thayer vietnam: the context for foreign policy and domestic politics

7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics

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Outline

Part I Foreign Policy ContextVietnamChina Rela9onsThe East Sea

Part II Domes9c Policy ContextGenera9onal ChangeRule of Law the Na9onal

AssemblyCons9tu9onal Reform


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Vietnam and Rising China

VietNam

Mature

Asymmery

Acknowledgement of China

preeminence

Acknowledgement of

Vietnams

autonomyAsymmetric Rela9ons


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I. Foreign Policy Context

diversify (da dang) and mul9lateralize (daphuong) economic rela9ons become a

reliable partner to all countries (11)

Coopera9on and Struggle ( 2003) Strategic Partnerships with Major Powers

Russia (2001), Japan (2006), India (2007), China(2008), South Korea (200), Spain (200), UnitedKingdom (2010), Germany (2011)


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VietnamChina Rela9ons

PartytoParty rela9ons codified (1) longterm, stable, futureorientated, goodneighborly and

allround coopera9ve rela9ons (March 1)

Comprehensive Coopera9on in the NewCentury (2000)Joint Steering Commiee (2006)

Strategic Partners (June 2008) Strategic Coopera9ve Partnership (200)


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Vietnams 3 Strategies

Relegate conten2ous issues totechnical working groups

Promote mul2lateral efforts

Selfreliance develop defensecapacity


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Longterm

Agreements

Joint Steering

Commiee

Highlevel

party visits

Highlevel

state visits

Economic

rela2ons

Defense 2es


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2005 April 1st security and defense consulta9ons 2005 October Agreement on joint naval patrols in

the Gulf of Tonkin

2006 November 2nd security and defenseconsulta9ons

2007 August Border Defense Coopera9on Agrm. 200 September 3rd security and defense

consulta9ons

2010 November 1st Strategic Defense SecurityDialogue


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11th Party Congress

Intensifying the na9onal defense andsecurity strength and power; maintaining

sociopoli9cal stability, independence,

sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, socialorder and security; preven9ng and foiling all

schemes and plots of hos9le forces;

comprehensively and effec9vely carrying out

external ac9vi9es and proac9vely taking partin interna9onal integra9on.


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11th Party Congress

Overall goals set forth for the country in thenext five years [201115] are: enhance

external ac9vi9es; firmly defend na9onal

independence, sovereignty and territorialintegrity; thus crea9ng a founda9on for the

na9on to become a modernoriented

industrialized country by 2020.


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Na9onal Mari9me Strategy to 2020(VCP Central Commiee 4th Plenum Jan 2007)


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Chinese Unilateral Fishing Ban

May-August - 2008-2009


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Submissions

to UnitedNa9ons

Commission

on Limits ofthe

Con9nental

Shelf (May200)


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The East Sea

Vietnamese swarmtac9cs

Unilateral fishingban 2010 Unpublicized

incidents YouTube

Cable cung incidents

200


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Interna9onalizing the South

China Sea Dispute 2010

ShangriLa Dialogue (June) 17th ASEAN Regional Forum (July) 2nd U.S.ASEAN Leaders Mee9ng (September) 1st ASEAN Defense Ministers Mee9ng Plus

(October)

East Asia Summit (November 2011)


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Vietnamese Responses to

Chinese Asser9veness

Official protests and public demonstra9ons Signaling through U.S. defense ac9vi9es

Special Envoys Livefiring exercise Force moderniza9on Visit by party Secretary General (Oct 2011)


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USS George Washington Aug 2010

USS John D. Stennis

April 200

USS Florida SSGN, Pacific

Command December 200

USS George H.W. Bush Aug 2010


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Naval Engagement Ac9vi9es

15

th

Anniversary of USVietnam Diploma9c Rela9onsUSS John S. McCain makes port call at Da Nang August 2010


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Force Moderniza9on

BPS 500 Pauk Missile

Boat

4 Gepardclass Guided Missile Frigates

12 Svetlyakclass Fast Aack

Craq

6 Kiloclass subs


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Coastal Defence

Extended Range

Ar9llery Muni9ons

BrahMos Cruise Missile ?

Bas9on An9Ship Missile


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Vietnams Three Nos

and Cam Ranh Bay

1. No military alliances2. No foreign military bases on Vietnamese

territory

3. No use of third countries to combatanother country


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II Domes9c Poli9cal Context

Patronage and power as the key byproduct of Vietnams na9onal party

congress process

Personality clashes, policy differencesand ideology

Leadership selec9on as a product ofsectoral (interest group) representa9on


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Full members

retainedAlternate members

promoted

New full members

Genera9onal Change on the VCP

Central Commiee 2011


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Sectoral Composi9on of the

Central Commiee 2011

%

38%

42%

11%

Senior Party

Central PartyState

Secondary/

Provincial

Armed Forces


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13

13

2

2

3

5

CC Members Holding Central Party

Posts N = 38Politburo

Central Commiee

Commissions

Party media

Mass Organisa9on

Secretariat

Inspec9on Commiee


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11

7

75

17

CC Members Holding Central

State Posts N = 47

Cabinet

Na9onal Assembly

Other central state

Mass Organisa9on

Deputy Minister


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5720

5

1

11

CC Members Holding Provincial

Posts N = 94

Party Secretary

Deputy Party Secretary

Other

Regional

District Party Secretary


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Secretary General

Prime Minister

Chair Na9onalAssemblyStanding

Commiee

PermanentSecretary Party

Secretariat

State President


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Growing Power of the Office of the

Prime Minister

StatePresident,SecretaryGeneral,PrimeMinister


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Proceedings broadcast on radio and television, vo9ng results made public,

full9me depu9es, Ministers grilled, legisla9on amended, two of the PrimeMinisters Cabinet nominees rejected, confidence vote, reviewed bauxite

contract with Chinese firm, highspeed rail rejected


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Nguyn Sinh Hng Chair

Amendments to

Cons9tu9on


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Conclusion

Era of party strong man long over Ins9tu9onal interests mi9gate against strong

party leader

State (Cabinet and Office of Prime Minister)has grown more powerful than party

Possible fric9on between prime minister andkey party elite and state president


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Euilibrium


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thayer vietnam: the context for foreign policy and domestic politics

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