Spillover Effects and National Development Goals in Jordan: The Challenges of a Neighborhood in Protracted Crises

Khalid W. Wazani (Ph.D. Economics)

Chief Economist – Strategist

Issnaad Consulting

Experts Group Meeting Paris

Oct. 20th-21st 2014

Experts Group Meeting On: Formal/Informal Institutions for Citizen Engagement for

implementing the Post 2015 Development Agenda

Table of Contents

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Jordan Economy: Challenges Overview

Refugees Problem in Jordan in Retrospect

Status of Syrian Refugees

Economic & Humanitarian Facts on Syrian Refugees

Proposed Engagement Policies

Concluding Remarks

Jordan’s Socio-Economic Distortions in the Verge of the Crisis

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Jordan’s Economy

Fiscal Deficit 16% of GDP

Public Debit 70% of GDP

Trade Deficit 33% of GDP

Unemployment 13% and

Poverty 14%

Refugees Influx Since 1948

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Year Population # Refugees % to Pop.

1948 400,000 100,000 25%

1967 1,278,416 380,000 30%

1990 3,170,000 300,000 9.5%

2003 5,164,000 750,000 14.5%

2011 6,508,271 1500 0.02%

2012 6,740,000 230,000 3.4%

2013 7,300,000 952,000 13%

Figures and Issues on the Syrian Refugees

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The Crisis Started in March 2011 with 11 People, Escalated to around 900 Thousand by Dec. 2013.

80% of Refugees are not in Refugee Camps but rather all over the country.

56% of the Refugees are in northern cities of Irbid and Mafraq (Bordering Cities).

The Recent Figure of 2014 Talked about over 600 thousand Person officially registered and around half a million of non-registered residents.

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Economic & Humanitarian Facts on

Syrian Refugees

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Receiving over 900 Thousand Refugees Means an Immediate Increase of 13% in Population. (Jordan’s Natural Population Growth Rate is 2.2%)

80% of Refugees are not in Caps (They Are All over the Country)

A good number of refugees are not Officially Registered.

Over 50% of the refugees are below 17 years old.

51% of the refugees are Females

Humanitarian Challenges on Syrian Refugees

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The Main Humanitarian Requirements of such Demographic Structure are:- Child Protection Health Care Education Nutrition Women Protection

Local Communities Acceptance and Engagement is a must

Economic Challenges Facts on Syrian Refugees

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The Main Economic Challenges of Hhosting such a Demographic Structure are:- Infrastructural Challenges Job Creation Budget Pressure Balance of Payments Challenges Poverty Alleviation Efforts

Economic Planning for Engaging Economically Active Refugees is

not an Easy Task for Jordan Under its Current Economic Situation Economic Capabilities of Hosting Communities

Some Remarks on the Syrian Refugees

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The Syrian Refugees Issue is not a Short Term One and Re-Building Syria Is Not Expected to Start Soon

According to a Well Informed Source Over 1.5 million House has been Destroyed so far in Syrian. (the economy used to build 87k house annually in Syria)

The Similarity of The Syrian Refugees is Simulated Around the Palestinian Refugees not the Iraqi One.

Efforts Need to be Co-integrated and Coordinated Among Local, Regional and International Formal & Informal Donors to Help Dealing with the Short and Long term Ramifications of the Crisis.

Main Challenges Facing Host Communities

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Challenges Related to Waste Management & Environment (92% of the Host Municipalities are Affected)

Challenges Related to Water Availability and Quality (64% of host Municipalities are affected). Jordan is the Third Poorest Country in Water Resources.

Challenges Related to Infrastructure (50% of Host Municipalities are Affected)

Challenges Related to Healthcare and Education (52% of Host Municipalities are Affected)

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Engagement Framework

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• Creating Business Interests Between the two Parties

• Bringing some Windfalls to Hosting Communities

Short Term

• Hosting Rebuilding Businesses

• Participating Directly in Rebuilding Efforts.

• Keeping Business Partnership

Long Term

Engagement of Formal & Informal Sectors

Formal Sector

- Government & Public Institutions

- Local, Regional, & International Bodies

- Mainly Involved in Direct Financial Support

- Both UNHCR & Jordan Government Announce insufficiency of Contributions

Informal Sector

- Over 3600 Associations in Jordan

- Many Regional 7 International Associations are Involved

- Involved in Financial and in-kind Assistance.

- Mostly Unorganized Effort

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Some Remarks on Engagement Policies

Informal Sector Involvement is Thought to be Unorganized, Lacks Proper Coordination, and Unneeded in Certain Cases (Waist of Resources)

Formal Sector Contributions are much Below the Expectations of UNHCR (at least by 25%) and that of the Government of Jordan (around 50% Less than Expected)

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Jordan and MDG in the verge of 2015

Jordan is Among the 88+ Countries that Carried National Worldwide Consultation.

Jordan is One of 10 Arab Countries Who were Selected to Run the Post-2015 National Consultations

The Syrian Refugees Crisis Definitely has Substantial Spillover Ramification on Jordan MDG Efforts.

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The MDG Eight Goals for 2015 & the Refugees Crisis in Jordan

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MDG Syrian Refugees Spillover Impact

1. Eradicate extreme hunger and poverty

2. Achieve universal primary education

3. Promote gender equality and empower women

4. Reduce child mortality 5. Improve maternal health 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and

other diseases 7. Ensure environmental

sustainability 8. Develop a global partnership for

development

1. Highly –vely affected

2. Minimal

3. Neutral on Jordanian Females

4. Indications of -ve Impact

5. Highly -vely Affected

6. Highly likely of -ve Impact

7. Highly –vely Affected

8. Somehow +ve Impact.

Concluding Remarks

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An International Fund for Humanitarian-Economic Support Should be put in Place to Deal with Syrian Refugees Engagement Related Issues. (Formal & Informal Sector Should Contribute)

Direct Assistance (especially in-kind) are Becoming a Burden on the Refugees and the Economy: Much more than Needed and are Mostly Smuggled to the Market (Black Market & Corruption).

National, Regional, and International Private Sector Should Take Place in Supporting Refugees Challenges Through CSR Funds, with Special Attention to Engaging Refugees in Income Generating Projects (SMEs & MSEs).

Dr. Khalid W. Wazani kwazani@orange.jo

kwazani@issnaad.com Twitter: @Khwazani

Thank You

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Khalid Wazani®