SYLLABUSOCEA90:FundamentalsofClimate

Instructor:WillCrawford(OceanSciences)Office:Earth&MarineScience,A176e-mail:wjcrawfo@ucsc.eduOfficehours:Wed.12-2pm;Thurs1:30-3:30pm.Earth&MarineScienceA312OVERVIEWDuration:5weeks,2lecturesperweek(10classes)Meetingtime:TuTh,9:00AM-12:30PM

TheclimateoftheEarthisundeniablychanging.Inthiscoursewewillexplorehowinteractionsbetweentheatmosphere,ocean,cryosphere,biosphereandlandsurfaceshapetheverynatureoftheEarth’sclimate.Thecoursewillcomprisefivemodulesthatintroduceimportantideasandconceptsaboutthecirculationoftheatmosphereandocean(week1),atmosphericteleconnectionpatterns(week2),theEl-NiñoSouthernOscillation(week3),thePacificDecadalOscillationandotherlowfrequencymodesofnaturalclimatevariations(week4),andgreenhousegasemissionsandglobalwarming(week5).Theanalysisofclimateisinherentlystatisticalinnature–thatis,thereisno“controlexperiment”onwhichwecanbasetheinterpretationofEarthobservations,sobynecessityweareforcedtoviewclimateintermsofprobabilities.Therefore,inadditiontolearningabouthowtheclimatesystemworks,thiscoursewillexploresomeofthestatisticalmethodsthatunderpinmuchofwhatisknownabouthowclimateischanging.ThisclasssatisfiestheStatisticalReasoning(SR)GeneralEducationrequirement.SCHEDULE• Week1-Module#1:AtmosphericCirculationandtheBasicsofProbabilityand

StatisticsReading:

-module1.pdf-Reader,Mackenzie,“TheFluidEarth:Atmosphere,”chapter3,page3-26;

Concepts:-Randomnumbers;probabilitydensityfunctions;cumulativeprobabilities-Earthenergybalance;distributionofatmosphericpressure;Pressuregradientforce;Coriolisforce;geostrophicbalance;

• Week2-Module#2:AtmosphericTeleconnectionPatternsReading:

-module2.pdf-Reader,“AnOverviewoftheNorthAtlanticOscillation”byHurrelletal,pages69-103;

Concepts:-Thegeneralcirculationoftheatmosphere;moreonprobabilitydensityfunctions

-Stormtracks;teleconnectionpatterns;thePacificNorthAmerican(PNA)patternandtheNorthAtlanticOscillation(NAO)

• Week3-Module#3:TheElNiñoSouthernOscillation(ENSO)Reading:

-module3.pdf-Reader,Mackenzie,“TheFluidEarth:Hydrosphere,”chapter4,page31-66;

Concepts:-Theoceancirculation;gyresandwesternboundarycurrents;correlation-TheBjerknesfeedback;ElNiñoandLaNiña;probabilisticforecasting

• Week4-Module#4:ClimateVariabilityReading:

-module4.pdfConcepts:

-Covariance;principalcomponents-Principalcomponentsandclimatemodes;thePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO);theNorthPacificGyreOscillation(NPGO);annularmodes;theIndianOceanZonalMode(IOZM)

• Week5-Module#5:ClimateChangeReading:

-module5.pdf-Reader,Kumpetal.,chapter16,pages109-145;

Week5:-Thegreenhouseeffectrevisited;climatechange;linearregression-Attributionofclimatechange;climatemodelforecasts

ASSIGNMENTS

StudentassignmentsarebasedontheopensourcestatisticalsoftwarepackagecalledR.RisfreelyavailableforbothMacandPC,andisalsoavailableinmostofthecomputerlaboratoriesoncampus.YoushouldinstallRonyourownpersonalcomputerassoonaspossible,orlocateaconvenientcomputerlabwhereRisavailableforyoutouse.ForinformationonhowtodownloadandinstallR,seehttp://its.ucsc.edu/software/list.htmlunderthetab“R–Statistics.”ForbasicinstructionsonRseethedocumentR_introduction.pdfwhichcanbefoundintheRfolderontheclasswebsite.Theapproximatescheduleofassignmentsisasfollows:(1)Assignment#1:outon7/26;dueon8/2(2)Assignment#2:outon8/2;dueon8/9(3)Assignment#3:outon8/9;dueon8/16(4)Assignment#4:outon8/16;dueon8/23(5)Assignment#5:outon8/23;dueon8/26(Friday)

NOTE:Studentsarerequiredtoworkonassignmentsalone.Therearenogroupassignments,andtheworkyousubmitforgradingmustbeyourownwork.Onlyhardcopiesofyourassignmentsareaccepted.-Electroniccopiesofstudentworkwillnotbeaccepted.-Assignmentsaredueby4pmonthedateindicated.-10%willbedeductedfromyourgradeforeverydaythatanassignmentisoverdue.EXAMINATIONSTherewillbetwoexamsduringthequarter:amid-termexamscheduledfor8/11andafinalexamscheduledfor8/25.Bothwillbeduringtheclassperiod.STUDENTEVALUATIONStudentswillbeevaluatedbasedontheirperformanceinfivehomeworkassignments(75%offinalgrade)andtwoexaminations(25%offinalgrade).CLASSTEXTThereisnotextbookforthisclass.Insteadacustomizedreaderisavailableatthebookstore,thoughitisoptionalandinnowayrequiredfortheclass.Inaddition,theinstructorwillmakenotesavailableonlinethatcoverthestatisticalmaterialthatiscoveredduringlectures.Theinstructorwilldoeverythingpossibletoaccommodatestudentswithlearningorphysicaldisabilities.However,suchdisabilitiesmustbebroughttotheattentionoftheinstructoratthestartofthequarter.Theinstructorwillmakeeveryefforttoreasonablyandfairlydealwithallstudentswho,becauseofreligiousobligations,haveconflictswithscheduledexams,assignmentsorrequiredattendance.Pleasenotifytheinstructorregardinganyanticipatedschedulingconflictsarisingfromobservanceofreligiousholidaysorfestivalsasearlyinthequarteraspossiblesothatthereisadequatetimetomakenecessaryalternativearrangements.