6 September 2015 1

THE DESPERATE QUEST FOR HUMANITY By Linda Lavender and Robin Barnett 06 September 2015

In 2012, NATO’s Civil Military Fusion Centre produced an open source report on the 2012 Syrian Humanitarian Crises.

The findings at the time were considered alarming. Soon after the report release, the Syrian death toll reached 37,000.

Nearly three years later, current conservative estimates place the death toll at 240,000 Syrians including 12,000

children. In 2012, the Syrian conflict was by all accounts a tragedy of epic proportions. Today there is no measure to

the psychological and economic impact of this humanitarian disaster. According to Antonio Guterres, the head of the

United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the European Union faces a “defining moment” regarding the continent’s

worst displacement crisis since World War II. Current statistics show nearly twelve million displaced persons with over

7.6 million still residing in Syria, reports World Vision – a stark and drastic change from the 355,000 refugees reported

by UNHCR in October 2012. The following report provides updated open source information on the Syrian

displacement crisis and considers the impact upon the European continent and affected NATO Nations.

Syria’s Human Tragedy

According to UNHCR’s Guterres, the refugee crisis requires a “massive common effort” to overcome Europe’s currently

ineffective and fragmented approach. Desperation is so palpable that in 2015 alone more than 300,000 Syrian

refugees have risked their lives to cross the Mediterranean with over 2,600 individual attempts ending in death. Since

2012, the refugee crisis has expanded considerably and is no longer confined to countries sharing immediate borders

with the beleaguered Syrian country (see Table 1).

Table 1: Syrian Refugee Populations: 2012 v. 2015 Country October 2012 September 2015 Delta

Austria N/A 10,000 expected

Bulgaria (NATO) N/A Approx. 15,000

Brazil N/A Approx. 1,740

Canada N/A 1,300 but committed to taking in 10,000 Syrians and Iraqis

Egypt N/A 133,862

Germany (NATO) N/A 6,000 (as of 5 Sept)

Greece (NATO) N/A Approx. 239,000; *Nearly 5,000 arrive each day

Hungry (NATO) N/A Approx. 140,000

Iraq 41,955 250,000 +595%

Jordan 105,737 630,000 +596%

Lebanon 99,977 1,113,941 +1,114%

Sweden (NATO) N/A Approx. 30,000

Turkey (NATO) 101,834 1,938,999 +1,904%

United Kingdom N/A 5,000

United States Approx. 1,500 since 2011

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6 September 2015 2

For example, Turkey’s growing number of Syrian refugees fleeing across the border is overwhelming urban host

communities and creating new cultural tensions, according to Mercy Corps. However, according to Selin Ünal, a

spokesperson for UNHCR, “This isn’t just about Turkey or Syria anymore. This problem will affect the entire world.

There is something historic going on here”.

Greece is likely to agree. On 04 September, the Greek Island

of Lesbos saw tensions explode when approximately 200

refugees clashed with authorities as they attempted to board

illegally a vessel headed for the mainland, reports Reuters.

This is in part due to the 13,000 refugees who have made

their way to the island in recent days – an island whose usual

Greek population is 86,000. On the same day, refugees on the

Greek island of Kos were attacked with citizens wielding bats

and shouting, “Go back to your countries”. Greece’s recent

financial woes have only helped to exacerbate tensions

between the almost four million unemployed Greeks and

refugees, reports Al Jazeera.

Standoffs between refugees and Hungarian police have

become a focus of the international community, according to

The Guardian. UNHCR reports that more than 2,000 refugees

are crossing into Hungary from Serbia each day. As of 06

September, refugees are reaching Germany at the rate of 100

per hour, according to The Telegraph.

There is no question that the European community is in the

midst of a refugee crisis, says the UN, and encourages a

common strategy to replace European “piecemeal” efforts to

date, reports BBC. The UN went further recommending that individual European Union countries must accept up to

200,000 refugees. Europe’s Syrian Asylum applications continue to balloon (See Figure 1). Thirty-seven European

countries received 138,016 Asylum applications in 2014 alone, reported UNHCR. However, from April 2011 through

July 2015, 348,540 applicants have been submitted – a staggering number.

Humanitarian Aid Efforts

By 2012, the Assad regime restricted humanitarian assistance to its citizens. A 2013 September UN report

documented the systematic targeting of hospitals and ambulances by regime forces. Patients suffered torture, medics

executed, and Red Crescent volunteers targeted. At the time, The Washington Post reported that the Syrian

government restricted entry to critical areas, denied cross-border assistance and held a tight monopoly for the

distribution of aid through the capital of Damascus. A UN Security Council Resolution (2139) passed in February 2014

called all parties to the Syrian conflict to permit humanitarian access and pointed to the government’s singular role in

blocking aid, reports the New York Times (NYT).

Unfortunately, change does not come easily. In 2015, humanitarian access to populations in need remains restricted

due to shifting frontlines, administrative and bureaucratic barriers and violence along access routes, according to the

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA). Further, there are approximately 7.6

million internally displaced persons located in Syria with an estimated 4.8 million in hard to access areas, reports

World Vision. The success, or failure, of humanitarian assistance is driven by funding and competes with many other

crises. In 2012, total funding requested for the Syrian Crisis, which included the Syrian Response Plan, and the Syrian

Figure 1

Source: See additional charts - UNHCR

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Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan was only 70 percent funded of the over USD 830 million requested. As of 2015,

total funding requested for the Syrian Crisis, has reached a dismal 37 percent of the USD 7.4 billion requested. The

UN reports financial needs of USD 7.4 billion in meeting current humanitarian needs from the conflict although relief

efforts1 have expanded since 2012.

Unprecedented Human Migration

By 2012, assistance efforts were localised to Syria and surrounding countries. Iraq, Jordan and Turkey created refugee

camps to shelter refugees. In 2012, Turkey oversaw eight refugee camps along the 566 mile shared border with Syria.

Jordanian authorities were hesitant to erect refugee camps, but authorities eventually stood up camps as Syrian

refugees could no longer be absorbed into Jordanian border communities. Jordan opened the Zaatari refugee camp

in July 2012. Lebanon, already home to 100,000 refugees provided no official camps at the time. Refugee families

fleeing to Lebanon established makeshift camps or found

shelter in abandoned buildings. In 2012, Syrian refugees

lacked the legal means to attain employment in Lebanon

and Jordan thereby worsening humanitarian need. Iraq,

established the Domiz refugee camp in the Kurdish

region. Built to shelter 25,000 refugees, the camp quickly

became overcrowded. By 2014, the population had

grown to double the capacity, reports Global Post. As is

usually the case with mass migration, the lack of clean

water, poor sanitation, and over-crowding bred diseases

like cholera and polio. UN agencies and international

relief agencies sought to engage refugee communities

with emergency care and relief.

Fast forward to 2015, Syrian humanitarian space needed

to assist displaced persons remains severely limited.

Uninterrupted violence and conflict from government

forces, opposition groups and the Islamic State of Iraq

have limited humanitarian efforts. According to the

International Red Cross (IRC), Lebanon a country of 4

million has received over 1.2 million refugees. The IRC’s Fabrizio Carboni reports that there are now 400,000 children

in Lebanon but only 100,000 receive education. Refugees are restricted from working, yet food vouchers have

decreased from USD 27 per person down to USD 13.5. In Jordan, the Zaatari refugee camp is now the country’s fourth

largest city with 80,000 inhabitants. The camp boasts shops and coffee cafes, and approximately eighty children are

born within the camp each day, according to the Telegraph. By 2014, Iraq added seven additional refugee camps

primarily in the Kurdish region, reports UNHCR. However, in June 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq in the Levant (ISIS)

1 2012: Food and Agriculture Organisations (FAO); Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHC); UN Development Programme (UNDP); UN Department of

Safety and Security (UNDSS); UN Population Fund (UNFPA); UN Commission on Human Rights (UNCHR); UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF); UN Mine Action Service

(UNMAS); UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA); World Food Programme (WFP); World Health Organisations (WHO); UN

Office Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA)

2015: Chaldean Assyrian International (KADER); MEDAIR; Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR); Oxfam; Pour une Syrie Libre

; Premiere Urgence (PU); Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS) ;SEMA Insani Ve Tibbi Yardim Dernegi (SEMA); Syrian Islamic Front (SIF); Solidatires; SRN; SSSD;

Terres des Hommes Italia (TdH – IT); TOS – Refugees; UN Resident Coordinators Office; UN Development Programme (UNDP); UN Department of Safety and

Security (UNDSS); UN Population Fund (UNFPA); UN Habitat; UN Commission on Human Rights (UNCHR); UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF); UN Relief and Works Agency

for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA); Various other recipients; World Food Programme (WFP)

Figure 2: Refugee Migration Routes

Source: Bloomberg

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took control of the city of Mosul sparking a secondary

displacement in Iraq, according to the European Union. Turkey

is currently working to open two additional camps. To make

matters worse, UN agencies have reduced food assistance

because of other competing global emergencies within Iraq,

Yemen, Nepal, and Ebola on the African continent.

Currently, thousands of refugees seek to travel to Europe since

the conflict in Syrian shows no signs of ceasefires or conclusion,

reports Business Insider (Figure 3). Europe is an attractive

option for refugees attempting to apply for asylum and refugee

states (Figure 4 below). In theory, a resettlement home in

Europe offers the opportunity for employment, education and

new beginnings. Resettlement is not an option in Gulf countries

were the population of migrant workers exceeds the native

populations, except in the case of Saudi Arabia and Oman. To

date, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, nor Saudi Arabia have accepted refugees. However, while these Gulf Countries do not

offer asylum, some countries such as Kuwait provide humanitarian funding. Regardless, it appears that in 2015,

current refugees realise that if hope is to be found at all, Europe is the best option.

Syrians are now the largest refugee population in the world according to UNHCR. As the Syrian people continue to flee

to Europe for safety and a potential opportunity to start again, the European community must address the tough

questions even those that challenge Western politics, reports the Telegraph. Balance must be sought among the

“Left” who champion the newcomers, and the “Right” who seek to protect the indigenous life and culture enjoyed by

Europeans for centuries.

Paul Mason of The Guardian asserts that the European Union

must revisit its broken asylum system and adopt a more realistic

policy. According to Mason, the current migration crisis “may

prove too big for Europe to handle”. The anticipated influx of

migrants will place a strain on EU institutions. The potential

addition of “hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers, given

permission to remain in continent where there is stagnation and

mass unemployment” is a real concern. According to Catherine

L. Mann, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and

Development’s Chief Economist, “Europe is at the centre of

weakness in the global economy”. The Wharton School recently

forecasted growth in the Eurozone to be just 1.4 percent in

2015. While it is an improvement over the low 0.7 percent for

2014, it is well below what Europe should be achieving.

Additionally, unemployment in Europe, with the exception of the

United Kingdom, is in double digits without a drop expected until 2016. These factors, combined with the stressors of

a mass refugee crisis (and the related costs) could very well foster instability within EU countries.

Next Steps: An Uncertain Path Forward

According to United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister David Cameron, the UK is the second largest bilateral donor in the

world to Syrian refugee camps and continues to take refugees. Despite this, Prime Minister stated that the long-term

solution is not simply about taking people, but requires a comprehensive solution that includes a new government in

Figure 4

Figure 3

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Libya and dealing with the problems in Syria, report RT. Cameron further asserted that those responsible for this crisis

are “President Assad in Syria and the butchers of ISIL and the criminal gangs that are running this terrible trade in

people”, reports The Independent.

Member of Parliament George Osborne suggests that the refugee crisis must be dealt with at “the source” - inferring

a move toward more military measures in the region. There has been some discussion of airstrikes carried out by the

Royal Air Force (RAF) against ISIS, but British Defence Select Committee Chair Julian Lewis cautioned that it was

impossible to intervene in Syria without involuntarily helping the Assad regime regain footing. In August, Russian

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggested US cooperation with the Assad government in combatting Islamic State

forces, reports Reuters. The US has continued to call for a peaceful transfer of power from Assad to a newly elected

government. Meanwhile, Russia has continued to support the Assad government in Syria. Russia’s Vladimir Putin

confirmed on 05 September that Russia is providing serious training and logistical support to the Syrian Army,

according to Business Insider. Putin signalled interest in creating “some kind of international coalition to fight terrorism

and extremism”.

While ceasefires have largely been touted as an interim solution, there is concern that ceasefires are “part of the

regime’s military strategy”, said Noah Bonsey of the International Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst on Syria. “When the

regime has reached these agreements – generally on terms favourable to it – it is then free to re-deploy its forces

elsewhere.” A ceasefire in Syria would potentially help to stem the tide of refugees flooding Europe. However, without

incremental “freeze zones” which may help bring calm to area of the country and allows the flow of humanitarian aid,

it is unlikely that the haemorrhaging of Syrian refugees will slow any time soon.

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