tbr us and canada mobile operator benchmark webinar deck

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TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.

TBR’s Network Business QuarterlySM

Research Highlights and OutlookTechnology Business Research (TBR) Quarterly Webinar Series

Jan. 15, 2013

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2 TBR Quarterly Webinar Series | 1.15.13 | www.tbri.com | ©2013 Technology Business Research Inc.

NBQ 3Q12 Research Highlights and 2013 Outlook: Webinar Presenters

Michael Sullivan-TrainorNetworking & Mobility PracticeExecutive AnalystEmail: ([email protected])Twitter: @mikesulliv

Scott DennehyNetworking & Mobility Practice Senior AnalystEmail: ([email protected])Twitter: @scottdTBR

mailto:[email protected]


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TBR’s Network Business Quarterly (NBQ) reports deliver unique insight and value through in-depth analysis in a concise, consumable format • TBR reports are unique for their deep holistic

analysis of leading operator businesses.

• Financial modeling and TBR insights help customers gain a better understanding of operator business models.

• TBR reports and webinars are responsive to client timelines, clear and concise, and provide insights across multiple layers of an operator’s organization and infrastructure.

• TBR’s strategic assessment provides an impartial check on an operator’s progress in its strategic objectives.

NBQ 3Q12 Research Highlights and 2013 Outlook: Webinar Overview

TBR Network Business Quarterly Portfolio

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LTE deployment, shared data plans and a shift toward connected devices will drive subscriber growth over the next two years

NBQ 3Q12 Research Highlights and 2013 Outlook

Networking & Mobility Operator Trends entering 2013

Prepaid market saturation

Transition from subscribers to connections

Capex Investment

Prepaid

TBR


Operators will focus on connections rather than subscribers as the connected device market expands and opens up future revenue streams




Transition from subscribers to connections: Wireless business models are evolving as data capable devices and increasing data consumption will change the way operators target potential customers.

Capex Investment

Prepaid

TBR


AT&T and Verizon took an early lead in the connected device market with shared data plans that offer easy options to add devices onto the network


AT&T

Verizon

Sprint

Rogers

T-Mobile

TelusBell Mobility -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0% 21.0%

Conn

ectio

ns N

et A

dditi

ons

Connections YTY Growth

3Q12 NORTH AMERICAN OPERATOR CONNECTED DEVICES TBR

SOURCE: TBR AND COMPANY DATA

TBR


The possibility of new revenue streams in five years is endless once the connected device market is fully developed

Verizon & AT&T Shared data plans Vast device portfolios Innovative leaders

Key Verticals Utilities Healthcare Automotive Security

Future of connected devices


SOURCE: wirelessduniya.com

TBR


Prepaid operators will rely heavily on customer retention in 2013 as market saturation will result in low industry net additions



Prepaid market saturation: Diminishing net additions due to fierce competition and pricing wars are resulting in the need for consolidation.


Capex Investment

Prepaid

TBR


Prepaid net additions remained low in 3Q12 as positive gains by Tier 1 operators were offset by losses from the perennial Tier 2 prepaid leaders


Verizon

Sprint

AT&T

Rogers

T-Mobile

Telus

Bell Mobility

U.S. Cellular

Cincinnati Bell

MetroPCS

Leap Wireless

(450,000)

(300,000)

(150,000)

-

150,000

300,000

450,000

600,000

-20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

Prep

aid

Subs

crib

er N

et A

dditi

ons

Prepaid Subscriber YTY Growth

3Q12 NORTH AMERICAN OPERATOR PREPAID MARKET TBR


TBR


The need for consolidation is evident in the prepaid market as some operators are failing to add new subscribers in a competitive market

Prepaid Leaders T-Mobile Verizon Sprint

Prepaid Laggards MetroPCS Leap Wireless

Future Implications Consolidation Pricing wars


TBR


Capex spend will remain dedicated to LTE in 2013, yet will include higher investments toward Wi-Fi and small cells to boost network capacity





Capex Investment: Although 2012 wireless capex investment was driven primarily by LTE network upgrades, 2013 will see investment in additional areas to boost network coverage and capacity.

Prepaid

TBR


LTE deployments led to high capex spend in 3Q12 among the T1 U.S. operators as the companies battle for early adopters to boost market share


AT&T

Verizon

Sprint

Rogers

T-MobileTelus

Bell Mobility

U.S. Cellular

Cincinnati Bell

Leap Wireless MetroPCS

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

21.0%

-30.0% -10.0% 10.0% 30.0% 50.0% 70.0% 90.0% 110.0% 130.0%

Cape

x as

a %

of S

ervi

ce R

even

ue

Capex YTY Growth

3Q12 NORTH AMERICAN OPERATOR WIRELESS CAPEX SPEND TBR


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Significant spectrum deals will create a more competitive market in addition to driving capex spend past 2013

Capex Investments

LTESmall cellsWi-Fi offloadingLTE AdvancedSpectrum


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Quarterly Topics TBR Value Proposition Related Reports

LTE: Spectrum and Network Upgrades

• Explore U.S. operators’ network expansion plans to increase capacity to combat rising data usage.

• Discover how operators are refarming and reusing 2G spectrum to combat network congestion.

• Identify the vendors landing network upgrade deals.• Evaluate the latest spectrum deals throughout the industry to

determine which operators are well positioned for growth.

AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile, Clearwire

Connected Devices

• Analyze operators’ different strategies to market and promote connected device growth.

• Discuss the industry’s upcoming shift from subscribers to connections.

• Identify revenue streams that will open up due to connected device growth.

AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile, Clearwire

Wi-Fi/Small Cells • Identify the status of operators unloading traffic onto Wi-Fi

networks.• Assess which operators are planning small-cell deployments and

which type of small-cell solutions are being considered.

AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile

Plan Pricing: Shared Data vs. Unlimited Data

• Explore LTE pricing.• Compare the success of shared data plans and unlimited data plans

to determine which will be more successful in the future.• Analyze initial adoption of shared data plans to measure success

thus far.

AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile

LTE deployment, shared data plans and a shift toward connected devices will drive subscriber growth over the next two years

TBR Networking & Mobility Practice Syndicated Topics 4Q12: Mobile Operators

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Questions?


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For further information, please contact:

Kate Price James McIlroyNMP Practice Manager Vice President, [email protected] [email protected]

NBQ 3Q12 Research Highlights and 2013 Outlook: Webinar Presenters

Michael Sullivan-TrainorNetworking & Mobility PracticeExecutive AnalystEmail: ([email protected])Twitter: @mikesulliv

Scott DennehyNetworking & Mobility Practice Senior AnalystEmail: ([email protected])Twitter: @scottdTBR

@TBRInc

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TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.

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