The Future for FisheriesThe Future for FisheriesBy: Daniel PaulyBy: Daniel Pauly

Jackie AlderJackie AlderElena BennetElena Bennet

Villy ChristensenVilly ChristensenPeter TyedmersPeter Tyedmers

Reg WatsonReg Watson

Summary: Hai NguyenSummary: Hai Nguyen

Critique: Chris HeislerCritique: Chris Heisler

BackgroundBackground

• Overfishing is causing a decrease in Overfishing is causing a decrease in certain species population and a certain species population and a decrease in the amount of fish decrease in the amount of fish caught globallycaught globally

• Globally the amount of fish caught is Globally the amount of fish caught is declining at a rate of 500,000 metric declining at a rate of 500,000 metric tons a yeartons a year

Global Decline in Fish Global Decline in Fish LandingsLandings

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

80000000

90000000

1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200

year

met

ric t

ons

of f

ish

Graph of declining mean trophic level Graph of declining mean trophic level in the in the Atlantic Atlantic

Mean trophic levelMean trophic level

• Declining mean trophic level Declining mean trophic level indicates that larger fish that are indicates that larger fish that are higher in the food chain are higher in the food chain are becoming less abundant in Atlanticbecoming less abundant in Atlantic

Reduction of size of Yellowfin TunaReduction of size of Yellowfin TunaBy Ward and Myers of Dalhousie By Ward and Myers of Dalhousie UniversityUniversity

Contributions to overfishingContributions to overfishing

• Industrial fisheries depend on cheap Industrial fisheries depend on cheap fossil fuels that seem to be abundantfossil fuels that seem to be abundant

• Incorrect perception of fisheries as Incorrect perception of fisheries as local and species-specificlocal and species-specific– Overfishing of one species of fish will Overfishing of one species of fish will

have a domino effect on their predatorhave a domino effect on their predator

Fuel FactorFuel Factor

• Fossil fuels are declining causing it to Fossil fuels are declining causing it to become more expensivebecome more expensive– Energy extensive fisheries will no longer Energy extensive fisheries will no longer

be able to operate (deep sea bottom be able to operate (deep sea bottom trawlings)trawlings)• Increased human consumption of fish that Increased human consumption of fish that

can be caught in shallow watercan be caught in shallow water

Use of scenarios to predict Use of scenarios to predict future of fishingfuture of fishing

• Scenarios are sets of coherent, Scenarios are sets of coherent, plausible stories designed to address plausible stories designed to address complex questions of the futurecomplex questions of the future

• Scenarios by United Nations Scenarios by United Nations Environment ProgrammeEnvironment Programme

ScenariosScenarios

• Market FirstMarket First

• Security FirstSecurity First

• Policy FirstPolicy First

• Sustainability FirstSustainability First

Market First ScenarioMarket First Scenario

• Market considerations shape Market considerations shape environmental policyenvironmental policy

• Could lead to ending use of fuel Could lead to ending use of fuel guzzling distant water fleets and lead guzzling distant water fleets and lead to a resurgence of small scale fleets to a resurgence of small scale fleets deploying energy efficient fixed deploying energy efficient fixed gearsgears

• Would allow emergence of quasi Would allow emergence of quasi marine reserves (offshore)marine reserves (offshore)

Security First ScenarioSecurity First Scenario• Conflicts and inequality lead to strong Conflicts and inequality lead to strong

socioeconomic boundaries between rich socioeconomic boundaries between rich and poorand poor

• Would eliminate fish from the markets of Would eliminate fish from the markets of countries still developing in 2050countries still developing in 2050

• Would increase exports of polluting Would increase exports of polluting technologies to poorer countriestechnologies to poorer countries– Causes a negative impact on the marine Causes a negative impact on the marine

fisheries in the host countryfisheries in the host country• Results in increasing fishing effort, decline Results in increasing fishing effort, decline

in catches, and large impact in biodiversityin catches, and large impact in biodiversity

Policy First ScenarioPolicy First Scenario

• Range of actions is undertaken by Range of actions is undertaken by government to balance social equity government to balance social equity and environmental concernsand environmental concerns

• Proposes a new Department of the Proposes a new Department of the Ocean and regional Ecosystem Ocean and regional Ecosystem Councils and reform to the Fisheries Councils and reform to the Fisheries Management CouncilManagement Council– Government could make policy to control Government could make policy to control

fishing instead of self interest partiesfishing instead of self interest parties

Policy First Scenario Cont.Policy First Scenario Cont.

• Coordinating world wide reform by Coordinating world wide reform by reducing fishing effort, creating reducing fishing effort, creating marine reserve networks, and control marine reserve networks, and control marine pollution could reduce the marine pollution could reduce the risk of extinction of many speciesrisk of extinction of many species

Sustainability First ScenarioSustainability First Scenario

• Requires a value system change, Requires a value system change, favoring the environmentfavoring the environment

• Involves creating networks of marine Involves creating networks of marine reserves and careful monitoring and reserves and careful monitoring and rebuilding of stocksrebuilding of stocks

• Requires 20% to 30% reduction of Requires 20% to 30% reduction of current fishing and change of target current fishing and change of target fish from large top predators to small fish from large top predators to small prey species prey species

ConclusionConclusion

• Current rates of fishing is causing Current rates of fishing is causing average sizes of fish to decrease and average sizes of fish to decrease and putting some species on the edge of putting some species on the edge of extinctionextinction

• Energy to power fishing boats is Energy to power fishing boats is decreasing causing shift of species decreasing causing shift of species being caughtbeing caught

• There are four scenarios that could There are four scenarios that could predict the future of fisheriespredict the future of fisheries

The Future of Fisheries:The Future of Fisheries:The CritiqueThe Critique

• Initial ImpressionsInitial Impressions– It was a well written report with a wealth of It was a well written report with a wealth of

information.information.– Mostly an informative essay written objectively.Mostly an informative essay written objectively.

• Never truly takes a stance on what is a better solution.Never truly takes a stance on what is a better solution.– He seems to take on a more holistic approach.He seems to take on a more holistic approach.

• He does not only focus on how it will affect humans.He does not only focus on how it will affect humans.– The article was mainly geared towards people The article was mainly geared towards people

who already have some knowledge in fisheries.who already have some knowledge in fisheries.– Links oil consumption to the future of fisheries, Links oil consumption to the future of fisheries,

which I had previously never thought of.which I had previously never thought of.

Scenarios for the future of Scenarios for the future of marine fisheries.marine fisheries.

• Market First TheoryMarket First Theory– He gives no history of what has happened, He gives no history of what has happened,

in the past, when the market is given free in the past, when the market is given free reign.reign.•Enron scandalEnron scandal

•California power crisisCalifornia power crisis

•Fall of the stock market due to lassez faire trade Fall of the stock market due to lassez faire trade barriers and relaxed regulations on industry.barriers and relaxed regulations on industry.

• In general industry leaders have a hard time In general industry leaders have a hard time regulating themselves.regulating themselves.

• Security First TheorySecurity First Theory

– I like that he shows that this would only I like that he shows that this would only serve to accentuate the south to north serve to accentuate the south to north trading habits trading habits •This would promote the trading of polluting This would promote the trading of polluting

technologies to poorer countries.technologies to poorer countries.

•This in turn would be harmful to the This in turn would be harmful to the environment in poorer countries.environment in poorer countries.

• Policy First TheoryPolicy First Theory– Range of actions undertaken by Range of actions undertaken by

governments to balance social equity & governments to balance social equity & environmental concerns.environmental concerns.•How does he propose that government do How does he propose that government do

this?this?– Governments in the past have worked directly Governments in the past have worked directly

against social equity and many times do not have against social equity and many times do not have the environment as their main concern.the environment as their main concern.

•What is going to bring about these changes What is going to bring about these changes to the inherent nature of many to the inherent nature of many governments.governments.

• Sustainability FirstSustainability First– Requires a value change favoring Requires a value change favoring

environmental sustainability.environmental sustainability.•How would we achieve this change?How would we achieve this change?

•Leads to a reduction in fishing effort to 20% Leads to a reduction in fishing effort to 20% to 30% of its current day levels.to 30% of its current day levels.

– This will dramatically affect low level fishermanThis will dramatically affect low level fisherman Subsidies to low level fishermanSubsidies to low level fisherman

– Morro BayMorro Bay

•People as of now are not willing to sacrifice People as of now are not willing to sacrifice much for the sake of the environment.much for the sake of the environment.

– What will cause this change in mentality?What will cause this change in mentality?

In SummationIn Summation

• The author gives a good presentation of The author gives a good presentation of the facts, without allowing his own the facts, without allowing his own personal views to obstruct the purpose personal views to obstruct the purpose of the article.of the article.

• He shows without a doubt that He shows without a doubt that something must be done about the state something must be done about the state of fisheries or we will over fish them, of fisheries or we will over fish them, depleting the fishing supply and depleting the fishing supply and destroying biodiversity. destroying biodiversity.