sustrus: tml tasks christophe heyndrickx [email protected]

19/04/23 SUSTRUS Kick-off meeting 1

SUSTRUS: TML tasks

Christophe Heyndrickx [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


Outline

• Introduction to TML• TML in the SUSTRUS project• Experience in model construction• Policy indicators• Linking the three dimensions of

sustainability


Outline

• Introduction to TML• Experience in model construction• Policy indicators• Linking the three dimensions of

sustainability


Introduction to TML• Transport and Mobility Leuven• ° 14th February 2002• Multidisciplinary Team (13 employees):

– Civil Engineers– Economists– Environmentalists– Computer Scientists– Urban Planners

• General Manager: Griet De Ceuster• 50 % of shares University of Leuven, other

50 % are held by TNO


Introduction to TML• Quantitative modelling• Supporting Government Policy (European commission, national and regional

governments, lobby groups)

• Domains of Expertise– Transport Economics– Traffic Engineering– Transport Analysis– Environment– Logistics– Spatial Economics


TML in SUSTRUS

• Preparation of the proposal• WP3: model methodology, model

callibration and construction• WP4: determining valuable economic

indicators, implementation of policy assessment framework

• WP6: construction of the international module

• WP8: integration of the international module, the social module and the environmental module into the general structure


Outline


sustainability


Model constructionModels developed and used by TML

Transport economic models-TREMOVE: Road transport and emissions (partial

equilibrium model)

General equilibrium models-EDIP: general equilibrium model for 31 European

countries, modeling road transport, emissions, social policies and inequality in detail

Regional general equilibrium models-RAEM: regional equilibrium model for the Netherlands -ISEEM : regional equilibrium model for Belgium (similar

to RAEM)


RAEM model• 15 commodities and 15 production sectors (1 sector,

1 product)• 17 production factors (commodities + labour +

capital)• Leontief in value added and intermediate inputs• Capital and labour are mobile among sectors• Small-open economy assumption (Armington)• Government sector with Federal and Local levels,

collects different taxes and makes transfers (Cobb-Douglas utility function)

• Migration between regions according to generation distribution function

• Trips (business, shopping, other, education) according to generation distribution function

• Commuting trips according to attraction function (based on work of Mark Thissen on RAEM 2.0)


ISEEM model• Similar to RAEM, but extended with new elements• 26 sectors and 26 commodities (dropped 1 sector-1

product assumption)• 30 production factors: capital, labour, land and

buildings• Wage bargaining on labor market (national level),

combined with Pissarides approach• Emissions per sector in different industries, services

sectors and residential sector• Welfare of households associated with emissions and

pollution• Energy inputs are explicitly modelled: difference

between fossile fuels (coal, oil and gas) and other energy inputs

• Construction sector and land use• Innovation and R&D


EDIP model• 31 European countries (EU27 + NO + HR + SE + TR)• 60 sectors and related commodities• 62 production factors (commodities + land + capital)• Detailed modeling of the transport sector and energy

sector• Emissions by sector and by energy type (coal/oil/gas)• Detailed labour market modelling: different household

types, with different occupations and educations.

But, not a regional model !


Model methodology and construction• Some basis can be provided by ISEEM, RAEM and

EDIP models, applied to Russian datasets and the literature review worked out in WP1

• RAEM/ISEEM : regional equilibrium modelling + EDIP: more attention to social policies and environment

• Amount of sectors remains to be specified, sufficient detail will be necessary for sustainability issues.

• In the Russian context we will have to put more attention to land use and natural resources

• Modelling of the labour market, commuting, transport trips should be simplified

• More attention to dynamic part of the model


sec1 Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries

sec2 Mining and Quarrying

sec3 Manufacturing of Food, Drinks, Tobacco

sec4 Manufacturing of Clothing and Footwear

sec5 Manufacturing of Wood Products

sec6 Manufacturing of Paper and Print Media

sec7 Manufacturing of Cokes, Refined Oil + Other

sec8 Manufacturing of Chemicals, Pharmaceutics

sec9 Manufacturing of Plastics

sec10 Manufacturing of Glass, Ceramics and Building Materials

sec11 Manufacturing of Basic Metal products

sec12 Manufacturing of Machinery

sec13 Manufacturing of Electronical Equipment

sec14 Manufacturing of Transportation Equipment

sec15 Energy, Water Supply

sec16 Construction

sec17 Wholesale and Retail Trade

sec18 Hotels, Restaurants, Cafés

sec19 Transport

sec20 Communication

sec21 Banking and Finance

sec22 Business Services

sec23 Government Services

sec24 Education

sec25 Health

sec26 Leisure Services


Model construction• Detail depends on collected data, should at least have

the necessary detail to be able to have different energy inputs and model natural resources

• First build a simple model, based on earlier work for Russia and the modelling experience of the partners

• Add the newly constructed environmental, social and international modules on the way

• Focus on aspects that are specific on the chosen regional level

• Sufficient focus on the exogeneous parameters, to balance trade flows, production and consumption, migration, etc…


Outline


sustainability


Sustainability indicators

The concepts of sustainability indicators1. Toolkits to guide policy makers.2. Foundation for improved information and data collection3. Comparative analysis on national and regional state of

and progress towards sustainable development

Characteristics of an effective indicator1. Quantitative or qualitative measure derived from a series

of observed facts2. Point out the directions of change across different units

and through time 3. Identify trends and draw attention to particular issues. 4. Helpful in setting policy priorities and in benchmarking or

monitoring performance


Sustainability indicatorsScientific: •Measurable and quantifiable: they should adequately reflect the phenomenon intended to be measured•Meaningful: appropriate to the needs of the user•Clear in value: positive or negative•Clear in content: measure in understandable units

Functional: • Relevant: for all stakeholders involved• Possible to influence: Indicators must measure parameters that may be modified•Comprehensive: the indicator set should sufficiently describe all essential aspects under study

Pragmatic:•Feasible: measurable at reasonable effort and cost


Sustainability : economic indicatorsBasic indicators• GDP: country, region, sector• Unemployment: country, region, household type• Consumption: per capita, by region, by specific class of

good, by household type • Inflation: changes in price level

Other important indicators• Openness of trade: (exports + imports) / GDP• Trade balance: (exports - imports)/(exports + imports)• FDI: as share of total investments, as share of GDP• Government revenues : on national, regional level + by

government


Sustainability : enviromental indicators• Emissions and waste: in tonnes (by emission type),

monetary value (damages), as share of GDP, by sector, per capita,

• Resources - Land use: change in land types, land as input to

production- Stocks of oil and gas available: in tonnes, monetary value, share of GDP, etc..- Other resources: forest, minerals, water, etc..

• Other environmental/sustainability indicators: Ecological footprint (CO2 emissions, compared to

available land for sequestration) Environmental pressure index Barometer of sustainability


Sustainability : social indicators• Welfare: - Equivalent variation: based on utility of the different

consumers, household types• Income inequality

- Gini coefficient: broad indicator for inequality- Atkinson index: set degree of inequality aversion- Theil index or related: easily decomposable in subgroups, on regional level, by household, etc..

• Poverty - Monetary poverty: always based on a pre-defined

poverty line (for example 60% of mean income, or 50% of median income)- 3 I’s of poverty (Incidence, Intensity and Inequality)

• Progressivity of tax schemeKakwani’s index (or variant)


Outline


sustainability


Linking sustainability indicators• Should we derive a composite indicator for

sustainability?• Experience shows that this is really hard

– Different approaches: ISEW, Genuine Progress, HDI, etc..

– Very difficult to weight different indicators (different results for different weights)

– Often not all variables can be calculated from the model

• Calculate basic indicators that are easy to interpret and can be easily compared to each other


Linking sustainability indicators• Which indicators should we certainly use1. GDP2. Unemployment3. Government budget/revenues4. International/interregional trade (openness of trade,

trade balance)5. Welfare of households (equivalent variation or

extended index, more relevant to sustainability)6. Environmental indicator or set of indicators,

focusing on (health) damages from pollution 7. Related to land use (change in land types, land

based production/employment)

Literature review

Will always be in interest of policy makers


Thank you

Большое спасибо !

sustrus: tml tasks christophe heyndrickx [email protected]

Documents

regional equilibrium

model callibration

model methodology

production sectors

sustrus projectexperience

social module

regional governments

services sectors