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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar Mr. Paul Martin, ESEP Systems Engineer [email protected] The Future of Systems Engineering 1 Future of Systems Engineering

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Page 1: The Future of Systems Engineering - Squarespacestatic.squarespace.com/static/51eacd5be4b0161a067dfde4/t/530fbf… · The Future of Systems Engineering Future of Systems Engineering

International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar

Mr. Paul Martin, ESEP

Systems Engineer

[email protected]

The Future of Systems

Engineering

1 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

SEs are Problem-solvers

Across an organization’s products or

services, systems engineers also provide

critical leadership for integrating the

technical activities. They have skills to

influence multidisciplinary teams to reach

consensus on how the system solution

should come together. As problem-

solvers, they focus on outcome, not

process.

2 Future of Systems Engineering

~ John Thomas, INCOSE President

Why Systems Engineers are Essential to Your Organization

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

How was your Morning?

Look at our life as it interacts with a Man-Made

World

– Housing

– Energy Systems (AC, Batteries)

– Water Filtering and Distribution

– Food Production and Delivery

– Market Systems

– Transportation

– Communications (Landline, Wireless)

– Other things?

3 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Techno-Science

“...science-linked technological innovation…”

• The electric telegraph (1838) was invented and demonstrated by

physicists

• The first "successful" undersea telegraph cable was redesigned

by physicist (1865)

• Commercial electricity generators is based Michael Faraday’s

dynamo (1830)

• Radio technology is directly based on Maxwell’s mathematical

theory of the electromagnetic field (1860’s)

4 Future of Systems Engineering

- from Professor Steven L. Goldman’s Class Great Scientific Ideas That Changed

the World

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Large Engineering Projects

• How did the Manhattan Project or Space

Program, come about:

1. New Technology is used

2. Science well understood

3. Clear Requirements

4. Design from scratch to accomplish mission

• But lately there have been large failures

of projects

5 Future of Systems Engineering

From Bar-Yam, Y., 2003; When Systems Engineering Fails---Toward Complex Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

List of Large Engineering Project

Failures

System Years of Work

(outcome)

Approx.

Cost

IRS Tax Systems Modernization projects 1989 - 1997

(scrapped) $4B

London Ambulance Service Computer

Aided Dispatch System

1991 - 1992

(scrapped)

$2.5M/ 20

lives

FBI Virtual Case File 2001 - 2005

(scrapped) $170M

DoD Expeditionary Combat Support

System (ECSS)

2005 - 2012

(scrapped) $1B

6 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Why failures happen?

• Because Projects have become more

Complex

– interdependent sub-systems

– Law of Requisite Variety -- The larger the

variety of actions available to a control system,

the larger the variety of perturbations it is able

to compensate. -- impossible to completely

test all functions of a complex system

– unanticipated emergent effects

7 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Emergence

• The way complex systems and patterns arise

out of a multiplicity of relatively simple

interactions

• Unintended Consequences = unpredicted

emergence

• The opposite of the Reductionist approach of

Scientist and Systems Engineers.

• Where is the “science” of Systems

Engineering?? – Has Systems Science lead to any new approaches of Systems

Engineering?

8 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Complexity

No clear definition

• To some, complexity is different in different branches of

sciences

• Others argue that there is a single natural phenomenon

called ‘complexity’ which is the subject of a single

scientific theory or approach - no matter the type of

system

• Albert Einstein: “Make everything as simple as possible,

but not simpler.”

• Professor Brian Collins: “Make everything as complex

as possible, but not more complex than it needs to be.”

9 Future of Systems Engineering

From Professor Brian Collins talk on Systems Engineering from 2013 INCOSE International

Symposium in Philadelphia PA.

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

How to deal with complexity

• Simplify objectives, if possible

– Eliminate the complexity

• Or evolve complex systems with

Evolutionary Incremental Developmental

Process

10 Future of Systems Engineering

Is a new approach to Systems

Engineering needed?

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

INCOSE Systems Engineering Vision

2020

INCOSE-TP-2004-004-02

September, 2007

"Complexity can be considered as

a measure of how well knowledge

of a system’s component parts

explains the system’s behavior

and also by the number of

mutually interacting and

interwoven parts, entities or

agents."

11 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Outline

• Systems and their Nature

• Global Systems Engineering

Environment

• Systems Engineering Processes

• Models and Model-based Systems

Engineering

12 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Systems and their Nature

13 Future of Systems Engineering

1. Purpose, Scope & Capability – autonomy

2. Complexity – including components & interfaces

3. Systems of Systems

4. Technology – used in the system itself

5. Embedded Software and information processing

6. Role of Humans – as part of the system

7. Legacy System Composition

Current State and Trends

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Systems and their Nature

14

Future of Systems Engineering

1. Purpose, Scope & Capability – autonomy

• Most engineered legacy systems were developed to meet a single,

defined purpose.

• Tends:

o ambitious systems across greater geography, and with increasing

capability.

o increasingly smaller systems, even micro-systems, based on continually

evolving technologies

2. Complexity – including components & interfaces

• creating solutions for increasingly complex problems o motivated by an overall increase in societal need for systems of ever-

greater variety (scope, miniaturization, accuracy, acuity and autonomy),

effectiveness, and economy.

• significant project failures

• growing recognition of the important role played by the system’s

architect

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Systems and their Nature

15 Future of Systems Engineering

3. Systems of Systems

"aggregating otherwise independent systems to achieve an

emergent behavior that is not evident in the individual systems"

• Highly networked, or “net centric.” System components to be

o adaptive,

o able to self-discover, and

o utilize other components and component interfaces

• Greatly increased number of stakeholders across the enterprise,

• Complexity of the interfaces to be designed and managed.

• Requires a coordinating body to evolve the system architecture

4. Technology – used in the system itself

“Advances in technology enable systems with new capabilities –

previously unattainable purposes – but may also enable systems

engineers to develop systems that accomplish previously attainable

purposes in new, more efficient ways.”

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Systems and their Nature

16 Future of Systems Engineering

4. Technology – used in the system itself

• Increasing computation power and information storage

• Increased miniaturization, including nanotechnologies

• Increased use of biotechnology

• Increased connectivity and interoperability

• Integrated process technology within the system

5. Embedded Software and information processing

• Control systems: now more digital software-controlled

• Information technology systems

o components that are increasingly decentralized and

o viewed as services provided to a larger system or systems.

• Relative proportion of software to hardware is increasing

exponentially

• Adopting open source software

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Systems and their Nature

17 Future of Systems Engineering

6. Role of Humans – as part of the system

• systems will exhibit greater autonomy, requiring less direct human

direction or intervention

• as the purpose, scope, and complexity of systems increase, human

decision making capabilities will remain within the scope of the

overall system

7. Legacy System Composition

• replacement costs are forcing systems to be modified and

updated beyond their expected life expectancy

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Systems and their Nature

Vision 2020

• Systems will exhibit extensive interconnectedness.

• Local systems are giving way to regional systems.

• Challenged by the ability of new and legacy systems to

join the encompassing system of systems.

• Designed for continuous adaptation, which will

stimulate greater use of off-the-shelf components

• Systems of the future will continue to exhibit the

characteristics from present trends

18 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Systems and their Nature

Vision 2020

• System architecture will be

more than the technical

architecture of the system.

Will include:

– markets,

– customers,

– technology insertion,

– product development and

deployment, and

– the needs of the enterprise

into an integrated

framework.

• Architectural design, will

include greater clarity of

architectural approaches,

potentially

– based on a set of emerging

systems engineering pattern

languages and pattern

structures.

• automation of these

approaches via

development, maturing,

and continual evolution of

languages (such as

SysML™), tools and

methods

19 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Systems and their Nature

Vision 2020

• Technology

– Virtual devices with multiple

sensory inputs.

– Human/system interfaces to

become highly sophisticated

and complex.

• integration of genetic

engineering, micro-

/nanotechnologies,

biotechnology, and

neurotechnologies

– Dramatic new capabilities,

resulting in a broad range of

new products.

• Automation of complex

products and processes via

artificial intelligence, virtual

reality, adaptive systems,

sensors for condition

monitoring, robotics, and

other technologies

– Embedded intelligence:

– Challenge: Allowing

humans to complement

system intelligence with

human intelligence,

20 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Global Systems Engineering

Environment

Current State and Trends: The present-day solution-building

environment

• integrated product and process development where developers

consider all life-cycle elements at the earliest stages

• major commercial and government organizations have recognized the

importance and value of systems engineering.

• International collaboration is visible in the areas of standards and

identifying and measuring the maturity of systems engineering

processes

• Geographically distributed, multi-disciplinary teams working in

collaborative environments are becoming the norm.

21 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Global Systems Engineering

Environment

Negative trends

– No agreed set of unified principles and models to support

systems engineering use over a wide range of domains

• No set of consistent terminology and definitions

– Lack of consistency in the education of systems engineers

– Do not consistently address and integrate factors other than

hardware and software in a balanced fashion.

• fail to recognize the roles of people in systems

• fail to recognize facilities, procedures, processes and even

naturally occurring entities may be significant parts of

systems

22 Future of Systems Engineering

Core challenge: identify and deliver value to every

stakeholder.

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Global Systems Engineering

Environment

Vision 2020: The solution-building environment of

the future

• Interoperability among systems engineering practices.

• Collaborative tools and virtual collaborative environments

that feature sophisticated capabilities combined with

simplicity in the user interface.

– Tools will span a broader range of applications and

support people-centric interfaces that provide an

environment that addresses structural, social, technical,

and cultural differences in order to compress or bridge

collaboration distance between all involved

stakeholders.

23 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Global Systems Engineering

Environment

Vision 2020:

• Systems Engineering capabilities will be created to support the

adaptation of system engineering methodology to the agile and robust

operations of extended enterprises and businesses of all sizes.

– Advanced systems theory application

– Increased use of analytical methods and tools

– Advances in engineering education with an emphasis on

interdisciplinary integration

– Improved use/integration of engineering specialties

– Improved understanding of psychology, languages and culture

– Improved shared understanding of systems engineering concepts

among all stakeholders

• Improved usability of standards with increased harmonization of

engineering, project management and business processes.

24 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Systems Engineering Processes

– The Good

• Process descriptions - evolving

• Standards - created

• Best practice and maturity – codified

and modeled

– The Bad

• Perception of burdensome,

heavyweight efforts, leading to

unjustified cost and time overheads.

• Application of systems engineering

in small and medium-scale

enterprises, where the majority of

engineering is conducted, remains

weak.

• Adoption is further impeded by a

lack of lean/agile process sets and

life cycle concepts.

– The Ugly

• Major need for a coherent systems

engineering processes that can be

applied across multi-party teams

• The lack of a set of lean/agile

principles that could

– remove tasks that do not provide

added-value and

– provide adaptability across a

diversity of organizational

structures.

25 Future of Systems Engineering

Current State: Maturity and formalism of systems engineering processes

Difficult to engineer systems using

sequential, requirements-

predicated models of practice.

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Systems Engineering Processes

Vision 2020:

• Fully support concurrently engineered systems

– Allow continuous technology insertion in order to accommodate

the rapid acceleration of technological change.

– Enable future systems to take advantage of emerging

technologies by effectively integrating these technologies with

legacy systems and with complementary technological

advances.

– Success criteria will likely include the

• Ability of a system to interoperate with other evolving

systems, or

• Its resilience in accommodating new technology or interfaces

26 Future of Systems Engineering

Core challenge: learning to deal with accelerating changes in both

user needs and external environments.

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Systems Engineering Processes

Vision 2020:

• Focus on processes that produce value

– Intelligent engineering environments will

facilitate agile and adaptable processes.

– Better planning and control activities via

widespread workflow management tools.

– Improved decision-making support

– effective and efficient "logistics and

maintenance support infrastructure.”

27 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Systems Engineering Processes

Vision 2020:

• The state of the best practice in systems will be

characterized in the following manner:

– Continuous process improvement will be a widespread

practice.

– Increased coordination and harmonization of process

standards, including other disciplines and business

processes.

– Alignment with stakeholder values

– reduction of risk via process simulation and sensitivity

analysis

– robust strategy for integrating cognitive-human-socio-

technical concepts

28 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Models and Model-based Systems

Engineering

Current State:

• MBSE process and methods are generally practiced in

an ad hoc manner and not integrated into the overall

systems engineering processes,

– However, MBSE is expected to replace the

document-centric approach that has been practiced

by systems engineers in the past and to influence the

future practice of systems engineering by being fully

integrated into the definition of systems engineering

processes

• Systems modeling standards are beginning to emerge

that should have a significant impact on the application

and use of MBSE

29 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Models and Model-based Systems

Engineering

Vision 2020:

• The key characteristics of MBSE in the future will include:

– Domain-specific modeling languages and visualization that enable

the systems engineer to focus on modeling of the user domain

– Modeling standards based on a firm mathematical foundation that

support high fidelity simulation and real-world representations

– Extensive reuse of model libraries, taxonomies and design patterns

• virtual development environments, greatly reducing the need for

physical prototypes.

– Standards that support integration and management across a

distributed model repository

– Highly reliable and secure data exchange via published interfaces.

30 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Future Considerations

• Heavy reliance on IT as a Service (Cloud

Infrastructure)

• Model libraries, taxonomies and design

patterns will be only on existing solution

space -- how do you approach problems

with no existing solutions?

• What about the effect of inexpensive 3-D

printing on physical prototypes?

31 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Future Innovations

• Anything new that will be created, needs

to work within this vast interconnected

man-made environment.

• As Niels Bohr once said: “Prediction is

very difficult, especially if it’s about the

future.”

• Really we need a problem to arise before

you can solve it.

32 Future of Systems Engineering

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

How to Look to the Future

STEP 1: Look at existing trends.

STEP 2: Seek out "weak signals," or trends-to-be,

STEP 3: Extrapolate them into a vision of the

future.

STEP 4: Assemble a scenario,

STEP 5: Then "backcast" to see what has to

happen for us to get there.

33 Future of Systems Engineering

- "Industrial Research Looks Into The Future, And You Can Too!" from the November 2013 issue of Fast

Company magazine.

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

Future Systems Engineering

• Move out of the Management Realm into a Holistic

Solutions Realm

– Taking on “Large-Scale Global Problems”

• Integrate Design Thinking1 with Systems Thinking

1. Define the Problem

2. Create and Consider Many Options

3. Refine Selected Directions

3.5 Repeat (Optional)

4. Pick the Winner, Execute

• Solve the “emergence problem” with better Modeling

34 Future of Systems Engineering

1Fast Company - March 2006 - Design Thinking... What Is That?

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35 SE Overview

Mr. Paul Martin, ESEP

Senior Systems Engineer

[email protected]

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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014

References

• INCOSE Systems Engineering Vision 2020 (INCOSE-TP-2004-

004-02) September, 2007

• Why Systems Engineers are Essential to Your Organization by

John Thomas, INCOSE President

• Professor Steven L. Goldman’s course Great Scientific Ideas That

Changed the World

• Bar-Yam, Y., 2003; When Systems Engineering Fails---Toward

Complex Systems Engineering

• Professor Brian Collins talk on Systems Engineering from 2013

INCOSE International Symposium in Philadelphia PA.

• Fast Company - March 2006 - Design Thinking... What Is That?

36 Future of Systems Engineering