Sure-fire socio-demographics:10 Insights on where to grow business

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Growth in working populationx

Gains in productivity

Countries with young, expanding labour forces, which are becoming increasingly

efficient, will show the largest GDP growth

Growth formula

The scale of the opportunity for growth in productivity is much larger in developing countries than developed ones

productivity gains

The 4 BRIC countries are home to 3 billionChina and India respectively have 4 times US populationBrazil (180Mn) and Russia (140Mn) are both bigger than

Japan (125Mn)

BRICs: size matters

An estimated 260 million people could relocate to urban areas in China over the medium term: Chinese

urbanisation may only be half way through

Rural areas may become devoid of young people

BRICs: urbanisation matters

where will growth come from?

Consumption in the BRICs will rise fourfold 2010-2025At $16 trillion spending will be bigger than the US marketChina alone, on conservative estimates, sees $10 trillion

of consumer expenditure by 2025 (source: Goldman Sachs)

effects on consumption

By 2020, 70% of all cars will bebought by BRICs

By 2050, Chinese could own 2X as many cars as Americans

Other industries where BRICs will dominate: luxury goods, travel, tourism

where the action is

the new hierarchySize of Economy, 2010

USChinaJapan

GermanyFrance

UKBrazil

Size of Economy, 2050

USChinaIndia

JapanBrazil

RussiaUK

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, 2010 Source:Goldman Sachs forecasts

The next 11 largest populated emerging economies with strong growth potential

BangladeshEgypt

IndonesiaIran

MexicoNigeria

PakistanPhilippinesSouth Korea

TurkeyVietnam

(source: Goldman Sachs)

weighing the next 11

By 2045, American 'minorities' will be in the majorityIn 2010, O&M formed OgilvyCulture to specialise in cross-

cultural marketingBrazil has a highly integrated ethnic population

North Korea, Iceland and Japan are some of the most ethnically pure nations

growth in ethnic mix

Acknowledgement Many of these insights are drawn from the

excellent new book, 'The Growth Map' by Jim O'Neill

Working with Future Coaching Conference speeches on major trends - accelerating

management awareness Workshopping trends – evaluating impacts on

businesses or brands; future-proofing existing offers Brainstorming sessions – innovating to harness growth Reports on the future of sectors or industries –

jumping ahead of the curve; achieving thought leadership; building in longevity

Training for consumer insight teams – boosting internal futuring capabilities

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