Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q3 & 9M/2013 Analyst Presentation

5 November 2013

-2-

Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation is intended

solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this

material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not

read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in

reliance upon it.

-3-

VISION A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL

COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC

MISSION

• To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment

• To create a high-performance organization that promotes

teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainability

• To emphasis good Corporate Governance and commit to Corporate

Social Responsibility

VALUES

Corporate Vision, Mission and Values

Professionalism

Ownership & Commitment

Social Responsibility Integrity Teamwork & Collaboration Initiative

Vision Focus

Excellent Striving

-4-

Corporate Governance Policy

Corporate Governance Policy

The board of directors, management

and all staff shall commit to moral

principles, equitable treatment to all

stakeholders and perform their duties for

the company’s interest with dedication,

integrity, and transparency.

Roles and Responsibilities for

Stakeholders

• Truthfully report company’s situation and

future trends to all stakeholders equally

on a timely manner.

• Shall not exploit the confidential

information for the benefit of related

parties or personal gains.

• Shall not disclose any confidential

information to external parties.

CG Channels

Should you discover any

ethical wrongdoing that is

not compliance to CG policies

or any activity that could

harm the Company’s interest,

please inform:

Corporate Management Office Thai Oil Public Company Limited 555/1 Energy Complex Building A

11F, Vibhavadi Rangsit Road,

Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900

cgcoordinate@thaioilgroup.com http://www.thaioilgroup.com

+66-0-2797-2999 ext. 7312-5

+66-0-2797-2973

-5-

Agenda

Business Highlights

-7-

Q3/13 : Business Highlights Economic / Industry Highlights

• Concerns over US debt ceiling, US Fed QE tapering,

Euro debt crisis and Chinese econ data

• Chinese econ reform under Li Keqiang govt. to

introduce Likonomics– no stimulus, deleveraging and

structural reform.

• Uncertainties in Middle East and North Africa

• Strong PX demand from polyester season together

with mending PTA markets whereas SM season

supporting BZ demand

• Healthy lube and bitumen demand from China,

Vietnam and Indonesia under lower cost of

feedstock price

• IEA cut 2013 & 2014 oil demand growth

• Plant outages and oil field maintenance season

caused tight supply situation supporting oil price

• Rising oil price resulted in Stock Gain

• Recovered GRM from increasing oil cracks

especially middle distillates

• Better Aromatics margins

• Improved lube base and bitumen margins

Financial Highlights Business Highlights

• BOI privilege tax exemption on emission & fuel

efficiency projects ~1,021 MB (accrual basis)

• Risk mgt via commodity hedging gain ~432 MB

Q3/13, and gain ~904 MB in 9M/13

• Depreciation of THB against USD ~0.3 THB/USD

causing minor FX loss at ~249 million THB

• 2013 Interim dividend paid 0.8 THB/share in Sep’13 ( 58% dividend pay out ratio)

Safety / Reliability / Flexibility / Efficiency

• Max run rate of TOP/ TPX/ TLB at 104%/ 95%/ 112%

• Better earnings contribution from subsidiaries;

oTP & TM: higher run rate after maintenance period in Q2

oTS: rising selling product price tracking its up-trend crude

oTET: improved gasohol demand after ULG 91 phase out w/

efficient operation of SAPTHIP; a cassava ethanol plant

• Member of DJSI Emerging Markets 2013

(99 percentile rank) assessed by RobecoSAM

Corporate Sustainability Assessment

-8-

-462

4,267

9,029

-1,103

3,342

1,378

NP w/o Stock G/L Stock G/(L) LCM

Q3/13: Stronger-than-Expected Result

Top Group Net Profit

$/bbl Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/13

Marketing GRM 3.6 5.0 5.1

Stock Gain/(Loss) (1.4) 4.0 0.6

Accounting GRM 2.2 9.0 5.7

Unit : million THB

*redeemed BOI privilege for tax exemption on environmental projects in Q2/13 = None, Q3/13 = 1,021 MB and 9M/13 = 1,022 MB

Gross Refining Margin - GRM

Gross Integrated Margin - GIM

$/bbl Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/13

Aromatics 1.4 1.9 1.8

Lube base 0.8 1.2 0.8

Marketing GIM 5.6 7.9 7.4

Accounting GIM 4.2 11.7 8.0

Q3/13 Q2/13

Before tax

7,609 * MB (1,565)* MB 10,407* MB

9M/13

Performance Analysis

-10-

101 111 107 106 116 106 106 107 108 101 106 20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Avg. Mar’12

122 $/bbl

Avg. Jun’12

94 $/bbl

Avg. Dec’10

89 $/bbl

Avg. Dec’11

106 $/bbl

Avg. Sep’13

108 $/bbl

Avg. Mar’13

105 $/bbl

Avg. Dec’12

106 $/bbl

Avg. Sep’12

111 $/bbl Avg . Jun’13

100 $/bbl

Q3/13: Ongoing MENA Unrest…Escalating Crude Price

Unrest in Middle East & North Africa

Concern on US debt ceiling and stimulus package

Refining

$/bbl

Q1/11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4

106 109

Dubai Crude Oil Price

107.2 $/bbl

as of 1 Nov

Q1/13 Q3

Crude Absence…Short Supply

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

100 104 107 108 107

Q2

• Debt Ceiling Crisis. If Congress doesn't raise the debt

ceiling, then they can’t auction any notes to pay bills.

• Uncertainty of QE tapering. FED maintained QE in

Sep’13 but if US’s economy improved as hoped, Fed

would withdraw QE in soon.

• Political violence in Egypt and South Sudan

• Iraq Disruption: oil dispute with Kurdish territory

• Syria’s chemical weapon issue: concerns on US

possible military intervention in Syria.

• Libya's oil output fell to below 145 KBD in the end-

Aug from 1.3 MMBD in Jun due to protest closing oil

terminals

• Supply outage at Buzzard oilfield

• Limited crude supply from North Sea due to

turnaround in Aug-13

• Atlantic hurricane season

IEA cut demand growth • IEA cut oil demand growth in 2013 by 30 KBD to 0.89

MMBD as the IMF world GDP forecast is reduced from

3.3% to 3.1%. Oil demand growth in 2014 is also cut

from 1.2 MMBD to 1.1 MMBD.

-11-

Q3/13: Favorable Jet/Diesel Margins…Higher GRM

Refining

-0.5 -1.3 -2.4 -9.0 -7.3

-3.6

-10.7

-1.4 -7.2

4.0 4.6

7.7 5.2 6.6

3.6 5.0 5.4 5.1 15.6 16.0

20.2 19.3 20.3 15.3 17.0 17.3 17.5

14.3 13.9 15.9 13.4

18.4 14.6 12.4 14.7 15.1

-39.1 -41.7 -46.7 -32.6 -38.9 -41.6 -43.5 -40.4 -40.3

+ Peak summer demand from the ME.

+ Refineries run cuts and outage in India and Taiwan

+ Open arbitrage from SK to UK

Q4TD 1 Nov (Unit: $/bbl) LPG - DB

ULG95 - DB

- End of US driving season & Ramadan season

- Lower demand from Indonesia and Vietnam due to

weak economy and currency.

JET - DB + Firm EU travel demand in summer

+ China’s refiners used up government export quotas

+ Refineries run cuts and outage in India and Taiwan

Diesel - DB

HSFO - DB

- High inflows from the West

- Slow demand from Chinese Teapot refineries

- Weak regional bunker demand

Gross Refining Margin - GRM

-41.4

7.7

16.5

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M/12 9M/13

16.4 15.3 19.3 17.5 19.6

16.8 17.3 17.0 17.9 17.3

-9.5

• LPG price = 76% CP price + 24%*333 $/ton.

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M/12 9M/13

Strong JET & Diesel

w/ max production

-12-

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M/12 9M/13

4.0 4.6

7.7 5.2

6.6

3.6 5.0 5.4 5.1

Uptrend Crude Price…Big Jump in Inventory Gain

Marketing Gross Refining Margin – Marketing GRM

Stock Gain/ Loss

Accounting Gross Refining Margin – Accounting GRM

(Unit: $/bbl)

(Unit: $/bbl)

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M/12 9M/13

5.2

(10.9)

4.4

(1.9) (1.1) (1.4)

4.0

(0.5)

0.6

9.2

(6.3)

12.1 3.3 5.5 2.2

9.0 4.9 5.7

(Unit: $/bbl)

Refining

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M/12 9M/13

101 111 107 106 116 106 106 107 108 101 106 20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200 Dubai Crude Oil Price

(Unit: $/bbl)

Q1/11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/12 Q2 Q3

106

Q4

Avg. Dec’11

106 $/bbl Avg. Dec’10

89 $/bbl

Avg. Jun’12

94 $/bbl

Avg. Dec’12

106 $/bbl

Avg. Mar’12

122 $/bbl

Avg. Sep’12

111 $/bbl

109

Avg. Mar’13

105 $/bbl

Q1/13 Q2

Avg. Jun’13

100 $/bbl

107.2 $/bbl

as of 1 Nov

Q3

Avg. Sep’13

108 $/bbl

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

100 104 107 108 107

-13-

27% 13% 7%

32%

29% 32%

41% 58% 61%

Oman Dubai Murban

Short Residue Waxy Gas/Distillates

82%

10%

8% 1%

8%

39%

19%

17%

14%

4%

Q3/13 Q3/13

Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance

Far East

Local

Middle

East

Sources of

Crude

Q3/13

1

Spread over

Dubai (US$/bbl)

-43.5

17.0

17.3

-10.7

12.4

Others

16.4

• Flexibility in crude intake allows diversification of crude types to source cheaper crude

• Flexibility in product outputs by maximizing middle distillates (jet and diesel) by

adjusting production mode to capture domestic demand and price premium

• Maximize Platformate production to capture higher margin on aromatics

• Minimize fuel oil output to avoid lower margin products

1. LPG price =

76% CP + 24%*333

$/ton

Refining

LPG

PLATFORMATE

GASOLINE

JET

DIESEL

FUEL OIL

Product

output

Domestic demand for

petroleum products*

*Source: Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy Thailand

4%

40%

11%

17%

28%

Q3/13

% S = 0.79

API = 39.7

% S = 1.54

API = 31.2

% S = 2.13

API = 30.4

Crude Assays based on

TOP configuration

Thai Oil is able to diversify its

type of crude intake and product

outputs to maximize demand

and margin

-14-

653 648 624 626 686 694 640 689 724 698 622 673 681

83% 87% 88%

79%

92% 88% 85%

89% 93% 89% 94%

88% 92%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Domestic Demand/Sales Net Export Others Utilization Rate

89% 80% 85%

11% 20% 15%

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/13

Export

Domestic

Low Seasonal Demand…Lower Domestic Sales

38%

14% 7%

1%

20%

18% 2%

Domestic

Jobbers

Q3/13

Sales

Breakdown

Export = 20%

Refinery Intake

(KBD)

280 286

Domestic Oil Demand / Domestic Refinery Intake Domestic Oil Demand

TOP’s Domestic & Export Sales

Refining

281

41%

13% 7%

2%

22%

13% 2%

Domestic

Jobbers

9M/13

Sales

Breakdown

Export = 15%

KBD Utilization = 104%

Domestic Oil Demand

KBD

-15-

(US$/Ton) Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M

P2F -$/ton 138 125 98 139 126 155 127 142 142

P2F -$/bbl 18.1 16.3 12.8 18.2 16.4 20.3 16.5 18.6 18.5

Q3/13: Strong Demand & Lower Cost…Improved Margins Aromatics Spot Prices and Margins

(US$/Ton) Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M

PX-ULG95 482 380 394 536 448 534 435 452 474

BZ-ULG95 72 84 139 336 158 303 305 249 285

123 94 136 126 132 123 134 40 43

52 31 54 59 61 27 28

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3

TL

BZ

MX

PX

TPX’s Sales & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F)

2013 Aromatics Production

Q2 Q3 9M

87% 95% 88%

(Unit : KTon)

Aromatics

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

PX

MX

ULG 95

BZ

TL

Q2 Q1/12 Q4 Q3 Q3

(US$/Ton) 448

158

PX

BZ

448

283

Q1/13

534

303

435

305

Q2

452

249

Q4TD(1 Nov)

Paraxylene (PX) + Polyester seasonal demand

+ Lower feedstock cost following

ULG 95 price

+ High PTA margin resulting in

rising operating rate

+ Tight supply as some reduced

operating rate as PX‐MX spread

was narrow

- New Chinese supply

(Tenglong) : PX 800 KTA

- High supply from olefin

crackers supporting winter

demand in Q4

- High inventory in China & US

+ SM seasonal demand together

with the restart of SM plants in

Saudi and Taiwan

Benzene (BZ)

-16-

74 66 62 57 72 62 77 42 38 32 35 40 40 43 89 108 82 88 84 88 98

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3

Bitumen

TDAE/Extract

/Slack Wax

Base Oil

(US$/Ton) Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M

P2F -$/ton 132 143 145 120 135 118 132 158 139

P2F -$/bbl 20.0 21.7 22.1 18.3 20.5 18.0 20.1 24.0 21.2

Q3/13: High Demand & Impressive Run Rate…Robust Margins

Base Oil & Bitumen Spot Prices & Margins

(US$/Ton) Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M

500SN-HSFO 500 621 497 460 519 419 494 519 477

BITUMEN-HSFO -99 -32 -41 15 -39 -19 -7 -3 -10

TLB’s Sales & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F)

2013 Base oil Production

Q2 Q3 9M

105% 112% 105%

(Unit : KTon)

Lube Base

Lube Base Oil

+Strong demand from China

+ Lower feedstock cost following

HSFO price

+ Tight supply from plant

turnaround across N.E.A.

- Arbitrage cargo from Russia

+Lower feedstock cost

following HSFO price

+Firm Indonesian &

Vietnamese demand for

paving projects.

- Slow Chinese demand due to

tight monetary policy

- Rainy season pressured

paving activities

Bitumen

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

BITUMEN

500SN

HSFO

TDAE

-39

500 SN

Bitumen

517

-24

(US$/Ton)

Q2 Q1/12 Q4 Q3 Q4TD(1 Nov)

419

-19

Q1/13

519 494

-7

Q2

519

-3

Q3

-17-

20.0 21.7 22.1 18.3 18.0 20.1 24.0 21.2 21.2

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M/12 9M/13

3.8 4.4 7.3

4.9 6.4 3.4 4.8 5.1 4.8

2.1 1.7 1.2

1.8 2.0

1.4 1.9 1.6 1.8 0.9 1.1

0.9

0.6

0.5

0.8 1.2

1.0 0.8

6.7 7.2 9.3

7.3 8.8

5.6 7.9 7.7 7.4

TOP TPX TLB GIM

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M/12 9M/13

8.7

-6.0

11.5

3.1 5.3 2.0

8.6 4.7 5.4

2.1

1.7

1.2

1.8 2.0

1.4

1.9

1.6 1.8

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.6 0.5

0.8

1.2

1.0 0.8

11.7

-3.2

13.5

5.6 7.7

4.2

11.7

7.3 8.0

TOP TPX TLB GIM

Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM

(US$/bbl) 18.1 16.3 12.8

18.2 20.3 16.5 18.6 15.9 18.5

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M/12 9M/13

4.0 4.6 7.7 5.2 6.6 3.6

5.0 5.4 5.1

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M/12 9M/13

Marketing GIM Accounting GIM

Crude

Product to Feed

Product to Feed

Marketing GRM (excluded stock gain / loss)

24% to GIM

61% to GIM

15% to GIM

(US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)

Integrated Margin

Q1/12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/13 Q2 Q3 9M/12 9M/13

-18-

**

Q3/13: Performance Breakdown

PUBLIC

5,506 1,062 666 378 97 77 61 9 7,609

(3,457) 643 244 N/A 5 (5) 21 63 (2,463)

8,415 365 332 22 15 41 14 14 9,174

NP

∆YoY

∆QoQ

32.39%

holding

74%

holding

Q3/13 Net Profit Breakdown (include stock gain / loss)

Conso.

104% 95% 112%

97% 91% 117%

85% 99%

57%

97% 87% 86% 95% 83%

135%

81%

44%

65%

Q3/13 Q3/12

Acc GRM

($/bbl)

P2F

($/ton)

P2F

($/ton)

Q3/12 12.1 98 145

Q3/13 9.0 142 158

Performance Breakdown

Stock G/(L) 3Q/13* = 3,342 MB

Net Profit excl. stock G/(L)* = 4,267 MB

*before tax

***

** Apply on an equity accounted basis in the consolidated financial statement.(GPSC has been hold by TOP 11.88% and TP 27.71% since 10 Jan 13)

***TP performance only (excluding 27.71% shares of profit from the investment in GPSC)

• TM: VLCC-Tenyo resume operation in Jul 13. NP from TOP-NYK=12 MB,TMS= 20MB

• TS: SAKC plant had 14-day turnaround in 15-29 Aug 13.

• TET: MCE had planned maintenance in 20 Sep – 5 Oct, SAP had smoothly operated

resulting higher run rate

Refinery Utilization

Aromatic Production

Lube Base Production

IPT Plant Availability

TP Plant Utilization

SAKC Utilization

Ship Utilization

Sapthip

Utilization

Mae Sod

Utilization

(Unit: million THB)

-19-

**

9M/13: Performance Breakdown

PUBLIC

5,180 2,646 1,176 850 276 161 153 46 10,407

(648) 276 (337) N/A (2) (86) (9) 190 12

Refinery Utilization

Aromatic Production

Lube Base Production

IPT Plant Availability

TP Plant Utilization

SAKC Utilization

Ship Utilization

Sapthip

Utilization

Mae Sod

Utilization

NP

∆YoY

32.39%

holding

74%

holding

9M/13 Net Profit Breakdown (include stock gain / loss)

Conso.

Acc GRM

($/bbl)

P2F

($/ton)

P2F

($/ton)

9M/12 4.9 121 140

9M/13 5.7 142 139

Performance Breakdown

Stock G/(L) 9M/13* = 1,378 MB

Net Profit excl. stock G/(L)* = 9,029 MB

*before tax

***

** Apply on an equity accounted basis in the consolidated financial statement.(GPSC has been hold by TOP 11.88% and TP 27.71% since 10 Jan 13)

***TP performance only (excluding 27.71% shares of profit from the investment in GPSC)

102% 88%

105% 90% 87%

127%

84% 80% 72%

101% 84%

100% 80% 87%

137%

90%

36%

76%

9M/13 9M/12

• TM: VLCC-Tenyo resume operation in Jul 13. NP from TOP-NYK=13 MB,TMS= 40MB

• TS: SAKC plant had 14-day turnaround in 15-29 Aug 13.

• TET: MCE had planned maintenance in 20 Sep – 5 Oct, SAP had smoothly operated

resulting higher run rate

(Unit: million THB)

-20-

306,647 335,677 (29,030)

18,104 15,937 2,167

(2,818) (1,751) (1,067)

(1,297) 1,567 (2,864)

(941) (1,053) 112

10,407 10,395 12

(US$/bbl) Q3/13 Q2/13 Q3/12 QoQ+/(-)

Marketing GRM 5.0 3.6 7.7 1.4

Marketing GIM 7.9 5.6 9.3 2.3

Accounting GIM 11.7 4.2 13.5 7.5

EPS (THB/Share) 3.73 (0.77) 4.94 4.50

THB/US$ - average 31.62 30.05 31.51 1.57

THB/US$ - ending 31.53 31.27 30.97 0.26

Effective Tax Rate (%) 7% N/A 4% N/A

5.10 5.10 0.00

30.55 31.36 (0.81)

31.53 30.97 0.56

8% 9% N/A

Consolidated Financial Performance

• In 2013, the corporate income tax rate is reduced to 20% from 23%

• redeemed BOI privilege for tax exemption on environmental projects in Q3/13 = 1,021 MB, Q2/13 = None, 9M/13 = 1,022 MB

(million THB)

Sales Revenue 108,500 93,233 106,203 15,267

EBITDA 10,453 3,255 11,653 7,198

Financial Charges (965) (987) (600) 22

FX G/(L) & CCS (249) (2,764) 989 2,515

Tax Expense* (555) (116) (386) (439)

Net Profit / (Loss) 7,609 (1,565) 10,072 9,174

Financial

9M/13 9M/12 YoY+/(-)

5.1 5.4 (0.3)

7.4 7.7 (0.3)

8.0 7.3 0.7

-21-

74,523 76,567

72,257

80,178

53,880

57,802

87,379 93,933

74,149 79,630

39,132 40,984

Strong Financial Performance

0.9 1.3

1.0

31-Dec-12 30-Jun-13 30-Sep-13

0.2 0.3 0.2

31-Dec-12 30-Jun-13 30-Sep-13

Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 30 Sep 13 1)

1) Including current portion of Long-Term Debt

Policy ≤ 1.0x Policy ≤ 2.0x

2) EBITDA 9M/13 (excl stock loss & LCM)*4/3

Financial Ratios

79,630 million THB

(US$ 2,525 million)

22,221 million THB

(US$ 705 million)

Net Debt / EBITDA2) Net Debt / Equity

Total Long-Term Debt Net Debt

Cost of Debt (Net*)

TOP Group 2.66%*

Financial

BBB

Stable Outlook

Baa1

Stable Outlook

AA-

Stable Outlook *Annualized interest expense net off interest income as per FS as at 30 Sep 13

(actual 9M/13*4/3)

As at 30 Sep 13 (31.53 THB/US$)

(Unit: million THB)

Trade Payable

/ Others

LT Debt1)

214,547 200,660

Equities

Current

Assets

Non-Current

Assets

Cash & ST

investment

30 Jun 13 30 Sep 13

Interest Rate Currency

12% Float 30% THB

88% Fixed 70% USD

96%

3% 1%

US$

Bond

62%

US$

Loan

8%

THB

Bond

26%

THB

Loan

4%

Q3 and Q4-2013 Market Outlook

• Macroeconomics & Crude Prices

• Petroleum Market

• Aromatics & Base Oil

• Conclusion

Macroeconomics & Crude Prices

Supply disruption in MENA supported price in Q3

Resume supply and negative impact from US Gov’t shutdown

pressures crude price in Q4

-24-

2014 Global GDP Growth by IMF

Macroeconomics & Crude Prices

Advanced economy countries are expected to drive world economic growth in 2014

2.8%

-0.6%

5.2% 3.9%

3.2% 2.9%

3.6%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Growth (%YoY)

China

India

Japan

Thailand

US

EU

ASEAN-5

World

** BOT inflation report latest, Oct 2013

•IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Oct, 2013

**

2012 2013* 2014*

7.7% 7.6% 7.3%

3.2% 3.8% 5.1%

2.0% 2.0% 1.2%

5.9% 3.7% 4.8%

2.8% 1.6% 2.6%

-0.6% -0.4% 1.0%

6.2% 5.0% 5.4%

3.2% 2.9% 3.6%

-25-

Global Oil Demand Growth in 2014

Macroeconomics & Crude Prices

IEA Demand (mbd)

Growth (mbd)

2012 90.00 +1.12

2013 91.00 +1.00

2014 92.12 +1.12

OPEC Demand (mbd)

Growth (mbd)

2012 88.90 +0.80

2013 89.70 +0.80

2014 90.80 +1.10

2012/2013/2014

EIA Demand (mbd)

Growth (mbd)

2012 89.29 +0.99

2013 90.26 +0.97

2014 91.43 +1.17

IEA forecasted 2014 global oil demand increases to around 1.1 mbd on stronger GDP

Unit: KBD

-540 -200 -110

Europe

1130

470 580

Asia 250 180 220

Middle East

190 140 180

Africa

230 170 140

Latin America

-330

130

-20

North America

100 120 110

FSU

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report, October 2013

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report October 2013 Source: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook October 2013 Source: OPEC, Oil Market Report October 2013

-26-

Non-OPEC Supply Growth in 2014

Macroeconomics & Crude Prices

IEA Supply (mbd)

Growth (mbd)

2012 53.40 +0.60

2013 54.60 +1.20

2014 56.37 +1.77

OPEC Supply (mbd)

Growth (mbd)

2012 50.80 +0.48

2013 51.88 +1.08

2014 53.06 +1.18

EIA Supply (mbd)

Growth (mbd)

2012 52.71 +0.65

2013 54.22 +1.51

2014 55.72 +1.50

IEA forecasted 2014 global oil supply increases around 1.8 mbd mainly from North America

Unit: KBD

2012/2013/2014

-310 -180 -70

Europe

-200

110

-180

Asia -190 -100 -30

Middle East

-320

80 230

Africa

-60

10 220

Latin America

1250 1240 1060

North America

80 170 110

FSU

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report, October 2013

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report October 2013 Source: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook October 2013 Source: OPEC, Oil Market Report October 2013

-27-

OPEC to Balance Demand/Supply

Due to increasing in Non-OPEC oil supply, OPEC crude production will drop to 29.0 MBD

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report, October 2013

Macroeconomics & Crude Prices

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2011 2012 2013 2014

OPEC Crude

OPEC NGLs

Non-OPEC Supply

Total Demand

2013 2012

Growth Rate (MBD)

2014

Well-supplied oil market in 2014 (MBD)

+0.4

+0.5

+1.1

+0.2

+1.2

+1.0

+0.3

+1.8

+1.1 OPEC Crude

Production

2012

30.3 MBD

OPEC Crude

Production

2013

30.0 MBD

OPEC Crude

Production

2014

29.0 MBD

-28-

Resume supply from Libya and Iraq in late Q3

Resume supply from Libya and Iraq in late Q3

Nigeria : 2,417 kbd

• Northern unrest led by Islamists

Algeria : 1,667 kbd

• Gas field was raid by

Islamist militants

Libya :1,600 kbd (<1,000 kbd)

• Internal Conflict

in the post - Gaddafi

• Closed oil terminal due to the protest

Sudan and South Sudan : 455 kbd

• Border disputes • Oil export via pipeline dispute

Egypt : 728 kbd (650 kbd)

• Egypt's political crisis

after Morsi period Israel : 4 kbd

• Conflict with

Palestine,

Iran, neighboring

countries

Iraq : 3,115 kbd (3.000 kbd)

• Internal dispute after

US army out

• Oil dispute with Kurdish territory

Note: Crude Oil Production from BP, 2013

Tunisia : 65 kbd

• Opposition leader assassination

• Protests across the country

• PM dissolved the parliament

Syria : 164 kbd (20 kbd)

• Internal unrest continues • Concerns over chemical weapons

Iran : 3,680 kbd (< 2,600 kbd)

• Western sanction for oil export

•Conflicts with the West and Israel due

to nuclear program

• Not yet allow IAEA to scrutinize

Parchin military site

-29-

MENA & N.SEA Supply Resume

• North Sea Production is expected to hit the year peak in Nov-13 after oil field comes back from

seasonal maintenance

• Iraq’s oil production is expected to rise 300-400 KBD

• Libyan oil production recovered to 0.7 MBD from less than 0.2 MBD in Sept-13. However, in short-

term, oil supply is volatile due to recent protest causing oil output temporary drops by 0.4 MBD

N.Sea

Iraq

Libya

-30-

In Q4-13… Crude Price in Short Term to be Sideway Down

Macroeconomics & Crude Prices

What We See…. In Q3: Ongoing MENA Unrest, N.Sea Maintenance

In Q4: Resume MENA supply and negative impact from US Gov’t

… Factors to watch for Q4’13 …

Postpone of QE tapering

Libya Instability EU/US refineries come back from maintenance in Nov-13

Impact from US Gov’t S/D & Debt Ceiling

*Estimated as of 1 Nov 13

$108

$101 $106 $105 $103

$106 $109

70

80

90

100

110

120

70

80

90

100

110

120

2011 2012 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

$/BBL $/BBL

Latest Forecast Actual

2013 Dubai $105

-31-

Government Shutdown, Debt Ceiling & QE4 Tapering Impacts

17-Day US Government Shutdown

- Reduce projected Q4-13 GDP growth by 0.6% - Destroy economic value by $24 Billion - Not solved BUT shifted to Jan 15, 2014

QE4 Tapering - Expected QE tapering will not before Q2-14

- Targets: Unemployment rate < 6.5%

Inflation > 2%

Debt Ceiling - Congressional agreement for extended borrowing authority

-Next debt ceiling deadline will be on Feb 7, 2014.

Petroleum Product Market

Higher GRM in Q3 … supported by summer & Ramadan

Stable GRM in Q4 on upcoming winter demand

Keep Watching New Supply from Jubail Refinery!!

-33-

2013-14 Refinery Status

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

KBD

AP Additional Demand ME Additional Demand

AP CDU Addition China

India Japan

Others ME CDU Addition

Net Capacity

CDU Capacity Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME

Addition KBD Company

China Q2-13 200 PetroChina Pengzhou (Sichuan)

Q4 -13 240 Sinochem Quanzhou (Fujian)

Saudi Q4-13 400 SATORP [Aramco/Total] (Jubail)

China Q1-14 120 PetroChina (Urumqi)

Q2-14 160 Sinopec (Jiangsu)

Q4-14 200 CNPC (Yunnan)

India Q1-14 120 Nagarjuna Oil (Cuddalore)

Q2-14 300 IOC Paradeep

Closure KBD Company

China Q4-13 -100 Local refinery

Japan Q1-14 -377 Tonen/ Idemitsu/ JX Nippon

China Q2/Q4 -70/-70 Sinopec (Jiangsu) / (Jiangxi)

Q4-14 -100 Local refinery

Australia Q2-14 -125 Caltex (Kurnell)

Q4-14 -105 Shell (Geelong)

Possible delay start up to Q1-14

Delay to Q3-15

CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME

Source: FACTs fall 2013

Revised to (-80)

Phase II (200 kbd) to start up end-2013

-34-

Firmer GRM on Higher Winter Demand… KEEP Watching Impact of 400 KBD Jubail refinery

- New supply from Jubail

+ Seasonal high demand

during winter

- Increasing Chinese export

quota in Q4

Factor to watch for Q4…

- Increasing gasoline

inventory in the region

+Refinery turnaround

and run cuts

+ Firm demand for Eid al-Adha holiday

- Resume exports from Taiwan

What happened in Oct…

** Compared to Q3-13

($/bbl) Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4TD-13 Q4-13*

LPG ($/t) 772 824 862

ULG95-DB 14.6 12.4 7.7

JET-DB 15.3 17.0 16.5

GO-DB 16.8 17.3 17.3

HSFO-DB -3.6 -10.7 -9.5

Note: Q4TD as of 1 Nov

-38-

What did make HSFO margin stand at a low level?

Petroleum Market

Higher fuel oil inflow from West to compare to Lower Singapore bunker sales

-40-

Firm growth thanks to active government policy

Petroleum Market

2011 2012 Q3-13 2013F

LPG +15 % +7 % -5% +5 %

Gasoline -1 % +5 % +8% +7 %

Jet/Kero +8 % 0 % +12% +6 %

Gasoil +4 % +7 % +0% +4 %

Fuel Oil - 6 % -4 % +0% - 9 %

Total (exclude LPG) +2 % +5 % + 4% +4 %

% year on year

Government is bound to

maintain30B diesel price

policy by using diesel excise tax exemption till the end of 2013.

Government has increased the

LPG retail in household sector,

0.50 Baht/kg/month since Sep 1,

2013.

Car sales in 1H-13 are rising ,

supported by 1st car policy but

the car sales in the 2nd half

tends to decline slightly.

BOT revised GDP growth in 2013

down from 4.2% to 3.7% from the

private investment deceleration and

the export contraction from China’s economy slowdown.

LPG

& “Strong demand from econ growth Factor to Watch 30 Baht diesel price policy”

Aromatics PARAXYLENE ….

Delay in New PX Capacities Help Limit Downside

-42-

($/t) Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4TD-13 Q4-13**

PX-ULG95 435 452 448

BZ-ULG95 305 249 283

TL-ULG95 138 118 135

Note: PX = Paraxylene, BZ = Benzene, TL = Toluene

Delay in New PX Capacities Help Limit Downside

** Compared to Q3-13 Note: Q4TD as of 1 Nov

Aromatics

What happened in Oct .…

+ Weak UG95 price

+ New supply delay in line with new PX plants

+ Weak UG95 price

+ Declining TL inventory in China from T/A

- Softer PX market pressure TL market

+ Weak UG95 price

+ Loss of supply from T/A in Asia

+ Weak UG95 price

+ Loss of supply from schedule

turnaround (T/A) in Asia

- Some PTA producers reduced run rate

PX:

BZ

:

+ Weak UG95 price

+ Loss of supply from T/A in Asia

TL:

+ Weak UG95 price

+ 3 million tons of new PX plants delay to Q1’14

- Further squeezed PTA margins

PX:

BZ:

TL:

Factor to Watch for Q4 ….

-44-

What You See is Not Always What You Get

“Asia PX Net Import”

Aromatics

Source: IHS and PCI Xylene&Polyesters

“PX Supply and Demand Addition In Asia”

Forecast

Higher PX Import

• Asia still needs to import PX in the next 5 years as some on-purpose units cannot run full

due to feedstock constraints.

Total Capacity Addition 18.6 MT

Total Demand Addition 17.6 MT

2012

PX production 24.6 MT

PX demand 26.8 MT

2.5 MT Growth per

year

2.1 MT Growth

per year

-45-

SM Margins Continue to Stay At High Level to Support BZ Spread

Source: IHS and Platts

• A plenty of supply disruptions in the region keep

supply to remain tight.

• Inventory level declined almost 25% compared with

last year.

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13

Asia Styrene Production Capacity Losses 2013

China JapanKorea TaiwanAustralia IndonesiaMalaysia SingaporeThailand NEA Capacity AvailabilitySEA Capacity Availability

Thousand Metric Tons Capacity Availability

• SM demand is expected to grow at 3%, whereas supply

growth will be only 2.8%, causing supply tighten.

•Consequently, BZ spread will be supported by high SM

margin in the next few years.

What made current high SM margins?

Will SM margins stay high in the medium-long term?

Demand Capacity Operating Rate

Lube Base & Bitumen

Firm base oil margin from strong demand of China

-47-

Flooding of Group II & Group III Supply

Global base oil demand remain on an uptrend, growing at 1.4% p.a., with the rising of Gr.II & III consumption.

Fuel economy and emission standard require premium base oil.

Surplus capacity of Gr.II and Gr.III in Asia Pacific (including ME) will lead to base oil price competition.

Lube Base & Bitumen

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gr.II_Capacity Gr.II_Demand

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gr.III_Capacity Gr.III_Demand

MT

MT MT

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gr.I_Capacity Gr.I_Demand

Gr.II Demand Growth = 8% Gr.III Demand Growth = 11% Gr.I Demand Growth = -2%

MT

Source : TOP Estimate, ICIS –china, Kline, Lube and grease

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan

-11

Feb

-11

Mar-

11

Ap

r-11

May-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-

11

Au

g-1

1

Sep

-11

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan

-12

Feb

-12

Mar-

12

Ap

r-12

May-1

2

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Mar-

13

Ap

r-13

May-1

3

Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3

Sep

-13

Oct-

13

Gr.II-Gr.I

Gr.III-Gr.I

Spread of Gr.II - Gr.I and Gr.III –Gr.I $/Ton

-48-

Bitumen Market

Lube Base & Bitumen

Strong HSFO price pressured on bitumen spread

High inventory in China and tight budget policy from Chinese government weighed on

imported bitumen volume

Demand from Indonesia, Australia,Vietnam and Myanmar supported bitumen market

-140

-100

-60

-20

20

60

100

140

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan

-11

Feb

-11

Mar-

11

Ap

r-11

May-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-

11

Au

g-1

1

Sep

-11

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan

-12

Feb

-12

Mar-

12

Ap

r-1

2

May-1

2

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Mar-

13

Ap

r-1

3

May-1

3

Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3

Sep

-13

Bitumen-HSFO Bitumen Price FOB Asia HSFO FOB SG $/MT $/MT

-49-

Sustained Demand from China Support Base Oil Margin

Note: Q4TD as of 1 Nov

** Compared to Q3-13

Lube Base & Bitumen

($/t) Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4TD-13 Q4-13**

500SN-HSFO 494 519 517

Bitumen-HSFO -7 -3 -24

What happened in Oct .…

+ Limited spot supply from major

plant turnarounds

+ Sustained demand from China

during oil draining season

- High FO weighed on spread

- Slow demand from Indonesia due

to rupiah depreciation

+ Resumption of paving activities

in Vietnam

- Higher fuel oil price pressured on

bitumen spread

- Squeezed margins from higher

fuel oil price

- Spot supply come back after

finished maintenance period

- High China inventory due to

tight budget control policy

Factor to Watch for Q4 ….

Conclusion Q3 & Q4-2013 : Supportive Fundamental

amid Volatile Environment

-51-

Firm Fundamental

Conclusion

“Resume Supply and Negative Impact from US Gov’t Shutdown to

Pressure Crude Price in Q4”

“Stable GRM in Q4 on Upcoming Winter Demand”

CRUDE &

REFINERY

“Firm PX Market from Ongoing Delays in New PX Capacity”

“High SM Margins and Delays in New BZ Supply Limits

Downside for BZ”

AROMATICS

“Base Oil Margin Supported By Sustained Chinese Demand But

Expected Slightly Dropped from Returned Supply

“High Inventory and Strong Fuel Oil Pressured Bitumen Margin”

LUBE BASE

-56-

Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out ,Pursuing Sustainability

Logistics

AEC countries

Value Chain Enhancement

Adjacent

Quick win

Core Business

Geography

New Business

Operational Excellence Growth (Core & Step Out)

-57-

Strategic Investment Plan

Projects COD Total

Project Cost 2013 2014 2015

After

2015

Refinery upgrading 2014 128.2 87.6

Reliability, efficiency and flexibility

improvement

- 382.9 150.0 71.8 18.4 27.2

Environmental and fuel efficiency

improvement

352.7* 196.7 60.7 10.1 0.5

CDU-3 preheat train 2014 69.9* 41.1 2.7

Benzene Derivatives - LAB 2015 300.0 100.0 150.0 50.0

Power – 2 SPPs 2016 325.6 0.5 95.4 58.4 171.3

Aframaxs / Crew boats 2013/14 46.1 21.5 10.0

Specialty-Wax 2015 35.9 17.9 17.3

Solvent expansion – SAKC 2014 60.6 32.4 19.7

Total 1,701.9 629.8 428.2 154.2 199.0

CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million)

Notes: Excluding approximately 40 M$/year for annual maintenance

*anticipated to receive BOI 100% of actual investment cost

Projects under

review/study

COD Total

Project Cost

2013 2014 2015 After

2015

Jetty 7,8 Q1-15 165.4 1.9 85.3 71.4 6.5

Our CAPEX investments will

cover improvements in

plants reliability, efficiency

& flexibility, environmental

& fuel efficiency

improvement as well as

value chain enhancement

Thai Oil has sufficient

internal cash flow to fund

this investment plan

$1,411.2m

Remaining capital investment

-58-

Project Update

Project Detail Progress

HCU Revamp:

• Phase I: PSA-3

• Phase II: HVU-2

Revamp

• Increase high purity hydrogen production to gain margin

from high sulphur crude processing

• Maximize lube base oil production while increasing

Gasoline/Jet/Diesel production

• CAPEX = 128.2 M$

• COD = 2014

• COMPLETED Basic Design

Package (BDP) & Basic

Design Engineering Package

(BDEP)

• CONSTRUCTION PHASE

(overall progress 91.0%)

Max Lube

Higher Middle Distillates

Lower Fuel oil

-59-

Project Update

Project Detail Progress

Emission

Improvement

Project (EIP)

• To control flue gas quality according to the new

emission law (New emission law limits SOX < 500

ppm from Dec 2013 onwards)

• To build spare capacity for flue gas treating unit

• CAPEX = 203* M$

• COD = 4Q2013

• CONSTRUCTION PHASE

(overall progress 91.0%)

* BOI privileges : Exemption of corporate income tax for 8

years at 100% of actual investment cost for emission

reduction projects .

-60-

Project Update

Shell & Tube Heat Exchanger Plate Heat Exchanger Tray

Project Detail Progress

CDU-3 Crude

Preheat Train

Improvement

• Set up, replace and rearrange heat exchangers in CDU-3

to reduce fuel usage

• Improve tray & equipment in CDU-3 to enhance refining

efficiency by increasing Kerosene production and Crude

intake

• CAPEX = 69.9 M$

• COD = 2Q2014

• COMPLETED Basic Design

Package (BDP) & Front End

Engineering and Design

(FEED)

• EXECUTE Engineering,

Procurement &

Construction (EPC)

(overall progress 39.0%)

-61-

Project Update

Project Detail Progress

Linear Alkyl

Benzene (LAB)

TPX JV with Mitsui

75% : 25%

• Upgrade existing Benzene and Kerosene into

higher valued product; LAB which is an

intermediate feedstock in production of

surfactant

• Capacity: 100 KTA (First Integrated LAB Plant in SEA)

• CAPEX = 400 M$

• COD = 2015

• CONSTRUCTION Phase

(overall progress 6.4%)

0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Demand Supply (Nameplate Capacity) Deficit

KTA

LAB in SEA market

Demand growth rate 3 % p.a. Net Deficit ; import from NEA

Only 1 Producer in Indonesia; Non integrated

~70% Utilization (capacity 180 KTA)

Demand in Thailand ~65 KTA (net import)

SEA Demand / Supply

Established on

11 Jul 13

KTA %

Feedstock

Kerosene (from TOP) 520 94%

Benzene (from TPX) 33 6%

Product/ By-products

LAB 100 19%

By-products (mostly Kerosene

components) (to TOP)

453 81%

-62-

Project Update

Project Detail Progress

Power Expansion

(2 blocks of SPP)

• Low risk power business enhance income stability

• To support reliability of electricity and steam supply for

TOP Group

• Develop 2 new SPP power plants = 220 MW under a firm

contract with the government

• CAPEX = 325.6 M$

• COD = 2016

• COMPLETED Front End

Engineering and Design

(FEED)

• EXECUTE Engineering,

Procurement &

Construction (EPC)

(bidding phase)

-63-

Project Update

AEC Member Countries

Market Demand (KTA)

Project Detail Progress

Solvent Expansion

(SAKC)

• To expand solvent capacity to meet the demand growth

in Thailand and the region

• Capacity increase to 141 KTA from 76 KTA

• CAPEX = 60.6 M$

• COD = 2014

• CONTRUCTION PHASE

(overall progress 77.3%)

Question & Answer

-65-

Thank You

Any queries, please contact:

at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com

Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961

Fax: 662-797-2976

Appendices

-67-

Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin

Source: EIA, Norwegian Energy, Thai Oil

Total Capacity: 4.9 MBD

85.0% 58.0% 69.5%

Total Capacity: 17.7 MBD Total Capacity: 17.0 MBD

$/bbl

SINGAPORE GRM

-68-

Crude Inventory

Source: Norwegian Energy

-69-

Global Distillate Inventory

Source: Norwegian Energy

-70-

Fuel Oil Inventory

Source: Norwegian Energy

-71-

China’s Product Export

Source: Norwegian Energy

-72-

Benchmark Product Yield

Yield

WTI CRK BRT CRK SG DB CRK SG DB

HSK

Reuters Yield Reuters

Adj F&L Reuters

Adj F&L Reuters

Adj F&L

Mogas 47% 25% 31% 10%

Naphtha - - 7% 6%

Jet 25% 25% 18% 17%

GO 11% 23% 16% 16%

FO 13% 18% 22% 46%

LPG 4% 6% 3% 3%

MTBE -2% - - -

TOTAL 98% 97% 97% 98%

-73-

Domestic LPG Demand

LPG Demand by Sector

LPG Demand Highlight

• LPG demand in Q3-13 dropped by 5%YoY

from significant reduction in feedstock

sector

• Government imposed active measures

on gas distributors selling cross

sectional LPG from household sector

to automotive sector.

• So, LGP in household consumption

declined while LPG in automotive

sector rose.

• LPG demand decreased significantly in Aug

13 led by feedstock sector

Outlook 2013

• LPG demand is expected to grow 5% which

is slightly slower than prior year as

government aims to increase retail price in

automotive and household sectors.

Thailand LPG Demand

-74-

Domestic Gasoline Demand

Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

Gasoline Demand by Grade

GASOLINE Demand Highlight

• Gasoline consumption in Q3-13 grew by

8% YoY.

• In Aug 2013, GSH portion was 92% of total

gasoline/GSH grade, led by 42% of GSH91,

36% of GSH95, 12% of E20, 8% of UG95

and 2% of E85.

• Ethanol consumption had reach a record

high in Aug-13 at 2.99 mml/day fom only

1.4 mml/day in the same period last year.

Outlook 2013

• Gasoline consumption is predicted to

robustly grow by 7% YoY thanks to the

recorded new car sale from 1st car buying

program, which was largely delivered in

1H-13.

Thailand Gasoline Demand

-75-

Domestic Jet Demand

JET Demand Highlight

• Jet consumption in Q3-13 rose by 12%

YoY in line with an increase in number of

flights as well as a rise in tourists.

• Jet consumption in Aug 13 rose by 4%

MoM correlated with the increase in

aircraft movements and tourist numbers

Outlook 2013

• TOP sees jet demand growth to be

around 6% owing to little political risk

and healthy tourism.

Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy / AOT

Thailand JET-A1 Demand

JET-A1 demand and # of flights

-76-

Domestic Gasoil Demand

GASOIL Demand Highlight

• Gas oil demand in Q3-13 rose by only

0.3%YoY from significant reduction in

industrial and electricity sector.

• Gas oil demand in Aug 13 dropped by 5%

MoM due to industrial capacity utilization

contracted by 6% MoM. As well as low

agricultural demand in rainy season.

Outlook 2013

• Gasoil demand is expected to expand 4%YoY

supported by 1st car buying program and

capped retail price at 30B/litre.

Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

NGV Demand Highlight

• NGV in Q3-13 grew robustly by 12%YoY

because of attractive retail price. Though

NGV price was partially floated, it was still

the cheapest fuel.

• Total NGV registered cars steadily grew by

2%MoM to 375K units in Aug 13

Thailand Gasoil Demand

NGV Demand

Note: Gasoline demand in Sep is based on news on 23 Oct 2013 (unofficial data)

-77-

Domestic Fuel Oil Demand

FUEL OIL Demand Highlight

• FO demand in -13 remain steady by

0.3%YoY from a rise in electricity sector.

• FO demand increased by 4% MoM from a

rise in transportation and electricity

sector by 12% and 7% respectively.

Outlook 2013

• Fuel oil demand expected to dropped by

-9% YoY as fuel oil prices pressure power

plant users to use other fuels.

Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

Thailand Fuel Oil Demand by Sector

Thailand Fuel Oil Demand

-78-

Thank You

Any queries, please contact:

at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com

Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961

Fax: 662-797-2976