The Global Effort to

Understand Carbon Dioxide

James R. Mahoney, Ph.D.Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere

NOAA Deputy Administrator Director: US Climate Change Science Program

September 26, 2005

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Outline

Carbon Dioxide Variability

Role of Atmosphere in Carbon Cycle

Role of Oceans in Carbon Cycle

Role of Terrestrial Processes in Carbon Cycle

Future Directions in Assessing the Carbon Cycle

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Long Term Record of Atmospheric CO2

Increase in CO2 in the past 100 years is unprecedented in ~450ky

Modern record shows increasing NH source throughout century

Interhemispheric difference has been increasing

Seasonal Cycle is largest in NH

Atmospheric CO2

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Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

10 Minor CFC11 CFC12 N2O CH4 CO2

Ra

dia

tiveF

orc

ing

(W

m-2

)

Radiative Forcing by Long-Lived Atmospheric Gases

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Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) Monitoring Sites for CO2

Monitoring Stations for Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

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Courtesy of World Data Centre For Greenhouse Gases

http://gaw.kishou.go.jp/wdcgg.html

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Data-Driven Interpretive Analysis:Identifying Global Sources and Sinks

Oceanic Processes

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Column inventory of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean (mol m2).

High inventories are associated with deep water formation in the North Atlantic and intermediate and mode water formation between 30° and 50°S.

Total inventory of shaded regions is 106 ± 17 Pg C. (From Sabine et al. 2004)

Ocean Carbon Inventory

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Sea-air exchange of carbon dioxide

Terrestrial Processes

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Terrestrial biosphere takes up approximately three billion tons of human emitted carbon dioxide per year

Carbon Dioxide Partitioning

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Average concentrations of CO2 in marine surface air indicate that the continent of North America could be a net sink of CO2.

Or is this a more “local” effect that is caused mainly by sources/sinks in the ocean basins?

part

s pe

r m

illio

n

CO2 in Air:North Atlantic minus North Pacific

Future

Directions

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US Effort—Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

Guides and directs federal research efforts

Answers emerging climate science questions addresses key climate research challenges

Involves 13 Federal Agencies/Departments

Overseen by Ministerial/Cabinet-level officials

Operates on a ~$2B annual expenditure

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CCSP Strategic Plan(www.climatescience.gov)

Chapter 3: Atmospheric Composition

Chapter 7: Carbon Cycle

Chapter 12: Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

S&A Product 2.2: Will provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the North American carbon budget and its context within the global carbon cycle. In a format useful to decisionmakers

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International Efforts— GEOSS

Leadership in development and implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

GCOS is a major contribution to GEOSS for climate observations

GEOSS supports integrated global observations of CO2 & related gases

Climate Technical Reference Document (USG document)

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Charles David Keeling1928—2005