the india maize summit new delhi 21 st march 2013

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THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI 21 ST MARCH 2013

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THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI 21 ST MARCH 2013. MAIZE S&D – GLOBAL/INDIAN RABI 2013 PRODUCTION ESTIMATES INDIA MAIZE EXPORTS DESTINATION MARKETS MAIZE PX SERIES CHART FUTURE CHALLENGES ROLE OF INDIA IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE. FLOW OF PRESENTATION. MAIZE GLOBAL S&D. Source - IGC. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT

NEW DELHI

21ST MARCH 2013

Page 2: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

FLOW OF PRESENTATION

• MAIZE S&D – GLOBAL/INDIAN• RABI 2013 PRODUCTION ESTIMATES• INDIA MAIZE EXPORTS• DESTINATION MARKETS• MAIZE PX SERIES CHART• FUTURE CHALLENGES• ROLE OF INDIA IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Page 3: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

MAIZE GLOBAL S&DMARKET YEAR 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

     Production (MMT) 820 830 877 883

Trade (MMT) 86 93 97 99Consumption (MMT) 822 844 875 880

Carry over stocks (MMT) 145 131 133 132

Source - IGC

• CBOT prices which have tumbled in Nov and Dec have recovered some ground after Jan USDA report, which reported higher than expected feed usage

• Better crop estimates for US and Argentina, global output revised upwards by 38 mmt, to 883 mmt.

• Global end-season stocks expected to be down by 1m t y/y

• World consumption is revised higher, but forecasts for overall declines in both feed and industrial use remain.

Page 4: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

CBOT PRICE SERIES CHART

US Drought fears

Page 5: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

MARKET YEAR (OCT-SEPT.) 2010 2011 2012

Beginning Stocks (MMT) 0.453 0.576 0.756

Area Harvested (MHA) 8.6 8.67 8.5

Production (MMT) 21.73 21.57 20

Imports (MMT) 0.019 0.01 0.01

Total Supply (MMT) 22.202 22.156 20.766

Feed Domestic Consumption (MMT) 9 9 9.5

FSI Consumption (MMT) 9.1 8.6 8.5

Domestic Consumption (MMT) 18.1 17.6 18

Exports (MMT) 3.526 3.8 2.5

Total Demand (MMT) 21.626 21.4 20.5

Ending Stocks (MMT) 0.576 0.756 0.266

MAIZE INDIA S&D

Page 6: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

IMPACT OF MAIZE INDIA S&D

• Drop in Kharif production from 16.2 to 14 .5 Mn YoY • Projected fall in exports due to Domestic S&D imbalance and

relatively bearish to stable international markets.• Ending stocks precariously low unless Rabi goes beyond 6.2 Mn • Later part of the year can see upsurge in domestic prices.• Improved poultry demand within India will add on to the existing

demand.• Alternate usages of corn increasing in starch/distillery/biofuel.

Page 7: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

INDIA RABI PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 2012-13

Production (figures in '000 tons)

Major increase in production is expected in AP & Bihar …..

States 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13E

Andhra Pradesh 2.59 1.77 2.32 2.27 2.69

Bihar 1.34 1.08 1.02 0.99 1.23

Gujarat 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.23 0.20

Karnataka 0.31 0.26 0.33 0.43 0.41

Maharashtra 0.24 0.30 0.39 0.31 0.27

Tamil Nadu 0.57 0.45 0.47 0.77 0.97

West Bengal 0.09 0.13 0.08 0.28 0.16

All India 5.61 4.43 5.09 5.35 5.93

Page 8: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

On the export front, in the current marketing year (Oct12-Sep13), total maize exports reported around 1.87 million tons during the October- February month.

During Feb month, 0.552 million tons corn exports reported to Indonesia, UAE, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, China, Bahrain, Singapore, Philippines through JNPT Sea, Chennai Sea & Vizag Sea port.

INDIAN MAIZE EXPORTS

Page 9: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

COUNTRY TY 2011/12 OCT-12 TO FEB-13Indonesia 1.21 0.73Vietnam 1.30 0.28Malaysia 1.04 0.28Taiwan 0.34 0.15

Bangladesh 0.29 0.04Kenya 0.02 0.02Yemen 0.06 0.02

Singapore 0.05 0.01Cameroon 0.02 0.00

Others 0.59 0.35Grand Total 4.91 1.87

DESTINATION MARKETS AND EXPORTS

Vietnam had Trogoderma issues coupled with afla problems .

Page 10: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

1.21

1.31.04

0.340.29

0.020.06

0.050.02

0.59

Indonesia Vietnam Malaysia Taiwan Bangladesh Kenya Yemen SingaporeCameroon Others

MAJOR DESTINATION MARKETS

Page 11: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

* PRICES FOLLOWING A LONG TERM BULLISH TREND SO DO THE MSP

MAIZE PX SERIES CHART

5-Jan-0

5

16-Mar

-05

25-May

-05

3-Aug-0

5

12-Oct-

05

21-Dec

-05

1-Mar

-06

10-May

-06

19-Jul-0

6

27-Sep-0

6

6-Dec

-06

14-Feb-0

7

25-Apr-0

7

4-Jul-0

7

12-Sep-0

7

21-Nov-0

7

30-Jan-0

8

9-Apr-0

8

18-Jun-0

8

27-Aug-0

8

5-Nov-0

8

14-Jan-0

9

25-Mar

-09

3-Jun-0

9

12-Aug-0

9

21-Oct-

09

30-Dec

-09

10-Mar

-10

19-May

-10

28-Jul-1

0

6-Oct-

10

15-Dec

-10

23-Feb-1

1

4-May

-11

13-Jul-1

1

21-Sep-1

1

30-Nov-1

1

8-Feb

-12

18-Apr-1

2

27-Jun-1

2

5-Sep-1

2

14-Nov-1

20

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800NIZAMABAD MAIZE SPOT PRICES

NIZAMABAD

Axis Title

620 840

880

540

9801175

Page 12: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

FUTURE CHALLENGES• STAGNATING PRODUCTION

• GMO still not allowed• Competing crops• Global warming leading to inconsistent weather.

• LACK OF QUALITY CONSISTENCY• High on aflatoxin & mycotoxins• Not deemed fit for human consumption in developed nations.• Lack of mechanization for harvesting

• LOGISTICAL ISSUES • Higher wastages during transit• Rail/road transport always a limiting factor for speedy movement• Frequent Port Congestions

• LACK OF QUALITY WAREHOUSING• Inadequate and poor quality warehousing facilities.• Long term storage always remains a concern.

Page 13: THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI  21 ST  MARCH 2013

THANK YOU