Successful Dispute Resolution using Acumen Fuse

Dr. Dan Patterson PMP | CEO & Founder Acumen

enterprise project analysis

! Introductions ! Fuse & forensics overview

! Case study #1: Owner/Contractor Dispute

! Case study #2: JV Dispute

January 24, 2012

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Agenda

S1: Build

S2: Critique

S3: Risk-Adjust

S4: Optimize

S5: Validate

! Project Management Software Company ! Improving CPM scheduling & analysis ! Thought leader in Analytics

Acumen: Proven Project Analytics

S1 > S5™ Framework Acumen Core Offerings

Risk Assessment Workshops

Acumen Fuse®

Software Training

•  “Planning the work” and “working the plan” ! Causes of failure

•  “Unrealistic & inadequate planning” or “Poor Execution” •  Poorly contracted terms, Misaligned expectations •  Loosely defined scope/ High degree of change

! The challenge of CAPEX projects ! Large projects are inherently complex to model ! Gantt charts/CPM tools don’t lend themselves to team insight

! The Solution: Project metric analysis & Forensics ! Pinpoint root-cause of schedule flaws & true risk exposure ! Resolution of cost/schedule/risk/performance issues through optimization ! Study of event interaction using CPM… … to understand significance of deviations from a

baseline for potential use in a legal proceeding.

! Hindsight vs. Foresight approach

January 24, 2012

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Why do Disputes Arise?

! Objective: to align plan & execution ! Planning

! Quality of schedule basis ! Realism of estimates ! Accuracy of sequence ! Risk-adjusted

! Execution ! Comparison of scenarios e.g. as planned V as built ! Windows analysis e.g. absorption of float ! Non-progress revisions – changes… ! Baseline compliance

January 24, 2012

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Forensics & Metric Analysis

Planning Forensics Framework

S1

•  Schedule Basis • Reflects latest scope/contractor

updates

S2

• Critiqued Schedule •  Structurally sound, no contingency,

sound logic

S3 • Risk-Adjusted Schedule •  Estimate uncertainty, risk events

S4 • Optimized Target Scenarios • Reduced hot spots, higher confidence

S5 •  Team Validated Scenario • Buy-in on mitigation plans

January 24, 2012

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EPA LANL URS

SAIC Shaw NASA

General Dynamics DCMA Fluor

L3 GAO Battelle

Dow Chemical ConocoPhillips NAVAIR

SRS US Navy Bechtel

! Fuse: analytics platform ! Improves schedule quality

! Insight into performance & forensics

! Fuse 360: goal-based acceleration ! Schedule Acceleration ! Decision-support

January 24, 2012

7 Introduction to Fuse Enterprise Project Analysis

Metric Analysis

Analysis Three Analysis Modules

January 24, 2012

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Metric Analysis Benefit: ! Pinpoint shortcomings ! Slice and dice About: ! 250+ metrics ! Industry Standard ! Unique-to-Fuse metrics ! Customizable

January 24, 2012

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Metric Analysis

Logic Analysis Benefit: ! Identify & remove flaws ! Simplify complexities

About: ! Recognizes multi-project

relationships

Metric Analysis

Logic Analysis

Analysis Three Analysis Modules

January 24, 2012

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Logic Analysis

Forensic Analysis Benefit:

! Schedule comparison ! Calculate variances

! Identify changes

About: ! Any attribute or field ! Any number of schedules

Metric Analysis

Logic Analysis

Forensic Analysis

Analysis Three Analysis Modules

January 24, 2012

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Forensic Analysis

As planned V Half Step V As

Built

Key is not just what changed but the impact of the change

Case Study #1 Execution Delay Dispute

! Project incurred massive schedule delays ! Disagreement as to root cause of delay

! Ongoing financial exposure was huge

! As expert witness, Acumen asked to:

1.  Determine realism of schedule(s)

2.  Give insight into highly complex plan

3.  Perform schedule risk analysis

4.  Pinpoint delay drivers (root cause)

5.  Offer acceleration scenarios

! Developed a library of core metrics to give insight into schedule basis quality

! Drivers ! Missing logic ! Constraints ! Use of Lags

! Effect ! Negative float ! Logic Density™ ! Float ratio™

January 24, 2012

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Schedule Critique

Became the basis of the 300

metrics built into Fuse

! Overarching schedule quality score ! Helped with assessing multiple versions

of the schedule ! Enabled trending of schedule quality ! Pinpointed shortcoming by contractor

January 24, 2012

16 Fuse Schedule Quality Index™

! Indicator as to the quality of logic ! Highlighted extreme schedule complexity

in early phase of execution

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Logic Density

Driving Path Analysis 18

! Pinpoint driving path(s) ! Specific Activity

! Trace forwards, backwards

! Two Activities ! Path between them

! Link visualization ! Show movement

! Highlighted breaks in the driving path!

January 24, 2012

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Additional Logic Analysis

! Pinpointed changes to plan on monthly basis ! Isolated owner of change ! Determined planned or unplanned

January 24, 2012

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Variance Analysis

! Used to determine how close a schedule was planned and executed against it’s baseline

! Measure of well the plan was being executed

! More than just date comparison ! Looked at period-compliance

January 24, 2012

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Baseline Compliance™

Compliance Scenarios

Compliance Metrics

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

100%

Looked at correlation with changes/correlation analysis

Baseline Compliance™ Analysis

! Pinpointed specific shortcomings in schedule

! Determined areas of repeated scope change

! Determined owner/driver of unplanned change

! Unique insight into true risk expousre

January 24, 2012

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Summary of Analysis

Case Study #2 Joint Venture Dispute •  Oil & gas CAPEX project •  Completion Nov 2018 (year later than JV board willing to sanction)

•  Pre-FEED already slipped by 6 months

•  Determine true first production date

•  Understand & agree P50/P75 risk exposure

•  Identify scenario to get project back to original target completion

Realism (S2) Risk exposure (S3)

Acceleration (S4)

! Hidden critical paths ! Risk Hotspots ! Risk exposure over time

January 24, 2012

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Detailed Risk Analysis

January 24, 2012

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True Risk Profile

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15

Team Perception

True Risk Exposure

Accelerated Scenario

January 24, 2012

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! Choose ! Target date ! Duration acceleration ! Best possible

! Cleansed schedule ! Specific criteria

Project Criteria Set

January 24, 2012

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! Defined series of steps ! Steps contained rules

! Duration reduction ! Calendar adjustment ! Lag reduction ! Constraint elimination

! Set priority ! Earliest/latest ! Longest ! Easiest/least resistance

! Targeted activities ! e.g. exclude procurement

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Scenario #1 Analysis Results

Schedule Acceleration Efficiency™ Example 1

! 2 day project acceleration ! requires 2 days of reduction ! Acceleration Efficiency =2/2 100%

! 2 day project acceleration ! requires 2 days of reduction ! Acceleration Efficiency=2/3 67%

January 24, 2012

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Example 2

2 day project acceleration

2 day project acceleration

2 day activity reduction 2 day activity

reduction

1 day activity reduction

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Results: Risk & Acceleration ! Balance between risk & acceleration ! Able to achieve12 month acceleration ! P50 dates reflected 10 month acceleration

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