texas housing insights

TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHTLUIS B. TORRES

RESEARCH ECONOMISTJAMES P. GAINESCHIEF ECONOMIST WAYNE DAY

RESEARCH ASSOCIATE

WESLEY MILLERRESEARCH ASSISTANT TR T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T

F E B R U A R Y 2 0172 1 2 0

Contents

AboutthisReport..............................................................................................................3

December2016Summary.................................................................................................4

Supply..............................................................................................................................6

ResidentialConstructionCoincidentandLeadingIndicator............................................................7

Single-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits...................................................................................7

MajorMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits............................................................8

BorderMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits...........................................................8

HousingStarts..................................................................................................................................9

TotalNewPrivateSingle-FamilyConstructionValue.......................................................................9

VacantDevelopedLots...................................................................................................................10

MonthsofInventory......................................................................................................................10

MajorMetrosMonthsofInventory...............................................................................................11

BorderMetrosMonthsofInventory..............................................................................................11

Demand..........................................................................................................................12

HousingSales.................................................................................................................................12

MajorMetrosHousingSales..........................................................................................................12

BorderMetrosHousingSales.........................................................................................................13

30-YearMortgageRateand10-YearBondYield............................................................................13

TexasHomesDaysonMarket........................................................................................................14

MajorMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket..............................................................................14

BorderMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket............................................................................15

MajorMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket...................................................................................15

BorderMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket.................................................................................16

Prices.............................................................................................................................16

UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeAverageSalesPrice...........................................................16

TexasExistingandNewHomeAverageSalesPrice........................................................................17

MajorMetrosExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice.........................................................................17

BorderMetrosExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice........................................................................18

MajorMetrosNewHomeAverageSalesPrice..............................................................................18

BorderMetrosNewHomeAverageSalesPrice.............................................................................19

2

UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice............................................................19

TexasExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice........................................................................20

MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice..........................................................................20

BorderMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice.........................................................................21

MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice...............................................................................21

BorderMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice..............................................................................22

TexasHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot..................................................................................22

MajorMetrosExistingHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot........................................................23

BorderMetrosExistingHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot.......................................................23

MajorMetrosNewHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot.............................................................24

BorderMetrosNewHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot...........................................................24

TexasHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot...................................................................................25

MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot.........................................................25

BorderMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot.......................................................26

MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot..............................................................26

BorderMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot............................................................27

TexasHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio.......................................................................................27

MajorMetrosExistingHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio............................................................28

MajorMetrosNewHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio.................................................................28

3

AboutthisReport

RealEstateCentereconomistscontinuouslymonitormanyfacetsoftheglobal,national,andTexaseconomies.TexasHousingInsightisasummaryofimportanteconomicindicatorsthathelpdiscerntrendsintheTexashousingmarkets.

ThismonthlypublicationprovidesdataandinsightsontheTexashousingmarkets.Wehopeyoufindthemuseful.Yourfeedbackisalwaysappreciated.Sendcommentsandsuggestionstoinfo@recenter.tamu.edu.

Dr.JamesGaines,Dr.LuisTorres,WayneDay,andWesleyMiller

Data current as of January 30, 2017

© 2017, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.

4

December2016Summary

TheTexaseconomyexpandedinDecemberasenergyandhousingmarketsadvanced,andtheoutlookonoveralleconomicconditionsinTexasincreasedfromNovember.Totalnonfarmemploymentexpanded1.8percentyear-over-year,comparedto1.4percentgrowthnationally.Employmentgrowthwasspurredbytheservice-providingsectorwhereeducationalandhealth,leisureandhospitality,andgovernmentservicejobsrealizedmostofthegains.Demandforhousingweatheredrisingmortgagerates.Housingpricesfurtherappreciatedasstrongdemandovertookmodestsupplyincreases.Monthsofinventoryanddaysonthemarketremainedrelativelylow.Totalbuildingpermitsincreasedoverthemonthandyear.Nevertheless,thecoincidentandleadingindexessuggestaslowdowninresidentialconstruction.Withinterestratesexpectedtorisein2017,salesintheshort-termmaypullback,buthomepricesareexpectedtokeepincreasing.

Supply

TheTexasResidentialConstructionLeadingIndex(RCLI),whichsignalsfuturedirectionalchangesintheresidentialconstructionbusinesscycleofsingle-andmultifamilyhousing,declinedinDecember.TheRCLIwasnegativelyaffectedbyamonthlydeclineinhousingstarts.TheTexasResidentialBusinessCycle(Coincident)Index,themeasureofcurrentconstructionactivity,alsodeclinedasinflation-adjustedresidentialconstructionvaluescontinuedaslidebeguninMay2016.TheRCLIindicatesslowergrowthinfutureresidentialconstructionwhilethecoincidentindexregisteredaslowdownincurrentactivityalreadyunderway.Housingstartsdecreased13.2percentseasonallyadjustedyear-over-yearinDecembercontinuinganegativetrendthatstartedinlate-summer2016.

Housingstartsarepositivelyrelatedwithconstructionpermitsandlagtheirmovementsbysomemonths.Single-familyhousingconstructionpermitsstatewideincreasedduringDecemberbothonanannualandmonthlybasis.Austincontinuedtogrowatanacceleratedrateafterreachingatroughinmid-2015.Dallasmaintainedanupwardtrendandgrew10.5percentseasonallyadjustedyear-over-year.FortWorthandSanAntonioended2016withaconsistentclimbinhousingconstructionpermitsthatoccurredthroughouttheyear.Houstoncontinueditsslowrecovery,closingtheyearwithslightlyfewerhousingconstructionpermitsrelativeto2015.Despiteslowgrowth,Houstonstillledthenationinthenumberofsingle-familypermitsissuedmonthlyat2,568;Dallas-FortWorth(2,327)andAustin(1,144)rankedsecondandsixthnationally.Inthefourthquarter,thesupplyofvacantdevelopedlotsincreasedinDallas,Houston,andSanAntonioforhomeswithasalespriceover$200,000.Theoverallsupplyoflotscontinuedtolagbehindthedemandfornewhousing.

MonthsofInventoryofTexashousesforsalesettledat3.6months(seasonallyadjusted),indicatingcontinuedstronghousingdemandandtightsupply.Thenationrestedat4.3months,suggestingconstrainedsupplymaypersistnationally(around6.5monthsofinventoryisconsidered

5

abalancedhousingmarket).Overall,supplyhasbeenrestrictedduetolimitedlotinventoryandconstructionlaborshortages.

Demand

InDecember,totalhousingsalesinTexasreturnedtomoremutedlevelsafterastrongNovember.Salesgrewjust0.6percentyear-over-year(seasonallyadjusted).Nationally,totalhousingsalescontractedmarginallyat0.1percentyear-over-year.ThemajormetrosinTexastrendedbacktomodestsaleslevels.Year-over-yeargrowthrateswere3.9percentforAustin,negative4.7percentforDallas,negative1.4percentforFortWorth,3percentforHouston,and8.4percentforSanAntonio.InNovember,homebuyersmayhaveexpeditedpurchasespriortointerestrateincreases;therefore,salesnormallyoccurringinDecembercouldhavebeenpulledintothepriormonth.Employmentandincomegrowth,aswellasconsumerconfidence,contributedtoincreasedTexashousingsales.Consumerconfidencefavoredtheeconomy’ssustainedpost-electionsurgeandtaxreliefexpectations.

InterestratesroseinDecemberasinflationandinflationexpectationsincreasedduetopossiblefuturefederalgovernmentpolicychanges.TheFederalHomeLoanMortgageCorporationincreased43basispointstoa4.20percentaveragerateona30-yearfixed-ratemortgage,reachingapeaknotseensinceApril2014.Theten-yearU.S.Treasurybondyieldalsomovedtoitshighestpointsince2014,risingfrom2.14inNovemberto2.49percentinDecember.

ThenumberofdaysthatexistingandnewhomeswereonthemarketduringDecemberremainedlowat53and92days(seasonallyadjusted),respectively,reflectingconstrainedsupplyandcontinuedstrongdemand.ThisstabilitywasreflectedintheexistinghomemarketsfortheTexasTrianglemetros,whilethenewhomemarketsexhibitedslightlymorevolatility.Thenumberofdaysonthemarketfornewhomesincreasedyear-over-yearby15.8percentinFortWorth(85) and3.1percentinHouston(99),anddecreasedby7.3percentinSanAntonio(83).ThemarketsinAustin(105) andDallas(79)wererelativelyconstantinyear-over-yearcalculations.

Prices

Overall,salespriceshaverisensteadilyinTexassincelate2011.ExistinghomepricesincreasedthroughDecemberinthestateandmajormetros.TheaverageandmediansalespriceofanexistinghomeinFortWorthincreasedby10percentand13percentseasonallyadjustedyear-over-year,respectively.TheaveragesalespriceinAustin,Dallas,andHoustongrewmorethan5percentoverthesameperiod.SanAntoniolaggedwithyear-over-yeargrowthsettlingjustabove0.5percent.Similarly,newhomesalesperformedbetterinAustin,Dallas,andFortWorththanSanAntonioandHouston.AveragesalespricesonnewhomesinFortWorthsurged21percentyear-over-year,whileDallas’gainsweremoremodestat8percent.AustinwasthehousepriceappreciationleaderthroughDecember2016withexistinghomepricesremainingwellabovetheothermajormetros.Austinclearlyleadsthemajormetrosintermsofpricepersquarefootforbothnewandexistinghomes.TheaveragenewandexistinghomesinAustinare$50and$30morepersquarefoot,respectively,thanhousesinothermajorTexasmetros.Nonenergyemployment

6

growthandastrongservicessectorcausedDallas-FortWorthtoregisterstrongpriceappreciationinDecember.ExistinghomepricesinHoustoncontinuedtorecoverfollowingtheenergysectordeclinewhilenewhomepricesarestilllagging.

Thedifferencebetweentheinitiallistingpricetotheactualsalespricefornewhomesfellatthestartof2014andflattenedoutasthedemandfornewhomeseased.Thegapbetweennewandexistinghomesales-to-priceratiohasconvergedat0.96.

Since2011,newhomepriceshaveexceededexistinghomepricesby47percentand37percentbasedonmedianandaveragesalesprices,respectively.Thispricedifferentialresultsprimarilybecauseofincreasesinhomesizefornewerhomesandthesignificantincreasesinconstructionandlandcostsfornewhomes.TheaveragepricepersquarefootforanewhomeinTexaswasapproximately19percentmorethanforanexistinghome.

7

Supply

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversityandFederalReserveBankofDallas

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6Oct-16

TexasCoincidentIndex

UnitedStatesCoincidentIndex

TexasLeadingIndex

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6Oct-16

UnitedStates Texas

Single-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits(IndexJan2007=100)

ResidentialConstructionCoincidentandLeadingIndicator(IndexJan2007=100)

8

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.FortWorthismissingdataforSomervellCounty.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6Oct-16

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington

Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand

SanAntonio-NewBraunfels

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6Oct-16

Brownsville-HarlingenElPasoLaredoMcAllen-Edinburg-Mission

MajorMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits(IndexJan2007=100)

BorderMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits(IndexJan2007=100)

9

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandBankofTokyo-MitsubishiUFJ

Note:Inflationadjusted.Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Source:DodgeAnalytics

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6Oct-16

UnitedStates Texas

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6Oct-16

TexasAustin-RoundRockDallas-FortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels

HousingStarts(IndexJan2007=100)

TotalNewPrivateSingle-FamilyConstructionValue(IndexJan2007=100)

10

Source:Metrostudy

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.MonthsofinventoryfortheUnitedStatesisestimatedusingweightsforallexistinghomesandnewsingle-familyhomes;newnon-single-familyhomesarenotincluded.Texasincludesallexistingandnewhomes.Sources:U.S.CensusBureau,NationalAssociationofRealtors,andRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1Q03

3Q03

1Q04

3Q04

1Q05

3Q05

1Q06

3Q06

1Q07

3Q07

1Q08

3Q08

1Q09

3Q09

1Q10

3Q10

1Q11

3Q11

1Q12

3Q12

1Q13

3Q13

1Q14

3Q14

1Q15

3Q15

1Q16

3Q16

Austin Dallas

Houston SanAntonio

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6Oct-16

UnitedStates Texas

MonthsofInventory(Months)

VacantDevelopedLots(Index1Q2003=100)

11

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6Oct-16

Austin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels

4.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.013.014.015.016.017.0

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6

Oct-16


MajorMetrosMonthsofInventory(Months)

BorderMetrosMonthsofInventory(Months)

12

Demand

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.SalesfortheUnitedStatesincludeallexistinghomesandnewsingle-familyhomes;newnon-single-familyhomesarenotincluded.Texasincludesallexistingandnewhomes.Sources:U.S.CensusBureau,NationalAssociationofRealtors,andRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

Note:SeasonallyadjustedsalesreportedbyMLSanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6Oct-16

UnitedStates Texas

556065707580859095100105110115120125130

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6Oct-16


MajorMetrosHousingSales(IndexJan2007=100)

HousingSales(IndexJan2007=100)

13

Note:SeasonallyadjustedsalesreportedbyMLSanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

Note:Seasonallyadjusted.Sources:FederalHomeLoanMortgageCorporationandFederalReserveBoard

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-0

9Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6Oct-16


1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Mortgage Bond

BorderMetrosHousingSales(IndexJan2007=100)

30-YearMortgageRateand10-YearBondYield(Percent)

14

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

ExistingHomeDaysonMarketNewHomeDaysonMarket

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16


MajorMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

TexasHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

15



50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

Brownsville-Harlingen ElPasoLaredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

Austin-RoundRock Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand


BorderMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

MajorMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

16


Prices

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

Brownsville-Harlingen ElPasoLaredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

380,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

ExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice

NewHomeAverageSalesPrice

BorderMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeAverageSalesPrice($)

17



170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

330,000

350,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

ExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice

NewHomeAverageSalesPrice

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

325,000

350,000

375,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16


TexasExistingandNewHomeAverageSalesPrice($)

MajorMetrosExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice($)

18



110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16


200,000220,000240,000260,000280,000300,000320,000340,000360,000380,000400,000420,000440,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16


BorderMetrosExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice($)

MajorMetrosNewHomeAverageSalesPrice($)

19


Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16


160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

ExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice

NewHomeMedianSalesPrice

BorderMetrosNewHomeAverageSalesPrice($)

UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

20


Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.

Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

ExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice

NewHomeMedianSalesPrice

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16




MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

TexasExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

21



80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16


170,000

210,000

250,000

290,000

330,000

370,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16


BorderMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

22



110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

Brownsville-Harlingen ElPaso

Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

7580859095100105110115120125130135

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

ExistingHomeAveragePricePSF

NewHomeAveragePricePSF

BorderMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

TexasHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)

23



60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16


55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

Brownsville-Harlingen

ElPaso

Laredo

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

MajorMetrosExistingHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)

BorderMetrosExistingHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)

24



80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16




75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

Brownsville-Harlingen

ElPaso

Laredo

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

MajorMetrosNewHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)

BorderMetrosNewHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)

25



70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

ExistingHomeMedianPricePSF

NewHomeMedianPricePSF

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington



MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

TexasHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

26



55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

Brownsville-Harlingen ElPaso

Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16


BorderMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

27



70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16


0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

ExistingHomeSale-to-ListPriceRatio

NewHomeSale-to-ListPriceRatio

TexasHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio(%)

BorderMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

28



0.90

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington



0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Sep-16

Nov-16

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington



MajorMetrosExistingHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio(%)

MajorMetrosNewHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio(%)

i

ADVISORY COMMITTEE

MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL

Texas A&M University 2115 TAMU

College Station, TX 77843-2115

http://recenter.tamu.edu 979-845-2031

DIRECTOR

GARY W. MALER

MARIO A. ARRIAGA Conroe

ALVIN COLLINS Andrews

JACQUELYN K. HAWKINS Austin

BESA MARTIN Boerne

RUSSELL CAIN, CHAIRMAN Port Lavaca

DOUG JENNINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN Fort Worth

TED NELSON HoustonDOUG ROBERTS AustinC. CLARK WELDER San AntonioBILL JONES, EX-OFFICIO Temple