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The Cooling, Snowy Winters

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"If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties. Sir Francis Bacon

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Trend = -2.26 F/20 years or -1.13F/decade

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Still Colder Winters Ahead? Cold PDO cold favoring more La Ninas hold temperatures at bay Warm AMO favors blocking which make winter cold in Eurasia, North America. When the AMO turns cold (2020?), it will favor more general cold like the 1960s/1970s. The solar entering the a Dalton like Minimum would accelerate cooling High latitude (2007-2010) volcanoes enhance high latitude blocking (Oman 2004)

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Last winter the driver was in the Pacific

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1917/18 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

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1917/18 Winter Anomalies

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WeatherBELL Winter Forecast (11/27/13)

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2013/14 Winter Anomalies 2013/14 Winter Coldest Ranking Ironwood, Michigan 1 st Marquette, Michigan 1 st Eau Claire, Wisconsin 1 st Rhinelander, Wisconsin 1 st Oshkosh, Wisconsin 1 st Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin 1 st Munising, Michigan 2 nd Green Bay, Wisconsin 2 nd Wausau, Wisconsin 2 nd Alpena, Michigan 2 nd Houghton Lake, Michigan 2 nd Duluth, Minnesota 2 nd International Falls, Minnesota 2 nd Chicago, Illinois 3 rd Rockford, Illinois 3 rd Mason City, Iowa 3 rd Wheaton, Minnesota 3 rd St. Cloud, Minnesota 4 th Waterloo, Iowa 4 th Flint Michigan 5 th Chicago had its coldest December to March on record - since 1872, Detroit its snowiest since 1880

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2007 UCS Mount Washington Summit The UNH UCS had a special workshop in the late summer of 2007 for state government and industry promising a dire future for the winter sports and maple sugar industry due to warming.

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Across almost all of North America, 2007/08 was the best, or one of the best seasons ever for those who enjoy winter sports. Many areas from Alaska across Canada to the West, Midwest and New England reported all-time record snow. Michael Berry, President of the National Ski Areas Association told the AP that This could very well be the record year .

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Ric Werme, Concord

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NOAA

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Snowmaggedon Mid-Atlantic

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2009/10 All-Time Record Snowfall City Snowfall (in) Previous Record (Year) Baltimore79.962.5" (1995-1996) Washington (Dulles International Airport)72.861.9" (1995-1996) Washington (Reagan National Airport)55.954.4" (1898-1899) Wilmington, Del.66.755.9" (1995-1996) Philadelphia71.665.5" (1995-1996) Atlantic City, N.J.49.946.9" (1966-1967)

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New York City Snow 20

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#1 #3 #2 #4 #5 #6

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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Favors El Nino Favors La Ninas Favors NAO/AO Favors +NAO/AO

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Suns Scary Slumber

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Cycle 5 Cycle 24 Cliverd 2007 106, 212 Year Cycles Combine

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Paralleling Cycle 5 (1798)

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Niagara Falls 1911 and 2014

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The New York Times reports today that Great Lakes are now abruptly on the rise, a development that has startled scientists

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Early 1800s 2008/09/10/11/12/13 Dalton Minimum

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Lower geomagnetic means -NAO/AO Increased cosmic rays mean more low clouds (higher albedo) Lower solar flux means lower UV (6- 8%) which means expanded polar vortex More amplified patterns and higher persistence

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Solar TSI Ocean PDO+AMO US Annual Temps Both sun and oceans suggest cooling

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Urgent and unprecedented environmental and social changes challenge scientists to define a new social contractin exchange for public funding. Jane Lubchenco, 1999 AAAS President (later NOAA Administrator)