Success lock-inThe danger of winning

2 April, 2014

Bengt-Arne Vedin Métamatique

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Success…now…… may equate with failure later

The Innovator’s Dilemma (Christensen)

A new inferior competitor takes a small niche… that turns out to grow to upheaval

Hard disk memory one Christensen example

Digital Equipment created the minicomputer category

Wang was synonymous with word processors

Intel = memory chips until Japanese onslaught

But Moore & Grove took them out of there…

…into uncharted territory: microprocessors

Some examples of disruptive innovation:

Disruptor Disruptee

Personal computers Mainframe and mini computers

Mini mills Integrated steel mills

Cellular phones Fixed line telephony

Community colleges Four-year colleges

Discount retailers Full-service department stores

Retail medical clinics Traditional doctor’s officesSource: http://www.claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/

…so eventually Carthage was lost

Hannibal beat the Romans all over Italy – impossible success including elephants over

the Pyrenees and the Alps – in Italy he was locked-in

Arthur Conan Doyle tired of writing Sherlock Holmes mysteries… … so had the detective perspire at Reichenbach… … but enthusiastic readers forced Doyle to resurrect their hero

A new company is happy for a few early, unexpected orders !

– which may mean lock-in with customers demanding adaptations, service & handholding !

preempting work on broadening the customer base

Doris Lessing wanted out of her established, expected (and admired) style

so wrote two novels under pseudonym – promptly refused by publishers

Lucien Freud, Harold Cohen two painters with fame & success

turned frustrated with the idea of continuing to produce what was expected of them !Each of them struck out in entirely new directions !– causing disappointment in some quarters

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Braque, when asked for his view on Picasso:- Oh Pablo, he used to be a good painter… nowadays he is occupied with being Picasso…

A Red Queen (Alice in Wonderland) Stalemate= Non-proprietory step forward, easily copied

:DisneyWiki

The Catalan Company infantry (Els Almogavers) helped beat back Philip le Hardi’s French Army

Then recruited to fight, again successfully, in Italy

Then their Captain, Roger de Flor, had them hired by the Bysantine emperor to fight the emperor’s enemies

After success again, the emperor had de Flor killed (so success cost him his life!)

Furious, the Catalan Company went on a rampage and fought their way down to Athens where they established a Catalan duchy, lasting almost 100 years

Trouble getting a short-term fix may create complacency !

= loss of valuable time for long term solutions to profound problems indicated by ’trouble’

Pyrrhus, king of Epirus, Greece, winning a Pyrrhic victory

”Another such victory, and I’d be done in.”

–Icarus surging upward

Hubris, a fatal affliction

Illustration: Frank Frazetta