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The Joint Policy Committee

July 20, 2012

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JPC: Bay Area Climate & Energy Resilience Project

“Preparing the Bay Area for a Changing Climate”

June 7th Workshop

Kresge Foundation Grant

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Problem We Are Trying to Solve

Reinventing the Adaptation Wheel

Small and mid-sized cities don’t have capacity

Some impacts cross city and county boundaries — Solutions will affect neighbors

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Problem We Are Trying to Solve

Infrastructure owned by a responsible party — Natural system protection, health more complex

State providing products and services — Can do this more efficiently thru regional collaborations

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Preparing the Bay Area for a Changing Climate

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June 7th Workshop @ Metro

80 participants

18-month roadmap

Bay Area story

Project spotlights

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Kresge Foundation Proposal

Six-month initial grant to organize collaborative

$75K - $100K

20+ stakeholder meetings: Increase support for adaptation, ID needs, shape plan

Special work plans: Social equity, GHGs + adaptation, research + action

White paper: Governance/decision-making

Interim structure & 12-month action plan

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Rising Bay Area Sea Level

Source: California Climate Indicators, 2010

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California AverageAnnual

Temperature+ 1.7˚F

1895-2011

Source: Western RegionalClimate Center

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More California warmingat night

Sources: NCDC (2007), Gershunov (2008)

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Bay Area Temp Data Mixed

NBWA 100-year study: + 2.7˚F. Less warming near coast. More warming with increasing distance from ocean.

Lebassi 50-year Bay Area study: “Complex pattern” with cooling in low-elevation areas with marine air penetration and warming in inland areas.

Null 1970-2000 vs. 1980-2010 Bay Area data: San Rafael, SF, Oakland, San Jose cooled slightly. Napa, Santa Rosa, Vacaville warmed slightly.

Longer Time Frames BETTER

Source: UCAR for National Science Foundation

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Bay Area & California

PrecipitationNO overall

trend

Source: Western Regional Climate Center

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SignificantSierra

Changes

Tahoe: More Rain Less

Snow

Source: Coats, UC Davis

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Shrinking Sierra

Glaciers

Source: Basagic, 2008

Less Runoff April-July

Source: CA Dept of Water Resources

Source: Westerling, 2006

Complex Forces at Work:More/Larger Western Wildfires

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Economic Impacts in Bay Area

In California, climate risk—the damage that will occur if no action is taken—would include tens of billions per year in direct economic costs for public health, agriculture, tourism and other sectors.”

Source: Roland-Holst, 2008

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Economic Impacts in Bay Area

The amount of high-value Northern California land suitable for growing premium wine grapes could be cut in half by 2040 because of global warming, based on the conservative assumption of +2˚F globally.

Source: Diffenbaugh, 2011

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Health Impacts in Bay Area

The 2006 California heat wave, unprecedented in length for Northern California, had a significant and documented affect on emergency rooms visits and hospitalizations. Young children and the elderly were especially at risk

(Knowlton, 2011)

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Ecosystem Impacts in Bay Area

Climate change will impact the future health of San Francisco Bay. This includes droughts altering freshwater flows and water use, and floods and sea level rise altering landscapes and human behavior.

Source: State of the Bay, 2011

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Water Impacts in Bay Area

The Delta is California’s Katrina waiting to happen. -- Sen. Joe Simitian

The Delta, which provides a substantial amount of the Bay Area’s water, including half of Silicon Valley’s water, is threatened by extreme storms, sea level rise, land subsidence, and earthquakes. Source: Integrated Regional Water Management Plan

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Human Impacts in Bay Area

An individual’s vulnerability to heatwaves, high air pollution days, floods, fires, and other climate-related events is affected by age, income, ethnicity, social isolation, transportation access, living conditions, and other issues.

Source: Pacific Institute, 2010

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Bay Area SLR Projects (examples)

Adapting to Rising Tides

Hayward Shoreline Sea Level Rise Project

South Bay $1 Billion Levee Drive

SFEP Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot Project

Our Coast, Our Future

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Bay Area Ecosystems Projects (examples)

Bay Area Ecosystems Climate Change Consortium

North Bay Climate Adaptation Initiative

PRBO Conservation Science Climate Change Program

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Bay Area Water Projects (examples)

SFPUC Sensitivity of Upper Tuolumne River Flow to Climate Change

Sonoma County Water Agency Carbon Free Water by 2020

Bay Delta Conservation Plan

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Bay Area Energy Projects (examples)

Bay Area Smart Energy 2020

Bay Area Bridge to Clean Economy

Marin Clean Energy

Regional Renewable Energy Procurement Project

HELiOS Project (Solar Schools)

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Bay Area Resilience Projects (examples)

Bay Localize Climate and Energy Adaptation — Community Resilience Toolkit

ABAG Regional Disaster Resilience Initiative

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Lack of technical solutions is generally not the issue in California. The biggest barriers to implementing adaptation plans are institutional, motivational, and economic.

(Moser, Ekstrom, 2012)

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Benefits to JPC Agencies

Help cities and counties

Increase support for sea level rise strategy and other measures

SCS I and II input

Reduce urban heat island impacts (ozone, health, energy)

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The Joint Policy Committee

July 20, 2012