thailand...charoen pokphand nearly hold35% of cps all’s total shares outstanding, which could...

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Thailand See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Powered by the EFA Platform 6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products Charoen Pokphand Buy (Maintained) Target Price: THB38.50 Price: THB29.80 Kitchen Of The World Market Cap: USD6,434m Bloomberg Ticker: CPF TB We re-initiate coverage on Charoen Pokphand – Asia-Pacific’s leading agro-industrial and food conglomerate (with US and Europe subsidiaries) – with a BUY call and THB38.50 TP (29% upside). We view the recent weakening share price as an opportunity to buy, supported by: 1. The recovery of its shrimp business; 2. Synergy from the Bellisio acquisition; 3. Sustainable growth from CP ALL; 4. Current valuations that have both P/E and P/BV multiples below the firm’s 5-year average and its regional peers. Share Data Avg Daily Turnover (THB/USD) 855m/24.2m 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 17.3 - 33.3 Free Float (%) 47 Shares outstanding (m) 7,743 Estimated Return 29% Shareholders (%) Charoen Pokphand Group 38.1 Thai NVDR 10.2 State Street Corp 3.1 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 0.8 4.4 (9.2) 8.2 65.3 Relative (1.0) (0.2) (13.2) (0.1) 40.0 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Aquaculture division’s turnaround. Despite the fact that Charoen Pokphand Food’s (Charoen Pokphand) aquaculture wing accounts for only 14% of total revenue, it dragged overall operating performance in 2013-2015. This business was affected by the Early Mortality Syndrome (EMS) outbreak in Asia. After recently developing a new baby shrimp breed and adopting newer aqua farming techniques to alleviate the EMS outbreak domestically, local operations returned to the black and are likely to contribute >THB5bn (+12% YoY) to total gross profit in 2017F. We are optimistic about the future prospects of the aquaculture division, as Charoen Pokphand continues to apply the same best practices to its overseas subsidiaries. This would eventually boost this unit’s overall gross margins to levels seen before the EMS outbreak, which ought to support the company’s total margins, in our view. Acquisition of Bellisio Parent LLC (Bellisio) is the largest investment in five years. Charoen Pokphand acquired Bellisio, a leading US frozen food manufacturer and retailer, in December. The deal required up to 7% of its total assets (THB38bn), which would be funded by cash flow from operations and abundant cash on hand of >THB42.8bn as at 3Q16. This acquisition would not only boost Charoen’s 2017F revenue by THB21bn (4% of our FY17 estimate), but also provide a distribution network for its products to smoothly enter the US food market in the coming years. Sustainable increase of equity income from CP ALL (CPALL TB, BUY, TP: THB72.00). Charoen Pokphand holds nearly 35% of CP ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores in Thailand is also anticipated to grow FY17F earnings by 17%YoY. This is on the number of new stores planned (ie 700 new stores pa). It is also on the increasing proportion of high-margin merchandise sales, including ready-to-eat foods and exclusive products. BUY. We initiate coverage on this counter with a SOP-based TP of THB38.50 and a BUY recommendation, which offers 29% upside and dividend yields of ~3%. Not only are Charoen Pokphand’s core earnings growing at double-digit levels for 2017F-2018F, the current share price is still trading below its long- term multiples (Figures 9-10). Key risks that could affect its fundamentals include animal disease outbreaks such as EMS, avian influenza, swine influenza and viruses. Source: Company data, RHB Forecasts and Valuations Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total turnover (THBm) 426,039 421,355 468,056 512,860 530,614 Reported net profit (THBm) 10,562 11,059 15,685 15,499 17,253 Recurring net profit (THBm) 5,917 3,526 13,178 15,499 17,253 Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 (40.4) 273.8 17.6 11.3 Recurring EPS (THB) 0.76 0.46 1.70 2.00 2.23 DPS (THB) 0.83 1.11 1.01 1.00 1.11 Recurring P/E (x) 38.9 65.3 17.5 14.9 13.4 P/B (x) 2.04 1.95 1.82 1.72 1.62 P/CF (x) 9.9 13.4 10.2 11.7 9.4 Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 15.2 18.7 11.0 10.7 10.3 Return on average equity (%) 0.0 9.6 12.8 11.9 12.5 Net debt to equity (%) 95.5 123.1 136.7 132.6 126.1 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (1.9) 7.3 (1.0) 93 113 133 153 173 15 20 25 30 35 Charoen Pokphand (CPF TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Vol m Analyst Watcharaphol Chotchawroj +662 2862 9999 ext 2028 [email protected]

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Page 1: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Thailand

See important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Powered by the EFA Platform

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

Charoen Pokphand Buy (Maintained)

Target Price: THB38.50 Price: THB29.80

Kitchen Of The World Market Cap: USD6,434m Bloomberg Ticker: CPF TB

We re-initiate coverage on Charoen Pokphand – Asia-Pacific’s leading agro-industrial and food conglomerate (with US and Europe subsidiaries) – with a BUY call and THB38.50 TP (29% upside). We view the recent weakening share price as an opportunity to buy, supported by: 1. The recovery of its shrimp business; 2. Synergy from the Bellisio acquisition; 3. Sustainable growth from CP ALL; 4. Current valuations that have both P/E and P/BV multiples below the

firm’s 5-year average and its regional peers.

Share Data Avg Daily Turnover (THB/USD) 855m/24.2m 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 17.3 - 33.3 Free Float (%) 47 Shares outstanding (m) 7,743 Estimated Return 29% Shareholders (%) Charoen Pokphand Group 38.1 Thai NVDR 10.2 State Street Corp 3.1 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 0.8 4.4 (9.2) 8.2 65.3 Relative (1.0) (0.2) (13.2) (0.1) 40.0 Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Aquaculture division’s turnaround. Despite the fact that Charoen Pokphand Food’s (Charoen Pokphand) aquaculture wing accounts for only 14% of total revenue, it dragged overall operating performance in 2013-2015. This business was affected by the Early Mortality Syndrome (EMS) outbreak in Asia. After recently developing a new baby shrimp breed and adopting newer aqua farming techniques to alleviate the EMS outbreak domestically, local operations returned to the black and are likely to contribute >THB5bn (+12% YoY) to total gross profit in 2017F. We are optimistic about the future prospects of the aquaculture division, as Charoen Pokphand continues to apply the same best practices to its overseas subsidiaries. This would eventually boost this unit’s overall gross margins to levels seen before the EMS outbreak, which ought to support the company’s total margins, in our view. Acquisition of Bellisio Parent LLC (Bellisio) is the largest investment in five years. Charoen Pokphand acquired Bellisio, a leading US frozen food manufacturer and retailer, in December. The deal required up to 7% of its total assets (THB38bn), which would be funded by cash flow from operations and abundant cash on hand of >THB42.8bn as at 3Q16. This acquisition would not only boost Charoen’s 2017F revenue by THB21bn (4% of our FY17 estimate), but also provide a distribution network for its products to smoothly enter the US food market in the coming years. Sustainable increase of equity income from CP ALL (CPALL TB, BUY, TP: THB72.00). Charoen Pokphand holds nearly 35% of CP ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores in Thailand is also anticipated to grow FY17F earnings by 17%YoY. This is on the number of new stores planned (ie 700 new stores pa). It is also on the increasing proportion of high-margin merchandise sales, including ready-to-eat foods and exclusive products. BUY. We initiate coverage on this counter with a SOP-based TP of THB38.50 and a BUY recommendation, which offers 29% upside and dividend yields of ~3%. Not only are Charoen Pokphand’s core earnings growing at double-digit levels for 2017F-2018F, the current share price is still trading below its long-term multiples (Figures 9-10). Key risks that could affect its fundamentals include animal disease outbreaks such as EMS, avian influenza, swine influenza and viruses.

Source: Company data, RHB

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18FTotal turnover (THBm) 426,039 421,355 468,056 512,860 530,614Reported net profit (THBm) 10,562 11,059 15,685 15,499 17,253Recurring net profit (THBm) 5,917 3,526 13,178 15,499 17,253Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 (40.4) 273.8 17.6 11.3Recurring EPS (THB) 0.76 0.46 1.70 2.00 2.23DPS (THB) 0.83 1.11 1.01 1.00 1.11Recurring P/E (x) 38.9 65.3 17.5 14.9 13.4P/B (x) 2.04 1.95 1.82 1.72 1.62P/CF (x) 9.9 13.4 10.2 11.7 9.4Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.7EV/EBITDA (x) 15.2 18.7 11.0 10.7 10.3Return on average equity (%) 0.0 9.6 12.8 11.9 12.5Net debt to equity (%) 95.5 123.1 136.7 132.6 126.1Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (1.9) 7.3 (1.0)

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Charoen Pokphand (CPF TB)Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)

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Analyst Watcharaphol Chotchawroj +662 2862 9999 ext 2028 [email protected]

Page 2: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Financial Exhibits Financial model updated on: 2016-12-27.

Asia Thailand Consumer Non-cyclical Charoen Pokphand Bloomberg CPF TB Buy Valuation basis SOP Key drivers

i. CP ALL's share price movement, as Charoen Pokphand owns nearly 35% of CP ALL;

ii. Population growth; iii. Private consumption.

Key risks

i. Volatility of meat prices; ii. Animal diseases, which may affect demand for

the company’s products. Company Profile Charoen Pokphand is the leading agro-industrial and food conglomerate in the Asia-Pacific. The company operates in both livestock and aquaculture businesses. The vertically integrated businesses incorporate the manufacturing of animal feed, animal farming, and production of cooked meat.

Source: Company data, RHB

Financial summary Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18FRecurring EPS (THB) 0.76 0.46 1.70 2.00 2.23EPS (THB) 1.36 1.43 2.03 2.00 2.23DPS (THB) 0.83 1.11 1.01 1.00 1.11BVPS (THB) 14.6 15.3 16.3 17.3 18.4Weighted avg adjusted shares (m) 7,743 7,743 7,743 7,743 7,743

Valuation metrics Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18FRecurring P/E (x) 38.9 65.3 17.5 14.9 13.4P/E (x) 21.8 20.8 14.7 14.9 13.4P/B (x) 2.04 1.95 1.82 1.72 1.62FCF Yield (%) (1.1) (17.3) (15.2) (0.3) 1.7Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.7EV/EBITDA (x) 15.2 18.7 11.0 10.7 10.3EV/EBIT (x) 25.6 38.0 15.8 16.3 15.5

Income statement (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18FTotal turnover 426,039 421,355 468,056 512,860 530,614Gross profit 57,280 58,068 75,328 79,192 82,253EBITDA 24,433 22,686 41,891 43,092 44,830Depreciation and amortisation (9,965) (11,507) (12,900) (14,674) (15,108)Operating profit 14,468 11,179 28,991 28,418 29,722Net interest (8,903) (9,614) (9,718) (10,393) (10,480)Income from associates & JVs 4,869 5,221 7,192 8,233 9,519Exceptional income - net 4,644 7,533 2,507 0 0Pre-tax profit 17,879 20,028 30,712 28,349 30,852Taxation (3,649) (3,654) (8,474) (5,670) (6,170)Minority interests (3,668) (5,315) (6,553) (7,180) (7,429)Recurring net profit 5,917 3,526 13,178 15,499 17,253

Cash flow (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18FChange in working capital 2,465 (1,888) 2,549 (4,754) (1,798)Cash flow from operations 23,208 17,209 22,660 19,749 24,392Capex (25,720) (57,045) (57,612) (20,500) (20,500)Cash flow from investing activities (33,164) (51,868) (57,612) (20,500) (20,500)Proceeds from issue of shares (5,321) 0 0 0Dividends paid (6,417) (8,613) (7,842) (7,749) (8,626)Cash flow from financing activities 23,511 30,755 (5,052) 10,381 (6,288)Cash at beginning of period 19,457 39,320 44,234 12,704 28,004Net change in cash 13,555 (3,905) (40,004) 9,631 (2,395)Ending balance cash 33,012 35,415 4,230 22,335 25,609

Balance sheet (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18FTotal cash and equivalents 39,320 44,234 12,704 28,004 31,779Tangible fixed assets 124,461 149,599 172,575 178,703 184,339Intangible assets 65,414 85,813 107,550 107,247 107,003Total investments 63,181 76,682 76,682 76,682 76,682Total other assets 17,455 22,175 22,175 22,175 22,175Total assets 416,764 494,263 503,799 532,485 544,458Short-term debt 79,503 137,852 111,191 133,802 130,666Total long-term debt 116,425 120,299 149,751 145,270 150,745Other liabilities 13,087 13,948 13,948 13,948 13,948Total liabilities 252,798 320,538 322,231 343,169 346,515Shareholders' equity 112,670 118,408 126,250 134,000 142,626Minority interests 46,434 57,360 57,360 57,360 57,360Total equity 163,966 173,725 181,567 189,317 197,943Net debt 156,608 213,917 248,238 251,068 249,632Total liabilities & equity 416,764 494,263 503,799 532,485 544,458

Key metrics Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18FRevenue growth (%) 0.0 (1.1) 11.1 9.6 3.5Recurrent EPS growth (%) 0.0 (40.4) 273.8 17.6 11.3Gross margin (%) 13.4 13.8 16.1 15.4 15.5Operating EBITDA margin (%) 5.7 5.4 8.9 8.4 8.4Net profit margin (%) 2.5 2.6 3.4 3.0 3.3Dividend payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0Capex/sales (%) 6.0 13.5 12.3 4.0 3.9Interest cover (x) 1.63 1.16 2.98 2.73 2.84

Page 3: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

Investment Thesis BUY, with a THB38.50 TP. We re-initiate coverage on Charoen Pokphand with a BUY call and SOP-based TP of THB38.50. This implies FY17F P/E and P/BV valuations of 19.2x (+0.2SD) and 2.26x (+0.9SD) respectively. We view the weakening share price performance – due to softening broiler prices – as an opportunity to buy into the stock, with the following supporting factors:

i. The recovery of its aquaculture business, as it returns to profitability from being a loss-making entity;

ii. Synergy from the Bellisio acquisition, which could be a gateway for Charoen Pokphand to channel its existing products into North America;

iii. Continual improvements of CP ALL’s operating performance;

iv. Compelling valuations with trading multiples, ie P/E and P/BV, below its 5-year mean.

The recovery of the aquaculture business In 2009, an animal disease hit the farmed shrimp business. Known as EMS, it caused mortality rates of up to 90% within 30 days. By comparison, the average lifespan of farmed shrimp is 90 days.

The root of the illness was the Vibrio bacteria in the shrimp’s stomach, that makes it stop eating and release toxins in its body. It was first reported in China and, subsequently, spread to shrimp aquacultures in Vietnam (2010), Malaysia (2011) and Thailand (2012). This massive outbreak in South-East Asia caused tremendous losses among farmers in the region and a dramatic drop in the number of shrimp raised during the period.

During this period, Charoen Pokphand, which had shrimp processing and feed mill capacities of over 600,000 tonnes pa, failed to maintain its utilisation rate beyond the minimum breakeven level. This led to a sharp drop in 2013 GPMs of the company’s domestic aquaculture division.

Charoen Pokphand has recently adopted a new farming practice that sees the reduction in the number of shrimp per well, which is beneficial as it helps to reduce the risk of contagion. It has also developed a new species of baby shrimp that can effectively lead to a higher survival rate for these crustaceans and gain the confidence of local farmers.

Consequently, the company estimates its processing capacity and feed mill plant’s utilisation rate to be at around 50% this year and 55% in 2017, while we forecast Thailand’s total shrimp production should grow approximately 10% in 2017 to 320,000-330,000 tonnes. We believe that the sustained margins expansion of this division is likely to support Charoen Pokphand’s operating performance as well as share price in the medium term.

Figure 1: Gross margins breakdown by division

Source: Company data

Page 4: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Acquisition of Bellisio Charoen Pokphand acquired Bellisio, a leading US frozen food manufacturer and retailer in December. While the company is expected to pay approximately THB38bn for the acquisition, we believe that no raising of equity or debt is necessary, as management expects the transaction to be funded by adequate cash flow within the group.

Although the market might view this strategic move as an expensive step, we believe that Charoen Pokphand, in the long term, would then be able to successfully achieve its targets of globally expanding its distribution channel and increasing the proportion of its food business. The transaction should provide both a platform for Charoen Pokphand to enter the US, which is the largest single food market in the world. According to Euromonitor, in 2015, global packaged food sales amounted to USD2.2trn, of which the US made up 17%. Charoen Pokphand’s acquisition would act as a gateway for it to channel existing products into North America by leveraging on Bellisio’s nationwide distribution network.

Bellisio is the third largest player in the single-serve frozen food industry, taking up nearly 11% of US market revenue share by 2016F, according to its company filings and presentations. Its iconic brands include Michelina’s, Boston Market, and Chili’s at Home, which account for around 70% of its total revenue. The company has strong cash flow, as shown by a continuous increase in EBITDA over the last five years with an 8% CAGR. We conservatively estimate that Charoen Pokphand would recognise revenue from its new business in FY17 of around THB21bn. This works out to around 4% of our FY16F revenue. Compared to countries in Europe, American consumers are already familiar with Thai cuisine, with more than 6,000 Thai restaurants operating in the US, according to Thailand’s Department of International Trade Promotion. We strongly believe that Bellisio would be able to successfully incorporate Thai food into its distribution network and benefit from adding menu variety and increasing its sales. Moreover, this additional food business for Charoen Pokphand would create a more sustainable margin for its overall operations, as compared to when the company relied on the spread between meat prices and raw materials.

Figure 2: Charoen Pokphand’s geographical footprint

Source: Company data

Figure 3: Revenue breakdown after Bellisio acquisition Figure 4: EBITDA margin expansion after acquisition

Source: Company data Source: Company data

9M16 (THBm) CPF Bellisio TotalRevenue 344,839 23,713 368,552 EBITDA 32,843 2,911 35,754 EBITDA margin 9.5% 12.3% 9.7%

Country Feed Farm Food China pig, chicken, shrimp, fish shrimp, fish ready-meal Vietnam pig, chicken, shrimp, fish pig, chicken, hen, shrimp, fish franchised Five-star Grilled Chicken, seafood exporting to the EU & Asia India chicken, shrimp chicken franchised Five-star Grilled Chicken Taiwan pig, chicken, duck pig, chicken ready-meal Turkey chicken, cow chicken, hen processed food exporting to Middle East countries Cambodia pig, chicken pig, chicken, hen, egg Five-star Grilled Chicken, ready-meal Malaysia shrimp, fish breeding pig processed shrimp for export, processed swine UK import ready-meal to distribute to the EU, Food Kiosk (Chozen Noodle) Philippines pig, chicken, shrimp, fish pig, chicken, shrimp, fish Laos pig, chicken pig, chicken, hen franchised Five-star Grilled Chicken Russia pig, cow pig, egg Belgium both chilled and ambient ready-meal exporting to EU Tanzania chicken chicken, hen US frozen food

Page 5: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 5

Sustainable increase of contributed equity income from CP ALL As Charoen Pokphand holds nearly 35% of CP ALL’s total shares outstanding, it can recognise its share of the latter’s profit as an equity income item. CP ALL is the sole operator of 7-Eleven stores in Thailand. We anticipate income from associates, contributed from CP ALL, to grow by 17% YoY to about THB6.88bn in 2017, due to the number of new stores planned (700 each year) and the increasing proportion of high-margin merchandise sales, which include ready-to-eat foods and other exclusive products. Additionally, there is ample room for growth in the upcountry, as upcoming infrastructure – such as new roads, and the expansion of the country-wide mass transit system – has created more locations for convenience stores to operate.

During recent years, Charoen Pokphand’s share price has also displayed a high correlation to CP ALL’s share price movement, given its significant stake. We think CP ALL’s upward trend toward our target price of THB72.00 would back up Charoen Pokphand’s share price over the long term, especially during the period of weakening meat prices.

Figure 5: Contributed equity income from CP ALL as a proportion of CPF’s core profit

Source: Company data

Page 6: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 6

Valuation We have a positive view on Charoen Pokphand, and our TP of THB38.50 implies 2.26x 2017F P/BV and 19.2x 2017F P/E. We expect the company’s FY17F core earnings to grow by 10%YoY, based on the recovery of its aquaculture business division both in Thailand and overseas, along with CP ALL’s projected continuous earnings growth (17.8% and 18.9% YoY for FY17F-18F.

We value Charoen Pokphand based on sum of parts analysis, excluding the market value and equity income of CP ALL, which we value on DCF.

i. For Charoen Pokphand’s core business, we estimate its value at THB9.40 per share using DCF, with 8.0% WACC and 3% terminal growth, implying 8.5x FY17F P/E.

ii. For its 35% stake in CP ALL, we also determine its value based on DCF, from which we derive that CP ALL's TP of THB72.00 is equivalent to THB29.00 per Charoen Pokphand share, ie 78% of the latter’s TP.

Downside risks to our rating and TP include:

i. A sharp swine/poulty price decline;

ii. Weak CP ALL performance;

iii. The potential return of EMS outbreaks.

Over the longer term, Charoen Pokphand’s sales might also be impacted by the modern eating trends towards more vegetables and less meat.

Figure 6: CPF’s SOP valuation

Source: RHB

Key assumption 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021EEBIT (1-T) 24,839 25,642 27,138 28,619 30,285 Depreciation & Amortization 13,871 14,364 14,817 15,234 15,617 Capital Expenditure (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) Change in net working capital (4,754) (1,798) (2,360) (2,574) (2,796) terminal valueFCFF 13,956 18,208 19,596 21,279 23,106 479,587 Present value 12,927 15,621 15,572 15,662 15,753 302,854 Terminal growth 3.0%WACC 8.0%Total discounted firm value 378,390 Less: Net debt (260,942) Less: Minority interest (57,360) Plus: Cash on hand 12,704 Plus: CPALL 224,951 Holding stake 34.78% RHB's target price 72 Total equity value 297,743 Number of share (M) 7,743 Equity value per share (THB) 38.5

Page 7: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 7

Figure 7: CP ALL’s DCF valuation

Source: Company data, RHB

Relatively undervalued compared to regional peers. In terms of P/E ratio, Charoen Pokphand’s share price is trading around the average of its domestic peers. However, it is at still a large discount from its regional peers that could better reflect the company’s business exposure both in terms of a fully integrated product chain and international presence in several regions. We believe that Charoen Pokphand’s P/E multiple should re-rate higher, to reflect its acquisition of Bellisio, as the new operations would increase overall margin and help sustain the company’s profitability, as it would reduce its reliance on selling commodities such as meat and animal feed.

Figure 8: Peer comparison

Note: Data as at 22 Dec 2016 Source: Bloomberg, RHB

P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA Div yield (%) ROE (%)

Company Market Cap. (USD

M) 16F 17F 16F 17F 16F 17F 16F 17F 16F 17F

Charoen Pokphand Foods PCL* 6,081 16.89 14.36 1.79 1.69 13.02 13.41 3.52 3.48 11.49 11.45

dom

estic

Thai Union Group PCL 2,733 17.55 14.71 2.01 1.87 13.04 11.09 3.04 3.55 11.79 13.06 Thaifoods Group PCL 1,028 20.14 18.69 5.78 4.57 14.17 12.09 1.66 2.76 30.60 26.80 GFPT PCL 509 12.20 11.55 1.76 1.60 9.41 8.94 2.27 2.32 15.14 14.16 Average Excluding CPF

16.63 14.98 3.18 2.68 12.21 10.71 2.32 2.88 19.17 18.01

inte

rnat

iona

l General Mills Inc 36,054 21.67 20.12 7.30 7.77 13.33 12.96 2.83 3.06 33.31 35.83 Hormel Foods Corp 18,672 21.44 20.75 4.28 3.94 12.68 12.13 1.63 1.86 20.45 19.16 BRF SA 11,552 44.86 16.99 2.73 2.53 11.70 8.94 2.43 2.37 7.27 14.84 NH Foods Ltd 5,459 23.65 21.19 1.72 1.70 10.82 9.91 1.38 1.44 7.53 8.30 Maple Leaf Foods Inc 2,790 22.98 20.48 1.81 1.81 9.51 8.98 1.29 1.32 8.20 8.30 Average Excluding CPF 26.92 19.91 3.57 3.55 11.61 10.58 1.91 2.01 15.35 17.29

Page 8: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 8

Figure 9: Charoen Pokphand’s historical P/E ratio Figure 10: Charoen Pokphand’s historical P/BV ratio

Source: Bloomberg, RHB Source: Bloomberg, RHB

Sensitivity Analysis We also discuss below the sensitivity of Charoen Pokphand’s share price, revenue and earnings to:

i. CP ALL’s share price;

ii. Meat prices;

iii. Feed ingredient prices.

CPALL’s share price

Charoen Pokphand’s share price has displayed a high correlation to CP ALL’s share price movement, given its 35% stake. On average, the subsidiary’s equity income has contributed nearly 40% of the company’s reported net income since 2012. As 78% of our TP is derived from its CP ALL holdings, we believe that the 7-Eleven operator is a major factor in determining the company’s share price movement.

As the two largest factors determining our valuation of Charoen Pokphand’s SOP TP are its terminal growth rate and our TP for CP ALL, we determined that for every THB5.00 change in CP ALL’s share price movement, this would affect Charoen Pokphand’s share price by THB2.00. Our sensitivity analysis is tabled below.

Figure 11: Sensitivity analysis of Charoen Pokphand’s SOP valuation

Source: RHB

38.45 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 62.00 30.70 34.40 39.00 44.80 67.00 32.70 36.40 41.00 46.80 72.00 34.70 38.50 43.00 48.80 77.00 36.70 40.50 45.10 50.80 82.00 38.70 42.50 47.10 52.80

CP

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Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 9

Figure 12: Charoen Pokphand’s market cap vs CP ALL’s market cap

Source: Bloomberg

Meat prices

Similar to typical livestock farms, Charoen Pokphand’s share price movements are significantly correlated with meat prices, especially in a volatile meat price environment. Charoen Pokphand’s earnings are also relatively sensitive to the selling prices of meat, as more than 85% of its revenue comes from its livestock business. We show below in our sensitivity analysis, the effect of the rise and fall of broiler and swine prices on both revenue and GPM of Charoen Pokphand’s Thai livestock operations (Figures 13, 14).

Figure 13: Change in meat prices (THB/kg) vs net change of revenue assumption (%) in local livestock division

Figure 14: Change in meat prices (THB/kg) vs net change of GPM assumption (%) in local livestock division

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Figure 15: Charoen Pokphand’s P/BV ratio vs average broiler price

Figure 16: Charoen Pokphand’s P/BV ratio vs average swine price

Source: Company data, Bloomberg Source: Company data, Bloomberg

Feed ingredient prices

30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.058.0 -20% -14% -8% -2% 4%63.0 -16% -10% -4% 2% 8%68.0 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12%73.0 -8% -2% 4% 10% 16%78.0 -4% 2% 8% 14% 20%av

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58.0 -6.4% -4.8% -3.2% -1.6% 0.0%63.0 -4.8% -3.2% -1.6% 0.0% 1.6%68.0 -3.2% -1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 3.2%73.0 -1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 3.2% 4.8%78.0 0.0% 1.6% 3.2% 4.8% 6.4%av

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avg. broiler price (THB/kg)

Page 10: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 10

Feed ingredient prices – especially that of corn – account for nearly 60% of total feed product ingredient costs, and are a key factor determining the profitability of the company’s farm operations. Charoen Pokphand’s share price normally reacts positively when there is a plunge in key ingredient prices such as those of corn, soybean, and fish meal. However, more than half of the company’s revenue comes from the sale of animal feed, which uses a cost-plus pricing policy. In a global cheap-ingredient-environment, the animal feed business should later be adversely affected by lower dollar margin.

Figure 17: Charoen Pokphand’s P/BV ratio vs average corn price

Source: Thai Feed Mill Association, Bloomberg

Financial Analysis Record-breaking revenue/ keeps charting highs. Charoen Pokphand marked another record quarter in 3Q16, with revenue of THB122bn (+9.5% YoY), driven by:

i. Its increased food business distribution channels;

ii. The recovery of its aquaculture business;

iii. The development of its overseas operations in China, Russia, and Vietnam.

We believe the company has moved in the right strategic direction by increasing the proportion of its food business, which should enhance awareness of its brand and provide a barrier against its competitors. By acquiring Bellisio, we estimate Charoen Pokphand’s revenue would increase by at least THB20bn pa – 4.2% of FY16F revenue. Potentially, this could be surpassed, after incorporating Charoen Pokphand’s existing frozen food products into Bellisio’s distribution network.

Figure 18: Revenue and gross margin

Source: Company data, RHB

Figure 19: Revenue growth breakdown by division

Page 11: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 11

Source: Company data, RHB

Declining percentage of SG&A to revenue. Charoen Pokphand’s operating expense to revenue ratio has continuously declined since 1Q16, due to the company’s cost reduction programme. The programme aims to reduce operating expenses to 9% of revenue (from about 9.5% currently), by reducing the number of departments that have duplicated tasks and merging departments with similar jobs. We believe that it might take more than a year for the company to achieve its 9% target (from trailing 12M of 10.4%), as it might incur additional expenses in these early stages of the Bellisio acquisition. Nevertheless, the resulting synergies would eventually lead to decreased expenses, our view.

Figure 20: Percentage of SG&A to revenue

Source: Company data

Still room to raise more debt. The company’s net debt to equity ratio has stayed below its bond covenant ratio of 2x. Although there is room to raise additional debt of around THB100bn, we believe that management would maintain this cushion, to buffer any rise in raw material prices when additional working capital might be necessary. Compared to its debt levels over the last five years, we believe a net D/E of around 1.4x is manageable, given that the company’s stake in CP ALL – worth around THB191bn – could be partially liquidated any time.

Figure 21: Net debt to equity ratio

THBm 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018FLocal Livestock 135,440 145,703 140,116 151,921 154,850 154,943 % growth 15% 8% -4% 8% 2% 0%Overseas Livestock 192,586 212,186 218,401 246,725 284,731 298,200 % growth 12% 10% 3% 13% 15% 5%Local Aquaculture 28,902 29,571 26,931 31,000 34,100 37,510 % growth -31% 2% -9% 15% 10% 10%Overseas Aquaculture 32,323 38,579 35,907 38,410 39,178 39,962 % growth 24% 19% -7% 7% 2% 2%

Page 12: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 12

Source: Company data, RHB

Anticipated fall in cash on hand should mean a pause in any big M&As for a while. As a result of the THB38bn Bellisio acquisition – its largest deal in the last five years – we estimate Charoen Pokphand’s cash on hand would drop to around THB13bn. The deal would be financed by both outstanding cash and working capital, arising from the company’s benefitting from the low feed cost environment (low prices of ingredients such as corn, wheat, and soybean meal). Given its current level of debt (1.77x D/E) and cash on hand, we assume the company would not be announcing any large M&A deals for at least the next six months before they manage to pay dividends to its shareholders in May, and may prefer to preserve the cash in case of rising raw material prices.

Figure 22: Cash & equivalents and cash flow breakdown

Note: CF = cash flow Source: Company data, RHB

Core earnings to still grow by double digits in 2017F-2018F from their new normal in 2016. In the past, Charoen Pokphand’s reported profit has relied on extraordinary items such as sales of investment, while its core profit remained weak, due to its overseas operations that were still in the early stage of investment. The overseas business – especially in Vietnam – has continued improving in terms of revenue growth and GPM, charting record highs (Figure 19).

We estimate 2016 core profit at THB13.2bn (excluding THB2.1bn of investment gain). For 2017F-2018F, we expect a growth of 17% and 11% YoY respectively, driven by the revenue growth from consolidating Bellisio, equity income growth from CP ALL, and margin expansion in its aquaculture division – both in Thailand and overseas – as the effects of the EMS outbreak eases.

Figure 23: Core earnings and net margin

Page 13: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 13

Source: Company data

Industry Overview Thailand’s poultry sector In the last three years, broiler production in Thailand has grown around 5% pa to serve both export demand and domestic consumption. Despite Thailand’s import ban on US live poultry and uncooked poultry products in late Dec 2014 – which affected the number of imported US broiler grandparent stock (which make three-quarters of total imports) – the local broiler industry effectively resolved the potential supply bottleneck. This was done by prolonging the use of grandparent and parent stock for broiler production, and switching the genetic supplies to other sources in Denmark, France, and the Netherlands. We estimate that Thailand’s production could increase by around 4-5% pa, if there are no serious animal disease outbreaks such as the bird flu in 2004.

In Jan 2004, a major outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) – H5N1 or the bird flu – hit Thailand’s poultry industry, killing a number of chickens and causing import bans on uncooked Thai frozen chicken meat in the EU, Japan, Hong Kong, South Africa, Russia, and Qatar. To mitigate the effects of and prevent such diseases, the local broiler industry has improved farming facilities and biosecurity measures, by applying closed-farm systems and equipping broiler houses with evaporative cooling systems. As a result, the EU lifted its ban on imports of Thai frozen uncooked chickens in July 2012, followed by Japan lifting its ban in Dec 2013.

We believed Japan and the EU would continue to be the major buyers of Thai chicken meat exports – accounting for 48% and 31%, respectively during the last three years. Furthermore, other countries, such as South Korea and Mexico, have already lifted their bans. As a result, we estimate Thailand’s broiler exports to continue expanding, at approximately 5-10% YoY for 2017.

Page 14: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 14

Figure 24: Thailand’s broiler production and domestic consumption

Source: United States Department of Agriculture, RHB

Figure 25: Thailand’s broiler exports vs broiler export price

Source: National Food Institute

Thailand’s pork sector

Unlike the broiler market, most pork production in Thailand is to cater to nearly 96% of domestic consumption in the form of raw meat, and processed food. As an average pig consumes up to 10 litres of water per day in order to strengthen its immune system and to cool down its body, the recent drought in Thailand (2014-2015) has slowed down swine production growth in the last two years. Moreover, the incidence of one of the most infectious swine diseases – foot and mouth disease (FMD) – has also been a barrier for exporting pork from Thailand. As such, we estimate that total pork production in the country would increase by only the long-term trend of 1-2% pa, due to the difficulties of farming and the production interruptions caused by outbreaks of animal diseases.

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Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 15

Thailand’s shrimp industry

The domestic shrimp industry has been affected by outbreaks of EMS since 2012, a deadly disease which causes baby farmed shrimp to stop eating, release toxins, and eventually die within 30 days. Between 2012 and 2015, there was a dramatic drop in the number of aquaculture farmers in Thailand. This also resulted in aquaculture feed production plant operators posting losses, as they were not able to meet their breakeven quantities. The shortage in shrimp also led to rising shrimp prices, raising the costs for frozen and canned seafood manufacturers.

This squeeze was recently alleviated by the development of a new species of shrimp, as well as new farm practices, leading to the comeback of the country’s shrimp production to approximately 300,000 tonnes per year. 90% of this is exported to the US, Japan, the EU, and China. While Thailand’s competitors in shrimp exports, India and Vietnam – who hold 16.2% and 15.1% market shares respectively (National Food Institute data as at 2015) – Thai shrimp producers distinguish themselves by their high quality and credible product traceability.

Figure 26: Shrimp production in Thailand

Source: National Food Institute

Page 16: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 16

Company Snapshot Charoen Pokphand is the leading agro-industrial and food conglomerate in the Asia-Pacific region, with a fully integrated business, from animal feed to processed food, with operations in 14 countries. The company operates in both the livestock (swine, broilers, layers, and ducks) and aquaculture (shrimp and fish) businesses. The vertically integrated businesses incorporate the manufacturing of animal feed, animal breeding, animal farming, meat processing, manufacturing of cooked meat, as well as food retailing and restaurant businesses. Income from its 35% stake in CP ALL is consolidated via the equity income method.

Key Products Charoen Pokphand’s three major product categories are:

i. Feed business, involving production and sale of animal feed;

ii. Farm business, involving breeding, farming, and basic meat processing;

iii. Food business, involving production of both cooked meat and retail food outlets.

Feed products The feed business has contributed around 50% of Charoen Pokphand’s revenue (about THB210bn on average) for the last five years, while over 40% comes from its operations in China, the second largest in the country by market share and revenue. Its main products include swine feed, chicken feed, duck feed, shrimp feed, and fish feed under its own brands.

In order to distribute products directly to large-scale farmers with minimal transportation cost, the company has located its manufacturing plants in several regions of the countries where it operates. The main raw materials for feed production are fishmeal and from agricultural crops such as from corn, soybean meal and wheat flour. These have volatile prices determined by supply and demand in the global market. The company then passes on the costs to its customers by pricing its products in this category via a cost-plus margin policy. Moreover, the company’s feed business generally has a higher margin than the industry average, due to:

i. Its bargaining power of being able to buy raw material in large bulk orders;

ii. Its superior product formula that lowers the feed-to-conversion ratio (the feed quantity necessary to produce 1kg of animal weight).

Key characteristics of Charoen Pokphand’s feed business

i. The product prices tend to move in parallel with the cost of production, and for that reason, the company’s dollar margin of the feed business normally increases during the period of rising crop prices;

ii. The key revenue driver relies on the company’s ability to expand its distribution channels and farmer network.

Figure 27: Feed business product samples

Source: Company

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Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 17

Farm products The main products of farm business consist of swine, broilers, ducks, shrimp, and fish in the forms of various animal breeds, as well as basic processed meat. The company has continuously developed its own breeds in order to match farming conditions in each country and to meet consumers’ preferences. The animal breeds are partly sold to contract farmers where they rear the baby animals, later selling them back to Charoen Pokphand for slaughter. Its processing plant then cuts and trims the meat into pieces as per customers’ requests, before distributing the products to retailers, wholesalers and food services providers.

Key characteristics of Charoen Pokphand’s farm business

i. The selling prices are usually subject to the demand and quantity of the output available in Thailand and in the world market;

ii. The business GPM significantly fluctuates from quarter to quarter generally, depending on the movements in meat prices and feed costs.

Figure 28: Farm business product samples

Source: Company

Food products

The company’s aim is to add value to the basic processed products from its animal farms by processing them into cooked food and ready-to-eat food products. It then delivers these products through several distribution channels such as convenience stores, supermarkets, food outlets, and through export. The frozen, processed foods are exported to over 18 countries worldwide, such as to the EU, the UK, Japan, the UK and other Asian countries.

This not only increases the demand for meat from its food business, but also stabilises the company’s overall margins, as food product margins (with cost-plus pricing) are more stable than those of the farm business (which fluctuate with meat prices). The company also has its own retail and food outlets such as Five-star Grilled Chicken and Chester Grill.

Key characteristics of Charoen Pokphand’s food business

i. The division has a more stable and higher margin compared to the other segments;

ii. There is ample room to grow in this market, as consumer behaviour is shifting more toward that of convenience.

Figure 29: Food business product samples

Source: Company

Page 18: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 18

Key Divisions The company has divided the reporting of its operating performance into these four main divisions:

i. Local livestock – involving its integrated livestock supply chain in Thailand, which includes animal feed production, basic meat processing, food production, as well as the export of food and meat to Europe and Japan;

ii. Overseas livestock – involving feed production in China, its swine farm in Vietnam; and its broiler farms in India, Russia, Turkey, Cambodia, Laos, Philippines, and Taiwan;

iii. Local aquaculture – which involves the sale of baby shrimp, shrimp feed production in Thailand and the export of processed shrimp to Europe;

iv. Overseas aquaculture – which mainly involves shrimp feed production in China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, India, and Taiwan.

Figure 30: Revenue breakdown by division (2015) Figure 31: Revenue breakdown by division

Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

Local livestock (32% of total revenue)

Charoen Pokphand’s local livestock division produces animal feed, and processes approximately 280m chickens and 4.5m pigs per year. More than 80% of this production is supplied to the domestic market in the form of raw materials – specifically, tailored cuts, frozen products, as well as prepared meals. The rest of the products are usually exported to Europe and Japan, which normally account for around 15% of the total revenue in this division.

146 140 152 155 155

212 218 247 285 298

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Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 19

Figure 32: Local livestock segment revenue

Source: Company data, RHB

Overseas livestock (53% of total revenue) Charoen Pokphand’s primary overseas livestock business is based in China, where it is involved in the production and distribution of animal feed, with swine feed as the main product. The operations are estimated to deem it the second largest animal feed producer in the fragmented China market (with around 5% market share), with 91 feed mills currently spread throughout the country. This is in order to distribute products directly to large-scale farmers with minimal transportation costs. In addition to its China operations, the company also operates swine feed and farm business in Vietnam, taking up approximately 25% of the local revenue market share due to the small number of commercial farms in the country. Its remaining livestock operations are in Taiwan, Turkey, Russia, India, Cambodia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Laos.

Figure 33: Overseas livestock segment revenue

Source: Company data, RHB

Page 20: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 20

Local aquaculture (7% of total revenue) Charoen Pokphand has developed its own shrimp breed, and supplies both baby shrimp and animal feed to local farms. The company’s shrimp feed mill is capable of producing up to 600,000 tonnes pa. We estimate the current utilisation rate to be around 60%, due to the EMS outbreaks in Thailand since the end of 2012 (as well as continual outbreaks in India). However, the survival rate of Charoen Pokphand’s shrimp has been improving, especially since 2Q16, as a result of its successful development of a new shrimp species.

Figure 34: Local aquaculture segment revenue

Source: Company data, RHB

Overseas aquaculture (8% of total revenue) Charoen Pokphand’s overseas aquaculture division includes its operations in China, Vietnam, India, Malaysia, and Philippines. The division benefitted from its geographically diversified operations, as when EMS began to affect the business in China, Vietnam, and Malaysia, the company’s subsidiaries in India and Philippines still maintained their profitability.

Figure 35: Overseas aquaculture segment revenue

Source: Company data, RHB

Page 21: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 21

Figure 36: Charoen Pokphand’s vertically integrated business model

Source: Company

Figure 37: Charoen Pokphand’s retail food products

Source: Company

Page 22: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 22

Figure 38: Charoen Pokphand’s geographical footprint

Source: Company

Figure 39: Michelina’s products, which represent 50% of Bellisio Foods’ business

Source: Company

Page 23: Thailand...Charoen Pokphand nearly hold35% of CPs ALL’s total shares outstanding, which could recognise profit sharing of ~THB6bn (45% of NP) pa. The sole operator of 7-Eleven stores

Charoen Pokphand Thailand

6 January 2017 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

See important disclosures at the end of this report 23

SWOT Analysis

• Well-diversified operations across businesses and geographies

• High bargaining power over suppliers and clients

• Possible animal disease outbreaks that could adversely affect demand and supply

• Changing consumer behaviour towards consuming more vegetables and less meat

• Trend towards ready-to-eat and frozen food

• Still more room to expand in Africa, and the US

• Volatile profitability based on the movement of commodity prices

• A large corporate hierarchy that can slow down the decision-making process and limit innovative ideas

Recommendation Chart

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

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Recommendations & Target Price

Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated

Date Recommendation Target Price Price

2014-08-15 Buy 34.0 28.8

2014-07-25 Neutral 31.0 27.8

2014-02-28 Buy 33.0 27.3

2013-11-11 Buy 27.0 24.2

2013-08-12 Neutral 27.0 25.0

2013-05-15 Buy 38.0 30.8

2013-02-27 Sell 28.0 33.0

2013-01-21 Sell 24.0 34.5

2012-11-15 Sell 24.0 33.3

2012-11-14 Sell 24.0 33.0

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Charoen Pokphand Thailand

Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

24

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Investment Research Disclaimers RHB has issued this report for information purposes only. This report is intended for circulation amongst RHB and its affiliates’ clients generally or such persons as may be deemed eligible by RHB to receive this report and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. 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Any recommendations contained in this report must therefore not be relied upon as investment advice based on the recipient's personal circumstances. Investors should make their own independent evaluation of the information contained herein, consider their own investment objective, financial situation and particular needs and seek their own financial, business, legal, tax and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. This report may contain forward-looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “believe”, “estimate”, “intend” and “expect” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward-looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to RHB and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievement to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievement, expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Caution should be taken with respect to such statements and recipients of this

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Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

25

report should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements. RHB expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. The use of any website to access this report electronically is done at the recipient’s own risk, and it is the recipient’s sole responsibility to take precautions to ensure that it is free from viruses or other items of a destructive nature. This report may also provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. RHB takes no responsibility for the content contained therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks (including addresses or hyperlinks to RHB own website material) are provided solely for the recipient’s convenience. The information and the content of the linked site do not in any way form part of this report. 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RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this report. Thailand This report is issued and distributed in the Kingdom of Thailand by RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL, a licensed securities company that is authorised by the Ministry of Finance, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand and is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The Thai Institute of Directors Association has disclosed the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies made pursuant to the policy of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand. RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL does not endorse, confirm nor certify the result of the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies.

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Charoen Pokphand Thailand

Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

26

Indonesia This report is issued and distributed in Indonesia by PT RHB Securities Indonesia. This research does not constitute an offering document and it should not be construed as an offer of securities in Indonesia. Any securities offered or sold, directly or indirectly, in Indonesia or to any Indonesian citizen or corporation (wherever located) or to any Indonesian resident in a manner which constitutes a public offering under Indonesian laws and regulations must comply with the prevailing Indonesian laws and regulations. Singapore This report is issued and distributed in Singapore by RHB Research Institute Singapore Pte Ltd and it may only be distributed in Singapore to accredited investors, expert investors and institutional investors as defined in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time. By virtue of distribution to these categories of investors, RHB Research Institute Singapore Pte Ltd and its representatives are not required to comply with Section 36 of the Financial Advisers Act (Chapter 110) (Section 36 relates to disclosure of RHB Research Institute Singapore Pte Ltd ’s interest and/or its representative's interest in securities). Recipients of this report in Singapore may contact RHB Research Institute Singapore Pte Ltd in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the report. Hong Kong This report is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by RHB Securities Hong Kong Limited (興業金融證券有限公司) (CE No.: ADU220) (“RHBSHK”) which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for Type 1 (dealing in securities) and Type 4 (advising on securities) regulated activities. Any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered in this report should contact RHB Securities Hong Kong Limited. United States This report was prepared by RHB and is being distributed solely and directly to “major” U.S. institutional investors as defined under, and pursuant to, the requirements of Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). RHB is not registered as a broker-dealer in the United States and does not offer brokerage services to U.S. persons. Any order for the purchase or sale of the securities discussed herein that are listed on Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad must be placed with and through Auerbach Grayson (“AG”). Any order for the purchase or sale of all other securities discussed herein must be placed with and through such other registered U.S. broker-dealer as appointed by RHB from time to time as required by the Exchange Act Rule 15a-6. This report is confidential and not intended for distribution to, or use by, persons other than the recipient and its employees, agents and advisors, as applicable. Additionally, where research is distributed via Electronic Service Provider, the analysts whose names appear in this report are not registered or qualified as research analysts in the United States and are not associated persons of Auerbach Grayson AG or such other registered U.S. broker-dealer as appointed by RHB from time to time and therefore may not be subject to any applicable restrictions under Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) rules on communications with a subject company, public appearances and personal trading. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments discussed in this research report may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Information on non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Foreign companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in the United States. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Transactions in foreign markets may be subject to regulations that differ from or offer less protection than those in the United States. OWNERSHIP AND MATERIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST Malaysia RHB does not have qualified shareholding (1% or more) in the subject company (ies) covered in this report except for: a) - RHB and/or its subsidiaries are not liquidity providers or market makers for the subject company (ies) covered in this report except for: a) - RHB and/or its subsidiaries have not participated as a syndicate member in share offerings and/or bond issues in securities covered in this report in the last 12 months except for: a) - RHB has not provided investment banking services to the company/companies covered in this report in the last 12 months except for: a) -

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Charoen Pokphand Thailand

Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

27

Thailand RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL and/or its directors, officers, associates, connected parties and/or employees, may have, or have had, interests and/or commitments in the securities in subject company(ies) mentioned in this report or any securities related thereto. Further, RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL may have, or have had, business relationships with the subject company(ies) mentioned in this report. As a result, investors should exercise their own judgment carefully before making any investment decisions. Indonesia PT RHB Securities Indonesia is not affiliated with the subject company(ies) covered in this report both directly or indirectly as per the definitions of affiliation above. Pursuant to the Capital Market Law (Law Number 8 Year 1995) and the supporting regulations thereof, what constitutes as affiliated parties are as follows: 1. Familial relationship due to marriage or blood up to the second degree, both horizontally or vertically;

2. Affiliation between parties to the employees, Directors or Commissioners of the parties concerned;

3. Affiliation between 2 companies whereby one or more member of the Board of Directors or the Commissioners are the same;

4. Affiliation between the Company and the parties, both directly or indirectly, controlling or being controlled by the Company;

5. Affiliation between 2 companies which are controlled, directly or indirectly, by the same party; or

6. Affiliation between the Company and the main Shareholders.

PT RHB Securities Indonesia is not an insider as defined in the Capital Market Law and the information contained in this report is not considered as insider information prohibited by law. Insider means: a. a commissioner, director or employee of an Issuer or Public Company;

b. a substantial shareholder of an Issuer or Public Company;

c. an individual, who because of his position or profession, or because of a business relationship with an Issuer or Public Company, has access to inside information; and

d. an individual who within the last six months was a Person defined in letters a, b or c, above.

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Charoen Pokphand Thailand

Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

28

RHBSHK or any of its group companies may make a market in the securities covered by this report. RHBSHK or any of its group companies may have analysts or their associates, individual(s) employed by or associated with RHBSHK or any of its group companies serving as an officer of the company or any of the companies covered by this report. RHBSHK or any of its group companies may have received compensation or a mandate for investment banking services to the company or any of the companies covered by this report within the past 12 months. Note: The reference to “group companies” above refers to a group company of RHBSHK that carries on a business in Hong Kong in (a) investment banking; (b) proprietary trading or market making; or (c) agency broking, in relation to securities listed or traded on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited.

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Jakarta Shanghai Bangkok

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Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2015

Excellent ADVANC CPN GRAMMY KBANK MCOT PS RATCH SCB THCOM WACOAL BAFS DRT HANA KCE MINT PSL ROBINS SCC TISCO BCP DTAC HMPRO KKP MONO PTT SAMART SE-ED TKT BIGC DTC INTUCH KTB NKI PTTEP SAMTEL SIM TMB BTS EASTW IRPC LHBANK PHOL PTTGC SAT SNC TOP CK EGCO IVL LPN PPS QTC SC SPALI VGI

Very Good AAV BBL COL HEMRAJ MC PG SCG SST THIP TPC TWS ACAP BDMS CPF HOTPOT MEGA PJW SEAFCO STA THRE TPCORP UAC AGE BECL CPI HYDRO MFEC PM SFP STEC THREL TRC UT AHC BKI CSL ICC NBC PPP SIAM SVI TICON TRU UV AKP BLA DCC ICHI NCH PR SINGER SWC TIP TRUE VNT AMATA BMCL DELTA INET NINE PRANDA SIS SYMC TIPCO TSC WAVE ANAN BOL DEMCO IRC NSI PREB SITHAI SYNTEC TK TSTE WINNER AOT BROOK ECF KSL NTV PT SMK TASCO TKS TSTH YUASA APCS BWG EE KTC OCC PTG SMPC TBSP TMI TTA ZMICO ARIP CENTEL ERW LANNA OGC Q-CON SMT TCAP TMILL TTCL ASIMAR CFRESH GBX LH OISHI QH SNP TF TMT TTW ASK CHO GC LOXLEY OTO RS SPI TGCI TNDT TU ASP CIMBT GFPT LRH PAP S&J SSF THAI TNITY TVD BANPU CM GLOBAL MACO PDI SABINA SSI THANA TNL TVO BAY CNT GUNKUL MBK PE SAMCO SSSC THANI TOG TWFP* * On Oct 1,2015 TWFP TWFP merged with TWS resulting in a new company, TWPC

Good 2S AS CBG DNA GCAP ITD LHK MK PATO PTL SEAOIL STPI AEC ASIA CGD EARTH GENCO JSP LIT MODERN PB PYLON SIRI SUC AEONTS AUCT CHG EASON GL JTS LIVE MOONG PCA QLT SKR SUSCO AF AYUD CHOW ECL GLAND JUBILE LST MPG PCSGH RCL SMG SUTHA AH BA CI EFORL GLOW KASET M MSC PDG RICHY SOLAR SYNTEC AIRA BEAUTY CITY ESSO GOLD KBS MAJOR MTI PF RML SORKON TAE AIT BEC CKP FE GYT KCAR MAKRO MTLS PICO RPC SPA TAKUNI AJ BFIT CNS FIRE HTC KGI MATCH NC PL S SPC TCC AKR BH CPALL FOCUS HTECH KKC MATI NOK PLANB SALEE SPCG TCCC AMANAH BIG CPL FORTH IEC KTIS MBKET NUSA PLAT SAPPE SPPT TCJ AMARIN BJC CSC FPI IFEC KWC M-CHAI NWR PPM SAWAD SPVI TEAM AP BJCHI CSP FSMART IFS KYE MFC NYT PRG SCCC SRICHA TFD APCO BKD CSS FSS IHL L&E MILL OCEAN PRIN SCN SSC TFI AQUA BTNC CTW FVC IRCP LALIN MJD PACE PSTC SCP STANLY TIC TIW TPIPL UPF VPO TLUXE TRT UPOIC WHA TMC TSE UREKA WIN TMD TSR UWC XO TOPP UMI VIBHA TPCH UP VIH

IOD (IOD Disclaimer)

การเปิดเผลผลการสํารวจของสมาคมสง่เสริมสถาบนักรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเร่ืองการกํากบัดแูลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นีเ้ป็นการ

ดําเนินการตามนโยบายของสํานกังานคณะกรรมการกํากบัหลกัทรัพย์และตลาดหลกัทรัพย์ โดยการสํารวจของ IOD เป็นการสํารวจและประเมินจากข้อมลูของบรษัทจด

ทะเบียนในตลาดหลกัทรัพย์แหง่ประเทศไทยและตลาดหลกัทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยตอ่สาธารณะและเป็นข้อมลูที่ผู้ลงทนุทัว่ไปสามารถเข้าถงึได้ ดงันัน้ผลสํารวจ

ดงักลา่วจงึเป็นการนําเสนอในมมุมองของบคุคลภายนอกโดยไมไ่ด้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบตัิและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมลูภายในในการประเมิน

อนึ่ง ผลการสาํรวจดงักลา่ว เป็นผลการสํารวจ ณ วนัที่ปรากฎในรายงานการกํากบัดแูละกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเทา่นัน้ ดงันัน้ผลการสํารวจจงึอาจ

เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลงัวนัดงักลา่ว ทัง้นีบ้ริษัทหลกัทรัพย์ อาร์เอชบี จํากดั (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยนัหรือรับรองถึงความถกูต้องของผลการสํารวจดงักลา่วแตอ่ยา่งใด

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ขอมูล Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator ของบริษัทจดทะเบียน

ระดบั 1

ACD BAT-3K CCN DTCI HFT LST

NEP PRIN SCN SPPT TCJ TRUBB UPA

AEONTS BIG

CGD

E HTECH

MAJOR

NNCL PSTC

SEAFCO SPVI

TCOAT

TSE UPOIC

AFC BJC

CMR

EMC IHL

MATCH

NWR PYLON

SF STA

TH

TTA UTP

AIRA BLISS

CPH

ESSO ILINK

MAX

OHTL RAM

SHANG STAR

TKS

TTI UVAN

AJ BMCL

CSC

FOCUS ITD

M-CHAI

PICO RICH

SIRI SVH

TNH

TTL VARO

ALUCON BOL

CSP

FSMART JSP

MDX

PK RS

SMART SVOA

TNPC

TTTM VI

AMC BRR

CTW

GIFT KDH

MIDA

PL SANKO

SMM SWC

TPA

TWP VIBHA

AQUA BSBM

DCON

GLAND KTIS

ML

PPM SAUCE

SOLAR TAPAC

TPAC

TWZ VIH

ARIP CBG

DRACO

GRAND KTP

MPIC

PRAKIT SAWAD

SPACK TC

TPOLY

U VTE

AUCT CCET

DSGT

GUNKUL LEE

NC

PRECHA SAWANG

SPG TCCC

TRC

UMS WG

ระดบั 2 2S

ABICO

AF

AKP

AMARIN

AMATA

AOT

APCO

AYUD

BEAUTY

BFIT BH BKD BLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL

EPCO FE FNS FVC GEL GLOBAL HEMRAJ IEC IFS INET

JUTHA KASET KCAR KKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX M MALEE MBK MBKET MEGA MK MPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC

OCEAN PB PCA PRINC QH ROCK RPC S & J SGP SIAM

SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKON SUSCO TAKUNI TEAM TF TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRU TRUE TSC TSI

TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ UWC VNG WIIK WIN XO

ระดบั 3A ABC

ACAP

ADVANC

AEC

AGE

AH

AIE

AMANAH

ANAN

AP

APCS APURE AS ASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG

CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARAN CHO CHOTI CM CNT COL CPALL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMET DNA DTAC EA ECF

EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOW HMPRO HOTPOT ICC

ICHI IFEC INOX INSURE IRC JAS JTS JUBILE KC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKRO MC MCOT MFC MFEC MINT

MJD MONO MOONG NBC NDR NINE NMG NSI NTV OGC

PACE PCSGH PDI PG PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREB PS QLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO SCCC SCG

SEAOIL SE-ED SENA SINGER SITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG

SPI SRICHA SSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMC SYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAI THRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TMILL TMT TNL VNT

TPCORP WACOAL

TSTE WHA

TSTH ZMICO

TTCL TU TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI

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ระดบั 3B AAV

AHC

AI

AIT

AKR

ARROW

ASK

BA

BDMS

BEC

BECL BJCHI BUI CGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP

COLOR CWT EARTH EASON EPG F&D FANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMY HYDRO IRPC IT JCT KCM

KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRIN MATI MODERN MSC NOBLE

NOK NPK NUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAP PATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTL Q-CON QTC RCI S11 SALEE

SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIM SLP SMT

SPA SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA T TAE TBSP TCC TFD TGCI TGPRO THANA THIP TIW TK TMW

TNDT TOPP TPC TPCH TPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS

UEC UMI UP UPF UT UV VPO WAVE WINNER YUASA

ระดบั 4 ASP

BAFS

BANPU

BAY

BBL

BKI

BLA

CIMBT

CNS

CSL

DCC DRT DTC EASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA

HTC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE KGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTI NKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNC SNP

SSF SSSC TCAP THCOM TISCO TMB TMD TNITY TOG

ระดบั 5 BCP

CPN

GYT

PE

PM

PPP

PT

PTT

PTTGC

SAT

SCC THANI TOP

ไมเปดเผยหรือไมมีนโยบาย

A ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO

CPR CRANE EIC FER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC

MBAX MCS METCO NEW NEWS NYT PAE PDG PERM PMTA POST RCL RICHY ROH S SIMAT TCB TR TSF TVT

WORK

หมายเหต ุ

ระดับ 1: มีนโยบาย ระดับ 2: ประกาศเจตนารมณ ระดับ 3: มีมาตรการปองกัน ซ่ึงทั้ง 2 กรณี ถือเปนผลการประเมินในระดับเดียวกัน 3A: บริษัทมีการประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรือภาค 3B: บริษัทมีคํามั่นและนโยบายของบริษัท แตมิไดประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรือภาค ระดับ 4: ไดรับการรับรอง ระดับ 5: ขยายผลสูผูที่เกี่ยวของ