tbm cost estimate

Power Upgrade Project SNS1

September 21-22, 2005

TBM Cost Estimate

Cost Estimate Schedule Approach

Tom Mann

October 27, 2005



Cost Estimate Approach• Identify Scope

• Develop Work Breakdown Structure and WBS Dictionary

• Develop cost estimate

• Establish cost contingency needs based on risks

• Establish a cost range

• Develop resource-loaded schedule

Identify Scope

SNSPower

Upgrade3.0

R&D3.1

ProjectSupport

3.2

AcceleratorSystems

3.3

TargetSystems

3.4

FacilitiesConstruction

3.5

Pre Operations3.6



Work Breakdown Structure



Cost Estimate Approach

Cost Estimate Guidelines base on ITER

• Guidelines for Assembling the Cost Estimate, Schedule and Risks for Submittal of CD-1 for SNS Power Upgrade Project

• Objective: In support of the CD-1 decision planned for Fall 2005, it is necessary to develop and assemble a sustainable, reviewable cost estimate, schedule, and risk analysis for the SNS Power Upgrade Project (PUP). Your input to support this objective is needed no later than June 30.

• Background: On November 23, 2004, the Statement of Mission Need for Spallation Neutron Source Proton Beam Power Upgrade Non-Major Systems Acquisition was approved and stated: “The TPC (Total Project Cost) for an SNS power upgrade project has been roughly estimated to be in the $120 – 160 million range.” The document further states that there is “reasonable confidence in this range.” While the requirement for CD-1 is still for an estimate range, the level of detail to support the range must be greater than what currently exists.

• In general, your estimate must be defendable at an External Independent Review. The estimate should be realistic with a 50% confidence level, that is, there is a 50% chance that the actual costs will be either higher or lower than the cost estimate. In other words, provide your currently best available cost estimate without contingency. Contingency will be added separately based on your input. The cost estimate developed for CD-1 will be maintained under configuration control and serve as the basis for future updates and revisions. Our estimating approach must include backup details adequate to support the WBS level presented in the External Independent Review. Detailed cost estimate sheets (attachment 3) are provided to capture this backup detail information.




WBS/Title:3.3.4.1.2 HEBT/Linac Dump Design

COSTING BY / DATEHechler/03-18-05

FY_05_year's dollars

TRAVEL

WBS # Item #Schedule Activity ID DESCRIPTION QTY UNITS

$ / UNIT (unburdened)

PACKAGING & SHIPPING $ TOTAL-$ HRS

$/HR (Unburdened) TOTAL-$ $$ BASIS CODE LABOR CODE

ACQUISITION CODE

RESOURCE CODE

PARTICIPANT CODE

UNBURDENED COST COMMENTS/ASSUMPTIONS

-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

subtotal -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Sales Tax $

Indirects: Industry markups Indirects $ $

Overhead: DOE Laboratory markups Overhead $0 $0 $0

-$ -$ -$ -$

Contingency Technical Risk 0-15 Contingency Technical Risk Weight 1,2,4

Contingency Cost Risk 0-15 Contingency Cost Risk Weight 1,2,4

Contingency Schedule Risk 0-15

Unknown Unknowns __%

BURDENED, UNESCALATED COST

SNS Power Upgrade Project

MATERIAL/EQUIPMENT LABOR COST CODES



Cost Estimate Summary by WBS

$k, Escalated, burdened



Element of Cost by WBS



Estimate by Phase

Sum of Budgeted Cost ($k, escalated, burdened)

Phase Total

Integration 14,538

Design 9,692

Procure/Fab 63,929

Installation 9,387

Testing 4,168

Software 1,601

Construction 8,352

Commissioning 195

R&D 8,187

Project Support 7,813

Total 127,862



Cost Range



SNS Power Upgrade Project Preliminary Summary Schedule

Legend

MilestoneSummary Activity

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Research & Development

Critical Decision Milestones

Design

31Mar11

0

Procurement & Fabrication

Installation & Testing

Integrated Testing & Commissioning

2a

2b

3a

1

3b

4

# Critical Decision Milestone

CD-0 Mission Need

CD-1 Alt Select & Cost Range

CD-2a Approve Long Lead Procurement Budget

CD-2b Approve Performance Baseline

CD-3a Start Long Lead Procurements

CD-3b Start Construction

CD-4 Project Closeout

Cryomodule Production Design Review

Start Cryomodule & IRP Installation Complete Cryomodule

& IRP Installation

Start Commissioning

Issue Cryomodule Purchase Order

Start Cryomodule Production

Receive 1st Cryomodule Receive Last

Cryomodule

Issue Cryomodule RFP

Ion Source

Injection Stripper Foil

Hg Target

Complete IRP Procurements

Facility Shutdown



Schedule Summary

• Summary Schedule Contains Ninety (90) Activities

• Detailed Schedule Contains Over Six Hundred Fifty (650) Activities



Budget Authority by Fiscal Year

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

BCWS 1,025 2,923 15,240 44,761 31,885 27,853 4,175

Contingency + commitments

BA 1,000 1,500 24,000 47,500 47,000 26,250 12,750

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

-25 -1,423 8,760 2,739 15,115 -1,603 8,575




• Suggested Plan– Detailed week to week plan to meet March 06 Cost Review– Document Scope

Parameters List Conceptual Design Report Focus on Deliverables

– Input existing cost estimate data base into ITER format Complete Base Cost Estimate Establish Cost Range

– Risk Assessment– Contingency Analysis– Schedule with Critical Path– Resource Load Schedule– External Review Committee

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