedenttaken; Kosovo provides a precedent

• In this proposal, the United Nations acts as In this proposal, the United Nations acts as the medium used to achieve a lasting solution the medium used to achieve a lasting solution for the conflict for the conflict

ConclusionConclusion

• Greater understanding of this conflict---history Greater understanding of this conflict---history and developmentsand developments

• The necessity of resolving this conflict, as well The necessity of resolving this conflict, as well as potential solutions as potential solutions

• The important role that the UN has in The important role that the UN has in mediating the situationmediating the situation

THE END

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