the bagel effect - icon group ltd · the bagel effect how digitization impacts work and jobs –the...

THE BAGEL EFFECT –

THE IMPACT OF DIGITIZATION ON

WORK AND JOBSERIC S. PELLETIER

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1. PREDICTING DIGITIZATION

Refined analysis – Oxford study

Bottleneck analysis

Value-added chain deconstruction

Data and infrastructure

Identifying hot skills

The Bagel Effect

HOW DIGITIZATION IMPACTS WORK AND JOBS – THE

BAGEL EFFECT

2. DEALING WITH DIGITIZATION

Legacy analysis

Focus on system-thinking and

collaboration

The culture war – command &

control versus The networked

organization

3. SUPPORTING THE ADAPTATION

PROCESS

Simulation engine versus old-fashioned

spreadsheets

The Human Performance Equation

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PREDICTING DIGITIZATION01

The required number of

people for the jobs that are

needed to achieve the

strategic goals efficiently

and effectively

The right composition of

workforce, in terms of

structure and purpose, in –

and outsourcing, as well as

the appropriate diversity mixSource: Ray Kurzweil; The Singularity is real

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THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO

COMPUTERISATION?

BY CARL BENEDIKT FREY AND MICHAEL A. OSBORNE, SEPTEMBER 17, 2013

47% of US jobs affected

702 detailed occupations

BRUEGEL THINK-TANK - 2014

51% of German jobs affected

56% of Italian jobs affected

ING-DIBA – 2015

58% of German jobs affected

CONSENSUS THAT DIGITIZATION WILL AFFECT JOBS

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METHODOLOGY TO PREDICT THE IMPACT OF DIGITIZATION

Source: THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION?

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COLLAPSE OF THE MIDDLE

Source: THE FUTURE OF

EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE

ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION?

The distribution of Bureau of labor statistics (BLS) 2010 occupational employment over the probability of computerisation

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COLLAPSE OF THE MIDDLE – AUTO INDUSTRY

3%

69%

11%

17%

0%5%

69%

8%

17%

0%

8%

61%

8%

22%

0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Low cost Generalist Japanese generalist Premium Other

Vo

lum

e

Collapse of the middle - auto market share in Western Europe

2002 2009 2014





and effectively





the appropriate diversity mix

Availability of people with the

right capabilities at the right

locations, ensuring critical

mass, to meet changing

requirements

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KINGSFORD AND THE VALUE-ADDED CHAIN

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As data availability increases,

new skills are required in

areas including:

Clinical trials – life

sciences

Driver patterns – auto

Customer GPS – Taxi

Buying patterns – retail

Web searches – hedge

funds

Companies about infrastructure

are growing very quickly – they

use content but don’t create it:

DATA AND INFRASTRUCTURE

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IDENTIFYING HOT SKILLS

HR analytics allow for the

rational, market-driven,

identification of hot skills:

Heat maps in employee

surveys

Pay versus inflation reviews

Job scarcity analysis

Job description evolution

Emergence of new jobs 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Russia

Sweden

Germany

France

Netherlands

UK

US

Mexico

Brazil

Singapore

India

China

IT AND ENGINEERING JOBS SCARCITY

Engineeringjobs

ITjobs

Source: Hay Group Internal Data and Research

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HOW UBER KILLED DANNY DEVITO BUT NOT JUDD HIRSCH

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THE BAGEL EFFECT

COGNITIVE

JOBS

TRANSACTIONAL

JOBS

SYSTEMS /

SOLUTIONS

LEADING

PEOPLE

Quick evolution of technical /

functional skills

Focus on systems / solutions –

collaboration

Providing more autonomy to

people whilst accelerating decision

cycle time

Middle-management won’t die, but

its nature will evolve considerably

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DEALING WITH DIGITIZATION02

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STRATEGIC CAPITAL BASES AND THEIR METRICS

FOOTPRINT

(MANUFACTURING

CAPCITY

DISTRIBUTION)

FINANCIAL

CAPITAL

BASE

CLIENTS PEOPLE

ROCE

ROE

CUSTOMER

RETENTION

YIELD

MANAGEMENT

?





and effectively










requirements

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Hiring cycle

Promotion paths

Internal Mobility

External

mobility

Retirement age

VISCOSITY

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New technologies

Bottlenecks

Competitive landscape

Regulations

TOPOGRAPHY

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LAPLACE’S DEMON – LEGACY ANALYSIS

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Understand the potential evolutions

of the shape of the workforce on the

basis of simple demand / activity

scenarios

Early identification of potential skills

shortage

Identify and test workforce “skills”

and “shape” management levers

through the motion matrix

Management through:

Attrition

Training

Career pathing

WORKFORCE LEGACY ANALYSIS

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2005 – announcements on A380 delivery delays due to

wiring – two years

Earnings shortfall of €4.8 billion

2006 – CEO Noel Forgeard resigns

2011 – Boeing 787 Dreamliner deliveries start – three

years late and $2.5 billion over budget

New supplier systems integration/outsourcing was more

complex than expected

Jan 2014 – Announcement of further delays in service

entry to H2 2015 and development cost overruns of +$1

billion

Feb 2015 – CEO Pierre Beaudoin steps down

AIRCRAFT DEVELOPMENT WOES AND COLLABORATION

23

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FROM EXCEL TO SIMULATION ENGINES

“After subtracting the old rate from

the new rate, the spreadsheet divided

by their sum instead of their average,

as the modeler had intended. This

error likely had the effect of muting

volatility by a factor of two and of

lowering the VaR . . .”

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HOW WE DO IT: RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE – PLANNING

TOMORROW’S WORKFORCE

Client Issue The client is a national rail infrastructure company that needs to deliver electrification of whole rail network in next 15 years and a “Digital Railway” in next 10+ years, using mobile phone technology to replace traditional signaling.

These programmes have been significantly delayed because of lack of resources in past and the firm needs to be assured it has the workforce to deliver in the future.

What We Did Worked with leadership teams of electrification and Digital Railway to define a strategic workforce planning model for next 15 years

Modelled the effect of different workforce strategies (recruitment, development, talent management) and ways of doing the work to ensure right workforce to deliver these programmes.

Project Results

First properly validated strategic workforce plan for electrification programme ever.

Strategic resourcing analysis for the Digital Railway programme – enabling delivery of strategic goal.

“This scenario modelling of the Digital Railway is essential to successful programme resourcing and achieving the 10 year rollout target”.

Engineering Director

Business as

Usual

Automation creating an

efficiency of 25% in demand





supply

GAP between Supply and

Demand with 25% efficiency

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HUMAN PERFORMANCE EQUATION

EMPLOYEES

HIGHER

CORPORATE

PERFORMANCE

ALIGNMENT AGILITYTEAM &

CLIMATE

ROLES /

COMPETENCIESEFFECTIVENESS REWARDSx x x x x

+

when properly aligned

with corporate

objectives...

...with the right

attitude and the

right tools...

...when in jobs that

match their

capabilities ...

...if teamed up

and led

effectively...

... willing to

adapt…

CREATE DISCRETIONARY

EFFORT

LOWER

PEOPLE

COSTS

...and paid

smartly

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Understanding your legacy workforce (where you are now) and the degree of

strategic freedom this gives you

Dealing with hot skills

Constantly identifying where new skills are needed

Using simulation and scenario planning to predict your workforce needs in a

fast-moving environment

Creating a strong employee value proposition that balances training, long-term

employment and access to external skills

Placing a premium on system thinking and collaboration

RESPONDING TO THE BAGEL EFFECT

THE 5 RIGHTS

RIGHT SIZEThe required number of




and effectively

RIGHT SHAPE






Clarity about the

capabilities that are

necessary and pivotal to

bridge current gaps and

meet future goals

RIGHT SKILLS





requirements RIGHT SITE

RIGHT SPEND

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IF YOU’D LIKE TO KNOW MORE ABOUT HOW WE HELP ORGANIZATIONS

PLAN THEIR WORKFORCE, GET IN TOUCH:

GET IN TOUCH

Eric Pelletier

Global head of Strategic

Workforce Planning

Hay Group

E: [email protected]

Paul Lambert

Head of Strategic Workforce

Planning, UK & Ireland

Hay Group

E: [email protected]

the bagel effect - icon group ltd · the bagel effect how digitization impacts work and jobs –the...

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