TheAdapting to Rising Tides

Project

San Francisco Bay Conservationand Development Commission

Photo: Ingrid Taylor

The goal of the ART project is to increase the preparedness and resilience of Bay Area communities to sea level rise and other climate change impacts while protecting ecosystem and community services.

ART Goal

Adapting to Rising Tides

• How will sea level rise and storm events affect the future of Bay Area communities, infrastructure, ecosystems and economy?

• What approaches can we pursue, both locally and regionally, to assess these challenges, and reduce or manage these risks?

ART Objectives

• Create an integrative (cross-sector and cross-jurisdiction) adaptation planning framework that can be applied in other areas of the Bay region

• Develop, test, and refine adaptation tools and processes to help the region address climate change

• Understand how adaptation planning can be scaled to different geographic extents – local, regional, state, federal

ART Planning Process

ART Assessment Frames

Scope & Organize

Project Area

Asset Selection

Assess

Existing Conditions

Vulnerabilities and Risk

Plan

Consequences

Strategy Selection

Action Prioritization

Implement& Monitor

Resilience Goals

Evaluation Criteria

Society and Equity Economy

Environment Governance

• Identify Partners• Review Climate Impacts• Select Planning Area and Assets

Step 1 - Scope & Organize

ART Partners

ABAGAlameda County

Public WorksCommunity DevelopmentPublic Health DepartmentTransportation CommissionBARTBay InstituteBay TrailCA Coastal ConservancyCapitol Corridor JPACity of AlamedaCity of EmeryvilleCity of HaywardCity of OaklandCity of San LeandroCity of Union City

East Bay Dischargers AuthorityEast Bay Municipal Utility DistrictEast Bay Regional Park DistrictH.A.R.D.Pacific InstitutePG&EPort of OaklandSan Francisco Estuary InstituteSan Francisco Estuary Partnership

ART Working Collaborations

Active and engaged Working Group plus a Communication and a Technical Subcommittee

Working Group Members Provide:• Data• Judgment• Feedback

Tools of Collaboration:• Small meetings• Working group meetings• On-line survey• Phone interviews• Document review

ART Climate Impacts

• More frequent floods• Floods that last longer• Permanent inundation• Shoreline erosion and overtopping• Elevated groundwater and salinity

ART Project Area

• 66.7 square miles in Alameda county, including six cities, one unincorporated community, and numerous special districts

• A diversity of land uses, key regional infrastructure, natural resources and shoreline communities

• Local interest and capacity

ART Asset Categories

AirportCommunity land use, facilities, servicesContaminated landsEnergy, pipelines and telecomHazardous material sitesGround transportationParks and recreationNatural shorelinesSeaportStormwaterStructural shorelinesWastewater

Impacts, Vulnerability & Risk

Step 2 - Assess

Assessment Process

Impacts Assessment

Assess Impacts

Local Climate Projections• Six future climate scenarios• Five potential climate impacts

Asset Inventory• Twelve asset categories• Metrics describing asset

specific characteristics• Existing Conditions and

Stressors Report

Summarizing the ART Impact Assessment:The Existing Conditions and Stressors Report

• Project introductionand background

• Climate change impacts under consideration

• Description of assets in each category

Existing Conditions

Assess Vulnerability

Vulnerability is the susceptibility of people, property, and resources to the negative impacts of climate change

• If exposed, would an asset be physically or functionally impaired?

• If compromised could it maintain primary function?

• Could primary function be restored quickly, easily or in a low-cost manner?

Assessing Vulnerability

• What is the magnitude of the expected consequences on:

Society and Equity Economy Environment Governance

Assessing Risk

• Data-driven desktop analysis

• Stakeholder survey and interviews

To help answer Vulnerability and Risk questions:

V&R Approach

• Exposure Analysis• Shoreline Study• Asset Evaluation• Park and Recreation Values• Socio-economic Evaluation• Equity Approach

Data-Driven Desktop Components

Used refined sea level rise and storm maps to determine potential asset exposure to:

Tidal inundation (i.e. daily high tide, MHHW)

Storm event flooding(100-year stillwater level)

Wind driven waves duringa 100-year storm event

Exposure Analysis

• Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI)

• Key Demographics Low-income population Institutionalized population Linguistically isolated Renter-occupied No vehicle

• Property values (Assessor)

• Building replacement values (HAZUS)

• Workplace/Employees (HAZUS)

Socio-Economic Evaluation

Stakeholder Survey and Interviews

• Physical and functional sensitivity

• Adaptive capacity

• Magnitude of consequence

• Equity considerations

Best Professional Judgment:

ART V&R Report

Vulnerability & Risk Assessment Report• Identifies the underlying causes and components

of vulnerability and risk

• Presents methods, data and findings of the assessment

www.adaptingtorisingtides.org

Vulnerability & Risk Profile Sheets

• Includes a Key Issue Statement

• Identifies timing of the vulnerability and scale of the consequences

• Classifies the vulnerabilitiesinto actionable categories

• Describes consequenceson people, the economy and ecosystem services

Communicating V&R

ART Classification

People

Physical Qualities

Ecosystem Services

Scale

Management Control Information

Timing

Vulnerability& Risk

Adaptation Response

Classification used to sort vulnerabilities and risks into actionable categories to support selection of adaptation strategies

Developed for four sectors incorporating all twelve asset categories: * Community Land Use * Utilities * Transportation * Shorelines *

ART Adaptation Response

ART Adaptation Response

Issue & Action – describes and classifies the vulnerability and identifies a proposed strategy

Effectiveness – identifies how the proposed action addresses the vulnerability

Implementation – the how, who and when necessary to implement the action

Taken together . . . Action + Effectiveness + Implementation = Adaptation Response

Highlight key issues in the ART project area

Adequate for certain types of vulnerabilities,e.g., systemic or policy issues

Provides a starting point for other vulnerabilities, e.g., specific or unique assets

Pinpoints the issue of scale – at the ART project scale some strategies are too general

ART Adaptation Response

• Complete the “Plan” Step of the process

• Develop a portfolio of planning process tools, materials, and lessons learned

• Continue shoreline park adaptation planning

• Partner with ABAG on multi-hazard shoreline resilience – initial focus on the Oakland International Airport and Bay Farm Island

ART Next Steps

Adapting to Rising Tides

Lindy Lowelindyl@bcdc.ca.gov415-352-3642

Wendy Goodfriendwendyg@bcdc.ca.gov415-352-3646

Visit the ART project at:

www.adaptingtorisingtides.org