the financial crisis in numbers
DESCRIPTION
A selection of graphs illustrating the crisis.TRANSCRIPT
The crisis in figures (OECD & other sources)
The OECD area goes into recession at the end of 2008
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 2/38
The fall in GDP gathers speed in early 2009in most countries
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 3/38
… partly driven by the decline in gross fixed investment
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 4/38
Monetary policy rates are very close to zero in most major OECD countries at the end of 2008
Note: The dark line represents the main policy rate of the central banks. The light line plots the overnight rate.Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Japan, Datastream, ECB.
Main Policy and Overnight rates
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse5/38
Unconventional measures have led to significant expansion of central banks’ balance sheets
Size of central banks’ balance sheetsSource: Datastream
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 6/38
Budget balances will deteriorate markedly in all OECD member countries except Iceland in 2009 & 2010
Budget balances (as % of GDP)
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 7/38
Unemployment is rising sharply
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 8/38
Unemployment rises steeply in recessionsand may not recover to previous levels
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970M1 1975M1 1980M1 1985M1 1990M1 1995M1 2000M1 2005M1
UNITED STATES
26 years
3 years7 months
5 years5 months
9 years
3 years3 months
4 years9 months
8 years4 years
13 months
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 9/38
Unemployment rises steeply in recessionsand may not recover to previous levels
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970M1 1975M1 1980M1 1985M1 1990M1 1995M1 2000M1 2005M1
SPAIN
24 years
9 years
3 years 6 years
9 years
3 years4 months
5 years8 months
2 years
4 years
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse10/38
During recessions, Research & Development expenditures drop more severely than GDP
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 11/38
Industrial production continues to plungein most OECD countries Industrial Production
12-month rate of change
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 12/38
Housing starts collapsed or slowed dramatically
Index 2005=100, Seasonally adjusted
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 13/38
Leading Indicators signal continued slowdownfor some economies…
85
90
95
100
105
110
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
USA
85
90
95
100
105
110
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Germany
85
90
95
100
105
110
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Japan
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Russia
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 14/38
… but a possible trough for others by mid-2009
85
90
95
100
105
110
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
China
85
90
95
100
105
110
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
United Kingdom
85
90
95
100
105
110
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
France
85
90
95
100
105
110
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Italy
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 15/38
OECD Business Cycle Clock IUS and Japan continue to slow down
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 16/38
OECD Business Cycle Clock II Recession in France and Italy may start easing in mid-2009
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 17/38
US households starting to feel more optimisticabout their standard of living…
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 18/38
… and their well-being
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 19/38
US consumer spending stabilises in Spring 2009after falling for a year
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 20/38
Business and consumer confidence risingbut still a long way to go
Confidence IndicatorsLong term average = 100
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 21/38
Inflation rates stable or lower thanks to falling energy prices
Consumer prices, 12-month rate of change
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 22/38
Unit labour costs still rising in fourth quarter of 2008in all OECD countries except Korea
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
%
Quarterly Unit Labour Costs Percentage change on the previous quarter (trend-cycle data)
Total Economy
Q3 2008 Q4 2008
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 23/38
China’s stock market rebounds first
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 24/38
US real estate prices back to pre-2003 levelsafter peaking in 2006
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 25/38
UK real estates start to pick upand are still higher than historical levels
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 26/38
Stock market volatility reverting to historical levelsafter Lehman Brothers collapse sparks unprecedented spike
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 27/38
Spread on short-term interest rates soars to record levels then eases
US TED Spread (LIBOR 3-month rate minus 3-month T-bill rate)(Source: Bloomberg)
15 Sept, 2008 Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 28/38
Securitisation, a driver of the crisis,on the retreat since first quarter of 2008…
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 29/38
…partly due to lower mortgage securitisation
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 30/38
The exponential growth in outstanding Credit Default Swaps suddenly stopped in mid-2008…
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Dec.04 Jun.05 Dec.05 Jun.06 Dec.06 Jun.07 Dec.07 Jun.08 Dec.08
Bil
lio
ns
of
US
do
lla
rs
Credit Default Swaps, notional amounts outstanding
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse31/38
…and US commercial paper funding is contracting
US commercial paper outstanding, billions USD(Source: Federal Reserve)
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 32/38
The price of international shipments of raw materials rebounds after hitting an all-time low
Baltic Dry Index(Source: Bloomberg)
5 Dec 2008
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 33/38
Yen appreciates by 20% against the dollar in 4 months to 17 December 2008 then loses ground
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 34/38
Euro depreciates 20% against the dollar from July 2008 to end October 2008, then strengthens
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse35/38
Collapse of merchandise exports in fourth quarter of 2008
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 36/38
Collapse of merchandise imports in fourth quarter of 2008
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 37/38
The fall in total merchandise trade eases offTotal merchandise trade, US$ billion, seasonally adjusted
www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 38/38