The futureof Money@ Club of Amsterdam,

24 April 2008

Frank, open, without fear

www.thefutureinstitute.nlSpanjaardstraat 1363025 TX Rotterdam

Justien Marseille [ and I am very nervous …]

Trend analyst, futurist. Into change, intopossible future. I do so all my life, butearning my living with it since 1993,when I graduated CommunicationScience at the University of Amsterdam.With the slogan: frank, open, withoutfear. [ Except for today that is.]

Money, the monetary system that counts ourwealth, will not survive the next decade.It's overrated, and there is no truth to it.It’s the domain of organisations, not of people.People are about emotions, ambitions, needs,wants and talents.People are about other people. About how weconnect to them. About our different roles indifferent networks. With different levels of interdependence innetworks that the values we experience in the given situation.

What am I doinghere?

X = Price Y = Days

a = attention(force * direction)

If X = 3Y10Y = Xa

Xa = -25

The statement I want to make is

the next scarcity is not in material or oil,but in truthful, mindful attention.The monetary system is a mess.It does not measure true values.

[Our beloved have more emotional rights on our time than outsiders.Most people love to help out where needed, but not on command. We workvoluntarily at a church or football team, but want money from our bosses.Ideas, thought of at no cost, sometimes are worth millions.]

Everybody is connectedto everythingFrom hunter-gatherers in territoriesto citizens in nation states,to employees in organisations,

To individuals in networks.

Sorry. The monetary system is a mess; it’s far too one-dimensional to fitthe multi-dimensional space we are entering.

The space and age of the connected individualsWe have entered the time and age of the economy of the people,Free Market Marxism.

Markets exploded from a couple of options to an endlessnumber of options. Micro economies in micro societies,with different roles and needs in different networks...

We are entering the time and age of the economy of the people,

…Free Market Marxism…

The economy of human energy: Attention

In the economy of people the principle of money isn’t workinganymore. The trust is gone; it doesn’t measure what it issupposed to measure.

Paradox of Sales Organisations want to sell productsIndivuduals want relationships with them

Attitudes to choice

40%

40%

20%

20%

0%

60%

80%

100%

There isnotenoughchoice

5 to 7

4

1 to 3

Therecurrentlymore choicethan I need

clothing fo

r yourse

lf

washing machines

savings a

ccount

gas & electr

ic

new car

home insurance

washing powder / liquid

mobile phone

Bron: Changing Lives/nVision 2003

We are at the end of scarcity. Markets exploded from a couple ofoptions to an endless series of options. And consumers havebecome fed up with all the goods the market has stuffed theirhomes with. Scarcity is coming to an end. Research indicates that

in most categories there is too much choice. Credit Crisis?We are struggling in the dark age of exuberant choice. The age inwhich the wellness of luxury reverses into a feeling of shame aboutthe consequences of extravagance. “We have passed the point

where the surplus of choice turned into market inertia.

Towards the end of scarcity

We are struggling with the paradox of sales.On the one hand, impersonal organisations wanting to conquer markets, and sell stuff. On theother hand, consumers in search of relationships and experience. Due to total transparency as wellas total connection between people we should prepare ourselves and our organisations for a newway of thinking.

We have to prepare for a paradigm shift from ownership to user-ship and nurture-ship. Not sell things but share things.

It is already happening, sharing spare beds or couches on CouchSurfing,

or a Gucci handbag at the ‘hire everything’ site Zilok. The future is not aboutwhat we bought, but about what we are able to share.

The future of Money

New OilAttention* will become the

*attention =Knowledge, loyalty, time, mindfulness, effort, ideas, solution

Again: people are not about money; they are about pride, fear, lust, passion,happiness. Not about money, not about markets. Maslov’s food, water,security and warmth are already accomplished. What we are looking for nowis companionship, self-esteem. Self-actualisation. Were beyond the monetaryeconomy. It killed itself, like Schumpeter predicted.

The next economy is about the search for the point of optimal MarginalUtility. For both parties a true price given the situation. *As described in thetruth machine.

We should ask ourselves what will be the new oil be, the new gold?

And maybe the answer is as simple as attention.

Market Marxism

Valuable will be the true and mindful attention forcontributions made by highly involved peers. With attentionfor problems that ear it or need to be solved. Or, in the caseof the music industry: attention for the millions of freeaccessible songs, more than I will ever be able to listen tofreely. And while we are just getting used to the idea of theLong Tail. The theory that taught us that the emphasis onshort-term selling and success not always brings the best forthe long term, it is already time to start thinking about thenext step. About how the critical masses collect themselves asswarms around new products or ideas. This will change themarket-place from an arena to a nursery. [@perenijsje]

The market of tomorrow is about earning the attention of groups ofindividuals, gathering in networks. With different roles and differentlevels of involvement in different networks.[*because @perenijsje deserves it.]

End-user driven paying methods like tipit, boober and zopa arechanging the system. From organisations in control to swarminggroups of individuals, networks.

Markets like flash mobs...

2005 2007 2010 2012 2030

From hunting… Monopolisation

Short termTransaction

Hierarchy/ControlFacts/Aggression

CareerLarge organisations

Decision skillsRecognition

Money

...to farming MobilisationLong termRelation

Network/Cooperation Intuïtion/Consensus

Development Smaller organisations

FeelingsBroad orienting

Free time

[Only those things or initiatives that earn and get attention will make it tomaturity. This may lead to a new economic system, with less waste. Less costs,measuring the goods, the gifts to society. Something I like to name, for the timebeing: Market Marxism, from the people, for the people. No time, money oreffort wasted on aggressive penetration strategies. Saving loads of energy, moneyand effort, just by not fighting for market shares.]

Think of it as a cradle-to-cradle market. This is a strange idea in the now,in the masculine market where organisations are fighting for marketshare.

But a logical option in a more feminine society.There is reason to believe that the decline of the role of money is accelerated by the drift from a

hunting culture to a farming culture: Western society is rapidly changing its focus from masculinehunting values to more feminine nursing and farming values.

This leads to a change from monopolisation to mobilisation of knowledge of materials. Power isshifting from hierarchies to networks. Status is changing from having to sharing.

[Strangely enough, this change has almost nothing to do with women, but everythingto do with the ageing population and the characteristics of the network generation.]

Network generation 9/11isn’t into money, they’re intoattention, acknowledgement

Amongst the young, the group categorized asbeing individually idealistichas grown to 37%,

only 48% is still materialistic

Source: Motivaction

This 9/11 generation, or Einstein generation or generation Y

isn't into money. They are into sharing. They are

sharing those things that are easily shared, on the basis ofpersonal characteristics and talents. Exactly matched to what issearched, valued on personal values, with those who share yourbeliefs. As simple as possible, but not simpler than that*. Andeverything they want, wish or think is brought together by web2.0 or 3.0 or 4.0 whatever you want to call it.* Vrij naar Keesie’s Einsteingeneratie

Source: Enders Game,1977

The future of Money

scarcity?What’s the next

So if it is not money, the next question iswhat will be? A glimpse of this is alreadygiven in Enders Game, a beautiful novel byScot Card, written in 1977. Another one inThe Truth Machine. And in Lietaers ‘TheFuture of money’.and of course, Kelly’srules for the new economy, Heertjes Echteeconomy…

Trackable, traceable, analizable.Soon to be predictable. Source: Micha Mekes

These sign fiction novels have come to lifenow that our lives are trackable andtraceable. Soon to be predictable. The nexteconomy will not be the economy of money,but it will be the economy of traces,reliabilities, references and intentions.The economy of paying forward systems,earning backwards systems.The overdraft invested by its loyal vulnerablecreators will be paid backwards.

Who will we trust with our most vulnerable possessions?Reputation, intention, ideas

The future of Money

In the next economy we will carve our reputations, our ideas and ourintentions like the banks carved the coins in ages of gold.

[ The age we left behind 50 years ago, with Bretton Woods.]

From this point of view, future of money is about who we will trust withour vulnerable possessions. Our reputation, our intentions, our talents.

Privacy, the knowledge over our history (and therefore our future) willchange from privacy to privilege. Individuals will give privileges tosubscribers on occasions, instead of thousands of non-dedicatedorganisations nosying in emotional (and therefore expensive) weakspots.

[ At first we will use mobile devices to do so. But within decades our grandchildren willdo so trough an implanted chip, our own very personal Big Sister…]

Source: Second Life, Summer 2006.

“Something within me,” the guardian of my credibility, protector of my

reputation. Something that provides and secures my chosen privacy in the

different networks that I belong to. Guard over the privileges I extend to

my peers, the people we must trust. My smart wallet. Something that helps

me, not competes with me..

[ The future of money is not in money, but in theintentions reflected by our reputation, guarded byour Big Sister, caring over all our assets.

Big Sister is evolving the mobile smart wallet ]

This smart wallet will of course hold some pocketmoney, for those occasions when we want tostay unknown: on the bus, buying sweets orcigarettes. But it will give full access tothose who provide us with our future,our safe haven, our home.

The smart wallet will count loyalties, measuringthe intentions by revealing insights.

The carved gold of the past will be replaced by the carved intention toshare and nurture talents, needs, savings and resources. On the basis ofthe assumption that people are intentionally good. With a measurementsystem that counts backwards, for more than a one-dimensional bankaccount.

[And then somewhere around 2030, we will stop paying tax to monopolizinggovernments and migrate our goods to Venus. And money is not the thing overthere. Then we will trust our personal Big Sister to nuture our lives. It will keeptrack of our withdrawals from natural resources, our contributions to the network.It will provide us with a backward-paying reward system. Living on the revenues ofthe nursing ideas or helping the neighbours.]

The Money of the future will be complex system based on overall valuecounting on the basis of mobilising individual talents and knowledgeinstead of monopolising materials, knowledge and ideas. Adjusted to theindividual value complexity.

[ The future of money is bound to be over.]

Due to social demographical change and technologyconnecting and tracking people. It will be set aside as just

one of the ways to reward an effort. Because aneffort for one, may be an honour tosomeone else, somewhere else. With a millions tomillion of connected people, knowledge and skills to share.The future of money is the privilege over my honest time,effort, merits, my network my ideas and my loyalty.The future of money is the future of curved intentions.

This presentation is dedicated to all the peopleand organisations who made it possible,

Rabobank Nederland.Het Eerste Kabinet van de Vertraagde

Vooruitgang, Arnold Heertje, Martijn Aslander,Circe van Bergen,

De Vas Diaz Keukentafel. All the InspiringTwitterazzi, The Next Web, Lifehacking

Acedemy. Unconferance The future of money.Hallo©, Unconference Health 2.0

A publication on this subject will shortly beavailable and will be launched at a symposium.

With still 60 places left. Arnold Heertje is askedto talk about Echte Economie, Martijn Aslanderwill talk about network dynamics. There will besupervised think tables. There is a price tag to it.

But then you’re also a member of the openfuture.

Frank, Open, Without fear.

www.thefutureinstitute.nlSpanjaardstraat 1363025 TX Rotterdam

[ The recent mass success of Apple has nothing to do with

the product itself, but everything with the peer groupswe want to belong to, the real value is already declining, unless they…]