sustainable and equitable increases in fruit and vegetable ... · position paper: sustainable &...

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Sustainable and Equitable Increases in Fruit and Vegetable Productivity and Consumption are Needed to Achieve Global Nutrition Security Position Paper resulting from a workshop organized by the Aspen Global Change Institute and hosted at the Keystone Policy Center July 30 – August 3, 2018 Workshop Co-Chairs: Alison Edwards (Stewardship Index for Specialty Crops), John Finley (USDA/ARS), Dave Gustafson (independent scientist), Franklin Holley (Keystone Policy Center), Dominik Klauser (Syngenta Foundation), Jerry Nelson (U Illinois) Workshop Purpose: To assemble global practice and thought leaders to create a future vision for more sustainable and resilient fruit and vegetable (F&V) food systems. Workshop Objective: Identify challenges and opportunities for existing and future F&V food systems. Prioritize among the leverage points for change and knowledge gaps. Outline approaches (changes in the food system itself & research needs) to sustainably provide healthy, nutritious food to a growing, more urban world population, based on the principles of diversity, equity & inclusion. Workshop Outputs: Position paper on needed innovations in F&V food systems. Strawman proposal on next steps, including identification of who can implement the needed system changes and conduct the needed research. Workshop Outcome: A new community of practice sharing an aligned vision on more resilient and sustainable F&V food systems and a roadmap on how they can be achieved. Date: November 20, 2018

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Page 1: Sustainable and Equitable Increases in Fruit and Vegetable ... · Position Paper: Sustainable & Equitable Increases in F&V Needed for Global Nutrition Security 5 process of decomposition

SustainableandEquitableIncreasesinFruitandVegetableProductivityandConsumptionareNeededtoAchieveGlobalNutritionSecurity

PositionPaperresultingfromaworkshop

organizedbytheAspenGlobalChangeInstituteandhostedattheKeystonePolicyCenter

July30–August3,2018

WorkshopCo-Chairs:AlisonEdwards(StewardshipIndexforSpecialtyCrops),JohnFinley(USDA/ARS),DaveGustafson(independentscientist),FranklinHolley(Keystone

PolicyCenter),DominikKlauser(SyngentaFoundation),JerryNelson(UIllinois)WorkshopPurpose:

Toassembleglobalpracticeandthoughtleaderstocreateafuturevisionformoresustainableandresilientfruitandvegetable(F&V)foodsystems.

WorkshopObjective:

IdentifychallengesandopportunitiesforexistingandfutureF&Vfoodsystems.Prioritizeamongtheleveragepointsforchangeandknowledgegaps.Outlineapproaches(changesinthefoodsystemitself&researchneeds)tosustainablyprovidehealthy,nutritiousfoodtoagrowing,moreurbanworldpopulation,basedontheprinciplesofdiversity,equity&inclusion.

WorkshopOutputs:

PositionpaperonneededinnovationsinF&Vfoodsystems.Strawmanproposalonnextsteps,includingidentificationofwhocanimplementtheneededsystemchangesandconducttheneededresearch.

WorkshopOutcome:

AnewcommunityofpracticesharinganalignedvisiononmoreresilientandsustainableF&Vfoodsystemsandaroadmaponhowtheycanbeachieved.

Date:November20,2018

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SustainableandEquitableIncreasesinFruitandVegetableProductivityandConsumptionareNeededtoAchieveGlobalNutritionSecurity

PositionPaperCo-Authors

AbhishekChaudharyAhmedKablanAlisonEdwardsAnneEliseStrattonCarolineOttoClaudioStöckleColinKhouryDanSonkeDaveGustafsonDominikKlauserFranklinHolleyGregThoma

HansBlonkJenOttenJerryNelsonJessicaBogardJohnFinleyKaiyuGuanKateSchaffnerKeithWiebeKerriSteenwerthKevinBryanLindeweSibandaMarkusFrank

NaomiFukagawaRozNaylorSentholdAssengSumiraPhatakSylviaRoweTimHessTimSulserWei-TingChenYanLiZachConrad

ABSTRACT

Increasedintakeoffruitsandvegetables(F&V)isrecommendedformostpopulationsacrosstheglobe.However,thecurrentstateofglobalandregionalfoodsystemsissuchthatF&Vavailability,theproductionrequiredtosustainthem,andconsumerfoodchoicesareallseverelydeficienttomeetthisneed.Giventhecriticalstateofpublichealthandnutritionworldwide,aswellasthefragilityoftheecologicalsystemsandresourcesonwhichtheyrely,thereisagreatneedforresearch,investment,andinnovationinF&Vsystemstonourishourglobalpopulation.Here,wereviewthechallengesthatmustbeaddressedinordertoexpandproductionandconsumptionofF&Vsustainablyandonaglobalscale.Attheconclusionoftheworkshop,thegatheredparticipantsdraftedthe“Aspen/KeystoneDeclaration”(seebelow),whichannouncestheformationofanew“CommunityofPractice,”whoseareaofworkisdescribedinthispositionpaper.Theneedforthisworkisbasedonaseriesofpremisesdiscussedindetailattheworkshopandsummarizedherein.Tosurmountthesechallenges,opportunitiesarepresentedforgrowthandinnovationinF&Vfoodsystems.ThepaperisorganizedintofivesectionsbasedonprimarypointsofinterventioninglobalF&Vsystems:(1)researchanddevelopment,(2)informationneedstobetterinformpolicy&investment,(3)production(farmers,farmingpractices,andsupply),(4)consumption(availability,access,anddemand),and(5)sustainable&equitableF&Vfoodsystemsandsupplychains.

TheAspen/KeystoneDeclarationAnewCommunityofPracticehasformedwithasharedmissiontosynthesizedataandgeneratetheknowledgeneededtobetterinformactionsandinterventionsleadingtomorediverse,equitable,nutritious,resilient,andsustainableglobalF&Vfoodsystems.

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The graphic on this flyer was produced by Ellie Barber of the Aspen Global ChangeInstitute to help summarize the desirable food system outcomes discussed at theworkshop.Theside-eventmentioned in this flyershowcasedworkshopoutcomesandwasheldalongsidethe2018GlobalClimateActionSummit.PreparedcommentsfromthepanelistswerefollowedbyQ&Aandinteractionswiththe40gatheredparticipants.

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Background&IntroductionToimprovepublichealthandnutrition,populationsacrosstheglobemustconsumemoreF&Vonadailybasis.1However,thecurrentstateofglobalandregionalfoodsystemsissuchthatbothF&Vavailabilityandtheproductionrequiredtosustainthemareseverelydeficienttomeetthisneed(Milleretal.,2016;Bahaduretal.,2018).WhileinnovationsintechnologyandproductionmethodscanimproveproductionefficiencyandincreasetheyieldofF&Vsystems,yieldaloneisinsufficienttoguaranteecropnutritionalquality,systemsustainability,andF&Vaccessanddemandbyconsumers.ResearchhasshownthatthereistremendousvariationinF&Vconsumptionacrosstheworld;however,ingeneral,themajorityoftheworld’spopulationconsumesfarfewerF&VthanrecommendedbytheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)andthisisrelatedtonumerouspoorhealthoutcomes(Hall,Moore,Harperetal.2009,Casagrande,Wang,Andersonetal.2007).Oneofthemajorleadingcausesforpoorhealthanddiseaseworldwideispoordiet(Limetal.,2012)andaccordinglysixofthetopnineglobaldiseasesriskfactorsarelinkedtopoordietaryquality(Forouzanfaretal.,2015).Approximately16.0milliondisabilityadjustedlifeyears(DALYs),and1.7milliondeathsworldwidearerelatedtolowF&Vconsumption(WHO,2018).F&Vareamongthefewfoodgroupswithpositiveoutcomesforbothundernutrition(e.g.micronutrientdeficiencies)andovernutrition(e.g.cardiovasculardisease,overweightandobesity).AccordingtotheUnitedNationsStateofFoodInsecurityintheWorld2017report(FAO.,2017),815millionpeoplesufferedfromcaloriedeficithungerin2016.Micronutrientdeficienciesafflictmanymorepeoplethroughouttheworld—estimatedatover2billion—whileroughlyone-thirdoftheglobalpopulationisoverweightorobese(Ngetal.,2014;WHO,2018).Approximatelyone-thirdofwomenofreproductiveageareanemic,mainlyduetoirondeficiency,andoneinfourchildrensufferfromstuntingduetomalnutritioninthefirst1000dayspost-conception2(fromthewombtotwoyearsofage)(SOFA,2018).ConsumptionofsufficientF&Vperday(aminimumof400g,accordingtotheWHO)hasbeenconsistentlyshowntoreduceriskofmanychronicdiseases,includingmultiplegastrointestinalcancers,cardiovasculardisease,andstroke(Jansen2001;WHO2005).AsystematicreviewofstudiesrelatingF&Vconsumptiontoreducedratesofcancer,cardiovasculardisease,andprematuredeath(Auneetal.2017)foundthatthereweresignificantbenefitstointakeofupto500gfruit/dayand800gvegetables/day(twicetheWHOminimumrecommendedintakelevel)andthat13.4million3prematuredeathsperyearcouldbepreventedgloballybyincreasingpopulation-levelF&Vconsumption.Atthesametime,becauseF&Vproductionusessignificantquantitiesofnaturalresources,itisimperativethattheirconsumptionisalignedwithproductionlevelstopreventthewasteofnaturalresources.Additionally,becauseoftheirperishability,F&Varethesecondmostwastedfoodproductcategoryafterseafoodinmanycountries(NRDC,2017).WhenF&Varedivertedtothegarbageinsteadofeatentheycontributetoincreasesingreenhousegas(GHGs)emissionsinthe1Asaquickwordofinitialexplanation,thisdocumenthasnotbeeneditedtothestandardsofapeer-reviewedjournal.Manydeclarativestatements,suchasthisone,havenotbeenreferenced.Butmanyhavebeen,andtherearemorethansixpagesofreferences.Thisdocumentwas“crowd-sourced”bytheworkshopparticipants(allofwhomvolunteeredtheirtime).Amoretightlyeditedandshorterversionwillbesubmittedtoapeer-reviewedjournalsoon.Inthemeantime,thisreportwillbemadeavailabletoothers(viatheAGCIweb-site),asthefirstofthetangibleworkshopoutputsandinordertofacilitatenextsteps(e.g.proposals).2WhileincreasedF&Vconsumptionisgenerallyunderstoodtobebeneficialduringthefirst1000days,thegreaterneedinsomeregionsmayactuallybeforhigheramountsofanimal-basedfoodsinthediet.3Itshouldbenotedthereisconsiderablevariationintheliteratureonthisnumber.

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processofdecomposition.Foodsystemtransformationsareneededtoensurecloserlinkagesbetweenproducersandconsumers,inordertoimprovesuchalignment.Globally,publicinvestmentsinF&Vsystemspaleincomparisontomajorcerealcrops.TheWorldVegetableCenter,aninternationalagriculturalresearchinstitutiondedicatedtoresearchanddevelopmentforvegetablecrops,spendsapproximately$20million/year,ascomparedtoroughly$920million/yearbytheCGIARsystem,whichisdevotedprimarilytostaplesandhasnospecificF&Vcomponent.4Thisrepresentsaglobalpublicinvestmentofonly3-5%invegetablebreedingandsystemsrelativetototalexpendituresonstaplegrainsandotherheavily-tradedcommoditiesproducedintheGlobalSouth(WorldVegetableCenter,2018).ItisimportanttonotethattherearestrongprivatesectorinvestmentsinF&VsystemsinboththeGlobalNorthandtheGlobalSouth,particularlyintheareaofhybridandcommercially-importantvegetables(e.g.,tomato,onion,pepper,lettuce,cucumber)andfruits(e.g.,orange,apple,pineapple,mango,banana).Thereisalsoanopportunityforgreaterinvestmentinadditionalcropsthatarenotcurrentlycommercialtargets,includingregionalorindigenousspeciesandvarieties.Astheglobaltrendtowardsurbanizationshrinksfarmingpopulations(inmostareas)andincreasesthedistancebetweenproductionandconsumption,ensuringcontinuedaccesstolocally-sourcedF&Vbecomesmoredaunting.Urbanandruralpooralikeincreasinglyhavegreateraccess–throughbothlowerpricepointsandheightenedmarketingandsales–toultra-processed,high-sugarfoodsproducedfromcommoditycropsthantheydotofreshproduce.Cumulatively,thesediet-relatedfactorscontributetothetripleburdenofmalnutrition—combinedunderweight,overweight,andmicronutrientdeficiencies—acrosspopulationsinboththeGlobalNorthandGlobalSouth.AdditionalchallengesforsustainablyproducingenoughF&Vtoachieveglobalnutritionsecurityincludeagrowingglobalpopulation(PRB,2017),adegradedandcontaminatedresourcebaseduetocurrentproductionpractices,increasingcompetitionforfreshwaterresources,andachangingclimate.Giventhecriticalstateofpublichealthandnutritionworldwide,aswellasthefragilityandconstraintsoftheecologicalsystemsandresourcesonwhichtheyrely,thereisagreatneedforresearch,investment,andinnovationinF&Vsystemstonourishourglobalpopulation.Here,wereviewthechallengesthatmustbeaddressedinordertoexpandproductionandconsumptionofF&Vsustainablyandonaglobalscale.Tosurmountthesechallenges,wesubsequentlypresentopportunitiesforgrowthandinnovationinF&Vsystems.ThepaperisorganizedintofivesectionsbasedonprimarypointsofinterventioninglobalF&Vsystems:(1)researchanddevelopment,(2)informationneedstobetterinformpolicy&investment,(3)production(farmers,farmingpractices,andsupply),(4)consumption(availability,access,anddemand),and(5)sustainableandequitableF&Vfoodsystemsandsupplychains.

4Innotingthesefigures,itisacknowledgedthatthetotalglobalvalueofstaplesgreatlyexceedsthoseofF&Vcrops,thuslesseningthediscrepancywhenconsideredasaratioofinvestmenttototalcropvalue.

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1.RESEARCHANDDEVELOPMENTChallenges:LackofdataforempiricalF&Vresearch&modelingDataonF&VconsumptionandlinkstohealthoutcomesareimpreciseThereappearstobeconsensusthattheglobalpopulationdoesnotconsumesufficientF&V.However,thedataonwhichthisconsensusisbasedarechallengedbytheimprecisionofavailablemeasurementtechniques.Manychallengesexistinthecollectionofretrospectiveandprospectivedietaryintakedata,includingdietaryrecallbiasesandthedifficultythatpeopleexperienceinaccuratelyrememberingdietaryintake(RiboliandNorat,2003,TempleandGladwin2003).Additionally,long-termrandomizedcontroltrials(RCT)investigatingF&Vdietaryinterventionsastheyrelatetohealthoutcomesarelacking.AlthoughRCTevidencewouldfillanessentialknowledgegapthatcouldbeusedtoupdatedietaryguidelines,thehighcostandcomplexityofthestudydesignmakeitprohibitive.Inaddition,theimportanceofclosinggapsinknowledgeaboutnutrientcontentoffoodsiswellacceptedbuttherapidlychangingfoodsupplymakesthisadauntingtask.Unfortunately,establishingcausalrelationshipsbetweencomponentsinF&Vandbiomarkersofhealthisnearlyimpossiblegiventheinteractionsbetweendiet,geneticsandtheenvironmentaswellastheunpredictableeffectsoftheenvironmentandproductionpracticesonthenutrientprofilesoffoods.SiloedanddisciplinarydatacollectionandstoragelimitF&VanalysesDatacollectionandstorageatthescaleoffoodsystemsisfrequentlyfragmented,complicatedorchallengedbybarriersindatasharingandintegratedanalysesofprocessesacrossactorsandscales.Forexample,thequestionofhowF&VnutrientcontentaffectshumanhealthiskeytounderstandingthemechanismsbehindthenutritionalbenefitsandhealthoutcomesaffectedbyconsumingF&V,butithasneverbeentested,likelybecausecomplexquestionsrequiredatafrommultiplesources.F&Vnutrientprofilesarehighlyvariableandtheresultofinteractionswithnaturalresources(soil,wateravailability),withanthropogenicinputs(variety,nutrients,pesticides),andwithtransformationsalongthevaluechain.ThenutrientsinF&Vthatareactuallyconsumed,bioavailableandbiologicallyactivedependonahostofsocialproperties,includingorganoleptic(sensory)qualities,availabilityandprice,andconsumerpreferences.Dataarecollectedonmanyofthesefoodsystemcharacteristics.IntheUnitedStates,forexample,farmerscollectdataonvariety,nutrientapplications,soilcharacteristics,timingofplantingandharvest,andharvestmass.Purchaserstracktimeintransitfromfarmtonextmarketingstage,timeinandnatureofstorage(includinginthehome),andhandlingcosts.Thefinalretailercollectsdataonsalesvolumeandprice.USDAtracksproductiondataandprovidesnutrientcharacteristicsonsomeF&V.Healthcareandpublichealthinvestigatorscollectdataonhealthparametersanddietaryintakes.Theresultingdatatypicallyremainwiththerespectivecollectingorganizationsorareavailableinnon-transferrableformats(e.g.,missingmetadata).Datasystemsthatintegrateagricultural,processing,andconsumerlevelnutritionaldata(alongwithotherrelevantsocialandculturalindicators),aswellasdevelopmentofmetadataandontologiestoallowlinkages,areessentialtoconductingintegratedresearchregardingthepotentialandrealizedbenefitsofF&V.Integrated(crop/economic/LCA)modelingrequiresintegratedandfine-scaleF&VdataSiloedornonexistentdataalsolimitresearchers’analyticalcapacitiestolearnfromcurrentproductionorconsumptionpatterns,aswellastopredictoroptimizefutureF&Vsystemsgivenshiftingenvironmentalconditions.Tounderstandthepotentialofintensifying,expandingorrelocatingtheproductionofF&Vinfoodsystems,cropmodelsofferscenarioanalysis,including

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consideringtheimpactandadaptationoffutureclimatechange.Cropmodelsintegrateweather,soil,andmanagementsystemstoestimateorpredictcropyield;bothprocess-basedmodelsandstatisticalmodelshavebeenusedinthepastforstaplecropsandF&V(LobellandField,2011;Rosenzweigetal.,2014).Process-basedcropmodelssimulatethedynamicbehaviorsofcropdevelopmentandgrowthresultinginyieldovertimeininteractionwithweatherdata,atmosphericCO2,soilwaterandnitrogen(N)dynamics,cropmanagement,andcropvarietycharacteristics.SomeofthesecropmodelsincludeNfunctionsallowingthequantificationofproteinyield.Toeffectivelyruntheprocess-basedmodels,detailedinputsandparametercalibrationsareneeded,whichinmanycasesaremissing.Statisticalcropmodels,whichhaveamoresimplifiedschemeascomparedwithprocess-basedcropmodels,stillhavetheabilitytocapturemostfirst-orderimpactsofsoilandweatherastheyrelatetothecropyield;statisticalcropmodelsalsohavetheflexibilitytotakedifferentamountsofinputdataevenwhendataisrelativelylimiting(LobellandBurke,2010).Bothcropmodelscanbeappliedtoquantifycropdynamicsinaconsistentwayatafieldexperimentalplot,afarmer’sfield,aregion,anentirecountryortheentireglobetogenerateproductionandnutritiondataforeconomic,lifecycle,andsupplychainmodeling.Suchcropmodelsexistandhavebeenappliedinsystemsanalysesacrossscalesformostmajorstaplecrops,suchaswheat(Chenuetal.,2017),butlesssoforF&Vcrops.TherearerelativelyfewmechanisticandstatisticalcropmodelsformostF&Vcrops,duetomorelimitedphysiologicalknowledgeandfieldexperimentaldatatobuildthem.TheapplicationofF&Vcropmodelsatvariousscalesiscurrentlyalsohinderedbylimitedinformationoncultivarcharacteristics,cropmanagement(e.g.sowingandharvestdates),andyieldandnutritionalmeasurementsinthefield.Unlikestaplecrops,statisticalsurveydata(e.g.,yield,harvestarea,irrigation,fertilizeruse)forF&Vproductionislimited.EffortstomapF&Vproductionlagbehindstaplecrops,partlyduetosmaller,denser,andmorediversifiedplantingareas.Thisinformationiscriticalforunderstanding,modeling,andprojectionoffutureF&Vproductionpatternsandhowthesesystemswillchangeunderclimaticorothernaturalresourceshifts(e.g.irrigationwateravailability).Dietaryshiftscanleadtotrade-offsbetweennutritionalandsustainabilitymetricsFewstudieshaveassessedtheconsequencesofglobaldietaryshiftstoincreasedintakeofF&Vonmultipleindicatorsoffoodnutrientintakeandenvironmentalimpact.UnitedNations’2030sustainabledevelopmentgoals(SDGs;UN,2015)callforpoliciesthattakeasystemsapproachandminimizetrade-offsacrossdifferenteconomic,social,environmentalgoals.Springmannetal.(2018aand2018b)recentlyexploredtheimpactsofimproveddiets,includingincreasedF&Vconsumption,onarangeofhealthandenvironmentaloutcomesatglobalandnationallevels.MoststudieshaveassessedthedietarychangeorincreasedF&Vintakeimpactsonsingleaspectsofdietqualityandenvironmentaldamage(e.g.GHGemissionsorwater)(Hessetal.,2015;Vanhametal.,2018).Thisisprimarilybecauseofalackofconsensusonwhatindicatorscanholisticallyquantifythestatusofnationaldietaryqualityandenvironmentalfootprint.RecentworkbyGustafsonetal.(2016)andChaudharyetal.(2018)underscoredthelimitsofastrictlyplant-baseddiethighinF&Vintaketoresolvesustainabilityanddietarynutritionalconcernssimultaneously.TheyfoundthatdietsintheGlobalNorthscorewellonintakeofessentialnutrientsbutareassociatedwithhighenvironmentalfootprintandhighinintakeofnutrientsofhealthconcern(e.g.sugar,cholesterol).Ontheotherhand,dietsoftheGlobalSouthscorewellonenvironmentalandhealth-concernnutrientindicatorsbutlowonindicatorsquantifyingtheadequacyofessentialnutrientintake.Thesefindingsunderscoredtheimportanceofamulti-indicatorapproach.Forexample,theydemonstratethatashiftfromcurrentmixeddietstomoreplant-baseddietsmightimprovetheenvironmentalindicatorscoresbutcanresultinreductionofnutritionalbalancescore.ThisisbecausemanymicronutrientssuchasVitaminB12andsome

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essentialaminoacidsthatarefoundinanimal-basedfoodsaresimplyabsentorreducedinplant-basedalternativesavailableintheregion.ManyresearchgapsstillexistinourunderstandingofhowparticulardietaryshiftssuchasincreasingintakeofF&Vmightaffectthenutritionalandenvironmentaloutcomesindifferentpartsoftheworld.Onthenutritionside,morecomprehensivefoodintakeaswellasnutrientcompositiondataforallfooditemsconsumedineachcountryareneeded.Thisisbecausestudieshaveshownthattheamountofaparticularmicronutrientcanvarydramaticallyforthesamefooditemproducedindifferentconditions/regions.Nutrientlossoccurringduringstorage,transport,processingandcookingoffooditemsisnotwellunderstood.Ontheenvironmentalside,althoughseveralmeta-analysisandlifecycleassessmentdatabasesdoexist,region-andproductionsystem-specificinventoriesofF&Vitemsareunavailable(e.g.,GHGemissionsfromorganicF&VinSE-Asia/Africa).GlobalgriddedmapsofwhichF&Varegrowninwhichregionswithwhatmanagementregimesarelacking.ThesewouldbeimportantforaccuratelyquantifyingtheenvironmentalandecosystemservicesimpactofF&Vproductionsystems.Opportunities:NovelresearchapproachestofillF&VdatagapsTrans-disciplinarysystemsmodelingapproachesareessentialforintegratedF&VanalysesSystemsmodelingusinganinter-disciplinaryapproachisessentialtotheintegrationofcomplexsystemssuchasthesebecausetheyaremorethanthesumoftheirpartsandmustbestudiedasawhole.Successfulapproachesdemandinterdisciplinaryteams(Finley2017)likeAgMIP–theAgriculturalModelIntercomparisonandImprovementProject(Rosenzweigetal.2013),fulldatainclusion,dataharmonizationacrossdisciplines(Finley,Fukagawa2018)andontologiestorelatethediversedatatypes(Lange2007),andindependentmodelvalidation(includingnutritionorclinicaltrialswhencalledforbyrobustevidence).Trans-disciplinarymodelsmustincludethesocial,ecological,andeconomicsystemcomponentsofF&Vsystemsintheiranalyses.Thismeansintegratingsoilcharacteristicsandtheavailablenutrientstothemarketavailabilityofthecropaswellastheenvironmentalimpacts.Modellingfuturescenariosfacingthetransformationsduetoclimaticchangeandfurthersocio-economicfactorssuchasavailableinfrastructure,demandfromthepopulation,andtherequirementsofthenecessaryworkforcewillberequired.Thiscouldbeanopportunitytojoinorincorporatecurrentmodels(e.g.,startingfromalandusesuitabilitytoolsuchasCONSUSandfurtherincorporatingothermodelssuchasIMPACT,GENuS).Buildimprovedmechanistic&statistically-basedcropsimulationmodelsforF&VcropsAnopportunityexiststocreateF&VcropmodelswithsimplegenericmodelslikeCropSyst(Stockleetal.,2003),EPIC(WilliamsandSingh,1995)oranewmodelcalledSIMPLEunderdevelopmentatUniversityofFlorida,aswellasvariousstatisticalmodels(e.g.LobellandField,2011),buildingontheexperiencewithmodelsformaincrops,theliteratureandF&Vexperts.AstheseF&Vcropmodelsaresimplerinitsstructure,lessdataisrequired,comparedtomodelsformaincrops.ToapplytheseF&Vcropmodelsatcountryorglobalscale,localinformationonvarietyandcropmanagementwillneedtobesummarizedacrossscalesasrecentlydoneformega-environmentsforwheat(Gbegbelegbeetal.,2017).Expandingthemodelingintonutritionalaspectslikeprotein,iron,zinc,fiber,andvitaminswillrequiredataontheseacrossF&Vcropsandcropmanagement,andinrelationtochangingclimateandatmosphericCO2concentration.CreatingadatabasewithsuchdataandidentifyingthegapscouldbeanimportantinitialsteptowardsmodelingnutritionalaspectsinF&Vcrops.CollectingnutritionaldataforthemajorF&Vcropsandthemaincroppingsystems,

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includinglow-input(organicandagroecological)andhigh-inputfieldcrops,glasshouse,andurbanfarmingsystemswouldbecriticalformodelingthesesystems.AdvancementinhighresolutionremotesensingandsatellitedatacanfillsomeF&VdatagapsandoffernewopportunitiesforF&Vgrowthmonitoring,yieldestimation,andmappingofplantingareas(Gongetal.,2013).HighresolutionremotesensinginbothspaceandtimeiscriticaltoprovidegroundtruthofF&Vcrop,andsatellitesensorsfromNASA(e.g.MODIS,Landsat)andEuropeanSpaceAgency(e.g.Sentinelmissions),privatesector’ssensor(e.g.PlanetLabs),aswellasadvancedfusionalgorithms(e.g.Luoetal.,2018),haveprovidedrichdatafortheR&Vapplications.Advancedcloudcomputingplatforms,suchasGoogleEarthEngine,AmazonWebService,orhigh-performancecomputingfacilitiesatindividualinstitutes(e.g.NationalCenterforSupercomputingApplicationsatUniversityofIllinois)haveprovidedsophisticatedplatformstohandlebigdataandmachinelearninganalytics.Satelliteremotesensinghasdemonstratedhugevalueinmonitoringandmodelingrowcrops(Guanetal.2017;Caietal.,2018),buttheyhavebeenlessutilizedformonitoringF&V.TheseremotesensingdataplatformsandtheiranalyticscansupportthedevelopmentofstatisticalmodelsandtheF&Vmoduleinprocess-basedcropmodelstobuildpowerfultoolstoassessclimatechangeimpactsoncrops(Lobelletal.2011).However,progressdependsontheavailabilityofF&Vproductiondataatdifferentlevels(e.g.,experimental,trial,plot,field,administrativelevels).Comprehensivedatacollectionandmanagementareneededtoverifytheconnectionbetweensoilconservationpracticesandmitigationofgreenhousegasemissions.Forpredictivemodelingeffortsonlong-termtemperatureshiftsandimpactsonspecialtycrops,betterphysiologicalandyieldmodelsareneeded,whichwillrequiremorespatiallyexplicitinformationwithintheproductionregions(Rosenzweigetal.2014).Suchdatacouldcomefromprivate-publicpartnershipsordatasharingagreementswithprivatecompanies.GreaterglobalknowledgesharinginF&VfoodsystemsAglobalknowledgesharingsystemcouldassistbothpublicandprivatestakeholderstodisseminateexistingknowledgeandidentifyresearchgapswhichcouldbeaddressedtodrivefasterprogress.Forexample,theuseofconservationtillagesystemsinvegetableproductionisrareglobally,thoughthepracticeisknowntohavemultipleenvironmentalbenefitssuchasreducederosion,increasedcarbonsequestration,improvedwaterholdingcapacity,andnutrientbufferingwhichleadstoincreasedprotectionofwaterqualityandcrophealth.AsconservationsystemsarereportedtohaveahigherrateofadoptioninSouthAmericanfarmingregions(e.g.,Brazilianzero-tillfarming),eveninvegetableproduction,disseminationofknowledgeandequipmentcouldbenefitotherregionsintheGlobalNorthandSouth(Landers1999).Anotheropportunityisforpublicandprivateactors(includinggrowergroups)toidentifyspecificdataneedsatvariouspointsinthemarketingchain,developstandardsfordatacollection,andidentifyoptionsforfacilitatingaccesstodatathatcanimprovetheperformanceofthevaluechain.Importantly,futuredatacollectionandmodelingeffortsshouldincorporatetheenvironmentalandsocialimpactsofdirectorindirectlandusechangeassociatedwithF&Vagriculturalproduction,suchastheconversionofhabitatstoannualagriculture.Landusechangehasimplicationsforgreenhousegasemissions,soilquality,biodiversityloss,andmattersofsocietalequityforaffectedcommunities(landrightsandtenure,householdincome,economicopportunity,etc.).Thisshouldincludeinformationaboutconsumerchoice,marketingandeconomicsaswellasinformationaboutfoodwaste.RelevantdatasetsandexpertsforeachofthesetopicsshouldbeintegratedintothesharedknowledgebaseforF&Vsystems.

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2.INFORMATIONNEEDSTOBETTERINFORMPOLICY&INVESTMENTChallenges:Betterinformationneededtoinformpolicy&investmentforF&VsystemsFoodsystemdistortedbylackofemphasisandinvestmentonF&VcropsAsnotedabove,publicsectorinvestmentsinstaplegrains(e.g.inCGIAR)arefargreaterthanthoseinF&V(e.g.theWorldVegetableCenter).Afurtherchallengeincludesthesiloednatureoftheseveralrelevantsectorsthatinfluencethefoodsystem.Forexample,agriculturalinvestmentstendtosupporttheproductionandexpansionofmajorstaplegrains,particularlyforeconomicreturns,whilefood-baseddietaryguidelinespromoteincreasedF&Vconsumption(Popkin2011).IntheGlobalSouth,traditionalandindigenousF&Vlackbothpublicandprivatesectorinvestmentdespitetheirsuperiornutritionalandeconomicvalue(Schreinemachersetal.,2018).Instead,investmentstendtofocusonanarrowrangeofexotic,commercializedF&Vforexport,whicharegenerallyexpensivetoproduceandtopurchase,thereforerestrictingaccessforthemajorityofcitizens.F&Vinvestmentisbelowthelevelsneeded,notjustinbreeding,butalsoininfrastructure,capacity-building,andmarketingrequiredtobuildvaluechains.Lackofgovernmentoversightcanresultinunsafepesticideuseandfoodsafetyconcerns,whichultimatelyaffectpublichealth.LackofinformationhidestradeoffsamongfoodsystemcomponentsDuetothecomplexityofF&Vfoodsystems,“optimal”productionstrategiesareexcessivelychallengingtodefine,givenallofthetradeoffs–manyofwhicharehidden–amongthemanycompetingconsiderations:naturalresourceuse,distribution,foodprices,andfoodsecurityoutcomes.Rationalpoliciescanonlybedefinedandpursuedwhenhigh-qualityinformationismadeavailabletoallstakeholders–includingthoseinboththepublic-andprivate-sector.IntheabsenceofsuchsharedaccesstotheunderlyingdataandinformationonF&Vfoodsystems,itisnotpossibletodesign,implement,andmonitorrelevantpolicies–includingtrade,water,andimmigration.Opportunities:BetterdatainformsbetterF&VpoliciesandinvestmentHowtoinformaholisticandintegratedpolicyagendaforF&VsystemsPublicpolicyhasthepowertoinfluencealllevelsoftheF&Vvaluechain,therebyshiftingF&Vproductionandconsumptionpatterns.InnovationandinvestmentsintheprivatesectoralsohavethepotentialtotransformF&VfoodsystemsinwaysthatcouldsustainablyboostproductivityandenablemoreequitableF&Vconsumption.Butbothsuccessfulpoliciesandinvestmentsrequireaccurateinput.Amoreholisticandintegratedpolicyagendainformedbysuchdatacouldhelpcombatglobalmalnutritionandimprovesustainablenutritionsecurity.Asanexampleoftheopportunitiesforbetterinformingpolicy,MinistriesofAgriculturetypicallyfocusonproductionvolume,trade(exports)andfarmincomes(allonsupplyside),whereasMinistriesofHealthandEducationrarelyfocusonmalnutritionasaprincipalchallengetoovercome(Pingali,2015).Sharedaccesstohigherqualitydataandinformationacrossthepublic-andprivate-sectorwouldenablesystematicandcoordinatedconsiderationoftradeoffsthatbestalignenvironmentalandpublichealthoutcomes(Hawkesetal.,2012).Whenpolicymakersareprovidedhigherqualityinformationontheimpedimentsofpoornutritiononeducationalandhealthimprovements,actiontowardnutritionsecurityismorelikelytooccur.Forexample,China’sRuralEducationActionProgramhasmadegreatstridesinconvincing

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policymakerstoinvestinimprovednutritionwithevidencefromyearsofrandomizedcontroltrialsonnutrition-cognitivedevelopment-educationinteractions(FSE,2018).Suchdatahavethepowertobreakdownpoliticalsilos,resultinginlowerhealthcostsandimprovededucationalachievementacrossglobalpopulations(Naylor2014).Small-scalecasestudiesonbehavioralinterventionswouldbealogicalwaytotesthypothesesbeforepursuingpopulation-levelinterventions.ExamplesworthyofconsiderationincludepurchasingpoliciestargetingF&V,taxes/incentives,worksitewellnessprogramsforhealthyeating,andschoolfoodprocurementprograms,reducingcostandincreasingtasteandconvenience.Data-enabledinvestmentsinF&VfoodsystemsBetterdataonthefulldiversityofF&Vspeciesandvarietiescanleadtomoreeffectiveinvestment–includingcropsofcurrentcommercialinterestaswellaswildandtraditionalspecies.IntheGlobalSouth,investmentinprocessingandpackagingtopreservequalityandtoextendshelflifewillbecriticaltotranslocatingruralproductstocityenvironments.Aninitialstepinthisdirectionwouldinvolvetheconstructionandmaintenanceofruralprocessingplantsanddistributionhubstoreducepost-harvestlossesinhighlyperishableF&V.Datacanalsoinformadditionalpointsofpotentialintervention,suchasfinancialinclusionprogramstargetingwomenandyouthinvolvementinsustainableF&Vproduction,educationandadvertisingcampaignsfordietarybehaviorchange,institutionalF&Vgardensandotherhealthyeatingprogramming,alongsideschoolfeedingprogramsandhospitalmenusthatemphasizeF&Vconsumption.3.PRODUCTION(FARMERS,FARMINGPRACTICES,ANDSUPPLY)Challenges:CurrentF&VproductionsystempropertiesCurrentF&VproductionsystemsareenvironmentallyunsustainableTheglobalfoodsystem,andparticularlyglobalF&Vproduction,cannotbesustainedinitscurrentstate,duetocontinuingnetdegradationandcontaminationoftheresourcebaseuponwhichitrelies.F&Vsystemsgrowninmonoculture,whicharefrequentlylocatedinarid/semi-aridregions,tendtodemandhighratesofirrigationandpesticideapplicationsthatreducewaterresourceavailabilityandecosystembiodiversityovertimethroughnumerouspathways(Shennan2008).Inaddition,conventionalsystemscanbeextractiveanddiminishsoilfertility,includingsoilorganiccarbon(C)andNfractionsinorganicmatter(Drinkwateretal.1998).Extremelylowbiodiversityenvironments—asingleF&Vspeciesacrossalargefarm,forinstance—areknowntohavesignificantlyreducedlevelsofimportantecosystemfunctions,suchasinternalnutrient(e.g.,C,N,phosphorus(P))cyclingandretention,productivity,andmicrobialactivityandabundance(Zaketal.2003,Waggetal.2014).ConsideringtheimpactsoftheseecosystemfunctionsandtheirassociatedprocessesonthequantityandqualityofF&Vproducedwithinthosesystems(Iversonetal.2014,Lester&Saftner2011),itisessentialtoshiftproductionpracticestobuildormaintainsoilnutrientpoolsandbioticcommunitiestosustainF&Vsystemsmovingforward.IncreasingF&Vconsumptionmustalsoreduceoroptimizeimpactstoecosystemstability,resilience,andsocioculturalwellbeing(Gustafsonetal.,2016).Indeed,agricultureaccountsfor70%offreshwaterwithdrawals(FAO,2018a),foodproductionisprojectedtodrive70%ofthefuturelossofterrestrialbiodiversity(CBD,2014),andanestimated45%ofallF&V,roots,and

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tubersarewasted(FAO,2018b).Landuseefficiencyandchange,greenhousegasemissions,soilqualityanddegradation,wateruseandquality,andenergyuseareadditionalenvironmentalsustainabilitymetricsofinterest.Variationinhydrologic,soil,andclimacticconditionsinF&Vproduction,inadditiontovariationinagriculturalmanagementsystems,canresultinvariablenaturalresourcerequirements,risks(theWWFWaterRiskFilter,2018)andimpacts,asdemonstratedforwaterresourcesviawaterfootprintanalyses,(Hess&Sutcliffe,2018)andothertools.F&Vproductionisoverlydependentonproductioninsemi-aridregionswithscarcewaterWhilstF&Vareproducedinmanypartsoftheworldonsmallfarmsandhomegardens,globaltradeinF&Visincreasinglyprovidingaricherdiversityofdietsandincreasedavailabilityofout-of-seasonproduce.ThisshouldbebeneficialfordietsinthosecountriesthatimportF&V.Similarly,developmentofexportmarketscanbringvaluableincometoproducingregions,stimulatingthedomesticeconomyandboostinglocalfoodsecurity.However,throughoftencomplexsupplychains,globaltradeinF&VcanresultintherelocationofenvironmentalimpactsofF&Vconsumptiontodistantlocations.Agricultureisthemainuseroffreshwaterwithdrawalsworldwide(>70%)andisaconsumptivewateruse(Westetal.2014).Large-scalecommercialF&Vproductiontendstobeconcentratedinlocationsthathavelowrainfallandthereforerelyheavilyonirrigationtoachievehigh,reliableyieldsofhigh-qualityF&V.Ashigh-temperature,lowrainfalllocations,theyareoftenalso‘water-scarce,’inthattheavailablewaterresourcesdonotmeettheyear-roundneedsofdomesticwateruse,agriculture,andindustrywhilemaintainingecologicalintegrity(Hess&Sutcliffe,2018),resultinginover-exploitationofsurfaceandgroundwaterresources,reducedwateravailabilitytovulnerablesectorsandnaturalresourcedegradation(e.g.,groundwaterdepletionandsalinization).Relianceonstressedwaterresourcesincreasesthevulnerabilityofproducingregionstowatershortagesduringdrought.Manyoftheworld’smajorF&Vproducingregionshaveseenrecentsignificantdroughts(e.g.,California,Israel,Spain,SouthAfrica)andareprojectedtoseeincreasedriskofdroughtinthefuture.AnotherconsiderationinareasdependentondesalinationisthereportofreducedmineralssuchasmagnesiuminF&Vraisedinbedsirrigatedwithwaterfromdesalinationplants(Sharar,2018personalcommunication).TheGlobalSouthlacksproductionsupportandsupplychaininfrastructureF&VproductionintheGlobalSouthisfrequentlylimitedbyaccesstocost-effectivenutrientinputs(throughfertilizersoruseoflegumes,compost,andmanure),high-qualityseeds,andpestanddiseasecontrolstrategiesforthegrowingandpost-harvestperiods.Agriculturallaboralsolimitsexpandedproduction,asmechanizedsystemsarerare,andF&Vcropstendtobelabor-intensive.BetterunderstandingisneededontodegreetowhichincreasedpublicsectorsupportwouldassistfarmersintransitiontoF&Vproductionfromothercrops,orfromconventionaltoagroecologicalproduction.AnothercriticalfactorassociatedwithlaborinF&Vproductionsystemsistheneedtoensurethatsocialequityissues(e.g.humanrights,childlabor,etc.)aregivenfullconsiderationasbothproductivityandoverallproductionlevelsareincreased.Opportunities:ProductioninnovationsEnhanceenvironmentalsustainabilityofF&VfoodsystemsTheessentialquestiontoinsurethesustainableproductionandconsumptionofF&VishowtoincreaseF&Vproductionwhileminimizingnegativeenvironmentalimpacts.Contrarytoconventionalproductionpractices,agroecologicalmanagementaimstomaximizepositivebiotic

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interactionsandmaintainshighlevelsofbiodiversityinspaceandtimetoattainyieldsandothercomplementarygoals(Altieri1999;Shennan2008).Ecologically-basedsystemsemphasizeinternalnutrientcycling;theymanagecropstobuildsoilnutrientpoolsforplantuptakeandmicrobialimmobilization(e.g.,Tiemannetal.2015)andtoretainnitrogenandphosphorusbymaximizingtheextentandfunctionalcomplementarityoflivingcropbiomass(throughcarbonfixation)inspaceandtime(Isbelletal.2017).Ecologicalmanagement’sapproachtonutrientsupplyistocouplecarbonandnitrogeninputsthroughavarietyofnutrientsources,includingcompost,manure,andbiologicalnitrogenfixationbylegumes,andthroughthiscouplingtopairdecompositionoforganicresiduestoprimaryproduction(Blesh&Galt2017).Thisapproachalsoservestominimizeinorganicnitrogenandphosphoruspoolssubjecttolossfromtheagroecosystembyassimilatingthemintomicrobialbiomassandplanttissues(McDanieletal.2014;Vanek2011).Thereby,agroecologicalmanagementexploitsmicrobialprocessestoincreaseinternalnutrientcyclingforlong-termsoilfertility,productivity,andyieldstability(Pretty&Bharucha2014;Raseduzzaman&Jensen2017).Multiplelong-termstudieshavefoundthatagroecologicalmanagementcanincreasepoolsofsoilorganiccarbon(SOC)whilemaintainingyieldscomparabletoconventionalsystems(Drinkwateretal.1998;Marriott&Wander2006).Specificmanagementpracticesthathavebeenshowntoincreasesoilorganiccarbonandnutrient(nitrogenandphosphorus)retentioninagroecosystemsincludeincreasingthenumberofcropsinrotation(McDaniel,Grandy,etal.2014),increasingfunctionaltraitdiversityincroprotationsbyaddingperennialsandlegumecovercrops(ordiversifiedcovercropmixtures)tosimplifiedrotations(King&Blesh2018;Marriott&Wander2006;DeDeynetal.2008),andreducingoreliminatingtillage(Petersonetal.1998;Sixetal.2002).ManagingdiversityonF&Vfarmscansupportbothshort-termproductivityandlong-termsustainabilitygoals.AssuringthesustainabilityofF&Vsystemswillnecessitateafocusonmaintainingorincreasingyieldsofavarietyofnutrient-richfoods,pairedwithemphasisonimprovingsoilfertilityandwaterquantityandqualitythroughmanagement,aswellasbreedingcultivarsthatcanadapttoachangingclimateandrepairofdegradedresources.IncreaseresourceuseefficiencyinF&VfoodsystemsAsasteptowardsustainableF&Vproduction,increasedefficiencyofnutrientusecanaidinthetransitionfromhigh-inputconventionaltolow-inputagroecologicalmanagementsystems.ToincreasetheproductionofF&Vperunitland,plantbreedingandinformation-technologyenablingprecisionmanagementcanbeimportantcontributors.Globaltemperatureincreasescouldcreateopportunitiesinirrigatedlandsathigherlatitudeswherethepossibilityofmultiplecropharvestsperseasonshouldbeevaluated.Increasingthefractionofbiologicalyieldthatismarketableisalsoimportant,includingthepossibilityofsecondarymarketsforthelowerqualityF&Vthatarenotharvested.Adoptionofprecisionirrigationsystems,thatreducenon-productivewaterlosses,canalsofacilitatecustomizedapplicationofmineralnitrogenandothernutrients,whichcandramaticallyreducenitrogenpollution.Theseirrigationsystemscanalsoreducegreenhousegasemissionsandenergyuseperunitofwaterapplied.Preliminaryhigh-levelresultssuggestpotentialreductionsincertainenvironmentalimpactsforprotectedagricultureforsomecrops,butinnovationandre-useofbyproductsisstillneededtoreduceenergylosses(Stoesseletal.2012,BlankeandBurdick2005,Atallahetal.,2014).Moreresearchisneededonwhereincreasedproductionwouldbemostlikelytooccur,giventhatsupplychaininfrastructuretendstoco-locatewithareasofhighagriculturalproduction.Also,more

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researchisneededonwhatsupplychaininnovationsaremostcost-effectiveforindustryandproducerssimultaneously.4.CONSUMPTION(AVAILABILITY,ACCESS,ANDDEMAND)Challenges:CurrentcharacteristicsofF&VconsumptionHealthchallengesduetoinsufficientF&VconsumptionF&Vareamongthefewfoodgroupswithpositiveoutcomesforbothundernutrition(e.g.micronutrientdeficiencies)andovernutrition(e.g.cardiovasculardisease,overweightandobesity).Forexample,adietrichinF&Vmayreducetheprojectedincidenceofcolorectalcancer,currentlythethirdmostcommoncancerandfourthleadingcauseofcancer-relateddeathworldwide(Ferlayetal.,2012).Asmuchas90%ofallcolorectalcancerincidenceisattributeddirectlytodietaryfactorsalone(Pericleousetal.,2013).Despitecurrentunderstandingofthedetrimentsofpoornutrition,unfavorabledietarypatternsprevailastheGlobalSouthtransitionstowardsadependencyonprocessedfoods(Popkinetal.,2012).Increasingaccesstoinexpensive,caloricallydenseconveniencefoodsmaypromoteinadequateF&Vintake,whichisinverselyassociatedwithcolorectalcancerrisk.Colorectalcancerincidenceispredictedtoincrease80%by2035,whentheGlobalSouthispredictedtobearthemajorityoftheeconomicburden(Douaiheretal.,2017).Evidenceofdietarydiversitychangeoverpreviousdecadeshasshownanincreaseddiversificationofnationalfoodsuppliesworldwidewithregardtomajorstaplecereals,oils,andsugars,butnotofvegetables(Khouryetal.2014).Inadditiontodiseaseprevention,consumptionofF&Vcontributestoandenrichesdietdiversity,whichcanprovideessentialmicronutrientsthatarecriticalforvitalbodyfunctionsandprovideprotectiveeffectsagainstharmfultoxinsnaturallyfoundindiet(e.g.,aflatoxinslikeAFB1)andpathologicalprocessesthatleadtohigherriskofcardiovasculardiseases(e.g.,excesscaloricconsumption).Forexample,organosulfurcompoundsfoundingarlic(e.g.Diallylsulfideanddiallyldisulfide)havebeenshowntoprovideprotectionagainstAFB1carcinogenesisviamodulationofenzymesinvolvedinthemetabolismofAFB1(Guyonnetetal.,2002).Moreover,dietaryallicincompoundfoundingarlichavebeenfoundtohaveacardio-protectiveeffectandworkwithgutbacteriatoinhibittheconversionofL-cartininefoundinredmeatintoTrimethylamineN-oxide,acompoundthatisfoundtopromoteatherosclerosis&increaseriskofcardiovasculardiseases(Wuabetal.,2015).Widegapbetweenconsumerknowledge&consumerbehaviorTheprimaryobstacletoincreasingF&Vintakeandtoreachnutritiongoalsandreducepopulation-leveldiseaseriskisthegapbetweenconsumerknowledgeandconsumerbehavior.Thepublic’sawarenessandknowledgeaboutthehealthandevenenvironmentalbenefitsofF&Vconsumptionaresignificant.Dietaryguidancehasbeenhighlyconsistentinemphasizingthisgoal.However,consumerbehaviorisoftendrivennotbyscientificallydeterminedgoals,butbyothervalues.Articulatingandcommunicatingvalue-basedmessagesthataremotivatingforarangeofconsumerswillbekeytosuccessinmeetingsustainabledietobjectives.Anothersignificantchallengeisininterpretationofandcommunicationofcomplexinteractionsandtrade-offsamongvariousimpacts(PooreandNemecek,2018)(Perrinetal.,2014)(Rosenbaumetal.,2015).Communicationinmultiplesphereswillberequiredtoconsumers,producers,andpolicymakers,eachofwhomwillhavedifferentinformationrequirementsandabilitytointerpretthe

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complexityoftrade-offs.Potentialapproachesincludesocialmarketing,behavioraleconomicsapproaches,policiestargetingyouth(Hodderetal.,2018,ArizonaDepartmentofEducation,2018),andtechnology-basedbehaviorchangemodels(ThomsonandRavia,2011).ShiftingconsumerbehaviorandpreferencesinGlobalNorthhasdemand-sideandsustainabilityimpactsAnongoingtrendintheGlobalNorthisthatsupermarketsofferawideassortmentoffreshproducethroughouttheyearinawidevarietyofmoreandmoreprepackagedproducts.Consumerfoodpreferencesarefarfromstatic.Forthelastseveralyears,thefoodindustryhasbeennavigatingdemographicshifts,evolvingconsumerpreferencestowardhealthandwell-being,remarkabletechnologyadvancementsthatreshapeconsumermarketingandshoppingexperiences,turbulentsocio-economicandpoliticalforcesthatfurtherbifurcateandpolarizeconsumers,andarapidlychangingretailerandfoodserviceenvironment.Combined,thesedisruptiveforceshavesignificantlyimpactedhowconsumersinteractwithmarketingandpointsofpurchaseoffood,aswellastheirabilityandwillingnesstopurchasefood,particularlyinthecategoryofF&Vandotherspecialtycrops.Opportunities:InnovationsinF&Vconsumption(availability,access,anddemand)Broadengagementofallstakeholdersandacomprehensive,multi-disciplinaryapproachIFPRI(2017)projectsthatglobaldemandforfruitsandvegetableswillincreasebymorethan80%by2050(relativeto2010levels),comparedtoanincreaseofaround65%formeatand40%forcerealsandrootsandtubers.Understandingthedriversoffoodchoiceandthetaskofinducingashiftinconsumptionrequiresengagementofsocialscientists,industry,farmers/producers,andgovernmentagencies.Informinghealthcareprovidersandprovidingaclearrationaleforwhytheyshouldencourageashiftinconsumptionwillrequiretransdisciplinarydialogue.Onesizedoesnotfitall.Recommendationsshouldembraceregionalandculturaldifferences.Forexample,theemphasiscouldshifttowardsassuringaccesstoavarietyofF&Vwithoutafocusonspecificnutrientsorcompoundsinthediet.Itisalsoimportanttorecognizethatdriversforfoodmanufacturersandfoodproducersareheavilyinfluencedbyeconomics.Itwillbenecessarytocreateincentivestoassureavailabilityandaccesstoallcommunitiesregardlessofincomestatus.Applicationofsocialnetworkingandinformationexchangewithnewtechnologiesshouldenablecollectionofthenecessarydatatoconnectdisparatedisciplines.Itappearsthatthesetechnologiesshouldbeemployedtounderstandthedriversofchoiceandthebarriersthatconsumersidentifyasreasonstheyareunabletoconsumefoodsthatarepresumedtoleadtowellness.Ratherthanapproachingresearch,production,andpolicyinatop-downmanner;prioritizingneedsofthecommunityandengagingcommunitymembersinfindingsolutionswouldbemoreeffective.Aframeworktoshiftconsumptionwillneedinformationaboutevolvingsocialnorms,minimizingdisruptioninthesupplystream,sellingcompellingbenefitsandmaximizingawarenessofincreasingF&Vintake(see“shiftwheel”fromWorldResourcesInstitute,https://www.wri.org/resources/charts-graphs/shift-wheel-changing-consumer-purchasing).Consumerengagementwillhelptodrivedemandandindustrycollaborationswillbenecessarytounderstandandstrengthenmarketsignals.Systemsapproacheswillbeincreasinglyimportant:“Thebehaviorofasystemcannotbeknownjustbyknowingtheelementsofwhichthesystemismade.”(DonellaH.MeadowsThinkinginSystems).

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StrategicuseofcommunicationstoconnectwithconsumersToday’spublicinterestinsustainablefoodsystemsoffersauniqueopportunitytoframeacommunicationsstrategybasedonmeetingconsumerswheretheyare.Thereisanopportunityforthebroaderengagementofsocietyandarangeofscientistsandotherdisciplinestodefineandcraftuniqueapproachestohelpthepublicreachsustainablediet/foodsystemgoals.WhilethemessageaboutincreasingF&Vconsumptionisnotnew,theconceptofasustainablefoodsystemisrelativelynoveltoconsumersandofsignificantrelevance.Thismayopenacommunicationsstrategythatwillmeetbothhumanhealthandenvironmentalgoals.

EngagingaroundconsumervaluesandemotionsrelatedtoF&Vconsumptionisanotherpromisingapproachasfactsalonearenotenough.Giventhatafocusonhealthisnotsufficienttodrivebehaviorchange,developingabetterunderstandingofmotivationslike:increasingprideformeetingF&Vconsumptionobjectives,developingregularF&Vconsumptionhabits,associatingproduceconsumptionwithhappiness/well-being,emphasizingtheimportanceofrolemodelingforparents,etc.Alloftheseexamplesoffertwoelementsofsuccessfulcommunications:empathyandanarrative.Additionally,awiderangeofplayersneedtocollaborateonanycommunicationstrategytoeffectivelytellthestoryanddeliveractionable,resonantmessages.Enableprivate-sectorsustainabilityinitiativestocontinuetothriveManyofthelargestfoodcompaniesintheworldaretakingmeasurestoaddresssustainabilityintheirsupplychains.Investorsandretailcustomersincreasinglyseesustainabilityeffortsaskeytoreducingrisks,suchasdroughtoradverseweather,whichcandisruptcompanyperformance.Consumersincreasinglyseekoutproductswhichdiscloseingredientoriginsandproductionmethodsdeemedbeneficialordesirableforsocietyandtheenvironment.Consumersalsoviewsustainabilityeffortsiningredientproductionasaproxyforbetternutrition,evenintheabsenceofscience-basedevidence.AleaderoftheseissuesisTheSustainabilityConsortium(TSC,sustainabilityconsortium.org),aglobalmembershiporganizationwhosemembersrepresent$200Billioninannualsales.Members,includingthelargestfoodretailerintheworld,Walmart,utilizescience-basedproductcategorysustainabilityprofilesandkeyperformanceindicatorstoassesshowtomoresustainablyproducetheirproducts.AkeyfindingofTSCisthatforfoodandbeverageproducts,theagriculturesupplychainhasthemajorityofenvironmentalandsocialimpactrisksandopportunities.Infact,formostconsumer-facingcompanies,“80-90%ofthetotalend-to-endenvironmentalandsocialimpactsareembeddedintheupstreamsupplychain”(TSC,2018).IntheGlobalNorth,companieshavecometogethertoaddresstheseconcernsthroughpartnershipssuchastheStewardshipIndexforSpecialtyCrops(SISC)andtheSustainableAgricultureInitiative.AcasestudyinthiseffortisCampbellSoupCompany’sworkwithfamilyfarmsproducingitsannualprocessingtomatocrop.UsingSISCmetrics,theCampbellSustainableAgricultureProgramhasdocumentedapproximately20%reductioninthevolumeofwaterappliedpertonoftomatoproducedforthecompanyafter6years,duetotheincreasedutilizationofdripirrigationsystemsonthesefarms(http://www.campbellcsr.com/grown/interior.html#goals).IncreasesocialequityinF&VconsumptionthroughfoodliteracyInthecontextofacomplexfoodenvironment,consumerstendtorelyonsimplifiedmentalshortcuts,referredtoas“heuristiccues”tohelpthemmakedecisionsaboutpersonalfoodchoices.Bydefinition,urbanconsumersdonotregularlyinteractwithagricultureandoftenlackbasicknowledgeabouthowfoodisproducedandwhyfoodproductionpracticesmayimpacthumanand

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planetaryhealth.Theyalsofacethechallengeofhavingtomakedecisionsaboutwhattoeatinanincreasinglycomplexfoodsystem.Whileconsumerswithampledisposableincomemayopttopurchasefoodsdirectlyfromfarmerswhopracticesustainableagriculture,thecostbarriertoentryisoftentoohighforlow-incomeconsumers.Evenwhenconsumerscanaffordtoparticipateinnon-mainstreamF&Vfoodsystems,suchasthosewhoparticipateincommunity-supportedagriculture(CSA)shares,theydonotalwaysknowwhattodowiththeunfamiliarproduceitemstheyreceivefromthesubscriptionprograms,whichcanleadtowaste(Feagan&Henderson2009).Itisthereforeimportanttoconsiderunbiased,science-basedoutreachandeducationalopportunitiesthatmayempowerconsumerstomakeenvironmentallysoundfoodchoiceswithoutcompromisingoverallsocialequity.Theconceptoffoodliteracyoffersapotentiallyhelpfulframeworktobuildtheconnectionbetweenproductionandconsumptionthathelpsconsumersmakesoundfoodchoicesthatworksbestfortheirlives.Foodliteracyinterventionscantakemultipleformstomeetintendedaudience’sneeds.Fromnutritioneducationprogramsthatemphasizehomegardeningtofoodpreservationworkshopsforfoodenthusiasts,thisframeworkcanenableconsumersandfoodsystemadvocatestohelpurbandwellersre-engagewiththefoodsystemregardlessoftheirbaselineknowledge.Insteadoftakingadisease-preventionfocusedapproach,itencouragesconsumerstocontinuouslybuildontheirexistingknowledgeoffoodandempowersconsumerstotakeactionsthatcontributetobuildingmoresustainablefoodsystems.ReducefoodwasteinF&VsystemsThedeficitinglobalsupplyofF&VisexacerbatedbythehighlyperishablenatureofF&Vleadingtocombinedlosses(post-harvest)andwaste(atconsumerlevel)ofmorethan50%oftotalproduction(FAO,2018b).Greaterresearchisneededtoestimatethecostoffoodwaste,especiallyforlow-incomehouseholds;andtheenvironmentalimpactsofrepurposingfoodwasteforcompost,forexample.Industryinnovationinpackagingtoreducespoilageandalertconsumersofspoilageareneededandunderway.Finally,greaterstandardizationofdatelabels(e.g.“useby”,“bestby”,and“sellby”)areneededtopreventconsumerconfusionaboutearlyspoilageofproducts.5.SUSTAINABLEANDEQUITABLEF&VFOODSYSTEMSANDSUPPLYCHAINSChallengesandOpportunities:SystemicchangestoF&VsystemsTheprimaryultimatepurposeofagricultureistomeetthehumanneedforfoodandnutrition.However,nutritionisacomplexconcept(Raiten2017)composedofmultipleprocesses.Theseprocessesinteractwithandareimpactedbythehealthstatusoftheindividualaswellasthatoftheexternalenvironment.Theoverallfoodsystemisalsohighlycomplex(NationalResearchCouncil2015),comprisingmanyclosely-interactingcomponents.Andjustaswiththenutritionofanindividual,theoverallfoodsystemisalsoimpactedbytheexternalenvironment.Giventheirintrinsiccomplexities,simpleperturbationsofeithersystemcanproduceunanticipatedeffects–evenwheneachconsideredinisolationfromtheother.Butinreality,thesetwosystemsalsodirectlyinteractwitheachother,resultinginaninfinitudeofpossibleoutcomesfromeventheapparentlysimplestofinterventions:suchaswhenfewermotherssaytotheirchildren:“Finisheatingyourvegetables!”orajudgeordersthatarivermaynolongerbeusedforF&Virrigation,duetothepresenceofanendangeredspecies.Dataonsupply:demandratiosintheGlobalNorthandtheGlobalSouthshowthatcurrentsystem-scaledataonproductionandindividualconsumptionare

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internallyconsistent(Milleretal.,2015;Schmidhuberetal.,2018;Conradetal.,2018)andthatproductionofF&VcouldtheoreticallyincreasetomatchtheglobaldietaryneedformoreF&Vconsumption(Siegeletal.,2014).Butmanysystem-levelchallengesandquestionsremain,inordertoensurethathigherlevelsofF&Vproductivityandconsumptionareaccompaniedbyfulfillmentofthekeyimperativesidentifiedinthispositionpaper–namely,thatF&Vfoodsystemsbecomemorediverse,equitable,nutritious,resilient,andsustainable.Forinstance:HowwillchangingclimatologicalconditionsimpacttheavailabilityofF&Vinvariousregions?Inwhatwayswillshiftsingeographicproductionareasasaresultofchangingclimatesimpactworkforceavailability?Howcanweutilizethepowerfulrolethatwomenplayashouseholddecisionmakerstoencouragebetternutrition,withoutburdeningtheminthatrole?Howdoweensuregreateraccesstofarmingtechnology,particularlyforsmallholderfarmers?Whatinformationshouldbeavailabletohelpindividualsandsocietiesmakethenecessarytradeoffsforoptimaldiets?ThereareawidevarietyofF&Vfoodsystemsworldwide,rangingfromlargecommercialoperationsfocusedonglobalandregionaltrade,tomediumandsmallfamily-runF&Vsystems,tohomegardens,tocollectionofwildF&V.TherearecountlessproductsintheglobalF&VsystemwhenoneincludesF&Vindigenoustoeachregion.Therearefew,ifany,breedersforthelatter,andthesesystemsarepoorlydefinedandclassified.AlargeshareofruralhouseholdsthroughouttheworldrelyonhomegardensforatleastsomeoftheirF&Vintake,andproducefromthesegardensisrarelycountedinagriculturalstatistics,assuchfoodsdonotentertheformalmarket.Astheglobalpopulationbecomesmoreurban,householdproductionsystemsmayplayasmallerrole,andthustradedF&Vwillbecomemoreimportant.ProducersofF&Vthroughouttheworldwilladjusttomarketopportunities,policyincentives,andresources(e.g.,water)availabilityandcost.ExperiencefrommanypartsoftheGlobalSouthshowsthatlow-incomefarmersoftenselltheirhigh-value,highly-nutritiousproductsandpurchaselowerquality,lessexpensivestarchystaplesandsugar(andsomemeat)withtheiraddedincomes.ThistrendisvisibleintheWorldBank’sLivingStandardsMeasurementStudydataandrunscountertopublicandprivateinvestmenteffortsinindigenousF&V.ThenutritionsecurityandequitydimensionsofexpandingF&Vsystemsinanurbanizingworldmeritfurtherstudyandoffersubstantialopportunitiesforinnovation.CONCLUSIONSFruitandvegetables(F&V)asafocalpointforresearchandactionprovidetremendousopportunitiestoimprovehumannutrition,foodsystemsustainability,andpotentiallyequityandeconomicopportunity.Withregardtohumannutrition,F&Vareclearlypivotaltopreventingarangeofdiet-relateddiseasesandintheoverallmaintenanceofhealthyandproductivelives.Withregardtosustainability,increasedinvestmentinF&Vprovidesopportunitiesto(re)diversifylocal,regional,andglobalfoodsystems,andpotentiallytoreducesoilerosionandnaturalresourceinputs.Havingsignificantimpactseveninbackyard,orverysmall-scaleproduction,theyalsomayserveasincreasinglyimportantfoodsourcesintimeswhenlargerfoodsystemsaredestabilizedduetoclimatechange,tradewars,civilstrife,orothershocks.Likewise,withregardtoequityandopportunity,redesigningfoodsystemstowardmoreF&Vcanopenopportunitiesforsmallscaleproducersandmoredirect(shortvaluechain)marketing,aswellasare-diversifyingofmajorfoodsystempowerbrokers,ifdonewithaconcertedviewtowardthoseaims.

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Butallofthesepotentialopportunitiesrequirefurtherknowledgeaswellasmomentumtoactinmuchbroaderandmorecoordinatedways.ThemostimportantnutritionalconstituentsinF&V;thebestwaystopreservetheminvaluechainsandmakethemavailableforabsorption;andtheirinteractionsandtheinteractionsbetweenthemandotherfoods,humangeneticdifferences,andgut,oral,andsoilmicrobiomesallrequirefurtherinvestigationtomaximizenutritionaloutcomes.Agronomic,geneticresourceandplantbreeding,andpost-harvestprocessinganddeliveryallrequireresearchwiththeaimsofgreaterandmorestableproductionanddeliveryofhigh-nutritionalvalueF&Vwiththeminimumuseofnon-renewableenergy,water,fertilizer,andpesticides,minimumloss,bothpre-andpost-harvest,andwhileincreasingqualitycontrolandfoodsafety.AndallofthismustalsobeaccomplishedwhileensuringthatF&Vremainorbecomeaffordabletoallconsumers.Withalong-termviewtowardsustainablefoodsystems,furthereffortsareneededtoinvestigate,conserve,breed,andcelebratethewiderdiversityofF&Vthatstillpersistaroundtheworldbutwhicharedisappearingorbecomingmoremarginalizedindiets,andarecertainlynotcontributingasmuchastheycouldtoglobalnutrition.Finally,foodsystemsinmostregions,smallandlarge,willrequiremajorredesigniftheyaretoprovidesignificantlymoreopportunitiestodisenfranchisedproducers,farmworkers,andotheractorsinfoodsystems.AcknowledgementsTheauthorswishtogivetheirsincerethankstothetwoco-hostorganizations,theAspenGlobalChangeInstituteandtheKeystonePolicyCenter,aswellastheseveralco-sponsors:UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture,UniversityofIllinois,BASF,SyngentaFoundationforSustainableAgriculture,ILSIResearchFoundation,UniversityofArkansas,UniversityofFlorida,andWashingtonStateUniversity.

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