the big picture - s&p 500 index - carax big picture - s&p 500 index monthly ichimoku monthly...

11 February 2016 1

THE BIG PICTURE - S&P 500 Index

Long-Term Views according to a chartist analysis and Elliott Waves Page 2

Medium-Term View with 200 and 50-day Moving Averages -

Monthly Bollinger Bands, MACD and RSI Page 3

Monthly Ichimoku Chart -

Weekly Bollinger Bands, MACD and RSI Page 4

Weekly Ichimoku Chart -

Point & Figure chart, 1%x3 Box Size Page 5

Point & Figure chart, 0.5%x3 Box Size -

Daily TD Combo & Sequential Page 6

Weekly TD Combo & Sequential -

Monthly TD TD Combo & Sequential -

Summary of the Long-Term View on S&P 500 index Complex range forming since early 2015. This looks like a “wave 4”, which means that the long-term bull trend is not in jeopardy.

The index was trendless during the full year 2015. However, it failed to start a sustained correction as the August selloff was short lived. I favour a continuation of a “wave 4” consolidation during the first part of the year 2016. This could take the shape of a widening or a symmetrical triangle. In the event of a breakout above the 2135-area (May and July highs), the next upside target would be around 2250. On the downside, notice that the index bounced off an important support zone located at 1815 in January.

Technical Analysis Cyril BAUDRILLART [email protected] +33.1.70.91.67.58


Long-term technical view

2

• Major upside breakout in late 2013 • Wave 4 is underway • Key support at 1815 successfully

tested.

11 February 2016

Very complex range forming since late 2014. October 2014 lows around 1820 is an important support zone..

Medium-term technical view


Monthly Ichimoku

Monthly Bollinger Bands & MACD, RSI

3

Monthly MACD are bearish

11 February 2016

LT trend is still Bullish Lower monthly Bollinger Bands now reached.


Weekly Bollinger Bands & MACD, RSI

Weekly Ichimoku

4

Weekly Ichimoku is now bearish.

11 February 2016

Weekly MACD are bearish

Stabilising around weekly lower Band.

No new lows on weekly RSI


Point & Figure chart - 1%x3 Point & Figure chart - 0.5%x3

5

Triple-bottom sell signal but still holding above the LT ascending 45° support line.

Last signal is a double-bottom sell. Next downside targets are at 1810 and 1775.

11 February 2016


6 11 February 2016

Daily TD Combo & Sequential

Monthly TD Combo & Sequential

The DeMark Indicators are a registered trademark of DeMark Analytics, LLC. Please note that all the content shown are my personal views and based on my own interpretation of the DeMark Indicators using the DeMark Service for Bloomberg. Please visit www.demark.com for more information.

Weekly TD Prop Up Exhaustion at 2144.

Weekly TD Combo & Sequential

11 February 2016 7

THE BIG PICTURE - Euro STOXX 50 Index







Point & Figure chart, 1.5%x3 Box Size Page 11

Point & Figure chart, 0.75%x3 Box Size -





Summary of the Long-Term View on Euro STOXX 50

The index continues to trade inside a major symmetrical triangle forming since 2000. The upper part of this triangle around 3700 should be challenged again in 2016.

The index hit a major resistance line forming since 2000 in April 2015 but failed to break above it. A new wave of consolidation is underway. In the long term, I favour an upside breakout above this line which now trades around 3700 and corresponds to the upper part of a major 15-year symmetrical triangle. To confirm this view, I would prefer to see the index holding above 3000 or at least 2800-2725.

THE BIG PICTURE – Euro STOXX 50 Index

8

The 2800 area has now been reached.

Key LT resistance line hit but not surpassed.



11 February 2016


9

Monthly cloud surpassed in 2014 for first time since 2008. LT trend turned bullish last year.

Monthly Ichimoku


11 February 2016



10

Weekly Ichimoku is now bearish


Weekly Ichimoku

11 February 2016


Now trading below lower weekly Band. Oversold.

Weekly RSI back around 30


11

Point & Figure chart – 1.5%x3 Point & Figure chart - 0.75%x3

11 February 2016

Declining 45° line now resistance. Next downside target is at 2556.

Outlook is bearish with next downside target at 2554.


12



11 February 2016



Monthly Perfected TD Setup 9 buy expected in late February. Close to TSDT support line at 2539?

11 February 2016 13

THE BIG PICTURE - US 10-Year Govt Bond Yields







Point & Figure chart, 0.06x3 Box Size Page 17

Point & Figure chart, 0.03x3 Box Size -





Summary of the Long-Term View on US 10-year Bond Yields The trend reversal of the year 2015 was not confirmed.

US bond yields made a significant bullish reversal in 2015. However, given the steep downside acceleration registered in early 2016, it seems that the yields failed to confirm last year’s trend reversal. As a reminder, my previous preferred long-term scenario was further rise on yields towards 3-3.30% in 2016. The 2.50% area is becoming key resistance whilst key supports are found at 1.65% (2015 low) then 1.38%, the low of the year 2012.

THE BIG PICTURE – US 10-Year Govt Bond Yields

14

Back 2 standard deviations below LT regression line.

11 February 2016

Amazing flight to safety this week. The low of February 2015 is now close.



LT regression line

+2 standard dev

-2 standard dev

The 2.50% area is major resistance.


15 11 February 2016

Monthly middle Bollinger Band remains resistance.

Monthly Ichimoku cloud remains a key resistance zone.

Monthly Ichimoku


Monthly MACD sell signal


16 11 February 2016

Weekly Ichimoku turning bearish again.


Weekly Ichimoku

MACD sell signal

Now trading significantly below the lower weekly Bollinger band. Oversold.


17 11 February 2016

Point & Figure chart – 0.06x3 Point & Figure chart - 0.03x3

Downside target at 1.74% hit this week. Another horizontal target stands at 1.20%.

Downside targets at 1.80-1.74% hit this week. Another horizontal target stands at 1.38%.


18 11 February 2016





Weekly TDST support line at 1.89% broken this week.

11 February 2016 19

THE BIG PICTURE - German 10-Year Govt Bond Yields













Summary of the Long-Term View on German 10-year Bond Yields Start of a mean-reversal move in Q2 2015 but a major bullish trend reversal seems unlikely.

After an exceptional decline towards 0%, German bond yields made a major reversal during the spring 2015. However, reversing this major downtrend will probably take a long time, especially as QE should help to keep yields at a low level for a long time, probably below 1%.

THE BIG PICTURE – German 10-Year Govt Bond Yields

20

Amazing decline, especially on a semi-log scale!

11 February 2016

Yields accelerated downwards after breaking below Fibonacci support at 0.43%. The 0.30% area has now been reached.



LT regression line

+2 standard dev

-2 standard dev


21 11 February 2016

Monthly middle Bollinger Band remains resistance.

LT trend is bearish

Monthly Ichimoku


Monthly MACD are bullish


22 11 February 2016

Weekly Ichimoku still bearish.


Weekly Ichimoku

Breakdown after squeeze of the weekly Bollinger Bands

Weekly MACD are bearish.


23 11 February 2016


New triple-bottom sell signal with downside target at 0.30%.

Last signal is a double-bottom sell with downside target as low as 0,05%.


24 11 February 2016




Daily TDST resistance line at 0.70% is a key resistance.


11 February 2016 25

THE BIG PICTURE – EUR USD













Summary of the Long-Term View on the Euro Dollar Further decline seems likely towards 1.00 in the medium term.

The primary trend turned bearish in late 2014 and stayed bearish in 2015. The rate is unlikely to make a significant bullish reversal in early 2016 and may even go to parity or even below (0.96). The 1.05 area is an important intermediate support zone. On the upside, the 1.17-1.18 area is becoming a key resistance.


26

Major ascending support line around 1.05 holding so far.



11 February 2016

1.10 resistance broken!!.


27

Monthly MACD close to give a buy signal

Monthly Ichimoku is bearish.

Monthly Ichimoku


11 February 2016


28

Weekly Ichimoku is bearish.


Weekly Ichimoku

11 February 2016

Upside breakout above the weekly middle Bollinger Band.

Weekly MACD buy signal.


29 11 February 2016


New double-top buy signal. Upside target for a relief rally at 1.18?

Last signal is a triple-bottom sell signal


30




11 February 2016


11 February 2016 31

THE BIG PICTURE – USD JPY







Point & Figure chart, 1x3 Box Size Page 35






Summary of the Long-Term View on Dollar Yen As long as the rate holds above 116, further rise favoured towards the 140 area.

The dollar yen traded sideways during most of the year 2015, taking a breather after a very strong rise in 2013 and 2014. However, no major trend reversal has been observed whilst 116 is becoming a key support zone. As long as this support holds, preference for further rise towards between 139 and 144.60.


32

Key support at 116 broken after failure to move back above 200-day MA.

The rate can go higher in the long term, potentially towards 128 even 140 / 150.



11 February 2016


33

LT trend turned bullish in 2014

Monthly Ichimoku


11 February 2016

Monthly RSI showing a bearish divergence



34

Weekly cloud broken for first time since 2012.End of the bull trend?

Weekly Bollinger Bands & MACD

Weekly Ichimoku

11 February 2016



35

First double-bottom sell signal in four years. Downside target available at 107.

11 February 2016

Point & Figure chart – 1x3 Point & Figure chart - 0.5x3

New triple-bottom sell signal with downside target at 112, now reached.


36



11 February 2016



11 February 2016 37

THE BIG PICTURE - Cable (GBP USD)













Summary of the Long-Term View on British Pound against Dollar The rate should continue to decline in 2016 towards 1.40 maybe even 1.35.

Formation of a very complex range since 2009 with numerous traps. Major supports are found in the 1.40-1.35 area. Further decline towards these levels could be seen in 2016. The 1.58-1.59 area is becoming a key resistance zone.

38

Very complex chart. No clear trend over the past 25 years.

11 February 2016




Fibonacci resistance at 1.4660 was not broken last week.

39 11 February 2016

Monthly middle Bollinger Band is key LT resistance.

Monthly Ichimoku is bearish.

Monthly Ichimoku

Monthly Bollinger Bands & MACD



40 11 February 2016

Moving back below the weekly Ichimoku cloud.

Weekly Bollinger Bands & MACD

Weekly Ichimoku



41 11 February 2016

Downside target at 1.46 reached.

Downside target at 1.45 reached. Next is 1.415 then 1.405.



42 11 February 2016





Monthly Perfected Setup 9 buy in April


11 February 2016 43

THE BIG PICTURE - Gold








Point & Figure chart, 8x3 Box Size -





Summary of the Long-Term View on Gold Technical outlook still weak after four declining years

Gold remained weak in 2015, the fourth consecutive bearish year. The next downside target available on my Point & Figure charts is at 992 whilst next major Fibonacci support is found at 884. At this stage, it is difficult to anticipate the start of a significant bullish reversal.

On the upside, the 1200 area is becoming a major resistance zone to surpass in H1 2016 in order to improve the index’s mid-term outlook.


44

Gold long-term trend has turned bearish.

11 February 2016

Strongest bear market rally since February 2015. Back near the upper part of its downtrend channel.




45 11 February 2016

Monthly Ichimoku is bearish

Monthly Ichimoku


Monthly middle Bollinger band challenged.

Monthly MACD buy signal in February?.


46 11 February 2016

First upside breakout attempt above the upper part of the weekly Ichimoku cloud since late 2012.


Weekly Ichimoku

Upside breakout above the middle weekly band is bullish.

Weekly MACD are bullish


47 11 February 2016

Next downside targets 992 / 928 / 864 Second consecutive double-top buy signal with an upside target at 1200, reached this week.

Point & Figure chart - 16x3 Point & Figure chart - 8x3


48 11 February 2016




Monthly TDST support line at 1112 broken


New Perfected Setup 9 buy expected in late December. Monthly Perfected Setup 9 buy in December

Upside breakout above TDST resistance line.

11 February 2016 49

THE BIG PICTURE - Brent








Point & Figure chart, 1x3 Box Size -





Summary of the Long-Term View on Brent Back below 2000 highs

Since early 2015, I have always highlighted that the 35USD area was a key support zone which should provide support in the event of further slide. As this level was broken in early 2016, the long-term bullish Elliott wave count is not valid anymore. In other words, the pullback below the high of 2000 jeopardised the wave count previously favoured. It does not mean that now is a good time to sell but just that Brent is entering in unchartered territories like Natural Gas in 2009. Next potential long-term supports are found at 27 whilst the 31 area is another possible support (hit in early January).


50

Bullish reaction on a LT Fibonacci support at 27.

11 February 2016



Relief rally within a bear trend underway. Strongest recovery since August.


51 11 February 2016

Monthly Ichimoku is bearish

Monthly Ichimoku



Monthly RSI starting to build a bullish divergence


52 11 February 2016

Weekly Ichimoku is bearish


Weekly Ichimoku



53 11 February 2016

Point & Figure chart – 2x3 Point & Figure chart - 1x3

Still bearish. Last signal is a double-bottom sell signal but no clear downside target available.


54 11 February 2016






Technical Analysis Equity Sales Cyril BAUDRILLART [email protected] +33.1.70.91.67.58

Methodology

All technical indicators used in this publication are based on historical prices broadcasted by Bloomberg. Several types of indicators are used in this report such as Bollinger Bands, Oscillators (RSI, MACD), Point & Figure charts, Ichimoku and other technical analysis tools. More details on how to interpret and use these tools are available upon request. Market timing indicators developed by Tom DeMark are also used in this report. The DeMark Indicators are a registered trademark of DeMark Analytics, LLC. Please note that all the content shown are my personal views and based on my own interpretation of the DeMark Indicators using the DeMark Service for Bloomberg. Please visit www.demark.com for more information.

Disclaimer

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55 11 February 2016

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