thayer australia's strategic context

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    Strategic Context:

    Australia and the Region

    Professor Carl Thayer

    Senior Officer Operations Planning Course

    Defence Establishment Fairbairn

    February 26, 2007

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    Introduction

    Defending Australia

    Capacity to preserve territory from

    attackDefending Australias interests

    Strategic interests

    Security interests

    Prioritizing contending interests

    Resource constraints

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    Strategic Environment

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    Number of Conflicts, 1946-2003

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    Strategic Environment

    Four major forces

    1. Globalisation will intensify

    2. Demographic change

    3. International terrorism will persist

    4. Continued U.S. dominance

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    Globalisation

    New levels of world economic growth

    Deepening interdependence

    Emergence of middle class

    World labour market

    East Asia centre of world growth

    International institutions and states will

    come under challenge

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    Demographic Change

    Fall in population growth rates indeveloped countries and an aging oftheir populations

    Constraints on economic growth.

    Japan and Russia will be severelyaffected in this regard.

    Emergence of youth bulges in manyparts of the developing world

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    International Terrorism

    Transmutation of al Qaeda

    Global jihadism

    Politics of identity Challenge to state legitimacy

    Home grown terrorism

    Continuing conflict in Iraq and

    Afghanistan

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    Terrorist Attacks, 1982-2003

    Lethality

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    U.S. Dominance

    Until mid-century the United States will

    remain the most powerful state in all

    dimensions of national power

    Relative power of the U.S.will decline

    Rise of China and India

    Proliferation of nuclear weapons

    U.S. management of global forces will

    largely determine world and regional order

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    Threats to Vital Australian Interests

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    East Asia

    Shift in economic power to East Asia

    Rise of China and India

    Japan: more active role in the managementof global security

    Potential great power rivalry

    China-US

    China-Japan

    Diffusion of military technology

    East Asian regionalism

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    South Pacific

    Arc of instability

    Transnational security issues

    Weak and failing states

    Solomon Islands

    East Timor

    China-Taiwan rivalry

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    Australia and the Region

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    U.S. Alliance

    The alliance with the United Statesconfers major strategic, political andeconomic benefits on Australia. The

    defence relationship is a substantialforce multiplier for Australias defenceand intelligence capabilities including

    in relation to terrorism. Australias National Security: A Defence Update

    2005,13.

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    U.S. Alliance System

    Foundation of regional stability andsecurity

    Interoperability

    Further institutionalisation

    Intelligence/operations

    Technology transferBallistic missile defence

    Increased burden sharing by allies

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    Japan

    Largest trading partner

    Free Trade Agreement

    Tsunami relief operationsIraq security protection

    Trilateral Security Dialogue

    Bilateral defence co-operation

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    China

    Not an either or choice

    Australia promotes good management

    of China-US bilateral relationsMajor emerging market for Australia

    Chinas growing energy needs

    Australias comparative advantage

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    Indonesia

    Cooperation in border security

    Transnational crime: illegal drugs, people

    smuggling

    Cooperation in counter-terrorism

    Support for economic growth and

    democratic consolidation

    New Framework for Security Cooperation

    Disavow support for separatism

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    The Philippines

    Expansion of security relations

    Australian assistance

    Training

    Combined Exercises

    Maritime surveillance

    Counter-terrorism capability

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    Regionalism

    Australia promoted APEC (1989)

    Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum

    Australia a founding member of East AsianSummit (2005)

    Mahathirs objections

    Treaty of Amity and Cooperation - Cold Warrelic?

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    The Region and Australia

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    U.S. Alliance

    we bring an additional strength to our regionalrelations, which is our strong alliance with theUnited States.

    Alexander Downer, May 12, 2006

    Australia as a dependent ally

    Ballistic missile defence

    Howard Doctrine

    Pre-emption Deputy Sheriff

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    China

    Chinas growing strategic influence

    China as a centre of technological

    developmentStable markets, secure SLOCs

    China as major emerging market for

    Australia

    Chinas energy needs

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    China

    Concern about encirclement by U.S.-

    led alliance system

    Growing economic interdependence

    Taiwan Straits contingencies

    Increased defence cooperation

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    Chinas National Security Objectives

    Maintain domestic security; prevent

    separatism in Tibet and Xinjiang; and

    then recover control over Taiwan;Promote a stable regional security

    environment, especially along Chinas

    periphery, as the prerequisite foreconomic growth;

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    Chinas National Security Objectives

    Maintain high levels of economicgrowth to provide employment, raise

    income levels and prevent domesticdisorder;

    Restore and expand Chinas traditional

    political and diplomatic influence; and

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    Chinas National Security Objectives

    Promote a multi-polar international

    order to prevent encirclement orcontainment by the United States.

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    Indonesia

    Lowy Institute Poll

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    Indonesia

    Lowy Institute Poll 2005

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    Indonesia

    Lowy Institute Poll

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    Current Issues

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    Global

    ANZUS as a global alliance

    Australian partnership with NATO

    Iraq - the end game?WMD Proliferation

    Iran

    Failed and failing states

    Africa and Middle East

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    Regional

    Past alignment of Australianseconomic & security interests will

    diverge U.S. cornerstone of security

    China second largest trading partner

    Counter-terrorism

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    Regional

    WMD counter-proliferation

    Proliferation Security Initiative

    Cooperation to meet transnationalthreats

    Maritime security cooperation

    Humanitarian assistance and disasterrelief

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    North East Asia

    Increased Japanese defence capacity

    and increased independence from the

    US?

    Korean peninsula

    Taiwan

    Territorial disputes

    China-Japan and Japan-South Korea

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    South East Asia

    Separatism in Indonesia

    Cooperation with the Armed Forces of

    the PhilippinesFive Power Defence Arrangements

    Area defence

    Asymmetric threats

    Maritme surveillance

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    Indonesia

    Working out bilateral cooperation

    under the Framework for Security

    Cooperation:

    Defence, law enforcement, counter-

    terrorism, intelligence sharing, maritime

    and aviation security, WMD

    proliferation, emergency relief and

    people-to-people links

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    South Pacific

    Closer Defence Relationship withNew Zealand

    Pacific Island Forum - leadership role

    Nation-building - no exit strategy

    Solomon Islands

    Vanuatu, PNG

    Civil-Military relations

    PNG, Fiji

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    South Asia

    Indias increased economic andpolitical clout

    India-United States new framework fordefence relations

    Increased opportunities for securitycooperation with India

    Civilian nuclear industry Australian exports of uranium

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    Conclusion

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    Strategic Uncertainty

    Strategic shocks and discontinuities are

    difficult to anticipate

    Pandemic, state failure, catastrophic terrorist

    attack, military confrontation between major

    powers

    ADF will continue to be involved in broad

    spectrum from high-end war fighting tostabilisation operations and humanitarian

    assistance and disaster relief missions

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    The Long War

    Impact of Democrat control of Congress on

    lame duck US president and US strategy

    over next two years

    Will the Global War on Terrorism remain

    the central organising principal of US

    strategic policy?

    Possibility of Iraq syndrome

    How should Australia re-adjust its policies?