Taiwan’s 2008 Presidential Elections:An Analysis of What Happened, and What May Happen Next

by David B. Kopel

IP-3-2008April 2008

13952 Denver West Parkway • Suite 400 • Golden, Colorado 80401-3141 www.IndependenceInstitute.org • 303-279-6536 • 303-279-4176 fax

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Executive Summary:

• OnMarch22,2008,thevotersofTaiwangavealandslide58%victorytoMaYing-Jeou,thepresidentialcandidateoftheKMT(Kuomintang,or“NationalistParty”).

• TheincumbentPresident,ChenShui-Bian,wasterm-limited,butmanyvotersneverthelessappearedtobeexpressingalossofconfidenceinhisparty,theDPP(“DemocraticProgressiveParty”).

• Inparticular,votersweredismayedbyDPP’spoormanagementoftheexecutivebranch,andbythecorruptionscandalsinvolvingthePresident’sfamily,whichunderminedtheDPP’sreformistreputation.

• Inaddition,theKMTpresentedamuchmoreattractiveandenergeticcandidatethanithadinthe2000and2004presidentialelections,whichtheDPPwon.

• VoterswereveryconcernedaboutTaiwan’seconomicslowdown.

• Votersalsoheededthestronganti-DPPmessagesentbytheUnitedStatesgovernment,whichhascriticizedtheDPPforsupposedlyprovokingChinabytakingsmallstepstowardsformalindependence.

• GiventhatTaiwanalreadyisalreadyindependentandsovereignineverypracticalsense,thevotersappeartohavemadeapragmaticdecisiontomendrelationswiththeU.S.,whosemilitaryistheultimateguarantorofTaiwan’spresent-daydefactoindependence.

• Notably,theKMT’sMaensuredhisvictorybypromisingtobeavigorousdefenderofTaiwan’ssovereignty.

• Overthelasteightyears,theDPPhasledanappropriatecampaigntostrengthenTaiwan’snationalconsciousness.Ironically,itwasMawhotookthebestadvantageofTaiwanconsciousness,byrunningacampaigntoappealbroadlytoallTaiwanese,asopposedtotheDPP’stacticsofappealingtoethnicresentments.

• OnceMatakesofficeonMay20,hewillfaceformidablechallengesindealingwiththecorruptoldguardoftheKMTparty,whichdominatesTaiwan’slegislature.AgreatdealmustbedonetostrengthenTaiwan’sdefensecapabilities.

• Ratherthanbeingintimidatedby“theriseofChina,”theUnitedStatesandTaiwanshouldrecognizethatevenpowerfuldictatorshipscanbeinherentlyfragile.ThelongtermobjectiveoftheU.S.-TaiwanallianceshouldbemaintainingTaiwan’ssovereignty,andsearchingforwaystohelprestorethesovereigntyoftheChinesepeoplethemselves,aswellthesovereigntyofthecaptivenationscurrentlyimprisonedintheChineseempire.

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Whatdoyoucallapoliticalpartythatlosesthepresidencyina17pointlandslide,twomonthsafterhavingbeentrouncedinthelegislativeelections?Avictimofitsownsuccess.Atleastthat’sthestoryinTaiwan,wheretherecentdefeatsoftheDemocratic

ProgressiveParty(DPP)demonstrate,ironically,theDPP’slong-termsuccessinchangingTaiwan’snationalconsciousness.

The Rise of the Democratic Progressive PartyTheDPPcametopowerin2000,astheresultofTaiwan’sseconddirectpresidentialelection.ChenShui-Bianwontheelectionwithonly39%ofthevote,thankstoasplitbetweentherulingKuomintang(NationalistParty,KMT)anditsally,thePeople

FirstParty.TheKMThadruledTaiwaneversincetheU.S.gaveTaiwantotheRepublicofChina,followingtheJapanesesurrenderthatendedWorldWarII.TaiwanhadlastbeeninChinesehandsin1895,whentheChineseQingDynasty(withoutaskingthepeopleofTaiwan)hadcededtheislandtoJapanese,andtheJapanesehadcrushedtheeffortsoftheTaiwanesetoestablishanindependentrepublic.

In1945,mostofChinawasruledbyChiangKai-Shek,whowasalsotheheadoftheKMTparty.Again,theTaiwanesewerebrutallyrepressed,mostnotablyinthemassacresofthousandsofpeoplethatbeganonFeb.28,1947(knowninTaiwanas“the2-2-8incident”).AfterlosingtheChinesecivilwartoMao,Chiang,alongwithhisarmy,apparatchiks,andothersupporters,fledtoTaiwan,wheretheyestablishedadictatorshipwhichruledtheislandfordecades,imposingtheWhiteTerrorinthe1950s,whichaimedtoeliminatenotonlyCommunistsubversion,butalsotheeffortsoftheTaiwanesemajoritytorulethemselves,ratherthansubmittoChiangandhismainlandercadres.

AsChiangKai-Shekgavewaytohisson,ChiangChing-Kuo,adegreeofliberalizationwassometimes

allowed,perhapsbecausemanyoftheyoungerChiang’sadvisorshadbeeneducatedatwesternuniversities.In1986,theDemocraticProgressivePartywasestablishedastheleadingvehicleforTaiwaneseseekingtocreateagovernmentthatrespectedpoliticalandcivilrights.TheDPPwassuccessful,asmartiallawwasliftedin1987,andtheone-partystatebegantogivewaytoamultipartydemocracywithavibrantfreepressandfreeelections.ThenationwasblessedbytheleadershipofLeeTeng-Hui,theKMTpartyheadwhoovercameoppositionwithinhisownpartyandguidedTaiwantowardsfulldemocracyinthe1990s.TodayheisjustlyreveredasthefatherofTaiwandemocracy.

The2000electionofhumanrightslawyerChenShui-Bian,alongwithVice-PresidentAnnetteLu(ahumanrightsactivistwhohadspentfiveyearsinprison)markedthefirstpeaceful,democratictransitionofgovernmentcontrolinaChinese-speakingnation. In2004,theKMTdidnotrepeatits2000mistakeofsplittingwithitsallies.Butthepartydidmakethemistakeofre-nominatingits2000candidateLienChan,widelyregardedascorrupt,andindisputablyalacklustercampaigner.TheDPP’sChen,anexcellent,fierypublicspeaker,beathimbyamere0.22%.

TheDPPanditsalliesareknownasthePan-Greencoalition,whiletheKMTanditsfriendsarethePan-Blue.ThemostideologicalpersonsoneachsideareknownasDeepGreenorDeepBlue.Aswillbedetailedbelow,MawontheelectionfortheKMTbymakinghimself,moreorless,paleGreen.

The 2008 ElectionWithPresidentChenterm-limitedandunpopular,theDPPnominatedFrankHsieh,theformerMayorofKaoshiung(alargeportcityinsouthwestTaiwan,theDPP’sstrongestregion).TheKMTwisely

What do you call a political party

that loses the presidency in a 17 point land-

slide, two months after having been

trounced in the legislative elec-

tions? A victim of its own success.

The 2000 elec-tion of human rights lawyer Chen Shui-Bian, along with Vice-President Annette Lu (a human rights activist who had spent five years in prison) marked the first peaceful, democratic tran-sition of govern-ment control in a Chinese-speaking nation.

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nominatedMaYing-Jeou(literally,HorseHero-Nine),theformermayorofTaipei,Taiwan’scapitalandlargestcity.

Onelectionday,March22,Maswepttoa58.5%to41.5%victory,carrying20of25counties,andevennarrowlycarryingKaoshiungCity.Ineverycounty(exceptforonesmallcountythatwasalready95%KMT),theKMTgained7-10%overits2004showing.Whathappened?

Onedifferencewasthatthecandidates,intermsoforatoricalskillsandcampaignenergy,wereevenlymatched,unlikein2000and2004.

Thistime,itwastheKMTthatrananissues-basedcampaign.Ratherthanpromotingapositiveagenda,muchoftheDPP’srhetoricfocusedonpersonalattacksonMaandhisfamily.Amongthecharges

werethatMa’swife(whomMametwhentheywerestudentsatHarvardLawSchool)hadstolensomenewspapersfromtheHarvardlibrary.

OnMarch16,lessthanaweekbeforetheelection,theDPPgovernment’sSecretary-GeneralattheMinistryofEducationattackedMabecauseMa’sdeceasedfatherhad,supposedly,oncehadanextramaritalaffair.Although

theDPPhadbeennarrowingthegapinthepolls,thepublicbacklashresultfromtheEducationofficial’sremarksendedtheDPP’smomentum.1

Inaddition,theKMThasastructuraladvantageofgreaterfinancialresourcesthantheDPP.InpartthisisduetotheKMT’sclosertiestobigbusiness,andtotheresourceswhichtheKMTwasabletoappropriateforitselfduringthedictatorshipoftheChiangs.

The DPP’s Corruption ProblemFarmoreseriousthanallegedtheftofnewspaperaquarter-centuryagoisTaiwan’sendemicproblemofcorruption.Everyyear,TransparencyInternationalusesavarietyofmetricstoratethedegreeof

corruptioninthenationsoftheworld.IntheTIratings,a10isthebestscore,and0istheworst.TransparencyInternational’s2007CorruptionPerceptionIndexgivesTaiwanaratingof5.7.MacaoandtheUnitedArabEmirateshadthesamescore,whileHongKongwasfarsuperior(8.3),andChinawasfarworse(3.5). Putanotherway,Taiwanisabouthalf-waybetweenentirelycleanandentirelycorrupt.Taiwanisnottheonlydemocracytoscoresopoorly,buttheratingsshowthatTaiwanhasaverydeepcorruptionproblem.

TheKMTwasnotoriouslycorrupt,andwhenMahadservedasMinisterofJusticeduringanearlierKMTgovernment,hiseffortstoprosecutecorruptionwerequashedbytheparty.

TheDPPhadwonelectionsasbyofferingitselfasthepartyofcleangovernment.Butittoofellintocorruption.ProsecutorsbroughtcrediblechargesagainstthewifeofthePresidenthimself,allegingthatshefiledfraudulentreceiptstoobtaincashfromadiscretionarypresidentialfund,andusedthemoneytobuydiamondringsandotherluxuryitems.

PresidentChen’sresponsewastoadmitthatthereceiptswerefalsified,butclaimedthatthemoneywasusedtopayforsecretdiplomaticprojects,andthatasPresident,hehadtheauthority(whichisnowherestatedinTaiwaneselaw)todeclareanythingastatesecretandpreventfurtherlegalinquiry.

BipartisantoleranceforthecultureofcorruptionwasdemonstratedattheOctober2007funeralofthegangsterChenChi-Li.Severalhigh-rankingKMTofficialsortheirrepresentativesattendedthefuneral—butsodidDPPrepresentatives.TheDPPofficialswerepayingtheirrespectstothememoryofmanwhohadservedtimeinprisonforhisroleinthe1984assassinationinSanFranciscoofan

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Rather than pro-moting a positive agenda, much of the DPP’s rheto-

ric focused on personal attacks

on Ma and his family.

Put another way, Taiwan is about half-way between entirely clean and entirely corrupt. Taiwan is not the only democracy to score so poorly, but the ratings show that Taiwan has a very deep corruption prob-lem.

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Americancitizen,HenryLiu,becauseLiuhadwrittenasharplycriticalbiographyofChiangChing-Kuo(thethen-dictatorofTaiwan,andthesonofChiangKai-Shek).

SomevoterswhohadbackedtheDPPin2000and2004concludedthattheDPPwasjustascorruptas

theKMT,andsotheyvotedfortheKMTin2008withtheexpectationthatatleasttheKMTwouldatleastgoverncompetently.

The EconomyTheDPPwasalsoblamedforslowingeconomicgrowthandrisingunemploymentduringitstenure.Betweentheparties,thedifferencesoneconomicpolicyarenotlarge,butthepartyinpowerisnaturallytheonethatbearsthebruntofvoterwrath.

Thecorporateincometaxratewasrecentlyloweredto17.5%from25%.However,thischange,modeled

onthegoodexamplesetbyIreland,whose12.5%corporateincometaxratehelpedmakeIrelandthemostprosperousnationinEurope,cametoolatetoaffecttheeconomysufficientlybeforetheelection.

Thestateenergymonopoly,TaiwanPowerCompany,losesenormoussumsbysellingelectricityandnaturalgasaccordingtogovernment-mandatedpricecaps.Pricesforwater,alsosetbythegovernment,havenotrisenfor15years,leadingtotremendouswaste,andalackofresourcesforinvestmentinwatertreatment,sothatmostofTaiwan’scitiesspewuntreatedsewageintoriversandtheocean.ThishardlyhelpsTaiwan’seffortstopromoteitselfasasiteforeco-tourismandgreenhigh-techindustry.

IntheHeritageFoundation’s2008EconomicFreedomIndex,Taiwanranks26th-bestintheworld,and6th-bestinAsia—behindHongKong,Singapore,Australia,NewZealand,andJapan.(Butfaraheadof119th-rankedChina).

TheHeritagescoresrangefrom1(nofreedom)to100(completefreedom).Taiwan’soverallratingis71.0,meaning“mostlyfree.”ThisisbasedonstrongscoresonGovernmentSize(87.8),MonetaryFreedom(83.3),TradeFreedom(86.7),andmoderatelygoodscoresonBusinessFreedom(70.7),FiscalFreedom(75.9),InvestmentFreedom(70),andPropertyRights(70).TaiwanscorespoorlyonFreedomfromCorruption(59),LaborFreedom(56.9),andFinancialFreedom(50).

AccordingtothecountryreportsectionoftheHeritageIndex,startingabusinessinTaiwantakesanaverageof48days;dismissinganemployeeforpoorperformanceislegallydifficult;andworkhourregulationsarerigid.However,neitherofTaiwan’smajorpartieshasindicatedmuchinterestinstreamliningsmallbusinessstart-ups,orinreforminglaborlaws.

Ma’smajoreconomicproposal,thoughtupbyhisVice-PresidentVincentSiew,wasfora“CommonMarket”withChina,althoughMawasquicklyforcedtoretreatfromanysuggestionofarealcommonmarket,whichwouldallowtheimportoflaborandagriculturalproductsfromChina.Ma’scurrentproposalsaresimplyallowingregulardirectairlinkswithChina,allowingextensiveChinesetourism,andallowingChinesetobuyrealestateinTaiwan.MaandHsiehbothfavoredlooseningcurrentrestrictionsonTaiwancorporateinvestmentinChina.

Thepost-electionsurgesinTaiwanstocksandthevalueoftheNewTaiwanDollarprobablyreflectexcessiveoptimismabouthowmuchtheeffecttheexpandedbusinesswithChinawillhaveontheoveralleconomy.Ashort-termpropertyboomresultingfromaninfluxofChineseinvestorsmightMakeephispromiseof6%economicgrowth(currently5.7%),andunemploymentreducedfrom4%to3%.

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Some voters who had backed the

DPP in 2000 and 2004 concluded

that the DPP was just as corrupt

as the KMT, and so they voted for

the KMT in 2008 with the expecta-tion that at least the KMT would at least govern

competently.

The post-election surges in Taiwan stocks and the value of the New Taiwan Dollar probably reflect excessive opti-mism about how much the effect the expanded business with China will have on the overall economy.

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Butinanycase,thevoterswerefedupwiththeDPP’seconomicmanagement,anddecidedtogivetheotherteamachance.Atleast,aKMTexecutivebranchshouldprovidemorepredictableregulationandlicensingthanintheDPPyears,whereveryfrequentchangesofcabinetministersandtheirsubordinatesresultedinanunstableregulatoryenvironment,withbureaucratslefttotheirpersonalwhims.Investorsseekingregulatorypermissiontostartprojectswereleftdanglingformonthsoryearswithoutfinalresponsestotheirapplications.

Preserving Taiwan’s IndependenceDuringtheDPP’spresidentialtenure,supportforso-called“re-unification”withChinahasdeclinedfromabout20%ofthepopulationto12%—roughly

thesamepercentageasthosewhothinkofthemselvesas“Chineseonly.”Taiwanisineverypracticalsenseasovereign,independentstate.Underinternationallaw,asovereigngovernmentisonewhichcontrolsadefinedterritoryandpopulation.Taiwaneasilymeetstheinternationallawdefinitionof“sovereign.”AllgovernmentaldecisionsforTaiwanaremadebyagovernmentchosenbythepeopleofTaiwan,andnodecisionsaremadebythedictatorshipinBeijing,whoseclaimsofsovereigntyoverTaiwanarewishfulthinking.

Yetmanyothergovernmentsandinternationalorganizations

pretendthatTaiwanisnotsovereign.TheresultishumiliatingforTaiwandiplomatically,andTaiwancitizensareoftenexcludedfromparticipationininternationalfora.YetTaiwanstillhasdiplomaticrelationswithmostoftheworld,underthefictionthattheseembassiesandconsulatesare“tradeandculturalrelations”offices.(Taiwanalsohasformaldiplomaticrelationswithnearlytwodozennations.)Exceptinthepretendworldofdiplomacy-speak,thepeopleofTaiwanaresovereignandindependent.

UnderChen,theDPPtookavarietyofstepstorecognizetheobvious.ThesestepsconformedtotheConfucianprinciplethatthefirststepofgoodgovernmentis“torectifytheirnames”—tocallthingswhattheyreallyare.2

Thus,theword“China”wasremovedfromsomestate-ownedcorporations.Passportsnowbeartheword“Taiwan”alongwith“RepublicofChina.”

Inaddition,effortsweremadetodismantlethepersonalitycultthatChiangKai-Shekhadcreatedforhimself.The“ChiangKai-ShekInternationalAirport”wasrenamedforTaoyuan,thecountywhereitislocated.

The“ChiangKai-ShekMemorial”—animmenseparkandmonumentinthecenterofTaipei,builtforChiangposthumouslybyhisKMTadmirers—wasrenamed“NationalDemocracyMemorialHall.”GonearetheexhibitsshowingoffChiangmemorabilia,suchashisautomobilecollection.Onthetopfloorofthememorial,theimmensestatueofChiang(seatedinaLincolnMemorial-stylepose)remains;forawhiletheairspaceintheroomwasfilledwithhundredsofdecorativekitesmadeinthetraditionofTaiwan’saboriginalpeoples.Atfloorlevel,photographsandtextdetailtheTaiwanesepeople’sstrugglefordemocracy—includingthestrugglesagainstChiang.

ThenamerectificationcampaignhasinfuriatednotonlytheKMT,butalsotheChinesegovernment.ForhowevermuchMaohatedChiang,ChiangandMaobothbelievedin“OneChina.”

Thenamerectificationcampaignreachedapeakwiththe2008referendumvote—heldonthesamedayasthepresidentialelection—forTaiwantoapplyformembershipintheUnitedNationsunderthenameof“Taiwan.”

During the DPP’s presiden-tial tenure, sup-

port for so-called “re-unification” with China has

declined from about 20% of

the population to 12%—roughly the same per-

centage as those who think of

themselves as “Chinese only.”

The name rec-tification cam-paign reached a peak with the 2008 referendum vote—held on the same day as the presidential elec-tion—for Taiwan to apply for mem-bership in the United Nations under the name of “Taiwan.”

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ThereferendumangeredtheU.S.StateDepartmentandPresidentBush,resultinginadozensterndenunciationsfrommajorU.S.officials.ThedenunciationswereavindicationofChineseCommunistPartyGeneralSecretaryHuJintao’sstrategyofusingtheUnitedStatesasaChineseproxytocontaintheTaiwanindependencemovement.WhattheU.S.hasgotteninexchange,otherthansomefavorableChinesevotesattheU.N.,isnotclear.ChinaissupposedlyhelpingwiththeNorthKoreaproblem,butthatroguestatestillhasnuclearweapons.

Ontheonehand,theexcitementoverthereferendumwasridiculous.TaiwanhasbeenapplyingforU.N.membershipeveryyearforthelast15,andlastyear’sapplicationwasmadeunderthenameof“Taiwan.”TheKMTofferedacounter-referendum,foraU.N.applicationunderthenameof“RepublicofChina”or“Taiwan”oranyother“practical”andhonorablename.NobodyattheStateDepartmentpitchedafitovertheKMT’sreferendum.Onelectionday,bothreferenda

receivedabout90%ofthevotescast,butwerenotadoptedbecausefewerthan50%ofeligiblevotersvotedonthereferenda.(Turnoutwasabout75%ofeligiblevoters,andabouthalfofthepeoplewhodidvotedidnotpickupreferendaballots,whichrequiredgoingtoaseparatetable.)

ThevotesdonotindicatethatthepeopleofTaiwandonotwanttojointheU.N.Apost-electionpollshowedthat67%supportU.N.membership.3

However,Taiwan'svotersarewellawarethatthemajordeterrenttoChineseconquestofTaiwanistheU.S.SeventhFleet,andthatastrong

relationshipwiththeU.S.isthesine qua nonforthecontinuationofTaiwan’sindependence.

TherepeatedU.S.complaintsaboutthe“UNforTaiwan”referendumcausedseriousdamagetotheDPP.TheU.N.referendumwastransparentlyanexerciseindomesticpolitics,aimedtoboostpro-DPPturnoutinthepresidentialelection.GivenChina’sU.N.SecurityCouncilveto,itwasabsolutelycertainthatTaiwanwouldnotbeadmittedtotheU.N.

De jureindependencewouldbenice,butmanyvotersapparentlyfeltthatde factoindependencewaswhatreallymattered.SoinrejectingtheDPPforpushingformalindependencetoofar,Taiwan’svoterswerenotvotingagainstindependence,butwerevoting,pragmatically,fordoingwhateverittakestomaintainthealliancewhichisthebasisoftheiractual,presentindependence.

TheConfucianprincipleof“rectifythenames”wasineffectreplacedbytheShakespearianone:“What’sinaname?”4

Maworkedeffectivelytomakehimselfthecandidateofpracticalindependence.The2004KMTcandidate,LienChan,hadtraveledtoChinain2005,wherehereceivedaroyalwelcome,establishingdirectKMTtieswiththeCommunistPartyofChina(CCP).ThereasonableperceptionamongmanyTaiwanesewasthatLienwouldreadilyselloutTaiwanforpersonalgainforhimselfandhisKMTcronies.

MahasnevertraveledtoChina.Instead,hemovedcloserandclosertowhatamountstoalightGreenposition.Afewyearsago,hehadbeensayingthat“thefutureofTaiwanshouldbedecidedbypeopleonbothsidesofTaiwanStrait.”

Afewdaysbeforetheelection,ChinesePremierWenJiabaoofferedtobegintalkswithTaiwanundertheOneChinaguideline,andsaidthat“allthe

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... Taiwan's voters are well aware that the major

deterrent to Chinese conquest

of Taiwan is the U.S. Seventh

Fleet, and that a strong relation-

ship with the U.S. is the sine qua non for the continuation of Taiwan’s inde-

pendence.

So in rejecting the DPP for pushing formal independence too far, Taiwan’s voters were not voting against independence, but were voting, pragmatically, for doing whatever it takes to main-tain the alliance which is the basis of their actual, present indepen-dence

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Chinesepeople,includingourTaiwancompatriots”shoulddecideTaiwan’sfuture.Maretorted: TheRepublicofChinaisasovereign

independentdemocraticstate.ThefutureofTaiwanshouldbedecidedbyTaiwan’s23-millionpeople,andnointerventionbythePRCistobetolerated.WhatPRCPremierWenJiabaosaidwasnotonlyrude,irrational,arrogant,andabsurd,butalsoself-righteous.AnditignoredthemainstreamopinionofTaiwan’s23-millionpeople.Wewanttoexpressourmostseriousprotest. ThesecondparagraphofthestatementaffirmedaformulawhichtheDPP’sPresidentChenhadannouncedwhenChenfirsttookoffice:

Ourpolicyhasalwaysbeen“AllforTaiwan,AllforthePeople.”Underthisspirit,wethinkthatthethreenosthathavehelpedtomaintainthestatusquo,“noreunificationwiththePRC,noindependenceonthepartofTaiwan,andnouseofforcebyeithersideoftheStrait,”canbestrepresentTaiwan’smainstreamopinionandtheneedforcross-Straitrelations.

TheonlysignificantdifferencebetweentheDPP’sapproachandMa’sstatementwasthatMasaid“RepublicofChina”ratherthan“Taiwan.”Thedifferenceisimportant,because“Taiwan”isunquestionablyanationseparatefrom“China,”whereasthe“theRepublicofChina”(whichwasfoundedin1911inChina,aftertheoverthrowofthelastemperor)isatermwhichatleasttheoreticallystillconnectsTaiwantothemainland.

AsapressreleasefromtheDPPnoted,MahadessentiallyadoptedtheDPP’sposition.

TheriotswhichbrokeoutinTibettwelvedaysbeforetheelectionwereexpectedtohelptheDPP,remindingpeopleofrepressionofoneofthecaptive

nationsintheChineseempire.(TheUigherpeople,whoalsoliveinthewestoftheChineseempire,aretreatedevenworsethanTibetans,buttheyhavenoDalaiLamatopresenttheircaseonaworldstage.)

Instead,TibetgaveMatheopportunitytoprovehistoughnessonChina.WhentheDPP’sFrankHsiehwarnedthatTaiwanmightbecomelikeTibet,Mascoffed,forasMasaid,unlikeTibet,“Taiwanissovereign.”MahadalsocalledChina’ssuppressionofTibet“savageandstupid.”

Absurdly,thedaybeforetheelection,HsiehsuggestedpostponingthevotesothatMaandhecouldstageaTibetsolidaritysit-in.Besidesbeingapatheticployofacandidatewhowasbehindinthepolls,thecallforpostponingtheelectioncouldmakeavoterwonderiftheDPPwasreallymorecommittedtoorderlydemocracythanthemodernKMT.

Indeed,inJanuary,Chenhadmusedaboutimposingmartiallaw.Atthetime,therewasavigorousdebateabouthowtodistributethereferendaballots.TheDPPwantedeveryvotertobegivenreferendaballotsatthesametimehewasgiventhepresidentialballot;theKMTwantedtomakevotersgettheballotsseparately.Undersupposedfearsthatconflictsatpollingplacesmightleadtoviolence,Chenraisedthespecterofmartiallaw,soundingmorelikeaChiangthanlikeademocraticreformer;hence,voterswhowereafraidthattheKMTmightbackslidetoitspre-democracytraditionshadmuchlessreasontotrusttheDPPasaguardianofdemocraticindependence.

Taiwan ConsciousnessIronically,thegrowthofTaiwannationalconsciousnessalsohelpedcreatetheDPP’sdefeat.Asnotedabove,thepercentageofthepopulationthatconsidersitselfChinese-onlyissmallandshrinking.ApluralityconsidersitselfTaiwanese-only,while“TaiwaneseandChineseboth”isalsoalargeshareofthepopulation.UndertheeightyearsofDPPrule,

Ma retorted: “The Republic of China is a sover-eign independent democratic state.

The future of Taiwan should

be decided by Taiwan’s 23-mil-lion people, and no intervention

by the PRC is to be tolerated.”

A plurality considers itself Taiwanese-only, while “Taiwanese and Chinese both” is also a large share of the population.

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theshiftawayfromChinaconsciousnessandtowardsTaiwanconsciousnesshasbeensignificant,andpublicdissatisfactionwithChenhimselfduringthelasttwoyearsofhistenuredoesnotappearedtohaveslowedthegrowthofTaiwanconsciousness.

Thisisahealthytrend.Forthousandsofyears,theChineseandtheaboriginalpeoplesofTaiwandevelopedseparately.Taiwanwasneverpartofthe

ancientChineseempires.Duringthe17thcentury,partofTaiwanwascolonizedbytheDutch,whowereinturndisplacedbyahalf-Japanesehalf-ChinesewarlordnamedKoXinga.KoXinga’ssonwounduponthewrongsideofaChinesedynasticwar,andsoin1675,thewesternplainsofTaiwanbecameaChinesepossession,whiletheeasternmountains,comprisingoverhalftheisland’sterritory,remainedinaboriginalhands.(Itwasnotuntil1878thattheChinesemade

evenanominalclaimtoruleeasternTaiwan,andtheiractualabilitytoexercisesovereigntytherewasnil.)

Beginninginthe17thcentury,therewasextensiveimmigrationtoTaiwanfromsouthernChina,particularlyFujianprovince,towhichwesternTaiwanwasadministrativelylinked.ThemainlanguageoftheseimmigrantsisTaiwanese,alsoknownasMinNan.OtherimmigrantsfromsouthChinaspokeadialectoftheHakkalanguage.

WhileTaiwanwastreatedasaninsignificant,barbaricfrontierbythemainlandgovernments,theimmigrantstoTaiwan,manyofwhomintermarriedwiththeaborigines,developedtheirownculturalpractices,includingfrequentrevoltsagainstthecorrupt,oppressive,andincompetentgovernorssentbymainland.5

WhenChiangKai-ShekfledtoTaiwan,heandhisarmyimposedaWhiteTerror,underwhichabout200,000Taiwanesewereimprisonedbythepolicestate.ChiangalsoforciblySinicizedTaiwan,imposing

Mandarin(thelanguageofBeijing)asthenationallanguage.Infurtheranceofhisfantasythathewouldre-conquerthemainland,Taiwan’sschoolsandmediawereforcedtoadoptapartylinethatTaiwanandthemainlandwereandalwayshadbeeninseparablepartsofOneChina.ChiangmadesimilarclaimsaboutTibetandMongolia,althoughitwasMaoin1950whoactuallyconqueredTibet(whichhadbeenasovereignnationformostofitslonghistory).OuterMongoliawassavedfromChinabyitsalliancewiththeSovietUnion.

EducationalreformsandtheconstructionofpublicmonumentsandmuseumsunderDPPhaveaimedtorecovertheTaiwaneseculturewhichwassuppressedundertheChiangdictatorship.Thede-sinicizationprojectisoneofwhichJacquesDerridamighthaveapproved:deconstructingthemythofthe“center”(China’sMandarinnameisliterally“center-nation”,zhong-guo)andempoweringthoseonthe“periphery”(Taiwanitself,andparticularlythepre-1949TaiwanesewhodidnotliveinnorthTaiwan,whichwasdominatedbythe1949mainlanders).

Taiwanconsciousnessatitsbestisabeautifulvision:apeoplelongstrivingforfreedomandself-government,andfinallyachievingit.Avibrant,outward-looking,commercialnation—confidentlyengagingwithJapanandthePhilippines(whoseouterislandsarejustasclosetoTaiwanislandasismainlandChina)andwiththebroaderworld.Innovative,freedom-loving,andorientedtointernationaltrade,Taiwanistheoppositeoftheoftenstagnant,self-satisfied,andxenophobicChina.TheNewTaiwanembracesequalityandrespectforallitspeople,whethertheybethedescendantsofaboriginesfrom5,000yearsago,orthepeoplewholeftthemainlandinsearchofabetterlifein1690orin1949,orTaiwan’snewestcitizens—

Educational reforms and the construc-tion of public monuments and museums under DPP have aimed to recover the Taiwanese culture which was sup-pressed under the Chiang dictator-ship.

Innovative, free-dom-loving, and oriented to inter-national trade, Taiwan is the opposite of the often stagnant, self-satisfied, and xenophobic China.

For thousands of years, the Chinese and

the aboriginal peoples of Taiwan

developed sepa-rately. Taiwan was never part of the ancient

Chinese empires.

Page 9

suchasthemanyVietnamesebrideswhoareraisingfamilieswithTaiwan-bornhusbands.

Sofar,sogood.Butinpractice,andespeciallyduringelectioncampaigns,thingsweredifferent.TheViewfromTaiwan,ablogwrittenbyastronglypro-DPPAmericanexpatriatelivinginKaoshiung,reportsthatin2008,theDPP’spresidentialcampaignspeechesweregivenalmostexclusivelyinTaiwanese.ThemessagetoMandarin-speakingdescendantsofthe1949mainlanderswasthattheDPPwasnotreallyinterestedinearningtheirvotes.DPPusedcodewordstopolarizeitssupportersagainstthedescendantsofthe1949immigrants.

TheViewfromTaiwanrecounted:

WenttoameetingofFAPA,the[DeepGreen]mainpro-TaiwangroupintheUS,inTaipeionThursday.Itwaspainfultowatch.SometimesIcontemplatetakingoutROCcitizenship,butthebravenewworldtheyadvocatedoesn’tincludemeormychildren—andifastrongsupporterlikemegetsthatvibe,howthentheyoungonthestreetwhochatterinadelightfullyliquidlingothatispredominatelyMandarin,withleavenofTaiwaneseandEnglish?EverypersonattheFAPAmeetwas

olderthanI,andtheywerespeakingTaiwanese.Notonespeakerortwo,butEvery.Single.One….NotoneofthosepeopletookthetimetocomposeanddelivertheirspeechinMandarin,alanguagespokenbyeveryoneintheroom—and,mindyou,alanguageunderstoodbythepeopletheymosturgentlyneedtocommunicatewith:theChinese.Of

coursetherewasnoEnglish,thelanguageoftheinternationalmedia.Brillianttoholdapresseventinalanguagethepressdon’tspeak.Yes,MandarinisthelanguageofthehatedcolonialistKMT.Yes,Mandarinwasimposedatgunpoint.Butifyouwantpeopletolistentoyou,youhavetospeaktheirlanguage.Forallitsgapingflawsanddebasedvalues,the

KMT offers this multiethnic island a multiethnic vision. The DPP and its supporters still do not. (emphasisinlastsentencesadded).

Moreover,likeU.S.Republicanpoliticianswhoin1884werestillwavingthebloodyshirtoftheAmericanCivilWar,theDPPcouldnotletanationalelectionpasswithoutmakinganissueoutofthe228incident.TheDPPwasright,inthepast,topushfortellingthetruthabout228,discussionofwhichwasillegalundertheChiangdictatorship.

Butaterriblecrimeperpetratedin1947isnotmuchreasontovoteforsomebodyin2008.Nobodywhowasresponsiblefor228wasonthe2008ballot.Indeed,MaYing-Jeouhadnotevenbeenbornin1947.Nevertheless,inhisroleasaKMTleader,heapologizedfor228.Forsomevoters,thiswasgoodenough,andcontinuedattentiontothegrievancesofthepastwaslessimportantthanchoosingaPresidentwithplanstomoveTaiwanforward.

ItwastheDPPgovernmentwhichcreatedaCouncilforHakkaAffairs,aHakkachannelonthePublicTelevisionService,andHakkaStudiescoursesinuniversities.YetitwasMa,whospeaksexcellentHakka,whospentweekscampaigningintensivelyinHakkaareas,speakingthelocallanguage.OfcourseMaandhisrunning-mateVincentSiewalsocampaignedinMandarin,theonelanguagethateveryoneinTaiwanunderstands.WhowasthebestcandidateforavotercommittedtoTaiwanconsciousness?Thecandidatewhosepartypanderedtointra-islandethnicdivisions,ortheonewhoworkedhardforthevotesofallthepeople?

Future ProspectsIthasbeenremarkedthatperhapstheDPP’sgreatestaccomplishmenthasbeenmakingtheKMTgreener.Longbeforethe2000election,politicalcompetitionfromtheDPPhadforcedtheKMTtogovernbetter.VisitorswhorememberwhatTaiwanwaslikeinthe1960sareimpressedwiththetransformationofugly,

...the KMT offers this multiethnic

island a mul-tiethnic vision.

The DPP and its supporters still

do not.It has been remarked that perhaps the DPP’s greatest accomplishment has been making the KMT greener.

Page 10

filthycitiesintoclean,vibrantmetropoliseswithparksandexcellentmasstransit. President-electMaisnotaDeepGreen,willingtotakegreatrisksinpursuitofde jureindependence.Buthewaselectedas,ineffect,apaleGreen.6TheDPP’syearsinpowermovedthepoliticalcenterinaDPPdirection.

Taiwan’sindependenceisnowanirreversiblefactofpoliticallife,eveniftheneedtoplacatetheU.S.StateDepartmentmeansthatTaiwan’sPresident

cannotsaysooutloud.Aswiththebroken1951“TreatyofAmity”betweenTibetandChina,theChinesepromisetoHongKong—“OneChina,TwoSystems”—hasturnedouttohavealotmore“oneChina”than“twosystems,”exceptinregardtoeconomicfreedom.AsofDecember2007,only18%ofTaiwanesebelievethat“OneChina,TwoSystems”isaviableformulafordealingwithcross-straitrelations.

Maisrhetoricallycommittedto“OneChina,twosystems,twodifferentmeanings,”butTaiwanesepublic

opinionforbidsanypoliticalintegrationwithanundemocraticChina.

AftertakingofficeonMay20,Mawillenjoyahoneymoonperiodprolongedbythepro-blueorientationofmostofTaiwan’smedia.HewillfaceatoughchallengeindealingwiththeKMTlegislature,whosesuper-majoritydoesnotneedMa’sapprovaltopasslaws.Evenaspartyleader,hewasunabletogettheKMT-majoritylegislaturetopasssomeimportantdefenseappropriations.Hispresidencycouldeasilyberuinedbythebackwards-looking,corrupt,oldguardoftheKMT,thepartywhichnowdominatesthelegislature(theLegislativeYuan,orLY).

Mahasajustifiedreputationasanaffableman,andintheshortterm,hispersonalskillswillhelp

himimproverelationswiththeU.S.andChina.Buthealsohasareputationforbeingeasilypressured,leavinghim,andTaiwan,vulnerabletoKMT’sDeepBluetroglodytes.PresidentMamayalsobevulnerabletobehind-the-scenespressureexertedbyChina—especiallywhenexertedviaTaiwancompaniesdoingbusinessinChina,whoarereadilycoercedintopushingtheChineseCommunistParty’sagenda.AftertheTiananmenSquareatrocityin1989,itwasTaiwanesebusinessmenwithChineseconnectionswhowerethemainpoliticalforceurgingTaiwantoignorethesanctionsthatthecivilizedworldhadimposedontheBeijingdictatorship.

Chinacurrentlyhas1,328short-rangeDongfeng11andDF15ballisticmissilesaimedatTaiwan.Indifferentways,theKMTandtheDPPhavebothbeenresponsibleforaseriousdeclineoverthelastdecadeinTaiwan’sabilitytodefenditselffromChina.BothpartiesnowagreethatatleastthreepercentoftheGrossDomesticProductshouldbespentondefense,butchoicesforhowtospenddefensemoneyhavetoooftenbeenbasedonsymbolismratherthanhard-headedanalysisofdefenseneeds.

Taiwancouldnotdefenditselfinalong-termwarwithChina,butTaiwancouldhardenitsland-baseddefenses,andimproveitsseaandairdefensessothatstrategistsoftheChinesePeople’sLiberationArmy(PLA)couldhavenoconfidencethatafirst,second,orthirdwaveofChineseassaultsonTaiwanwouldbeguaranteedtoleaveChinainsecurecontrolofanentireislandwithitsvaluableeconomicinfrastructureavailableforChineseexploitation.

Indeed,theBushadministration’swillingnesstoactasamouthpieceforChinainpressuringTaiwanagainstmovementtowardsde jure independenceshouldbeunderstoodinthecontextofadministrationandCongressionalfrustrationwithyearsofTaiwanesefailuretofollowthrough

Ma has a justi-fied reputation as an affable man, and in the short term, his per-sonal skills will help him improve relations with the U.S. and China.

Taiwan’s inde-pendence is now

an irreversible fact of political life, even if the need to placate

the U.S. State Department means that

Taiwan’s President cannot

say so out loud.

Page 11

onalready-approvedarmspurchases,andongrosslyinsufficientlevelsofgeneraldefensespendinginTaiwan.

AmorerobustTaiwanesedefenseforcewouldgivePresidentMamorebargainingpowerwithChina,asChinesemoderatescouldcrediblytellthePLAhardlinersthatamilitaryoptionfortakingTaiwanisunrealistic.MuchofcandidateMa’sWhitePaperonDefensePolicyisvague,andconsistsofgeneralitiesandplatitudes.7However,hehasspokenoftheneedtohardenairandnavalbasesagainstafirstwaveofChinesemissilesandfighterplaneattacks,andofstrengtheningthesurvivabilityofthecommandandcommunicationsstructure.8

AmericanappeasementadvocateswhocontendthattheU.S.mustaccommodateitselftotheriseofChina,andeventuallytoaChineseAnschlussofTaiwan,areaswrong-headedastheirpredecessorsofthe1970swhosawtheSovietriseasirreversible.Inbothcases,thepessimistsfailedtorecognizetheinherentfragilityofdictatorships.ItwasnothistoricallyinevitablethatLithuania,Ukraine,Armenia,andothercaptivenationswouldalwaysberuledbyadictatorshipinMoscow.NorisithistoricallyinevitablethattheTibetans,Uighers,Mongols,orTaiwanesemustberuledbyadictatorshipinBeijing.

WhateverthedirectionofU.S.policytowardsChina,afree,democratic,andsovereignTaiwanisthefoundation.

OneofTaiwan’smost-internationallyesteemedscholars,Dr.LinChong-Pinwrites:

HowevertheU.S.eventuallydecidestofacetheriseofChina,Taiwanisindispensible.ToengagetherisingChina,TaiwanisthebeaconforChina’sdemocracy;tocontainit,Taiwanguardsthemostvitalportalofthefirstisland

chain;andtoaccommodateit,Taiwanstandsasabuffer.9

TheU.S.government’spoorrelationswithPresidentChen’sadministrationwereexacerbatedbecausetheU.S.,inexcessivedeferencetoChinesesensibilities,generallyrefusedtoallowhigh-levelU.S.andTaiwanofficialstocommunicatewitheachotherdirectlyandfrequently.The2008electionofPresidentMaprovidesanopportunityfortheU.S.tostoplettingChinasetthetermsofAmerica’sowndiplomaticcommunications.

The2008electionintheUnitedStatesoffersanopportunityforAmericanstoconsiderwhethertocontinueapolicyofaccommodationwithChina—resemblingtheNixon-Ford-CarterapproachtotheSovietUnion.OrwhethertoconsiderthelessonsofPresidentReagan’sSovietpolicy,andbegintolookforwaystostrengthentheprotectionofthefreenationswhicharemostthreatenedbyChina,andtoenvisionalong-termstrategyforfreedomofthecaptivenationsoftheChineseempire,andforfreedomfortheChinesepeoplethemselves.

American appeasement

advocates who contend that the

U.S. must accom-modate itself to

the rise of China, and eventu-

ally to a Chinese Anschluss of

Taiwan, are as wrong-headed as

their predecessors of the 1970s who

saw the Soviet rise as irrevers-

ible.

The 2008 elec-tion of President Ma provides an opportunity for the U.S. to stop letting China set the terms of America’s own diplomatic com-munications.

Page 12

Endnotes 1 “Chuang again apologizes over Ma remarks,” China Post, Mar. 27, 2008.

2 From the Analects of Confucius:

If a king were to entrust you with a territory which you could govern according to your ideas, what would you do first? Confucius replied: “My first task would certainly be to rec-tify the names." The puzzled disciple asked: “Rectify the names? Is this a joke?” Confucius replied: "If the names are not correct, if they do not match realities, language has no object. If language is without an object, action becomes impossible—and there-fore all human affairs disintegrate and their management becomes pointless and impossible. Hence, the very first task of a true statesman is to rectify the names."

3 Taipei Times, Mar. 28, 2008.

4 William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet, act 2, scene 2, lines 1-2:

What’s in a name? That which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet.

5 Although a particular uprising of a colonized people may not succeed, the uprising itself affirms the colonized people’s con-tinuing desire for self-determination, which is an inherent natural right, and which is recognized by international law. When the Irish people began the Easter Uprising of 1916, they issued a Proclamation of the Republic which stated in part:

We declare the right of the people of Ireland to the owner-ship of Ireland, and to the unfettered control of Irish desti-nies, to be sovereign and indefeasible. The long usurpation of that right by a foreign people and government has not extinguished the right, nor can it ever be extinguished except by the destruction of the Irish people. In every generation the Irish people have asserted their right to national freedom and sovereignty: six times during the past three hundred years they have asserted it in arms. Standing on that funda-mental right and again asserting it in arms in the face of the world, we hereby proclaim the Irish Republic as a Sovereign Independent State, and we pledge our lives and the lives of our comrades-in-arms to the cause of its freedom, of its wel-fare, and its exaltation among the nations.

The 1916 Irish Uprising was suppressed within a few days, but it set the stage for a war of independence which finally restored the sovereignty of the Irish people in 1922. 6 To be precise, Green and Blue make Cyan, which looks like a pale Blue.

7 “Ma/Siew White Paper on Defense Policy: A New Military for a Secure and Peaceful Taiwan,” (Summary), Sept. 2, 2007. The one significant innovation is a desire to more away from con-scription, and towards a volunteer force.

8 Ma Ying-Jeou, “A SMART Strategy for National Security,” speech before the Association for the Promotion of National Security, Republic of China, Feb. 26, 2008.

9 Lin Chong-Pin, “China’s Emerging Grand Strategy,” paper presented at University of West Bohemia, Pilsen, Czech Republic, conference on “Contemporary Security Dilemmas: Reflections on Security in Central Europe and East Asia,” Oct. 31, 2006. Dr. Lin is head of the Foundation on International and Cross-Strait Studies, and is also a professor of International Relations at National Chengchi University.

INDEPENDENCEINSTITUTEisanon-profit,non-partisanColoradothinktank.Itisgovernedbyastatewideboardoftrusteesandholdsa501(c)(3)taxexemptionfromtheIRS.Itspublicpolicyresearchfocusesoneconomicgrowth,education,reform,localgovernmenteffectiveness,andConstitutionalrights.

JONCALDARAisPresidentoftheIndependenceInstitute.

DAVIDKOPELisResearchDirectoroftheIndependenceInstitute.

NOTHINGWRITTENhereistobeconstruedasnecessarilyrepresentingtheviewsoftheIndependenceInstituteorasanattempttoinfluenceanyelectionorlegislativeaction.

PERMISSIONTOREPRINTthispaperinwholeorinpartisherebygrantedprovidedfullcreditisgiventotheIndependenceInstitute.

MorearticlesonTaiwanareavailableatindependenceinstitute.organdathttp://davekopel.org/international.htm#Asia.Kopel'sChineselanguagewebsite(inbothtraditionalandsimplified)iskopel.tw.TaiwanPresidentialElectionAnalysiswithDavidKopel.OriginallybroadcastonKBDI-TVchannel12,Denver,April4,2008.FilmedatthePublicTelevisionServicestation,Taipei,Taiwan,March20,2008.KopelinterviewsDr.YenChen-SenfromtheNationalChengchiUniversity’sInstituteofInternationalRelationsandDr.LaiI-ChungfromTaiwanThinktank.Videoforthehour-longprogramisavailableat:http://www.kbdi.org/on_demand/video_player.cfm?series=20943835.